Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[PhaelixWW]

How soon will everyone in your country be infected with Coronavirus, have you done the calculation using government assumptions? In the UK using an estimated infection fatality rate of 1%, a time for the virus to kill of 3 weeks, and the theory that the number infected doubles every 3 days we can predict when everyone in a nation is infected and we can all go back to watching Eastenders on TV or going down the pub.

We have reached a total of 9000 deaths today here which means 3 weeks ago 900,000 were infected so today right now everyone was already infected by yesterday ish, or the day before in the UK.

Isn't the lockdown, now we all have it, pointless? Or are my calculations wrong...

Who says you're doubling every 3 days?

[dribbles]

Who says you're doubling every 3 days?

Supposedly it's somewhere between 2 to 5 days for most countries.

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

The grey lines show trajectories for a doubling time of 2 days, 3 days, 5 days and 10 days. Countries that follow a steeper rise have seen a doubling time faster than that.

[Volatilis]

501k cases here in the us now.

do 60% of americans still agree with how the orange sultan is dealing with this?

because i dont know which stat is more horrifying.

[Benggaul]

do 60% of americans still agree with how the orange sultan is dealing with this?

because i dont know which stat is more horrifying.

Well, it was never 60% and the last poll I saw was somewhere along the lines of 45 and falling. And most of those don't realize that Trump has done fuck all and it's really down to state-level government.

[Volatilis]

Well, it was never 60% and the last poll I saw was somewhere along the lines of 45 and falling. And most of those don't realize that Trump has done fuck all and it's really down to state-level government.

Ah of course. 50 States and you're bound to get some good mayors and governors among the trash Yes men/woman who actually enforce rules.

And then you have Trump taking all the credit on prime time news. That makes more sense, ty.

[PhaelixWW]

Supposedly it's somewhere between 2 to 5 days for most countries.

Cases right now are doubling every 8 days in the UK. So even if your other estimates were all true, you'd only be at about 6m, or 9%, infected so far.

[Zantos]

Most times I'd agree. (call it "Unenjoyment" here). But the job loss for many, if not all in this situation aren't permanent. And having an additional $600 on top of what's being paid out isn't bad at all.

I'm gonna have to go on that soon myself. Within a week or 2. I am hoping its at least close to $600 a week so it matches what I make. Anyone else who makes over $2,400 a month is still gonna be sol. It may help most, I know it will me. I only hope that either I get back to work before it ends or it gets extended.

This is what the system should be doing. This is what its made for. To hold you over until you can get another job. The previous amounts were a disgrace and wouldn't even manage that.

The pandemic is highlighting a lot of issues with most of our systems. I only hope they aim to fix those issues after the fact.

[dribbles]

Cases right now are doubling every 8 days in the UK. So even if your other estimates were all true, you'd only be at about 6m, or 9%, infected so far.

Well it was reported on Sky News an hour ago that we have flattened the curve a bit and UK cases are doubling right now every 5 days. But accepting your 8 days and 6m as true, that means in another 3.5 doublings, or 27 ish days from now 100% the UK are infected.

If Sky news are right and your 6m figure is right we reach that point in just over 2 weeks.

Still makes the lockdown seem pointless.

[Crissi]

Well it was reported on Sky News an hour ago that we have flattened the curve a bit and UK cases are doubling right now every 5 days. But accepting your 8 days and 6m as true, that means in another 3.5 doublings, or 27 ish days from now 100% the UK are infected.

If Sky news are right and your 6m figure is right we reach that point in just over 2 weeks.

Still makes the lockdown seem pointless.

Not pointless when the point is to not overwhelm the hospitals. Lifting the lock-down too early risks increasing the height of the curve again.

[Benggaul]

Still makes the lockdown seem pointless.

I know you're just a disingenuous shit from your posts in the Brexit thread, but I'll explain it simply here for you to understand:

The point of a lockdown isn't to prevent people from getting sick. It's to keep everyone from getting sick at the same time, overburdening the healthcare system resulting in more deaths.

Most of the population of every country will eventually contract the virus. Slowing down the rate at which that number "doubles" via lockdowns, social distancing and the like means that there's more time to increase healthcare capacity, cycle recovered cases out (and cycle healthcare personnel for that matter because they are worn thin) and work on better ways of treating those who become critically ill. At the beginning of the "double" rate was 1-2 days. In countries where this has been taken seriously they've stretched it out to 10-15 days at least--enough time for those who need medical care to get it and get back out to leave a bed for the next person who needs it. This is the goal most countries are, ideally, aiming for. Some of them, however, have fucked it up royally from the start and have a hard time ahead of them before it starts to get better.

- - - Updated - - -

Ah of course. 50 States and you're bound to get some good mayors and governors among the trash Yes men/woman who actually enforce rules.

And then you have Trump taking all the credit on prime time news. That makes more sense, ty.

California and New York were among the first to get hardest hit and their respective governors have had to do everything themselves (without meaningful federal aid) to come to grips with it. California is faring a bit better than New York at this point, but both have done very well in the face of it. Florida, however, looks like it's going to explode with cases within the next week or so given how horrible the leadership has been there. Trump's administration has essentially told the States that they have to fend for themselves--and then outbids them or outright confiscates medical equipment they order.

When the US finally comes through this out the other side, it will be due to the efforts of local government, because all Trump has done is tell lies on TV and then brag about the ratings. Unfortunately most of that 45% who think he's done a good job are people who don't know or don't care to know that he's done nothing at all.

[breadisfunny]

I know you're just a disingenuous shit from your posts in the Brexit thread, but I'll explain it simply here for you to understand:

The point of a lockdown isn't to prevent people from getting sick. It's to keep everyone from getting sick at the same time, overburdening the healthcare system resulting in more deaths.

Most of the population of every country will eventually contract the virus. Slowing down the rate at which that number "doubles" via lockdowns, social distancing and the like means that there's more time to increase healthcare capacity, cycle recovered cases out (and cycle healthcare personnel for that matter because they are worn thin) and work on better ways of treating those who become critically ill. At the beginning of the "double" rate was 1-2 days. In countries where this has been taken seriously they've stretched it out to 10-15 days at least--enough time for those who need medical care to get it and get back out to leave a bed for the next person who needs it. This is the goal most countries are, ideally, aiming for. Some of them, however, have fucked it up royally from the start and have a hard time ahead of them before it starts to get better.

- - - Updated - - -



California and New York were among the first to get hardest hit and their respective governors have had to do everything themselves (without meaningful federal aid) to come to grips with it. California is faring a bit better than New York at this point, but both have done very well in the face of it. Florida, however, looks like it's going to explode with cases within the next week or so given how horrible the leadership has been there. Trump's administration has essentially told the States that they have to fend for themselves--and then outbids them or outright confiscates medical equipment they order.

When the US finally comes through this out the other side, it will be due to the efforts of local government, because all Trump has done is tell lies on TV and then brag about the ratings. Unfortunately most of that 45% who think he's done a good job are people who don't know or don't care to know that he's done nothing at all.

i wonder if trump and friends are using this to sway people over to the conservative viewpoint of small government by trying to make them think big government doesn't work....or maybe im overthinking this.

[PhaelixWW]

Well it was reported on Sky News an hour ago that we have flattened the curve a bit and UK cases are doubling right now every 5 days. But accepting your 8 days and 6m as true, that means in another 3.5 doublings, or 27 ish days from now 100% the UK are infected.

My source is the same as your source.

[dribbles]

I know you're just a disingenuous shit from your posts in the Brexit thread, but I'll explain it simply here for you to understand:

The point of a lockdown isn't to prevent people from getting sick. It's to keep everyone from getting sick at the same time, overburdening the healthcare system resulting in more deaths.

Most of the population of every country will eventually contract the virus. Slowing down the rate at which that number "doubles" via lockdowns, social distancing and the like means that there's more time to increase healthcare capacity, cycle recovered cases out (and cycle healthcare personnel for that matter because they are worn thin) and work on better ways of treating those who become critically ill. At the beginning of the "double" rate was 1-2 days. In countries where this has been taken seriously they've stretched it out to 10-15 days at least--enough time for those who need medical care to get it and get back out to leave a bed for the next person who needs it. This is the goal most countries are, ideally, aiming for. Some of them, however, have fucked it up royally from the start and have a hard time ahead of them before it starts to get better.

There is nothing disingenuous about this but an honest questioning of the futility of lockdown and an exit strategy.

For the UK to reach 100% virus saturation from 1 million cases it takes about 6 doublings, for the US 8 and a bit. It doesn't matter if those doublings happen every 2 days or every 10, by June end at the latest everyone is infected. It doesn't matter about testing as an exit strategy, everyone is infected.

I'm listening to the scientists, the UK government say they are too, lockdown or not this is done and dusted by July.

The health services are either ready now or they are not, a few days here and there or a week or two will make barely a difference to the outcome. It isn't like we can delay this for a year or so under house arrest until a vaccine is available.

[Grapemask]

There is nothing disingenuous about this but an honest questioning of the futility of lockdown and an exit strategy.

For the UK to reach 100% virus saturation from 1 million cases it takes about 6 doublings, for the US 8 and a bit. It doesn't matter if those doublings happen every 2 days or every 10, by June end at the latest everyone is infected. It doesn't matter about testing as an exit strategy, everyone is infected.

I'm listening to the scientists, the UK government say they are too, lockdown or not this is done and dusted by July.

The health services are either ready now or they are not, a few days here and there or a week or two will make barely a difference to the outcome. It isn't like we can delay this for a year or so under house arrest until a vaccine is available.

It will make a significant difference. We have limited healthcare resources. If everyone hits the hospitals now who is going to hit the hospitals, not only will a lot more people with coronavirus die who otherwise wouldn't have, a whole lot of other people are going to die because healthcare is saturated with the coronavirus cases. It'll be like when Katrina hit the US; not only did a lot of people die directly to the hurricane, but even more people died as a result of the hurricane. And it's easy to avoid just by spreading our cases out over time.

[Poopymonster]

i wonder if trump and friends are using this to sway people over to the conservative viewpoint of small government by trying to make them think big government doesn't work....or maybe im overthinking this.

That and "Look how the private sector helped! Let's privatize everything!"

[Trassk]

So called scientist, feels that its mean and hurtful to blame china for the virus!

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/soci...nking-covid-19

“As countries struggle to control the spread of the new coronavirus, a minority of politicians are sticking with the outdated script,” the Nature report said.

“Continuing to associate a virus and the disease it causes with a specific place is irresponsible and needs to stop.”

Like omg you guys, its so totally not chinas fault, because orange man bad, oh mah gawd!

[Themius]

So called scientist, feels that its mean and hurtful to blame china for the virus!

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/soci...nking-covid-19

“As countries struggle to control the spread of the new coronavirus, a minority of politicians are sticking with the outdated script,” the Nature report said.

“Continuing to associate a virus and the disease it causes with a specific place is irresponsible and needs to stop.”

Like omg you guys, its so totally not chinas fault, because orange man bad, oh mah gawd!

hmm Asian people have been physically attacked due to the mislabeling of this but sure... go ahead and continue down this line of bias.

And it literally isn't China's fault.

AMERICA APPARENTLY KNEW AS EARLY AS DECEMBER And America did absolutely nothing to prepare despite warnings from THE INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY and his fuck trade advisor of all people. Tell me who made those decisions of inaction was it fucking China????????

[Benggaul]

Alexis, play Nicki Minaj's "Stupid Hoe".

…………..

In other news, if anyone from the States wants to see how their state is doing compared the rest over the past week, here's a link detailing increases in the past 7 days. It's a slideshow and lame, I know, but it's pretty handy info.

[stevenho]

It will make a significant difference. We have limited healthcare resources. If everyone hits the hospitals now who is going to hit the hospitals, not only will a lot more people with coronavirus die who otherwise wouldn't have, a whole lot of other people are going to die because healthcare is saturated with the coronavirus cases. It'll be like when Katrina hit the US; not only did a lot of people die directly to the hurricane, but even more people died as a result of the hurricane. And it's easy to avoid just by spreading our cases out over time.

Seems like it is not making much of a difference in Sweden where restaurants, bars, schools and everything else is open.

[Grapemask]

hmm Asian people have been physically attacked due to the mislabeling of this but sure... go ahead and continue down this line of bias.

And it literally isn't China's fault.

AMERICA APPARENTLY KNEW AS EARLY AS DECEMBER And America did absolutely nothing to prepare despite warnings from THE INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY and his fuck trade advisor of all people. Tell me who made those decisions of inaction was it fucking China????????

Actually as early as November.