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Good point.Originally Posted by Katchii
As soon as people become more aware of this possibility they are investigating them more, not only the obvious of doing the test - but also full genome analysis of both infections to indicate that it truly is a re-infection (has been done in a number of cases).
However, 25(?) confirmed reinfections doesn't seem much.
Clearly not compared to 1 billion likely infections, but the confirmed reinfections are among the 40 million confirmed cases, and more specifically among the 2 million confirmed cases half a year ago, and specifically the re-exposed individuals among them - perhaps 1% which would be 20,000; which would mean that perhaps 0.1% of the infected can be re-infected after 6 months. (Or it might be that 0.1% were re-exposed and the re-infections were 1%.)
In itself that isn't overly problematic, the issue how it develops in the coming months; if it is similar to other corona-viruses it seems immunity disappears after half a year to a year, if it's similar to the Spanish flu most infected stay immune for a life-time.
Recent Forum Posts
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2020-10-21, 06:32 AM #19401Elemental Lord
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2020-10-21, 01:50 PM #19402Warchief
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Fuck the Netherlands...
Yesterday: 8.1k new cases... hope that measures finally worked.
Dashed. Shattered, Totally rekted, for today we got 8.7k new cases.
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2020-10-21, 01:58 PM #19403Titan
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1503 just today (record) for a 2 milion country. Originally Posted by Fuiking
8100 on yours in a 17.2 milion country
Your country is in better state % wise at least
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2020-10-21, 02:17 PM #19404Titan
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While it's not much of a sample size to make any conclusive statements on much of anything, the fact that there are ANY confirmed reinfections is a big deal, so soon after the infection. Even without much information to go on, that in itself is enough to warrant further investigation, because it means there are a lot of unanswered questions. The main one to me is, how effective is a vaccine going to be if the immunity doesn't last very long? Is immunity different in different people?? I guess that's what the trials are going to find out. Originally Posted by Forogil
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2020-10-21, 02:45 PM #19405Epic!
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It was pointed out elsewhere, but even an extremely successful vaccine like for the measles is only 97% effective. There are always going to be outliers when you start getting into such huge numbers of people. Originally Posted by Katchii
For a bit of good news, treatments are starting to help reduce deaths across all ages: https://www.npr.org/sections/health-...9-death-rates: "The study, which was of a single health system, finds that mortality has dropped among hospitalized patients by 18 percentage points since the pandemic began. Patients in the study had a 25.6% chance of dying at the start of the pandemic; they now have a 7.6% chance. "
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2020-10-21, 04:38 PM #19406Elemental Lord
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Hopefully the studies will determine that, but the problem is that we will get the results when the vaccine-studies are complete at the end of 2022 - both about long-term immunity and long-term side-effects, but we are likely to start vaccinating early in 2021 - without having that information. Originally Posted by Katchii
For the reinfections one obvious aspect is that we don't study re-infections for all other diseases so we don't know how typical this is, e.g., it seems people hadn't studied re-infections for other common corona-viruses (the ones that cause some of the cases of the common cold) before this pandemic.
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2020-10-21, 06:58 PM #19407Titan
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I'm less worried about the re-infections themselves and more so the length of time it takes until you can get reinfected, ie how long immunity lasts, how it varies from person to person, etc... Originally Posted by Forogil
As you said though, we'll see. We simply don't have that information, because there hasn't been enough time to gather and analyze that kind of data.
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2020-10-22, 04:21 PM #19408Warchief
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Fuck the Netherlands....
9283 new cases last 24hours, this is WITH measures. In this rate we will reach 10k a day in a day of 3.
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2020-10-22, 05:23 PM #19409Epic!
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It usually takes a few days for people to get symptoms and then get tested so measures take a week or two to start having an effect that shows up in the numbers so don't despair yet. Originally Posted by Fuiking
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2020-10-22, 06:01 PM #19410The Unstoppable Force
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Pssh... we busted the 10K today. Originally Posted by Fuiking
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2020-10-22, 06:13 PM #19411Over 9000!
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Yeah, well, France just posted 41.6k new cases today, so, uh... yeah. Originally Posted by Granyala
Pssh... we busted the 10K today.
It's only just after 11am PDT, most of the Americas have not reported yet, and we're already at 350k new cases worldwide... /headdesk
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2020-10-22, 06:58 PM #19412The Insane
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Takes at least two weeks for measures to show up in the numbers so hang on tight. They'll go down eventually now with cafe's and restaurants closed and masks being requested not yet required though now. Originally Posted by Fuiking
Also the winter months are here so things will go up everywhere.
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2020-10-22, 07:01 PM #19413The Unstoppable Force
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Things surely start looking ugly. Weird but not entirely unexpected. Originally Posted by PhaelixWW
I just hope we can keep it away from the 70+ folks.
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2020-10-22, 07:07 PM #19414Scarab Lord
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Where is Cynep claiming the peak is over?
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2020-10-22, 07:19 PM #19415I am Murloc!
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The more likely explanation for this is that tons of people reinfected themselves, but never noticed, just like tons never noticed they had it to begin with. Which is a good sign. It implies that, even though there might not be a straight up immunity, the body 'remembers' how to fight COVID-19, and subsequent infections will, generally speaking, be milder. Which is a really good thing. Originally Posted by Edge-
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2020-10-23, 07:01 AM #19416Over 9000!
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I mean... Originally Posted by Hansworst
Obviously wrong arguments are obviously wrong. Even delusional people have limits, right?
"The difference between stupidity
and genius is that genius has its limits."
--Alexandre Dumas-fils
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2020-10-23, 11:54 AM #19417Over 9000!
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Yeah, but it's too bad that Remdesivir doesn't seem to do much good. Originally Posted by Winter Blossom
Remdesivir and interferon fall flat in WHO’s megastudy of COVID-19 treatments
One of the world’s biggest trials of COVID-19 therapies released its long-awaited interim results yesterday—and they’re a letdown. None of the four treatments in the Solidarity trial, which enrolled more than 11,000 patients in 400 hospitals around the globe, increased survival—not even the much-touted antiviral drug remdesivir. Scientists at the World Health Organization (WHO) released the data as a preprint on medRxiv last night, ahead of its planned publication in The New England Journal of Medicine.
Yet scientists praised the unprecedented study itself and the fact that it helped bring clarity about four existing, ”repurposed” treatments that each held some promise against COVID-19. “It’s disappointing that none of the four have come out and shown a difference in mortality, but it does show why you need big trials,” says Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust. “We would love to have a drug that works, but it’s better to know if a drug works or not than not to know and continue to use it,” says WHO’s chief scientist, Soumya Swaminathan.
Related
The prospects of two of the four treatments—the malaria drug hydroxychloroquine and the HIV drug combination ritonavir/lopinavir—had faded after another large study, the United Kingdom’s Recovery trial, showed they did not increase survival in June. After analyzing that study and its own data up until then, WHO decided to drop both from the study.
There was still hope for remdesivir and for interferon-beta, which had initially been given in combination with ritonavir/lopinavir but was tested as a standalone drug after the Recovery data came out. But neither of those treatments lowered mortality or delayed the moment patients needed ventilation to help them breathe. The results in these two treatment arms are likely to be the most scrutinized.
Remdesivir, which attacks a specific enzyme in several RNA viruses and was previously tested against Ebola, was initially seen as a promising candidate. In a U.S. trial with more than 1000 COVID-19 patients published last week, those who received remdesivir had a shorter recovery time than patients in the control group, but there was no significant difference in mortality. Two smaller trials found few significant benefits. Remdesivir received an emergency use authorization from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in May for severe COVID-19 patients that was later expanded to include all patients.
But the Solidarity trial suggests the drug does little in severe cases. Of 2743 hospitalized patients who received the drug, 11% died, versus 11.2% in a control group of roughly the same size. The difference is so small it could have arisen by chance.
When the authors pooled Solidarity’s data with those from the three other trials, they found a slight reduction in mortality that wasn’t statistically significant either. “This absolutely excludes the suggestion that remdesivir can prevent a substantial fraction of all deaths,” the authors write. “The confidence interval is comfortably compatible with prevention of a small fraction of all deaths but is also comfortably compatible with prevention of no deaths.”
“This trial doesn’t help remdesivir, that’s for sure,” says Eric Topol, director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute. “It’s not a dead duck as much as hydroxychloroquine, but it certainly is not the hope that was initially signaled.”
But the drug’s manufacturer, Gilead Sciences, casts doubt on the study. “The trial design prioritized broad access, resulting in significant heterogeneity in trial adoption, implementation, controls and patient populations,” the company says in a statement, “and consequently, it is unclear if any conclusive findings can be drawn from the study results.”
Gilead received the manuscript about Solidarity on 28 September, according to WHO. On 8 October, before the results became public, the company signed a $1 billion deal with the European Commission for a 6-month supply of the drug.
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2020-10-23, 12:40 PM #19418Warchief
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Qouting myself. I said 10k in 3 days. Oh boy was I wrong... it hit 10,007 today. Measures, ie a soft lockdown (in my eyes, but it might be a hard lockdown for many people) was nearly 2 weeks ago. Originally Posted by Fuiking
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2020-10-23, 12:46 PM #19419Void Lord
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US is reporting the highest infected total yet...
Coronavirus case increase sets new U.S. record, rising to over 77K in one day
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news...-over-n1244490
This ‘learn to live with it’ plan, kinda sucks...Folly and fakery have always been with us... but it has never before been as dangerous as it is now, never in history have we been able to afford it less. - Isaac Asimov
Every damn thing you do in this life, you pay for. - Edith Piaf
The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. - Orwell
No amount of belief makes something a fact. - James Randi
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2020-10-23, 03:57 PM #19420Moderator
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Jesus christ. If we'd stop being fucking stupid, selfish pricks for just a few months collectively, as a country, we could make some real headway. Originally Posted by Felya
I'm gettin real tired of hearing about peoples freedom and liberty to drag on a pandemic and get more people killed.
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