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  1. #1

    Harvard research shows: "peaceful protests no longer effective since 21st century"

    Research summary: "... from 2010 [onwards], the success rates of non-violent campaigns declined dramatically."

    Reason summary: "Analysts say the lack of leadership in many of these protest groups is one of the reasons it’s difficult to channel them into political representation."

    Link to full report: https://www.researchgate.net/publica...ts_on_the_Rise

    My thoughts: The report also seems to explain that western governments are becoming more violent and use more coverts ops to disrupt peaceful protests, because of lack of focused reporting by the protesters. Movements need leaders, but the use of social media and internet makes it harder for leadership and mandates of authority to be appointed.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Another interesting conclusion in the research: The more highly educated a population is the more likely they are to protest perceived injustices.

  2. #2
    I Don't Work Here Endus's Avatar
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    Peaceful protests work in essentially one of two ways;

    1> You attract attention to an issue that was going unnoticed, and that revelation shocks the public into responding. This basically no longer happens, given the glut of information on the Internet, but you can see some remnants in people in places like Hong Kong and Iran getting their suffering out to the greater world. Without an oppressive regime stifling speech, though, it basically doesn't happen.

    2> You're able to create a media frenzy through what is effectively self-violence. Hunger strikes and the like. These essentially shame the powers-that-be into action, to make the bad press go away. And the problem here is that most people just aren't willing to do this stuff till it hurts. You need to be willing to starve yourself to death. To set yourself on fire. That's what gets attention. Nothing less.

    It's difficult to even say #2 is "non-violent"; I describe it as "self-violence" for a reason. Protests used to effect change because it brought a new message to light, in a time when media coverage was rare. Now, take any issue, type it into Google, and you'll probably find three or more activist groups working on it. The messages are out there. But there's so many, and they're all valid, that everyone has to stop caring or they'll go catatonic. You can't get a huge popular upswell to take action on breast cancer, because people are already taking action on racism in policing, on climate change, on endangered species, on homelessness, on human rights abuses overseas, etc. We're all busy with our own agendas, and all those agendas matter.

  3. #3
    Scarab Lord
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    "You know what modern society needs to be more progressive? People harming each other physically with violence in the streets like the 1800s." - a 2019 leftist
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  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by TheOne01 View Post
    "You know what modern society needs to be more progressive? People harming each other physically with violence in the streets like the 1800s." - a 2019 leftist
    Research is leftist?

    I had not thought of it that way yet, but you might have a point.

  5. #5
    I Don't Work Here Endus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheOne01 View Post
    "You know what modern society needs to be more progressive? People harming each other physically with violence in the streets like the 1800s." - a 2019 leftist
    Who was making that argument?

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rochana View Post
    Research is leftist?

    I had not thought of it that way yet, but you might have a point.
    If only you could look into a mirror and see your self. If only you could hear whats coming out of your mouth.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Endus View Post
    Who was making that argument?
    The OP

    Quote Originally Posted by Rochana View Post
    Research is leftist?

    I had not thought of it that way yet, but you might have a point.
    This, as a response to my previous post is a naked endorsement of violence. They didnt refute the violence, they refuted the leftism. That literally says everything you need to hear.
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  7. #7
    The Lightbringer downnola's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rochana View Post
    My thoughts: The report also seems to explain that western governments are becoming more violent and use more coverts ops to disrupt peaceful protests, because of lack of focused reporting by the protesters. Movements need leaders, but the use of social media and internet makes it harder for leadership and mandates of authority to be appointed.
    I gave the article a quick skim and I'm not sure how you came to that understanding of the article. The study is mostly analyzing how authoritarian governments (in other words, non-open societies) are suppressing and subverting non-violent protests.

    For example,


    Precisely because of the growing effec-tiveness of nonviolent struggle, some governments have recently adopted sys-tematic strategies to undermine and contain nonviolent uprisings with much greater intentionality and coordination than in previous decades.

    For instance, Spector and Krokovic note that many Russian, Chinese, and Iranian officials increasingly see nonviolent popular uprisings as “soft coups” meant to expand Western influence and interests. Russia in particular has led a number of cooperative initiatives among other states designed to prevent “color revolutions,” which senior Russian officials deem to be a form of Western political inflitration and subversion in rival regimes. This has resulted in joint efforts to develop, systematize, and report on techniques and best practices for containing such threats among Russian, Chinese, Iranian, Venezuelan, Bela-russian, Syrian, and other national authorities. Russian authorities have even commissioned years-long research studies on ways to effectively repress such movements, with Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu explaining this pri-ority as follows: “We must understand how to prevent [color revolutions] and how to teach the younger generation so that it supported the calm and gradual development of our country.”
    This shouldn't be news to anyone who's watched the Syrian government (with the full backing of Iran and Russia) wage a merciless war on Syrians due to the Arab Spring protests. Russia has been a world wide leader in spreading misinformation and doubt into any report that would hinder Russian interests. They've built the blueprint for shutting down and weakening peaceful protests.
    Last edited by downnola; 2019-11-21 at 05:19 PM.
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  8. #8
    I Don't Work Here Endus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheOne01 View Post
    The OP
    I'll let @Rochana speak for themselves, but I certainly don't see anything in there suggesting we need more violence. You're making that up.

    This, as a response to my previous post is a naked endorsement of violence. They didnt refute the violence, they refuted the leftism. That literally says everything you need to hear.
    Nothing in that was endorsing violence, at all.

    Nothing about the research was "leftist".
    No "leftist" made the argument you clamed to be arguing against.
    The argument you're citing to justify your first response came after that first response, pointing out how silly that first response was.

  9. #9
    I am Murloc! Slacker76's Avatar
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    It's been pretty obvious to most people involved in protests.

    IMO It's mostly because of modern media. With the sub 24 hour media cycle, protests just don't get much coverage. So it's harder to build any broader interest with the public.

    The media is just more interested into cycling into the NEXT THING to grab people attention. Hence current media is really unequipped to deal with new politicians like Trump. Whose constant generations of fresh outrages, just distract people from the really important ones.


    Anyways, it's been 20 years since the Battle of Seattle this week.
    I can remember being pissed at the Anarchists smashing everything and generating bad headlines. But look at Occupy Wallstreet, the Media still found ways to mostly portray them in a negative light. "Smelly, lazy, etc"

    So these days, I find myself thinking more and more, the Anarchists' have a point. Milkshakes for everyone!

    Remembering the Battle for Seattle: Organizers Launch Project to Reflect on 20 Years of Lessons

    We were right back then ... le sigh.

  10. #10
    The Insane PC2's Avatar
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    Makes sense. Most modern movements are relatively vague and lack any kind of direct policy solution. The low hanging fruit such as "let women vote" have already been picked, largely because binary issues are the easiest.

    Protesting isn't less effective, the issues are more complex.
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  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by Rochana View Post
    Research summary: "... from 2010 [onwards], the success rates of non-violent campaigns declined dramatically."

    Reason summary: "Analysts say the lack of leadership in many of these protest groups is one of the reasons it’s difficult to channel them into political representation."

    Link to full report: https://www.researchgate.net/publica...ts_on_the_Rise

    My thoughts: The report also seems to explain that western governments are becoming more violent and use more coverts ops to disrupt peaceful protests, because of lack of focused reporting by the protesters. Movements need leaders, but the use of social media and internet makes it harder for leadership and mandates of authority to be appointed.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Another interesting conclusion in the research: The more highly educated a population is the more likely they are to protest perceived injustices.
    Only since the 21st century? It has never worked since the beginning of human civilization, except in very rare and niche scenarios. Tyrants and dictators were never ousted just because you talked them to death or off their thrones.

    Appealing to peace and martyrdom are emotional blackmail methods commonly used by authoritarian and violent actors to shame good people into not defending themselves.

    "Oh, you are not willing to just bend over and get fucked? Then you are just as violent and evil like the rest of us."

    And people actually fall for that shit.
    Last edited by PosPosPos; 2019-11-21 at 06:15 PM.
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  12. #12
    Moderator Rozz's Avatar
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    I've always had that issue with many modern movements. There is no cohesion and the message to gets warbled by too many speakers.
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  13. #13
    Maybe it's because people just don't care anymore. I mean we do go through cycles of political activity then political apathy.

  14. #14
    The Insane PC2's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PosPosPos View Post
    Only since the 21st century? It has never worked since the beginning of human civilization, except in very rare and niche scenarios. Tyrants and dictators were never ousted just because you talked them to death or off their thrones.

    Appealing to peace and martyrdom are emotional blackmail methods commonly used by authoritarian and violent actors to shame good people into not defending themselves.

    "Oh, you are not willing to just bend over and get fucked? Then you are just as violent and evil like the rest of us."

    And people actually fall for that shit.
    You are purely talking about history and not saying that this applies to liberal democracies in 2019, right? Because this sounds like a justification for violence, which there is none in modern Western society.
    Last edited by PC2; 2019-11-21 at 06:34 PM.
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  15. #15
    The Unstoppable Force Theodarzna's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rochana View Post
    Research summary: "... from 2010 [onwards], the success rates of non-violent campaigns declined dramatically."

    Reason summary: "Analysts say the lack of leadership in many of these protest groups is one of the reasons it’s difficult to channel them into political representation."

    Link to full report: https://www.researchgate.net/publica...ts_on_the_Rise

    My thoughts: The report also seems to explain that western governments are becoming more violent and use more coverts ops to disrupt peaceful protests, because of lack of focused reporting by the protesters. Movements need leaders, but the use of social media and internet makes it harder for leadership and mandates of authority to be appointed.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Another interesting conclusion in the research: The more highly educated a population is the more likely they are to protest perceived injustices.
    Leadership is tough to get also because leaders can be easily isolated, disparaged, or easily destroyed by a concerted effort by the media which is more or less an organ of the same Socio-Economic class that runs the State. Leaders are easily destroyed and without a leader movements fall apart so Leaderless movements emerged, but those suffer from general disorganization and lack of clear goals; they also can get undermined through covert ops as Occupy was.

    Protest movements in general I'd say haven't been effective for decades, I'd even push this back to the 1980's at least. Part of this is IMHO that there exists no Solidarity in a lot of modern countries like the United States, or Canada, or many European countries. There is increasingly niche interests and really no reason for John Q Public to care all that much about "Someone else's problem". Even dramatic acts like self-immolation or hunger strikes are unlikely to illicit broad support and solidarity outside of people already sympathetic to your movement. Blocking traffic largely pisses people off who know that being late to work could see them fired.

    There also exists a lack of belief in the sincerity of movements. Much of which increasingly have some sort of elite faction backing or appear astroturfed, you get the "March for our Lives" or even Greta Thunberg; can you really believe you are fighting the power when Soros cuts you a check and the Davos men line up to hear your words? I can't think of a recent protest movement that had a leader, goals, and consistency that didn't also have the problem of being not-so-subtly some Davos Mans pet project or being astroturfed. Few believe in "Color Revolutions", the Arab Spring was a disaster, and IMHO Building the wide ranging Solidarity is just impossible today.

    Also speaking specifically towards Lefty social movements, which most of them are:

    By losing its ties to the working classes or any broad majority of the population and becoming focused on causes linked with sexuality, a kind of secular . By doing so it would end up embracing an essentially individualistic and secular idea of happiness. The Left has become thoroughly the place of bourgeoisified liberalism that cosplay's as radicals or revolutionaries.

    If a society’s only ideal is the expansion of individual “well-being,” then "The Left" whom creates social movements is faced with faces two equally bad options. One is to embrace this grime situation and to compromise with the realities of late capitalism, go Neo-Liberal Rainbow Capitalism essentially. Then "The Left" must necessarily become the party of the technocratic elites--which it almost entirely has in North America and Europe--and end up pursuing power for power’s sake. This “Left” can only organize itself around two principles: trust in science and technology, and what some might call “vitalism,” or sexual liberation, which provides a psuedo-mystical bourgeois replacement of the revolution. Cast away the hammer and sickle and embrace the bondage whip and vibrator. The second option is what someone could call unrealism: dreaming the impossible, rejecting existing reality altogether, and embracing political extremism in various forms, all of which are destined for defeat mainly because it can't make anything and is stuck in the intellectual dead end that Post-Structuralists spend their idle time in a haze of what I can only assume are strong drugs and embracing the previously mentioned vitalism.

    Social movements, at least Lefty movements, can't survive in this. Neither can most righty movements either.
    Last edited by Theodarzna; 2019-11-21 at 07:33 PM.
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  16. #16
    The Unstoppable Force zenkai's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rochana View Post
    Research summary: "... from 2010 [onwards], the success rates of non-violent campaigns declined dramatically."

    Reason summary: "Analysts say the lack of leadership in many of these protest groups is one of the reasons it’s difficult to channel them into political representation."

    Link to full report: https://www.researchgate.net/publica...ts_on_the_Rise

    My thoughts: The report also seems to explain that western governments are becoming more violent and use more coverts ops to disrupt peaceful protests, because of lack of focused reporting by the protesters. Movements need leaders, but the use of social media and internet makes it harder for leadership and mandates of authority to be appointed.
    The problem is, peaceful protesting usually turns into violence then people have less sympathy for the protesters
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  17. #17
    What would work better instead of standing around waving signs, potentially disrupting and annoying the very people you're trying to win over and believing your mere presence is making a difference, it would be far better to focus on educating people about the problem and what should be done about it.

    A protest of thousands is no use when ten times that number just walk on by. Anyone who cares enough about the subject is already on board, and nobody is going to join the movement because they saw a sign or a crowd of people, especially if that crowd is causing disruption to them. People aren't going to listen to you when you've pissed them off. And a government won't act because they fear it will send the message that protests and disorder can sway them.

    I think Extinction Rebellion has turned as many people away from their message as they have convinced.

    Attracting attention to a problem doesn't solve it. You need to use that energy and time to educate the apathetic and the skeptical.

  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by TheOne01 View Post
    "You know what modern society needs to be more progressive? People harming each other physically with violence in the streets like the 1800s." - a 2019 leftist
    sad but true

  19. #19
    The Insane PC2's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Connal View Post
    Great Post... I think this video you shared is great also:

    [video=youtube_share;sLS8C1K9s7w]https://youtu.be/sLS8C1K9s7w[video]

    Also, I already think it's too late to stop what's coming...

    WATCH: Anti-Semitic violence erupts at Toronto university
    https://www.thepostmillennial.com/wa...to-university/

    This started as a "protest" as well.
    What does the bolded part mean lol. Civil war? Holocaust?

    Let's try not to say anything that will get Kokolums too amped up. :S
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  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by Rochana View Post
    Research summary: "... from 2010 [onwards], the success rates of non-violent campaigns declined dramatically."

    Reason summary: "Analysts say the lack of leadership in many of these protest groups is one of the reasons it’s difficult to channel them into political representation."

    Link to full report: https://www.researchgate.net/publica...ts_on_the_Rise

    My thoughts: The report also seems to explain that western governments are becoming more violent and use more coverts ops to disrupt peaceful protests, because of lack of focused reporting by the protesters. Movements need leaders, but the use of social media and internet makes it harder for leadership and mandates of authority to be appointed.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Another interesting conclusion in the research: The more highly educated a population is the more likely they are to protest perceived injustices.
    Take a look at #BlackLivesMatter and #MeToo and how neither have leaders and weren't very successful.

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