Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[Fincayra]

There isn't a treatment. Trump is ridiculed because hes touting something that as of yet has no scientific backing and is a hail mary. You offer hope by showing compassion and what the federal government is doing to help its citizens. You state facts, not vague hand waving gestures. He can't even tell people when they will get their stimulus money but spends an inordinate amount of time peddling unproven drugs.

It's irresponsible at best to tout this kind of shit. I personally think its criminal. The drug hes touting has very serious side effects and it will kill people if everyone just starts popping it.

So yea, keep believing "treatments" are ridiculed because its him.

ok, you're right, it's just the press looking out for the people.

Oh wait, no one called out Andrew Cuomo for talking about the drugs too.

[Thepersona]

Early estimates suggested that COVID-19 could spread to 40-70% of the global population. The Spanish Flu epidemic hit about 30% of the global population, in an era when travel was MUCH more limited, which would have helped lower infection rates relative to the modern world.

Without a vaccine, COVID-19 isn't going anywhere, so it's more a question of when, not if.

And early estimates had the rate of dead around tens of millions. That did not happen, and has a tiny chance of happening (only if, somehow, every leader on esrth suddenly becomes a moron and cancels the social distancing policies). Early models had early data. Early data becomes useless when new data contradicts said early data.

For example. Here in chile our early models said that at this date we would have 50k confirmed cases. At this moment we have around 10% that.

[Granyala]

So do you think we shouldn’t be quarantining entire counties and forcing people to stay home ?

No, I'm merely referring to individuals panicking.
I respect SARS-CoV-2 and behave accordingly in order to help flatten the curve but I don't see the point in personally panicking a.k.a.:
"ERMAGAAWD SO MANY INFECTIONS THE SKY IS FALLING! BUY ALL TEH TP!!"

BTW it's hilarious to observe all the "bandwagon" responses after yours. Not a single one understood that I was talking to one individual about him personally panicking.

[Trunksee]

This is coming from just my experience talking to people who run smaller companies in the construction trade. A lot are now getting walk offs and people just choosing not to show up to work. We have all the precautions emphasized by the CDC in place. We are getting inspections from the cities and towns we work in to make sure we are following the guidelines or we are shut down. Talking to a lot of the owners they don't know how they are going to weather this storm and come out on the other side to reemploy people if we shut down. They don't have the capital to restart up if we get shut down meaning people wont have jobs to go back to when this is over. Yet people are so short sighted thinking they will just get laid off or furloughed and have a job when this is over. A lot have just now recovered after 2008. I know one owner who has already told his guys that hes not doing 2008 again and if they get shut down hes just closing the doors unwilling to take the losses to keep guys working. Granted hes 73. I don't think people realize how hard it is for small businesses to shut down and then have to start up again.

[Thepersona]

"Yeah, people will die, but what about the economy?"

Misanthropic worship of the almighty dollar is the stupidest goddamn meme in modern society.

If the economy doesn't serve the people's welfare, it is itself a disease to be fought and destroyed. If you're raising a question of whether we have to pick between people's lives and the economy, the only ethical answer is to build an economy that does not necessitate human suffering, because the one you're backing explicitly does.

Yeah. When the battle is betweem human life and economy, the first always win.

[Granyala]

Early estimates suggested that COVID-19 could spread to 40-70% of the global population.

Yup, that's what I was referring to when I stated that most of us will be infected sooner or later.

This thing won't magically disappear just because we do a month or two of quarantine measures.

[Svifnymr]

Or did people believe that companies who made a business out of health were going to show decency during an epidemic? This is what you get if your healthcare system is unregulated and turned into the wild west. So even if you have insurance and you might end up paying a lot for your health if you get the virus you might have nobody to take care of you because private owned groups in control of ER staff are not willing to pay for more hours.

"The staffing companies said they’re responding to dropping revenue as non-coronavirus patients avoid the ER and hospitals cancel elective procedures. The companies also emphasize that they’re not cutting physicians’ hourly rates."

They're cutting hours for ER doctors because, while it may be “This is very likely the ‘calm before the storm’ of critically ill patients entering hospitals with COVID-19 symptoms. Who will be there waiting to save those lives?”, it isn't NOW. A lot of hospitals are CUTTING NOW, because they plan that they will need more people later. You don't have doctors sit around doing nothing now, then not react later.

It even specifically mentions anesthesiologists, which are mainly involved in knocking people out for procedures that are simply not happening now as "not essential". Do you want to keep these doctors standing around playing cards?

[Trunksee]

Yeah. When the battle is betweem human life and economy, the first always win.

What about when the economic collapse will in turn end up killing more than the virus. How would people today handle a 1920s type depression? I don't think very well today in a major city when this supplemental unemployment runs out in 4 months and its back to 66% of peoples pay there will be a lot of thank god we saved those people. People will turn on the government and say how did you let this happen we should have just stuck it out. Granted the majority of people in the world making decisions right now are in the High RISK category vs the young people who will really eventually pay for this.

[PhaelixWW]

I don't think people realize how hard it is for small businesses to shut down and then have to start up again.

For sure, some small businesses aren't going to survive this. Then again, other small businesses will come around after this is over.

None of this is a sign of Armageddon.

[cubby]

For sure, some small businesses aren't going to survive this. Then again, other small businesses will come around after this is over.

None of this is a sign of Armageddon.

Indeed - some might flourish where they otherwise would not have.

[Thepersona]

Yup, that's what I was referring to when I stated that most of us will be infected sooner or later.

This thing won't magically disappear just because we do a month or two of quarantine measures.

And again. Early estimates had early data. And ffs people, we should know at this day and age how hard, stupid and hopeless is to model human psychology at large, and how much it impacts the spread of this virus.

Again. If we stand by the early estimates of 40%-60% of people infected globally by this virus, we'd see tens of millions of dead. That would be bad.

[PhaelixWW]

This thing won't magically disappear just because we do a month or two of quarantine measures.

The point is that hopefully we won't have to triage ventilators, though. The level of care per patient goes up dramatically when you don't overwhelm the health care industry.

[Thepersona]

What about when the economic collapse will in turn end up killing more than the virus. How would people today handle a 1920s type depression? I don't think very well today in a major city when this supplemental unemployment runs out in 4 months and its back to 66% of peoples pay there will be a lot of thank god we saved those people. People will turn on the government and say how did you let this happen we should have just stuck it out. Granted the majority of people in the world making decisions right now are in the High RISK category vs the young people who will really eventually pay for this.

That wont happen. The 1929 collapse saw an overall decrease in mortality, not an increase. The only cause of death that went up was suicide, for obvious reasons.

[Trunksee]

"The staffing companies said they’re responding to dropping revenue as non-coronavirus patients avoid the ER and hospitals cancel elective procedures. The companies also emphasize that they’re not cutting physicians’ hourly rates."

They're cutting hours for ER doctors because, while it may be “This is very likely the ‘calm before the storm’ of critically ill patients entering hospitals with COVID-19 symptoms. Who will be there waiting to save those lives?”, it isn't NOW. A lot of hospitals are CUTTING NOW, because they plan that they will need more people later. You don't have doctors sit around doing nothing now, then not react later.

It even specifically mentions anesthesiologists, which are mainly involved in knocking people out for procedures that are simply not happening now as "not essential". Do you want to keep these doctors standing around playing cards?

This is a pretty good explanation of whats going on. My mom is a radiologist. On a normal night she would have 15 to 20 patients due to a variety of accidents and other things. With people staying home shes basically down to 4 chest xrays a night. People not going out means less car accidents, work related injuries and people afraid to go as they believe they may get covid. People frivolously go to the ER all the time for nothing but a tummy ache and the hospitals get paid. With the way things are now people aren't risking going if its minor. There just isn't the need for some of the staff that isn't directly trained to respiratory distress

[Svifnymr]

Yeah. When the battle is betweem human life and economy, the first always win.

At what rate though? Cuomo said something like "if it costs us a trillion dollars to save even one life, we'll do it", but... does anyone really think that? At what point are you done trying to keep a 95 year old with multiple illnesses alive?

Hell, in the best of times a doctor won't do a life saving operaton if the risks of complications are too severe. At what point in this current situation do we make a decision to safeguard those at risk, rather than shut down society? I'm all for reducing risks, but there has to be an exit plan. To use the "flatten the curve", at what point has the curve been flattened enough that we accept the risks? We can't do this indefinitely, so has anyone figured out a number?

[Granyala]

And again. Early estimates had early data.

The outbreak isn't over. Lets talk again about the %age that got infected in 1-3 years.
BTW: 80% of the cases are close to asymptomatic, so we will never see the actual # contracted this virus.
We'll mostly see the 20% that needed treatment and thus got registered.

- - - Updated - - -

The point is that hopefully we won't have to triage ventilators, though. The level of care per patient goes up dramatically when you don't overwhelm the health care industry.

Absolutely, which is what i wrote in my first post.

[Trunksee]

That wont happen. The 1929 collapse saw an overall decrease in mortality, not an increase. The only cause of death that went up was suicide, for obvious reasons.

Im not talking about mortality. Im talking about way of life. Life to me doesn't just mean life or death. Its how people live, their home situation, their kids, and their mental health. A lot of people are going to come out of this very mentally broken and we are not set up to handle this.

[Svifnymr]

This is a pretty good explanation of whats going on. My mom is a radiologist. On a normal night she would have 15 to 20 patients due to a variety of accidents and other things. With people staying home shes basically down to 4 chest xrays a night. People not going out means less car accidents, work related injuries and people afraid to go as they believe they may get covid. People frivolously go to the ER all the time for nothing but a tummy ache and the hospitals get paid. With the way things are now people aren't risking going if its minor. There just isn't the need for some of the staff that isn't directly trained to respiratory distress

My local paper was just covering this a few days ago, and Broward is one of the "hot spots". They're sending people on leave and stuff to prepare for the coming rush that they expect any day now, but which they have expected any day now for weeks. So the staff are not "fired", they're more "on call" and there's just no need at the moment.

[Underverse]

Especially when idiots aren't even obeying stay at home orders, so shutting down the economy basically did fuck all since the virus is still spreading potentially thanks to that. In a strange twist of fate, I get to listen to my 60 year old dad yell at his 80 year old parents about going out all the time.

The fun part is people naming all these other things that have much higher death rates and how we don't shut down the economy . They don't realize we either have mechanisms that are suppressing the deadliness of those things or are at least making them less likely to kill (aka airbags in a car) The coronavirus has no vaccine, and the treatments for it are ridiculed simply because TRUMP mentioned them. I don't know whether it was from Trump's weak stance on the virus early on, or from her own other independent bad info, but my mom up until even a few weeks ago thought the pandemic was nothing to be scared of. There's hundreds of thousands around the world currently inflicted with the virus wishing that was the case...

The 'treatments' are ridiculed because there's no evidence that they work, they have dangerous side effects with a narrow therapeutic window, and Trump is falsely selling the hype like a snake oil salesman.

More here: https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...858?via%3Dihub

[Granyala]

I'm all for reducing risks, but there has to be an exit plan. To use the "flatten the curve", at what point has the curve been flattened enough that we accept the risks? We can't do this indefinitely, so has anyone figured out a number?

Yep, that's the tough decision our leaders have to figure out. I'm sure they are deliberating this moral and economical issue as we speak and the numbers come in.

Eventually we will have to ease up in order for the economy to not collapse completely. Finding that "sweet spot" is difficult though.