Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[PhaelixWW]

Context matters. 10-12 hours where and 30mins - 1hr where? In a packed grocery store vs at a office with maybe 2 others? The half hour -1hr is worse in that situation. The amount of time out is irrelevant. It fully depends on the where and how many others are there as well.

Don't be ridiculous. That 10-12 hours a day would also include the same periodic trips to the store. Or are you suggesting that people will stop needing supplies when they go back to work? And you're seriously suggesting that offices have "maybe 2 others"? What office would that be? Name me a few common examples where people come into contact with only 2-3 others as a part of their daily job.

I know the lockdown portion wont. Its crumbling already. People are lucky. Lucky this isn't more deadly. But still, I just hope we get some vaccine before the lockdown orders fall apart too much. And honestly, that was one of the entire goals. Get a vaccine while buying some time by getting most to stay put.

We're nowhere near a vaccine. We're going to need a lot more bought time for that to be a factor.

Given my state, I just find it hard to really keep hope. Got family acting like morons. See more people out then ever before in my state. A governor who isn't doing much of anything. And all I ever see are numbers going up and up.

Despite the appearance of things being for shit, it's actually still better than it was in normal daily life. And if and when the virus gains more traction because a portion of the population is being stupid, then people will change their tune again. People as a whole tend to have a short attention span, but it will be hard to argue with the death statistics once the virus is hitting certain areas harder than others.

[Acidbaron]

If you want to reduce measures in your nation and re open your economy it is all the more important that an actual lockdown gets followed through, calling for public disobedience and rushing into things will make it so that there will never be a good time to open the economy.

When i see those people holding protests in the US, would you want to go back to work in a place with people who care that little for their own or others their well being?
You're essentially speaking of people who can't be bothered to wash their hands after going to the toilet.

Apparently the estimated deaths from the federal government has changed once again in the US, gone from just a few people to 200.000 to now just 60.000 again.

[breadisfunny]

our lockdown has been extended to may 26.
https://www.newsweek.com/wisconsin-c...-rally-1498514
well looks like wisconsin is set to board the stupid train. /double facepalm.

[stevenho]

That train is going to be bigger and bigger with every passing week.

[beanman12345]

our lockdown has been extended to may 26.
https://www.newsweek.com/wisconsin-c...-rally-1498514
well looks like wisconsin is set to board the stupid train. /double facepalm.

I would not be suprised if Illinois gets on it at some point. Outside Chicagoland area state is mostly republican. Could see people being bussed into Springfield to protest their pandumbic.

[tromage2]

There’s no way logistically speaking we can stay locked down for the 12+ months the vaccine will take to arrive. Food may grow on trees but large swathes of the US rely on food being imported from other parts of the country and around the world.

‘Oh no the economy’ may be a meme but it’s literally what makes our society function.

And that a vaccine will arrive in 12+ months is just speculation right now.
They all might not work since they are all still in a testing phase.
If things are not going as planned we might not see a vaccine for years toward 10s of years.

So we are waiting in lock down on something that might not arrive at all...

[PhaelixWW]

So we are waiting in lock down on something that might not arrive at all...

No, because we're not waiting in lockdown for a vaccine in the first place. That's not the purpose of the lockdown.

[Acidbaron]

And that a vaccine will arrive in 12+ months is just speculation right now.
They all might not work since they are all still in a testing phase.
If things are not going as planned we might not see a vaccine for years toward 10s of years.

So we are waiting in lock down on something that might not arrive at all...

No, you simply don't understand why a lock down was needed, that's okay you have only been told a dozen or so times by now lol

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our lockdown has been extended to may 26.
https://www.newsweek.com/wisconsin-c...-rally-1498514
well looks like wisconsin is set to board the stupid train. /double facepalm.

I fully understand the sentiment that people when it comes to taking names and simply refusing to give such people care when they get struck down by it. People are risking their lives in providing care from others and you got knuckleheads like that forming hotspots in public places to demand their "freedom".

Have fun with that freedom when you can barely walk as you need to gasp for air, maybe create freedom hospitals, no care to be found in such a place, simply strong encouragements to get over it as it is just a flu.

[tromage2]

No, you simply don't understand why a lock down was needed, that's okay you have only been told a dozen or so times by now lol

To not overload the hospitals….
In the Netherlands we now have 3% of the population infected.

That means if you want a 60% population resistance factor that this lock down can be 20x as long as we have right now.
My governement does not have that amount of money to keep the special social systems in check for that amount of time.

[PhaelixWW]

To not overload the hospitals….
In the Netherlands we now have 3% of the population infected.

That means if you want a 60% population resistance factor that this lock down can be 20x as long as we have right now.
My governement does not have that amount of money to keep the special social systems in check for that amount of time.

You're not going to achieve full, open herd immunity during a single lockdown. It's impossible.

[Acidbaron]

To not overload the hospitals….
In the Netherlands we now have 3% of the population infected.

That means if you want a 60% population resistance factor that this lock down can be 20x as long as we have right now.
My governement does not have that amount of money to keep the special social systems in check for that amount of time.

To get the curve to level out so that hospitalizations are no longer decreasing or increasing over a period of time, so that you with the current measures can control the infection and the hospitalization rate to be exact.

It has never been the intend to maintain the current level of lockdown till a vaccine arrives, even virologists said that going back to work with the virus around is something that we will have to deal with.

I work in The Netherlands and i am a bit surprised that you don't know that companies are going to start back up, non essential ones starting on the 4th of May of course under strict guidelines obviously.

Your country does have the money available and if you knew what has been decided on an EU level you would be aware of the measures in place to loan money in case your budget would be insufficient. Again something the dutch government spend quite some time debating on.

Are you sure you're from the netherlands? Because you seem rather oblivious to things that are hardly state secrets at this point.

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You're not going to achieve full, open herd immunity during a single lockdown. It's impossible.

Well in theory...

You could infect people on purpose, i know there was talks about infecting young kids on purpose but that thought experiment did not get very far as you can never ensure that the virus remains just among kids and for obvious other reasons. But if you really wanted to you could infect a whole nation at great human cost.

[tromage2]

I work in The Netherlands and i am a bit surprised that you don't know that companies are going to start back up, non essential ones starting on the 4th of May of course under strict guidelines obviously.

When your from the Netherlands then you know that Rutte will speak Tuesday next week if non essentials can open again.
And this week he alrdy said that a tennis club cant open again because he fears that more people will go back into traffic to get to these places. And if a company like a tennis club where a 1,5 meter distance can easily be maintained is not a option for him then i would not be very hopefull for others to reopen.

[Shadowferal]

How long can a country keep a total lockdown before that country explodes and implodes?
Anyone claiming a few months isn't thinking it through.
Fortunately state governers are seeing the problem.

[Acidbaron]

When your from the Netherlands then you know that Rutte will speak next week if non essentials can open again.
And this week he alrdy said that a tennis club cant open again because he fears that more people will go back into traffic to get to these places.

Non-essentials like tennisclubs are not important facets of an nation industry, manufacturing is. I fully expect such leisure business, especially sport clubs to be closed for a long time.

If my employer what is the VDL group did not know for certain they could re open they wouldn't make that statement, because we are speaking of a couple thousand employees here over the whole nation.

[Tuor]

To not overload the hospitals….
In the Netherlands we now have 3% of the population infected.

That means if you want a 60% population resistance factor that this lock down can be 20x as long as we have right now.
My governement does not have that amount of money to keep the special social systems in check for that amount of time.

Your governement or any governement, we need to restart economy as soon as possible, but first, we need to diminish the viral charge circulating on the streets, Norway and the Czech Republic are almost there, Austria is on the way.

Any country should be able to wait 6 months on a lockdown, after that its just impossible.

And after we will have the second wave, which means, we might get into another lockdown, at this point, most likely there would no longer be large quantities of goods in the market, which means some countries might not even implement a second lockdown... We will see.

[Acidbaron]

How long can a country keep a total lockdown before that country explodes and implodes?
Anyone claiming a few months isn't thinking it through.
Fortunately state governers are seeing the problem.

Those clairvoyant numpties that are going to reopen too soon are going to cause more economic distress as you'll be forced to close down once again and good luck counting on public understand and obedience that second time around.

There's also the added factor that considering the infectious nature of said virus that there will be a reluctance of accepting orders from hot spot areas, causing you to potentially lose your export market spot. That is considering you'll find enough workers healthy enough to work.

If your nation or state can't maintain a proper lockdown for a good month or two and is a developed and wealthy nation, the problem is not the virus it's the system.

[PhaelixWW]

Well in theory...

You could infect people on purpose, i know there was talks about infecting young kids on purpose but that thought experiment did not get very far as you can never ensure that the virus remains just among kids and for obvious other reasons. But if you really wanted to you could infect a whole nation at great human cost.

That wouldn't be a lockdown, though, which is the point.

The whole purpose of a lockdown is to lower the effective R0 in that area to as low as possible. That changes the effective herd immunity threshold while those lockdown measures are contained to a much smaller number. If we drop the effective R0 to, say, a 1.1, then as people continue to get infected, the Re will drop further, to below 1, and the virus will start to lose ground. At an effective R0 of 1.1, the virus would come to a virtual standstill at less than 10% of the population infected.

But the second you ease lockdown measures, the effective R0 value goes back up, the herd immunity threshold equation changes, and the Re of the virus goes back above 1, which means the infection rate starts to rise again.

The regular R0 of the coronavirus is still in debate, but the normal, open, no-lockdown-measures herd immunity threshold is somewhere in the 60-83% range. There is zero chance to get there while lockdown measures are in place, though.

In order to achieve full herd immunity, you'd have to stagger lockdown periods with periods of less restriction.

[Stelio Kontos]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...virus-outbreak

Only about 100 deaths so far, much better than countries of similar population size. Here's to hoping we can keep a tight lid on it this weekend with Orthodox Easter happening.

[Benggaul]

Literally nothing has gotten better. The general populace seems to be impatient and want to re-open things. Why? Idiocy. Greed. Boredom. Take your pick.

We are very much so without a leader in this. Most states have to try to handle this on their own. Most people dont look past their local news stations so they fail to realize that literally everywhere that has tried to re-open has fallen right back down.

It's not "the general populace". It's a pretty specific set of people. HINT: They are the reason Trump's polls don't dip below a certain number.

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That's the thing though. The virus is moving past the containment of city clusters and hitting rural areas. The death toll in the US is 4.5%, that's 4-5 deaths out of every 100. Spring is also kind of shit in a lot of places - tornado, mushy, allergy season. We've barely been at it for a month.

Is America just soft and whiney?

See above.

[Shadowferal]

Those clairvoyant numpties that are going to reopen too soon are going to cause more economic distress as you'll be forced to close down once again and good luck counting on public understand and obedience that second time around.

At that point no one will care since the greater majority will be breathing a sigh of release.
It's like being in jail...and finally being released. If you've ever known what that's like you know you're never going back.