[Breaking News] US base in Iraq struck by Iranian and Iraqi militia missiles.

[starlord]

Perhaps. That sort of intelligence isn't the sort of thing you publicly release though, for reasons that should be fairly obvious, but I will explain anyway.

Example 1) The US has a source within the IRGC who is a senior officer, and a political rival of Sulemani. This rival provided documents detailing a planned attack on a US asset in the middle east, and Sulemani's involvement in the attack. In this case the US would have access to the actual original Kuds Force documents, which is extremely hard evidence, but as very few people in Iran would have access to them, releasing the nature of the evidence would certainly lead to the compromise of that asset.

Example 2) The US installed remote monitoring devices on cell phone towers across Iraq when we were rebuilding it. The IRGC is unaware of this, and we have been listening to all their communications in Iraq for the last 3 years. We have all the audiologs, but obviously we don't want Iran to know we are doing this. Also, we don't particularly want everyone else to know we tapped an entire nations phone system.

I don't know if either of those are true, but they are certainly possible, and both are valid reasons not to release the information, as revealing even the nature of the evidence would be extremely damaging.

Like I said earlier though, it is also entirely possible such clear cut evidence does not exist, the intelligence report was patched together from the usual mess of third hand sources that together paint a convincing, but scarcely authoritative picture, and Trump took the lethal option because Fox and Friends made him frustrated that morning.

so far many of the people who have had access to the info have called it inadequate. if its that up for debate he ought to clarify in whatever way avoid compromise.

[gtempest]

On the contrary, I do not. But Europe's response to us drone striking one of the worst men in the world is extremely troubling. It really makes me question the value of the alliance... and you will recall everything I've said in support of that alliance and Europe over the last few years.

I don't expect Europe to kiss our ass or anything. But if Europe can't eve stomach the US holding Iran to account for an outrageous action (sacking our embassy and killing our contractor) in a way that is at least halfway understanding because of a fear of risk of consequence, how can we possibly hope to deter Russia, with whom the consequences are far greater.

Basically I'm starting to think we may be wasting our time with this entire alliance. Beyond just the facts of military hardware and formations and what not - the farce like Germany, a major industrial power having a couple hundred tanks total - the pathologically risk adverse policy mindset is deeply troubling. Prudence is fine. This is so much further. Europe should be very concerned that it looks both unreliable and untrust worthy to us.

i don't know. I value the alliance. But the things Trump has said about the alliance - about the unequal burden sharing, about skittishness of Europeans in conflicts, about the slowness of modernization - predate Trump and will post date him too.

Something has to change. Because of killing this rat bastard is going to cause that much of a stink, how can we count on Europe to at least have our back when we take more drastic actions against Russia or China? Which we will have to this century if the liberal world order is to remain free.

Once again an american talking about conventional weapons, especially land based equipment. Any decent strategist knows that just about any modern conflict would be a fight for air/space superiority (taking out satellites to hurt telecommunications and CnC facilities is huge)and once a side gains that ability it will almost certainly become a guerilla war, how have you guys not learned this from Iraq? Afganistan? Hell lets go right back to vietnam?
Germany and most states know their defense budgets need to go on cyber warfare, anti terrorism, early warning, intelligence, air defense etc
Russia have become masters of cyber warfare, espionage, assassination and subterfuge and thats what the european powers try and combat, tanks are almost meaningless, almost like the battleship in the pacific theater of world war 2.

[Flower Milk]

He’s already said the US will “refrain from further military action”.

https://news.yahoo.com/trump-iran-ir...164434008.html

Phew, thank god.

[Crispin]

So slight aside, Lavrov is the one Russian I respect. From people who know him, with regards to Russia's internal politics, he is reportedly fairly apolitical and not a Putin acoylyte. Consequently despite his high position, he's never been part of Putn's inner circle.

What Lavrov is though, is a patriot. That's been made clear over the past 20 years. Not only is he an excellent diplomat that many US diplomats respect... even admire in a way due to his historic tenure... he is truly motivated by a love of country. And while he fights dirty, his motivations are those of a quintessential diplomat on behalf of his country and not a Kremlin thug.

I wouldn't want to see Lavrov droned. I'd want to see him turned and hired and his talents put to work for a positive end.

But almost any other Russian official I can think of? Go nuts. Drone them to France's delight.

And Europe is less reliable than you may think it is. The constant changes in governments in Europe since the Financial crisis is no minor deal. Going between left and right and far left and far right every few years... trying every party under the sun and coalitions rising and falling.... it's never been to this degree in Europe. Europe was more politically stable than the United States for generations. And now, though Trump is a maniac, Merkel aside, US leaders are seeing changes in European leadership far more often. As I said, it's like you've all become Italy. Well not all. Some of you are still fine.

A big part of this is the populist tide that needs to be put down. They try from the left and they try from the right. A renormalization of center right and left parties will stretch out changes in power and stabilizing the political scene in the continent once again.

There's a difference on droning "any other official" and the guy who's basicly #2, I'm sure you understand that.

So there's currently 2 countries run by a far right goverments? Correct me if I'm wrong. Italy is notorious for having an erratic political scene, but that's not new. Poland and Hungary are predictable because the EU keeps them in check.

[For_The_Horde]

They would have if Clinton had been in charge, but this time our embassy got a proper response to the attack. Have you not read the news?

Honestly, what embassy are you talking about again? Is it the one that doesn't exist anywhere but in the wild imagination of republicans? The one they spent at least 10 investigations trying to prove that everything (or anything) was Hillary's fault. You realize that sending in troops and attack helicopters to attack civilians on Libyan soil is an act of war, right?

Anyways more related to the actual topic, while no Americans were killed last night it seems fairly likely at this point that the Ukrainian airliner "UR-PSR" was shot down (about two hours after missile launch) killing over a hundred people. We might not be escalating the conflict, but its not fair to say no damage was done.

http://avherald.com/h?article=4d1aea51



http://avherald.com/img/uia_b738_ur-..._200108_5a.jpg

Looks like shrapnel holes to me, which I guess could lead to "mechanical failure".

[Ianus]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/03/asia/...hnk/index.html

I am sure you think he was a very nice man.

i meant who did souleimani kill that he became a target

[zenkai]

i meant who did souleimani kill that he became a target

Are you being deliberately obtuse? I mean I linked a story and you can google other stuff about him.

[Ianus]

Are you being deliberately obtuse? I mean I linked a story and you can google other stuff about him.

sry i dont see nothing incriminating .. its same bullcrap disinformation as it was with chemical weapons.. Looks like US is mad Iran became dominant power in middle east because alliance with asad and putin

[Crispin]

Are you being deliberately obtuse? I mean I linked a story and you can google other stuff about him.

CNN tho? Why link fake news media bro?

[kail]

He’s already said the US will refrain from further military action.

https://news.yahoo.com/trump-iran-ir...164434008.html

- - - Updated - - -

Sorry, this was the actual quote from him: “The United States is ready to embrace peace with all who seek it,” he said.

This is good news. Saw his speech, he stuck to his script, and am glad to see him pump the brakes.

[Edge-]

This is good news. Saw his speech, he stuck to his script, and am glad to see him pump the brakes.

I raged at a few points (him blaming Obama for the missiles), but was pleased to see him take the de-escalation offramp that Iran provided by ensuring their strikes didn't hit US soldiers. It could have been worse, which is I guess the best thing we can say about this administrations best efforts.

[mvaliz]

He’s already said the US will refrain from further military action.

https://news.yahoo.com/trump-iran-ir...164434008.html

- - - Updated - - -

Sorry, this was the actual quote from him: “The United States is ready to embrace peace with all who seek it,” he said.

I give it less than 24 hours before Dump steals his Twitting Phone back and burps out another chestbeating threat that will include the following:

a) him complementing himself for "single handedly" ending the conflict,
b) will directly insult Iran in some way/shape/form to egg them on again,
c) have at least one vague statement ending with a "?" to plant a bullshit rumor about something involving Iran, and...
d) insult Obama.

[Grimbold21]

On the contrary, I do not. But Europe's response to us drone striking one of the worst men in the world is extremely troubling. It really makes me question the value of the alliance... and you will recall everything I've said in support of that alliance and Europe over the last few years.

I don't expect Europe to kiss our ass or anything. But if Europe can't eve stomach the US holding Iran to account for an outrageous action (sacking our embassy and killing our contractor) in a way that is at least halfway understanding because of a fear of risk of consequence, how can we possibly hope to deter Russia, with whom the consequences are far greater.

Basically I'm starting to think we may be wasting our time with this entire alliance. Beyond just the facts of military hardware and formations and what not - the farce like Germany, a major industrial power having a couple hundred tanks total - the pathologically risk adverse policy mindset is deeply troubling. Prudence is fine. This is so much further. Europe should be very concerned that it looks both unreliable and untrust worthy to us.

i don't know. I value the alliance. But the things Trump has said about the alliance - about the unequal burden sharing, about skittishness of Europeans in conflicts, about the slowness of modernization - predate Trump and will post date him too.

Something has to change. Because of killing this rat bastard is going to cause that much of a stink, how can we count on Europe to at least have our back when we take more drastic actions against Russia or China? Which we will have to this century if the liberal world order is to remain free.

Speaking from a place of complete ignorance, why would Europe even remotely support the US in this nonsense? Let alone Trump's US.

I mean, for some people the US is the bully, continuously poking on its prey and now that it shows some sign of fighting back - regardless of being for show or not - you'd like the EU to take a principled position and support the US?

[Dug]

Genuinely couldn't give a shit if Orange fuck spins a problem he caused into a political "win" for his loyal drones. No more ME wars

[Shadowferal]

I give it less than 24 hours before Dump steals his Twitting Phone back and burps out another chestbeating threat that will include the following:
a) him complementing himself for "single handedly" ending the conflict,
b) will directly insult Iran in some way/shape/form to egg them on again,
c) have at least one vague statement ending with a "?" to plant a bullshit rumor about something involving Iran, and...
d) insult Obama.

Something will coincide with this; War powers vote coming 'sooner rather than later'

House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) said Wednesday that Democrats won't dally in voting on a resolution limiting President Trump's military powers amid a heightened conflict with Iran.

The Maryland Democrat did not commit to a tentatively scheduled vote this week, but he indicated that Tuesday's strikes by Iran on Iraqi bases housing U.S. troops would not deter Democrats from seeking to rein in Trump's authority to escalate aggressions with Tehran without congressional approval.

"We're working on this, and you're going to see it as soon as we believe it is prepared to move forward," he told reporters in the Capitol. "But it's going to be sooner rather than later."

[Crispin]

If the UK struck Lavrov immediately after Sergei Skripal was poisoned, and claimed they had evidence that Lavrov directly ordered the killings, and was imminently preparing further killings of UK citizens, then yes, I would certainly expect the US to back them on that decision. Or at very least take a very hard look at the evidence UK intelligence services shared.

That said, I have no idea the quality of intelligence that led to striking Suleimani. He has been attacking US assets for a long time, but that is more a common knowledge sort of situation then hard evidence. It is possible that Trump got mad and ordered him killed based on vague intelligence. Or maybe we did have concrete evidence, I don't know. If it is the later, then I view the strike as justified, and I would very much like the EU to back us up on this. If it is the former, not so much.

I guess that says alot about the difference on the US and Europe. It's very likely that Putin ordered the poisoning of Skripal, droning him however, or Lavrov would start a war.

[ParanoiD84]

Pretty nice speech, so that's that for now not much that came to it.

[Kellhound]

How exactly? They're a country that actually has air defense systems, unlike Iraq. I'm sure enough could pose a problem for the country of course, but this isn't Iraq. Not to mention a ground offensive is just... no...


Iraq is mostly flat and low elevation while most of Iran is mountainous.

They have an air defense system that the US is capable of dealing with (Iraq had them in 1990), and there would be no need for ground forces. Air power works great for destroying things (especially ships, factories, nuclear power plants, etc.). Thankfully, Iran seems to have understood this and intentionally made a harmless display in "retaliation".

[Shadowferal]

Pretty nice speech, so that's that for now not much that came to it.

To quote myself;

Give it a day...Iran will call it even.
However if Trump does something stupid...(I suppose that's a given)

[Templar 331]

So Trump pussed out after bragging how bad we could mess up Iran. My guess one (or many) of his generals told him how much worst this conflict could be compared to Iraq and he sobered up.