Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[Granyala]

If these lockdown can stay up till end of the year that is.
Yes alot of lives have been taken but 1 year from the world wide population is also gone in lockdown, i predict that lockdown resistance will just increase and will collapse if it will go past the summer.

IF the lockdown lasts that long.
I seriously doubt it. The numbers just don't look scary enough to justify it. People are going to riot if it goes on for another month+.

[Grapemask]

IF the lockdown lasts that long.
I seriously doubt it. The numbers just don't look scary enough to justify it. People are going to riot if it goes on for another month+.

They don't look scary because we're in lockdown. They'll get a lot more scared when 5-18% of their parents and grandparents die when everyone runs outside citing a weak low-energy virus.

[stevenho]

They don't look scary because we're in lockdown. They'll get a lot more scared when 5-18% of their parents and grandparents die when everyone runs outside citing a weak low-energy virus.

Just like they are dying in Sweden. Right?

[Granyala]

They don't look scary because we're in lockdown. They'll get a lot more scared when 5-18% of their parents and grandparents die when everyone runs outside citing a weak low-energy virus.

Well, I guess the US will be our lab rat then.

I don't expect the lockdown to be completely eliminated at once but I'd be surprised if they would not loosen the restrictions come May.

[Grapemask]

Just like they are dying in Sweden. Right?

You know, you keep resetting the facts you've obtained every 5 posts or so. Is there any point talking to someone that doesn't retain information?

[Spectral]

It wasn’t a lie.. because there are reports in November... if you want to pretend you’re blind go ahead.



How is this a lie to say USA knew in November???

As discussed earlier:

I see this bandied about as the date that US intelligence was putatively right on top of things and it raises my skepticism more than a bit. In January, The Lancet was publishing attempts at figuring out the origins of the virus pegging the first cases of pneumonia being December in Wuhan. The earliest symptomatic case I've seen referenced in any of the primary literature is December 1. So what exactly are unnamed sources in the intelligence community claiming that they knew in November? The only options I can plausibly see are:

1) They're just amazing scientists, they noticed asymptomatic patients before anyone else did. Let's put the probability of this one at approximately zero.
2) There's some real cloak and dagger shit somewhere in the story - someone knew exactly what virus was going around before anyone was symptomatic or tested positive using sources and methods that shall remain unnamed. They were able to determine the infectivity and fatality rates of a novel virus before the Chinese officials investigating the matter were and brought that message back for the United States to do something quickly. This is certainly the story that these guys would like to tell.
3) Someone's full of shit and just trying to make their agency look good with timelines that don't even make sense at a glance.

To be clear, my position is that (3) is almost certainly true. No one knew much of anything in November, the November 17 estimate of the first infection is a backdated estimate based on the best biological evidence available. The current extent of evidence for (2) being true is "unnamed sources told reporters" which is less than convincing. More recent reporting:

Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff John Hyten seemed to push back on reports that the US intelligence community was aware of the coronavirus in November, saying Thursday that the first intelligence reports he saw were in January.
Asked when the first intelligence streams about the virus began to arrive, Hyten said, "We went back and looked at everything in November, December. The first indication we have were the reports out of China in late December that were in the public forum. And the first intel reports I saw were in January.

This timeline makes much more sense. There were no confirmed cases prior to December and the strain tracking is consistent with the hypothesis that the first infection occurred on or about November 17. [URL="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/intelligence-report-warned-coronavirus-crisis-early-november-sources/story?id=70031273"]Someone leaking a "US intel really smart" message to the media made an oopsie.

[stevenho]

You know, you keep resetting the facts you've obtained every 5 posts or so. Is there any point talking to someone that doesn't retain information?

There is no lockdown in Sweden and their "parents and grandparents" aren't dying by 5-18%.
THOSE are facts.

[Puupi]

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/loca...nting/2368678/

400% increase in cardiac arrest home deaths. Most likely caused by corona.

[tromage2]

They don't look scary because we're in lockdown. They'll get a lot more scared when 5-18% of their parents and grandparents die when everyone runs outside citing a weak low-energy virus.

Yes but how long do you want to stay in lock down?
They say next year we got a vaccine? they might be wrong tho maybe we will have a vaccine in 5 years -10 years we dont know (and the experts dont know) because we dont have one yet.

[Puupi]

Another New York story, paramedic's daily diary:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52196815

"Not one of the 12 people suspected to have died of Covid-19 on Anthony's shift had been tested for coronavirus. As a result, their deaths were not included in the official coronavirus death toll in New York last Sunday, which stood at 594."

[Spectral]

Well, I guess the US will be our lab rat then.

I don't expect the lockdown to be completely eliminated at once but I'd be surprised if they would not loosen the restrictions come May.

While I certainly don't have any faith that it'll be done competently, it's pretty obvious that there are better plans available than an all or nothing approach to lockdowns. More granular policy levels, such as city and county are feasible if testing regimes improve to where public health surveillance is feasible to start taking "hammer and dance" approaches in a localized fashion based on infection rates, population density, and other exacerbating factors. Areas with R0 below 1 and sufficient ICU capacity can ease off some restrictions.

Really, a fully national policy in such a gigantic, diverse country seems pretty dumb.

[Grapemask]

There is no lockdown in Sweden and their "parents and grandparents" aren't dying by 5-18%.
THOSE are facts.

These are the facts you've gone around the carousel about 9 times with:

Sweden is one of the few countries still seeing a growth in new cases per day.
Sweden has one of the highest death rates per million in the world.
Sweden's death rate in general to this virus is nearly 10%, while all of its neighbors are clocking in around 1%.
Sweden has one of the lowest testing rates worldwide, so the number of people with it or dying with it is virtually an unknown quantity.

These are all met in the short term with Alternative Stats, and "X doesn't matter because of Y variable on the third Sunday after Labor Day," and then a few posts later someone else gets dragged into the next run around the loop.

There are no stats that Sweden is doing this well. Most are already calling it a dismal failure. Sweden benefits from having a much lower population than those that are doing poorly, so there's plenty of room for people to abuse statistics - just like the US having far more people than other countries that are doing poorly allows its own statistics to be abused. But it's still doing poorly.

[tromage2]

There are no stats that Sweden is doing this well. Most are already calling it a dismal failure. Sweden benefits from having a much lower population than those that are doing poorly, so there's plenty of room for people to abuse statistics - just like the US having far more people than other countries that are doing poorly allows its own statistics to be abused. But it's still doing poorly.

All countries doing poorly, the countries in lockdown will still get their deaths just at a later date when they open up abit again.
And if they want to wait for a vaccine (what will be in xx amount of months - years) then they can prepare for a very very long time at home.

[Tuor]

OMG, even more bad news from Portugal. None of the official data released today makes sense, something really wrong in going on, and no one knows what .

[Puupi]

OMG, even more bad news from Portugal. None of the official data released today makes sense, something really wrong in going on, and no one knows what .

What's wrong with the data?

[breadisfunny]

19,666 dead we just passed italy in # of dead. usa #1 now.

[Tuor]

What's wrong with the data?

Before the daily update the DGS website was reporting that 140 000 samples had been gathered, after the update is reporting that over a milion and a half samples have been gathered, it just doesn't make any sense.

I will no longer be updating any data from today on.

[Draco-Onis]

All countries doing poorly, the countries in lockdown will still get their deaths just at a later date when they open up abit again.
And if they want to wait for a vaccine (what will be in xx amount of months - years) then they can prepare for a very very long time at home.

False as evidenced by the countries who have it under control.

[Granyala]

18,850 dead we just passed italy in # of dead. usa #1 now.

Go, team America!

Not surprising though, you do have a wee bit more people running around than them old Romans.

[tromage2]

False as evidenced by the countries who have it under control.

For now… Its not like corona suddenly stops after a lockdown.