Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[Gaidax]

Even with Levitt's optimistic approach it is going to slow growth after Easter in the US. So using those predictions as a way of saying it is all going to be alright when you are not even in full swing yet in the US is very misguided.

Here's the projection we're officially given by the Prime Minister. It mentions NY and CA. We're literally being told that existing measures are not enough.


"Citizens of Israel, you know the saying: 'Whoever saves one life, it is as if he saved the whole world'. But with the coronavirus, that saying has a second, vicious side: 'Whoever infects one person, it is as if he infected the whole world.' There is no 'as if', he truly has infected the whole world.

I want you to know the facts. The last time I spoke to you, which was only five days ago, there were 41,000 patients in Italy with 3,400 dead. Today in Italy there are almost 71,000 patients and more than 7,000 dead. On Thursday there were 18,000 patients in Spain with 831 dead. Today, a mere five days later, there are 47,000 patients in Spain and 3,400 dead. There has been a tremendous jump in the number of dead.

For these reasons, many countries, such as Britain, or states in the US such as California and New York, have decided to dramatically stiffen the restrictions they are imposing on their residents. The steps that we have taken here in Israel are today being taken all over the world; however, they are not enough because the number of patients is doubling itself every three days. In two weeks we are liable to find ourselves with thousands of patients many of whom will be in danger of death. Therefore, I am already telling you that if we do not see an immediate improvement in the trend, there will be no alternative but to impose a complete lockdown, except for essential needs such as food and medicines. This is a matter of a few days. We are making all of the requisite preparations – logistical and legal."


And here's his estimate on when this will get better:

This evening, I cannot tell you, nobody can tell you, when exactly the corona crisis will end. However, we are already starting to think about the day after. We have established a team to plan for after the crisis including the best minds in Israel, in my opinion, among the best minds in the world. The moment we are past the event, we will quickly rebuild our economy and with G-d's help we will return to normal life.


Basically, we have no estimate whatsoever when it gets better. There is no beautiful Easter or stuff like that.

[Shadowferal]

Clinical trials may begin next week for coronavirus treatments: Health official

Officials are working out final details in plans to begin clinical trials next week for a malaria drug combination that appears to hold some promise for confronting the coronavirus pandemic.

New York state Health Department officials are making arrangements to determine what patients at which hospitals will be allowed to participate in trials with hydroxychloroquine, Zithromax and chloroquine, a senior official at the department with knowledge of the plan told ABC News. The bulk of the patients are expected to be in the New York City metro area because the region has the biggest cluster of cases.

"We’re in the midst of getting info from hospitals across the state to determine interest and number of patients," the official said. "Supplies will be going out by end of week."

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced earlier this week that he was eager to get the trials started. By Tuesday, the drugs were in New York and officials were working to identify who could participate.

The plan is for officials to find coronavirus patients with moderate and severe cases whose medical histories suggest they could benefit from the drugs.

Officials don’t expect to see critical patients going from grave conditions to full recovery instantly. "We’re looking to see much more subtle measurable outcomes, including lower viral loads, shorter duration of illness," the official said.

[PhaelixWW]

Washington had a huge increase today.

+627 cases from 2580 to 3207.

That almost triples our increase from the previous day, which was already the largest increase we'd seen so far.

[anyaka21]

Well, Trump already officially declared the end of covid19 and how the usa has won a very hard fight so.... only logical next step is to re-open the whole country and get the economy back rolling, right? It's not like the virus isnt even at half point done spreading lol

and the numbers are climbing insanely rapidly to the point where we are getting extremely close to China and Italy. And really, that's because tests are finally becoming available. Thus, we are very likely to have a lot more infected than we know.

And further, the quicker you end a lot of the lockdown, the quicker it's going to respread and we'll be just that much worse off. And really, the quicker he ends this lockdown, the less chance he has of getting re-elected because it will mean people will get sick, and companies will have new provisions that will likely entail them getting some form of mandatory covid testing before they come back to work, even though most people won't be able to afford the $200-300 it's going to cost them.

And Trump is crying that we need to restart the economy, but really, do we? Other countries are pretty much putting a halt to their economies, notably Canada and Britain and taking care of their populations. China pretty much did the same, and they are now starting to restart, and they are still around. Thus, you can put a halt to it. You can put provisions in pause rent/mortgage, credit cards, utility payments, etc... Because once you get right down too it, business owners, esp small businesses, local businesses can rebound if they don't have to pay rent or utilities, etc... if they are shut down.

[Acidbaron]

The key part in that whole text is

And that is why people are so scared of the US compared to the rest of the world, because of a lack of measures and already talking about lifting them.

Yes if countries react appropriately it will be fine. But what about those that don't?

He has been downplaying this whole thing and saying it won't get bad from the start though, it is kinda his -thing- in this thread. What that is based off i don't know, even in that entire article and actually multiple by levitt or maybe he just keeps reposting the same thing.

He speaks of the importance of the measures in place and speaks about the curve flattening out for certain nations, nations like China that have suffered months under it. 3 to be exact.

[Skulltaker]

Why this Nobel laureate predicts a quicker coronavirus recovery: ‘We’re going to be fine’

(...)

The key part in that whole text is

And that is why people are so scared of the US compared to the rest of the world, because of a lack of measures and already talking about lifting them.

Yes if countries react appropriately it will be fine. But what about those that don't?

Nah. The key part of the text has been left out.


Dr. Loren Miller, a physician and infectious diseases researcher at the Lundquist Institute for Biomedical Innovation at Harbor-UCLA Medical Center, said it’s premature to draw any conclusions — either rosy or bleak — about the course the pandemic will take.

“There’s a lot of uncertainty right now,” he said. “In China they nipped it in the bud in the nick of time. In the U.S. we might have, or we might not have. We just don’t know.”

Dr. Lewitt is a very fine and honorable researcher, but he's a Chemist, and while chemical systems bear a resemblance to epidemiologic patterns, they are not the same. I'm not saying he doesn't know what he's talking about, but to call him an expert on epidemiology is a stretch at best. Please consult experts in the respective fields. My neighbour knows a lot about IT and hardware, but when I need my car fixed, I'll go to a shop, not to him.

I'd like to remember that Dr. Lewitt also said "I will be surprised if number of deaths in Israel surpasses ten, and even five now with the restrictions."

Last I checked Israel was at 8. I hope I'm wrong, but I'm guessing time will prove Dr. Lewitt wrong by Sunday.

Edit: Sorry, he's a biophysicist, his Nobel prize was in chemistry. My bad.

[Thepersona]

God help them. There's a brilliant physician or team out there that will find a way to kick this things ass.

I'm really (a bit desperately) hopeful on the current treatments trials that are running in NYC. With some luck, we'll get more much needed data. And maybe... Just maybe... a weapon to defeat this fucking plague

Didnt trials start last tuesday, @Shadowferal?

[Draco-Onis]

I'm hearing that Trump is probably going to change the social distancing guidelines tonight. I'm really hoping he doesn't, but this is the worst timeline, so...

We need to sacrifice grandpa for the wall street gods.

- - - Updated - - -

I'm really (a bit desperately) hopeful on the current treatments trials that are running in NYC. With some luck, we'll get more much needed data. And maybe... Just maybe... a weapon to defeat this fucking plague

That's pretty much our only hope in the US because Trump ain't doing shit.

[alexw]

We need to sacrifice grandpa for the wall street gods.

- - - Updated - - -



That's pretty much our only hope in the US because Trump ain't doing shit.

I'm just waiting for that south park episode.

[Acidbaron]

Here's the projection we're officially given by the Prime Minister. It mentions NY and CA. We're literally being told that existing measures are not enough.


"Citizens of Israel, you know the saying: 'Whoever saves one life, it is as if he saved the whole world'. But with the coronavirus, that saying has a second, vicious side: 'Whoever infects one person, it is as if he infected the whole world.' There is no 'as if', he truly has infected the whole world.

I want you to know the facts. The last time I spoke to you, which was only five days ago, there were 41,000 patients in Italy with 3,400 dead. Today in Italy there are almost 71,000 patients and more than 7,000 dead. On Thursday there were 18,000 patients in Spain with 831 dead. Today, a mere five days later, there are 47,000 patients in Spain and 3,400 dead. There has been a tremendous jump in the number of dead.

For these reasons, many countries, such as Britain, or states in the US such as California and New York, have decided to dramatically stiffen the restrictions they are imposing on their residents. The steps that we have taken here in Israel are today being taken all over the world; however, they are not enough because the number of patients is doubling itself every three days. In two weeks we are liable to find ourselves with thousands of patients many of whom will be in danger of death. Therefore, I am already telling you that if we do not see an immediate improvement in the trend, there will be no alternative but to impose a complete lockdown, except for essential needs such as food and medicines. This is a matter of a few days. We are making all of the requisite preparations – logistical and legal."


And here's his estimate on when this will get better:

This evening, I cannot tell you, nobody can tell you, when exactly the corona crisis will end. However, we are already starting to think about the day after. We have established a team to plan for after the crisis including the best minds in Israel, in my opinion, among the best minds in the world. The moment we are past the event, we will quickly rebuild our economy and with G-d's help we will return to normal life.


Basically, we have no estimate whatsoever when it gets better. There is no beautiful Easter or stuff like that.

Mhm, Even Levitt is not talking about that so don't know why he is being used by shadowferal as some sort of herald of good news, considering he is generally speaking of China 3 months after the start and stating the dire situation of Italy something the USA is looking to surpass with flying colours. He is right in saying at some point the infection rate will decrease as it can't keep growing at the same rate constantly but that's again months after the beginning.

People in charge are wise to stress this and not let people become complacent, as that's the danger with us doing nothing but staying at home. It can create the impression that it will all just blow over.

[Skulltaker]

Mhm, Even Levitt is not talking about that so don't know why he is being used by shadowferal as some sort of herald of good news, considering he is generally speaking of China 3 months after the start and stating the dire situation of Italy something the USA is looking to surpass with flying colours. He is right in saying at some point the infection rate will decrease as it can't keep growing at the same rate constantly but that's again months after the beginning.

People in charge are wise to stress this and not let people become complacent, as that's the danger with us doing nothing but staying at home. It can create the impression that it will all just blow over.

Because the headline sounds nice.

[Thepersona]

A little snippet (very early) on how transmisible is the disease:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....23.20039446v1

"It is interesting to note the presence of viral RNA on the floor under the bed of the patients and on the window ledges (which were not obviously used by the patient) in the hospital NBU. Airflow in NBU suites enters from the top center of the room and exits at grates near the head of the patient’s bed on either side of the room. Airflow modelling (15) has suggested that turbulent eddies may form under the patient’s bed, which may cause the observed contamination under the bed, while the dominant airflow likely carries particles away from the patient’s bed towards the edges of the room, likely passing by the windows resulting in some deposition there.

Although this study did not employ any size-fractionation techniques in order to determine the size range of SARS-CoV-2 droplets and particles, the data is suggestive that viral aerosol particles are produced by individuals that have the COVID-19 disease, even in the absence of cough. First, in the few instances where the distance between individuals in isolation and air sampling could be confidently maintained at greater than 6 ft, 2 of the 3 air samples were positive for viral RNA. Second, 66.7% of hallway air samples indicate that virus-containing particles were being transported from the rooms to the hallway during sampling activities. It is likely that the positive air samples in the hallway were cause by viral aerosol particles transported by personnel exiting the room (16,17). Finally, personal air samplers worn by sampling personnel were all positive for SARS-CoV-2, despite the absence of cough by most patients while sampling personnel were 35 present..."


This suggests a much higher R0 (and also suggest a much lower IFR). This could mean that the virus has infected way... WAY more people and most of them never developed symptoms. I cannot stress this enough. We NEED antibody testing pronto

- - - Updated - - -

Because the headline sounds nice.

Skull, you're a healthcare worker in germany, right?

You know if they're using any novel treatment (HQC, alpha-interferon, etc) as part of heroic treatment?

[Shadowferal]

I'm really (a bit desperately) hopeful on the current treatments trials that are running in NYC. With some luck, we'll get more much needed data. And maybe... Just maybe... a weapon to defeat this fucking plague

Didnt trials start last tuesday, @Shadowferal?

I believe it will begin next Tuesday. End of the month.

[Dacien]

"THIS IS RICH: The big cruise lines incorporated offshore ( @ CarnivalCruise in Panama, @ RoyalCaribbean in Liberia, @ CruiseNorwegian in Bermuda), allowing them to avoid US taxes.

But now they're worried that their offshore registrations will prevent them from getting US stimulus $."

https://twitter.com/kenvogel/status/1243263600950738944


Talk about an awkward conversation.

[Puupi]

Omfg I just noticed it's my birthday now. I had completely forgotten. Age doesn't come alone..... :S

Maybe I should cook something special on my quarantine bday.

[Thepersona]

Omfg I just noticed it's my birthday now. I had completely forgotten. Age doesn't come alone..... :S

Maybe I should cook something special on my quarantine bday.

Happy Birthday! i hope that you have a great year from this time on! Wish for this plague to dissapear, i will do that if i get to see my birthday (it's by mid april)

[Dacien]

Omfg I just noticed it's my birthday now. I had completely forgotten. Age doesn't come alone..... :S

Maybe I should cook something special on my quarantine bday.

Happy Birthantine day.

[breadisfunny]

Hopefully this virus will not lead toward WW3.

When all the western economy are going to be destroyed soon with all the negative effects around these lock downs, I wonder if all would accept that China where the virus started get their economy up and running in the near future. Hopefully this virus is the worst to come but i fear that the world balance will get destroyed and we might see the worst effects after the corona virus.

explain exactly HOW you commence a war in the middle of a pandemic when your soldiers are sick and dying?

[Crissi]

"THIS IS RICH: The big cruise lines incorporated offshore ( @ CarnivalCruise in Panama, @ RoyalCaribbean in Liberia, @ CruiseNorwegian in Bermuda), allowing them to avoid US taxes.

But now they're worried that their offshore registrations will prevent them from getting US stimulus $."

https://twitter.com/kenvogel/status/1243263600950738944


Talk about an awkward conversation.

Serves them right. Want to benefit from American money? Pay your taxes

[Thepersona]

explain exactly HOW you commence a war in the middle of a pandemic when your soldiers are sick and dying?

Spanish flu was ravaging frontlines in WW1