Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[Gaidax]

You should be more worried about India and the likes, they have a massive population and only reported 129. They probably just dont bother testing much, and theyll end up with many millions soon.

You really should be worried about every country. Even countries that do seem to be facing it head on, still have hard time with testing capacity.

For example here we have ~250 known cases, but guys in the Ministry of Health acknowledge that there are at least triple that amount if not more, simply because they both can't test everyone and many people can carry that and not exhibit any symptoms. For example teens and such are already almost "immune" to it anyway and may not even show anything, but they still can carry and pass this shit on even in a brief time they are sick.

[PACOX]

This pandemic is certainly exposing a lot business and societal problems that needed attention.

Working class not being able to take time off or have their children at home

Unsanitary public spaces and practices

Unsanitary business practices

Busy work schedules and under appreciation of 24/7 places, blue collar/service jobs.

Weak hygienic practices among citizens

Weak adoption and utilization of IT services and practices

Unprepared local and federal governments.

Unprepared citizens, weak survival/coping skills (panic buying counts)

Disjointed medical system

The way people treat one another.

[Forogil]

It's already doubling every 3 days. So.

The rate varies and I don't see it acceleration.
Doubling every 3 days puts the peak about 1.5 months away instead.

[Onikaroshi]

No where in the US is being homeless anywhere near a death sentence. Get your head out of your ass.

Ah, yes there is, humans can't survive in the extremes some areas get to. Over 100 degrees in some areas in the summer and where I grew up -20 or lower was common during the winter

[Gorsameth]

I'd have to qoute everyone, but herd immunity is only practised by the UK and the Netherlands, and does *NOT* work.

Not in the way those 2 want.. Only way is getting vaccines, and we all know its atleast 6-18months out.

Public gatherings banned, schools closed, bars/restaurants closed, workers heavily recommended to work from home where possible. How are the Netherlands doing things differently from everyone else?
France just declared a full quarantine but that is because the hospitals in the most effected area's are already getting overloaded.

[Gaidax]

Of course, but question is when it will happen? Trying doesn't mean succeeding. Then there is issue of mass production. Without attempting to slow down virus, by the time vaccine becomes available, millions could die.

Well, that's why many governments including my own try to lock shit down and stall it as much as possible without going full martial law style. So shit is being done. I don't think there is even one government that goes like "pfft, who cares, we ain't doin' shit" about it.

We all know there won't be vaccine for a good year from now, but I do think they will find a viable treatment (as in both effective and available) that will reduce mortality rate to a minimum, then they will remove some restrictions.

We ain't going to be going to pubs this year, unless we get lucky, but I'm sure next year it will be business as usual.

[formerShandalay]

They are not.

The more correct statement is that they are not going for maximum slow-down now, they are waiting with that until they it gets worse. We will be able to see if it worked at the end of year or a bit later, but they do have people in charge with experience - and the guts to largely follow that instead of just panicking.

Hm, doesn't seem ideal to me, but mostly then it still depends on people actually being careful and not spreading it full force. If you can get them to do that, then I guess that's all right. And as long as you don't tell them they are in no kind of danger. Because they have to know what they are getting themselves into if they risk getting ill.

[TrollHunter3000]

The rate varies and I don't see it acceleration.
Doubling every 3 days puts the peak about 1.5 months away instead.

It's exponential. That means it accelerates.

[Deficineiron]

It's not like it's rocket science, the issue is the "under control" part.

Besides, it's still not clear whether this immunity is permanent or temporary.

perfectly reasonable to wonder if we get annual or periodic waves of this going forward.

that would change society and economy beyond anything I can imagine.

we are already in early chapters of our own apocalyptic novel. remains to be seen just how bad it gets for how long, and if any wars start.

[The Scourge of Azuremyst]

I don't think there is even one government that goes like "pfft, who cares, we ain't doin' shit" about it.

Trump tried that at first, and North Korea probably does it lol

[Deficineiron]

It's exponential. That means it accelerates.

in absolute numbers, yes, absolutely. rate of change, no, it will begin to slow as more and more of the population gets infected.

[Shadowferal]

It's not like it's rocket science, the issue is the "under control" part.
Besides, it's still not clear whether this immunity is permanent or temporary.

I concede the point.
Even a temporary thing is better to close the time-gap to a vaccine.

[Forogil]

Probably lower then 100% per day, but certainly higher then 10%. Italy got 20,000+ cases in 5 weeks.

That would mean (exp(log(1e4)/(5*7))-1)*100=12%, but the cases are likely at least an order of magnitude larger - so 15% increase per day instead. But it's likely slowing down now, but not enough.

since this is a very contagious disease, and it only takes rather brief contact to potentially infect someone else.

It's not very contagious. More contagious than the flu, a lot less than the measles.

[Gaidax]

Trump tried that at first, and North Korea probably does it lol

Well NK cases probably go like this anyway: 1... 0... 1... 0... 1... 0...

[TrollHunter3000]

in absolute numbers, yes, absolutely. rate of change, no, it will begin to slow as more and more of the population gets infected.

An exponential function literally has an increasing rate of change aka non-zero acceleration. It's basic calculus. x^2 is an exponential function. The derivative, or rate of change of the function is 2x. Which means as time goes on, the rate of change increases because the variable is still present. The second derivative is 2. So, a non-zero second derivative means it is accelerating.

[Gaidax]

perfectly reasonable to wonder if we get annual or periodic waves of this going forward.

that would change society and economy beyond anything I can imagine.

we are already in early chapters of our own apocalyptic novel. remains to be seen just how bad it gets for how long, and if any wars start.

Yeah, nope. Better call off you doomsayers, it ain't happening.

This thing will pass like every other one. We get this shit almost every decade to a greater or lesser extent, true it's a bit more spicy this time because of how easy it is to transmit, but all in all this won't be the world ending event. Good odds are we will be sitting in a bar cracking jokes about this next year already.

[Forogil]

It's exponential. That means it accelerates.

No, the percentage increase per day is by definition constant for an exponential function.

And that daily percentage increase is decreasing, since some are already infected, and others are taking pre-cautions, so it is in fact sub-exponential.

[Shadowferal]

Like it was posted earlier, this will be the new normal in a month or so..

[Gaidax]

I concede the point.
Even a temporary thing is better to close the time-gap to a vaccine.

Sure, I mean, it can end up like SARS where it has just simply disappeared on its own.

Who knows. The issue is uncertainty.

[Rumred]

Yeah, nope. Better call off you doomsayers, it ain't happening.

This thing will pass like every other one. We get this shit almost every decade to a greater or lesser extent, true it's a bit more spicy this time because of how easy it is to transmit, but all in all this won't be the world ending event. Good odds are we will be sitting in a bar cracking jokes about this next year already.

The issue is you mentioned in another post that we won't be going to pubs this year. If this drags on to that extent for a year I would be worried we could be in the throes of major economic depression. Many of those places can't survive a year of little to no business during that time. It would snowball from there. Yes in time things bounce back but that would take far longer.