Rerolling as BDK for next Expansion: Is it risky with how lackluster they are?

[arkanon]

Is it not true that multiple high end raiders are talking BDK/BDK for world first race and high end mythic raiding for the next (soon to be current) tier? Maybe i was misinformed?

[Raisei]

Is it not true that multiple high end raiders are talking BDK/BDK for world first race and high end mythic raiding for the next (soon to be current) tier? Maybe i was misinformed?

I doubt it very much. Unless the nerfs truely crippled Monks (which I doubt) they are still the best Tanks for raiding and people like Sco from Method will use it for the World First Race.

The only exception is if there is a boss that goes really nuts with Magic Damage, more then a Monk can survive.

This stems from the interaction us Death Knights have with Magic Damage.

Simply put, Magic is a huge weakness for most other Tanks (since many anti-magic damage talents and abilities were nerfed or outright removed after Legion, to make it more threatening) because it bypasses armor and most kinds of active mitigation only works in a reduced fashion against it.
For example Paladins can block spells, but 1) the Block needs to be successful, 2) the damage must count as targeted spell and Monk's Stagger works at a very reduced rate against Magic.

Death Knights however have a very low armor stat, making it the Tank with the lowest passive damage reduction, so Physical damage is still quite an issue for them even with Boneshield up.
But when Magic Damage is concerned the DK can more or less shine, since our Deathstrike healing is based on ALL damage taken, not just physical. Making it the one active mitigation that actually reliably counters Magic.
On top of this we can use Vampiric Blood which increases our health pool substantially and thus indirectly reduces the threat of Magic killing us. And if we are lucky there is an encounter mechanic with a Magic debuff that we can negate completely with a well-timed Anti-Magic Shield (in EP we could for example completely immune the Stun bubbles on Ashvane)

Death Knights are without a doubt the Tank at this moment that takes the most damage. But because of the low armor it is almost unimportant what type of damage we take since our main survival mechanic is healing it anyway, we just have to survive it first.
And herein lies the problem for people that want to enter the World First Race. They usually go into it undergeared, especially with the first few bosses. This increases the chances to simply be one-shot by a heavy hitting boss (take Orgozoa in EP for example, no one in the WF race would have used a DK to tank that).

Therefore it is unlikely to see many DKs in the race, unless they are going for a Combo of Purgatory and the new Cheat Death Essence to have two of those, but I would say that is unlikely.

[Saltysquidoon]

Death Knights are without a doubt the Tank at this moment that takes the most damage. But because of the low armor it is almost unimportant what type of damage we take since our main survival mechanic is healing it anyway, we just have to survive it first.
And herein lies the problem for people that want to enter the World First Race. They usually go into it undergeared, especially with the first few bosses. This increases the chances to simply be one-shot by a heavy hitting boss (take Orgozoa in EP for example, no one in the WF race would have used a DK to tank that).

Therefore it is unlikely to see many DKs in the race, unless they are going for a Combo of Purgatory and the new Cheat Death Essence to have two of those, but I would say that is unlikely.

(N.B: I don't know the state of balance because I no longer play WoW but the exact state of balance is immaterial to the greater thrust of my point. I am also in no way asserting your analysis of this patch about BDK being relegated to magic heave fights is wrong)

Your argument that blood takes more damage and is ergo never good for WF is odd. You seem to understand it doesn't matter that BDK takes the most damage while still imputing that its the reason they aren't viable.
Damage on a tank only matters in three circumstances:
1. It costs healers mana, DK's spike they always have its fundamental to how they tank at the WF level you aren't going to have healers panicking and trying to top a DK off after every swing;
2. It costs you a CD when it wouldn't cost another class, this is a patch by patch balance issue; and;
3. It kills you; Admittedly this is a bigger issue for a spiking tank then say a monk (because lmao stagger) but again this is a balance issue that changes expansion to expansion and patch by patch.

Before DK's existed and before blood was the dominant and later only tanking spec for DKs people still used bears, sometimes bears were even the best tanks, taking the most damage doesn't relegate you to shit tier, you have to look at the whole package.