Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[Dacien]

The only people I want to hear from right now to reassure me are Ja Rule and Sunglass Hut.

[Shadowferal]

No, my daughter just stopped demanding to watch Frozen 1 six times a day a month ago. Don't do this to me Disney..... WHY?!?!?!

What? Frozen 2 has been released on dvd/blu ray for a couple of weeks now, and streaming earlier than that.
Maybe that was something you didn't want to know...nevermind.

[Ange]

Threads like this with a very highly shifted US perspective look scary AF!

From my point of view in germany:

-> I got my 1 day/week homeoffice extended to every workday "until revocation", no big deal

-> the health system here started to include corona/corvid-19 into the billing system for hospitals/labs/doctors, so testing or anything related to it is nothing out of order - since january 2020 btw. The guidings for doctors what people are to test and to report is not even in the news anymore since its old news from months ago

-> in case of a full nationwide lockdown, everyone (EVERYONE = freelancer, workers, self-employed) got a garanteed income, you dont even have to touch your 30-minimum mandatory paid vacation days, yes closed schools next week will suck even with homeoffice, but many companies expected this news and allready dealt with it

-> the hospital bed population ratio here is world wide top 3 and the amount of intensive care beds are most likely #1 worldwide right now with the long preparation time

Did my weekend shopping today and honestly I see more people shopping before/after national holidays as right now. Reading some of the postings here feels just sureal, because its so far away from my PoV.

[Themius]

Threads like this with a very highly shifted US perspective look scary AF!

From my point of view in germany:

-> I got my 1 day/week homeoffice extended to every workday "until revocation", no big deal

-> the health system here started to include corona/corvid-19 into the billing system for hospitals/labs/doctors, so testing or anything related to it is nothing out of order - since january 2020 btw. The guidings for doctors what people are to test and to report is not even in the news anymore since its old news from months ago

-> in case of a full nationwide lockdown, everyone (EVERYONE = freelancer, workers, self-employed) got a garanteed income, you dont even have to touch your 30-minimum mandatory paid vacation days, yes closed schools next week will suck even with homeoffice, but many companies expected this news and allready dealt with it

-> the hospital bed population ratio here is world wide top 3 and the amount of intensive care beds are most likely #1 worldwide right now with the long preparation time

Did my weekend shopping today and honestly I see more people shopping before/after national holidays as right now. Reading some of the postings here feels just sureal, because its so far away from my PoV.

That’s because the USA is mental. We focus on selfishness above all.

[Forogil]

Stop believing conspiracy theories. If you want a breakdown how the virus has spread with the different strains you can see it here. They have been sequencing it:

https://nextstrain.org/ncov

Oh, I realized they also have interesting datasets in particular: https://nextstrain.org/groups/blab/sars-like-cov

So, it seems that this virus had already been jumping between at least bats and pangolins a bit (exactly how isn't clear - there might be another animal involved as well).

And then https://nextstrain.org/groups/blab/beta-cov - showing the relation between MERS, SARS, and the corona virus that cause some cases of the common cold (part of Betacoronavirus_1 and also known by the cooler name OC43).

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All those kids not in school..
The local mall was busy yesterday.

And that's why many countries don't see the point of closing schools at the moment.

[Ange]

And that's why many countries don't see the point of closing schools at the moment.

Its a simple financial issue. If you close the schools early, the government has to maintain the additional day-care for children from policeman/fireman/doctors and pay for parents that cant work anymore.

Its cheaper to keep the schools open, but it will obviously effect the spread of the virus.

In the end you will know your own value in the country you live in.

[Onikaroshi]

Stores really need to crack down and post notices and tell check out people to limit the amount people can get. I'm sure people will bitch and say *it's america..if i want to buy in bulk..i have the right* lol

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IKR. Families need to be stocking up..not some single dude stocking up just cause he can. T.T
However, my mom in NH said walmart shelves were empty. She hadn't heard about notices or guards. You would think stores would implement measures..but oh well.

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Hmm...if worst comes to worst, i'll just end up mailing my mom some TP most likely.

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Has anyone seen that vid of two women beating it out over TP in a store?

Just did my weekishly kroger order, all cleaning supplies, tp, paper towel, and water is being limited to 3 per customer. Unfortanetly though, online ordering of it is shut down so i'll probably have to go in sometime this week when we are close to running out seems counterproductive to force people into the store.

[Forogil]

Its a simple financial issue. If you close the schools early, the government has to maintain the additional day-care for children from policeman/fireman/doctors and pay for parents that cant work anymore.

Its cheaper to keep the schools open, but it will obviously effect the spread of the virus.

You missed the point that the kids instead meet in the mall - or in other places, so you don't even get positive effects.

In the end you will know your own value in the country you live in.

Or which ones that understand children.

[Queen of Hamsters]

I live in a town in the north of Sweden called Umeå.
We have 8 Corona cases, all of whom have been to northern Italy, and all of whom are in quarantine at their homes.

We also have people stockpiling. Many shelves in many stores (especially the big ones) have giant gaps in them from where people have been plundering.

Whilst Corona is not "just a flu" (6% death rate vs 0.1% + the potency of spread), I fail to see why people UP HERE need to act like we're headed into WWIII...

[Tuor]

Here in my town, all you can see is people using gloves at the supermarket and some other stores, haven't seen anyone using a mask so far. Also some stores are already closed and are displaying a covid-19 related warnings.

So far 169 confirmed cases in Portugal, more then 1000 suspected cases, this is going really bad, and i look to nearby Spain and its even worst.

[Daedius]

I’m not Mad Maxing it for food.

A movie will happen.

[D Luniz]

Remember when the hakkar plague got loose in the game?

Think that data is being used in any of the projections for COVID?

[Acidbaron]

Here in my town, all you can see is people using gloves at the supermarket and some other stores, haven't seen anyone using a mask so far. Also some stores are already closed and are displaying a covid-19 related warnings.

So far 169 confirmed cases in Portugal, more then 1000 suspected cases, this is going really bad, and i look to nearby Spain and its even worst.

People are being discouraged from using masks because they don't aid, unless you're sick than it keeps the germs inside. Caregivers need them more.

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Remember when the hakkar plague got loose in the game?

Think that data is being used in any of the projections for COVID?

https://www.pcgamer.com/uk/the-resea...e-coronavirus/

[RickJamesLich]

I'm in Cleveland, OH, it's not too bad here. We had 6 confirmed cases in the county and 13 statewide. Will probably get worse but thankfully we have the Cleveland Clinic which has just started testing people. All of our major events have been cancelled, no sports, no political rallies, and nothing else really. All the kids have off of school which IMO is probably a good idea even though there will be some consequences. Outside of the morons that still don't try to cover up when they cough, it has not been too bad though, definitely see lots of people washing/sanitizing themselves, people wearing face masks, it's pretty much the only thing our news covers this point so public awareness is definitely out there. No doubt the situation will get worse but hopefully not too crazy thanks to some of the precautions.

[D Luniz]

People are being discouraged from using masks because they don't aid, unless you're sick than it keeps the germs inside. Caregivers need them more.

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https://www.pcgamer.com/uk/the-resea...e-coronavirus/

thankie
/10char

[PhaelixWW]

The 60-70% is not just a guess.

I think you missed the point of my statement.

I was also wondering about the reason for that specific number, but assumed that Merkel had good medical experts, and finally looked into it and the idea is quite simple: to reach the herd immunity threshold when the reproduction number is 2.3 (as seems to be the case) you need 57% to be infected.

Round that and you get 60% - and then a bit of safety factor for errors in the assumptions and you reach 60%-70%.
It's also possible that they used more advanced models instead of just safety factors.

For starters, the herd immunity threshold equation is a guideline, not a hard-and-fast rule; there's an awful lot of room for error in just that.

Secondly, the herd immunity threshold graph is a logarithmic curve, and the 2-3 RO range is far towards the small end of the curve. This means that slight variations in the estimated R0 for COVID-19 will have huge effects on the estimated herd immunity threshold. Dip as low as R0 = 1.7? That threshold estimation approaches 40%. Go up to R0 = 4? Threshold is all of a sudden an estimated 75%. Measles, on the other hand, has an R0 value of 11-18, which places its threshold value at 91-94%.

Thirdly, R0 is not some kind of constant. It is affected by all sorts of variables. In fact, the whole goal of mitigating efforts is to reduce the effective R0 in a given area. So to say that the R0 value of a specific virus is a very specific, discrete number is entirely misleading. You can say that the observed R0 value in a specific area over a specific time is a value, or that the estimated median R0 is a value, but you can't apply that number to all areas, all outbreaks, especially future ones.

The suspected R0 value of this virus has definitely fluctuated over the course of the research being done, and ultimately, diseases have an R0 range, not an R0 value. SARS, for example, has a reported R0 range of 2-5, meaning that the herd immunity threshold for SARS would be a fairly wide range of 50-80%.

That suggested R0 value of 2.3 came from a study done on the Diamond Princess cruise ship. Another study, this one done on mainland China, estimated an R0 range of 2.24 to 3.58.

The other, more salient, problem in evaluating the R0 range is the increasingly obvious large numbers of asymptomatic infections. If a sufficient number of asymptomatic cases are not counted in the evaluation of the estimated R0, then the real R0 value will be higher as a result.

The whole point of all of this is to say that we're talking about guesses, based upon guesses, based upon incomplete information, being used to state a percentage on a chart that is at best an approximation. Quite simply, we could just use the SARS conclusions as a base, and suggest that this pandemic will be likely to affect 50-80% of the population.

So perhaps me saying that it's a "WAG" is unfair. But it's akin to a scientific WAG (which was what I was really trying to imply), and is the really the best we can hope for during the course of the virus. It's going to be high, no matter what, but just don't treat any stated estimates as gospel.

The important part is that until you reach that threshold of 60-70% immune, due to being infected or vaccinated (when that becomes available - likely next year), we will get new outbreaks if we stop with current measures. If covid-19 actually spreads less during the warmer months that makes for an interesting fall and winter if we haven't reached those levels.

We're almost certainly past the point of being able to contain this for good, period. This coronavirus will likely take it's place alongside the other coronaviruses that humans continue to pass around each season without realizing it. The good news is that, should this happen, people will gradually build up more and more resistance to it, so that by the time they get to an age where it would be more dangerous, they will have already built up some resistance to the disease, dulling its effect.

Additionally if we keep vulnerable people safe during peak disease time they will not get it then, and if we reach herd immunity we avoid new outbreaks so they don't get it later.

These people will unfortunately be at high risk for the rest of their lives, so flu season is going to be especially hard on the older generation for years to come.

That's what happens if you understand science and think rationally (or cynically).

The implication that I'm not thinking scientifically and/or rationally is hilarious, thanks.

[Rogue Karl]

I think you missed the point of my statement.



For starters, the herd immunity threshold equation is a guideline, not a hard-and-fast rule; there's an awful lot of room for error in just that.

Secondly, the herd immunity threshold graph is a logarithmic curve, and the 2-3 RO range is far towards the small end of the curve. This means that slight variations in the estimated R0 for COVID-19 will have huge effects on the estimated herd immunity threshold. Dip as low as R0 = 1.7? That threshold estimation approaches 40%. Go up to R0 = 4? Threshold is all of a sudden an estimated 75%. Measles, on the other hand, has an R0 value of 11-18, which places its threshold value at 91-94%.

Thirdly, R0 is not some kind of constant. It is affected by all sorts of variables. In fact, the whole goal of mitigating efforts is to reduce the effective R0 in a given area. So to say that the R0 value of a specific virus is a very specific, discrete number is entirely misleading. You can say that the observed R0 value in a specific area over a specific time is a value, or that the estimated median R0 is a value, but you can't apply that number to all areas, all outbreaks, especially future ones.

The suspected R0 value of this virus has definitely fluctuated over the course of the research being done, and ultimately, diseases have an R0 range, not an R0 value. SARS, for example, has a reported R0 range of 2-5, meaning that the herd immunity threshold for SARS would be a fairly wide range of 50-80%.

That suggested R0 value of 2.3 came from a study done on the Diamond Princess cruise ship. Another study, this one done on mainland China, estimated an R0 range of 2.24 to 3.58.

The other, more salient, problem in evaluating the R0 range is the increasingly obvious large numbers of asymptomatic infections. If a sufficient number of asymptomatic cases are not counted in the evaluation of the estimated R0, then the real R0 value will be higher as a result.

The whole point of all of this is to say that we're talking about guesses, based upon guesses, based upon incomplete information, being used to state a percentage on a chart that is at best an approximation. Quite simply, we could just use the SARS conclusions as a base, and suggest that this pandemic will be likely to affect 50-80% of the population.

So perhaps me saying that it's a "WAG" is unfair. But it's akin to a scientific WAG (which was what I was really trying to imply), and is the really the best we can hope for during the course of the virus. It's going to be high, no matter what, but just don't treat any stated estimates as gospel.



We're almost certainly past the point of being able to contain this for good, period. This coronavirus will likely take it's place alongside the other coronaviruses that humans continue to pass around each season without realizing it. The good news is that, should this happen, people will gradually build up more and more resistance to it, so that by the time they get to an age where it would be more dangerous, they will have already built up some resistance to the disease, dulling its effect.



These people will unfortunately be at high risk for the rest of their lives, so flu season is going to be especially hard on the older generation for years to come.



The implication that I'm not thinking scientifically and/or rationally is hilarious, thanks.

Is there a point to herd immunity with a virus were you get reinfection instead of resistance or immunity?

That or the nightmare scenario is true and it's like herpes simply going dormant but never leaving you.

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People are being discouraged from using masks because they don't aid, unless you're sick than it keeps the germs inside. Caregivers need them more.

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https://www.pcgamer.com/uk/the-resea...e-coronavirus/

Its possible but unlikely... they are being discouraged because there isn't enough for health workers...

[Forogil]

I think you missed the point of my statement.

No.

For starters, the herd immunity threshold equation is a guideline, not a hard-and-fast rule; there's an awful lot of room for error in just that.

Obviously - but it's not fair to call it a "guess" either.

The implication that I'm not thinking scientifically and/or rationally

seems to have hit you.

To show that you think rationally don't just dismiss numbers as "guesses", but have natural curiosity to find out why they are used, don't just try to figure out facts to try to show that you were right after all.

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Is there a point to herd immunity with a virus were you get reinfection instead of resistance or immunity?

Not really, but that seems unlikely to be the case for this virus. Likely just incorrect tests or possibly rare cases.

If you don't get immunity for some time it's normally because it's mutated too much as for the seasonal flu (which differs between years, doesn't seem to be the case here yet) - or you never get rid off it (e.g. except for a few cases there is no HIV-immunity). Simply put, if the immune system can fight the disease once it keeps that information for some time.

[PhaelixWW]

Is there a point to herd immunity with a virus were you get reinfection instead of resistance or immunity?

That or the nightmare scenario is true and it's like herpes simply going dormant but never leaving you.

With most viruses, reinfection from the same strain is very unlikely. There were some early reports of people being reinfected by COVID-19 which had me worried, but it's beginning to look like those were false cases. In some cases, it was because a supposedly long incubation time was suspected of being two illnesses (but was more likely just a single illness from a second, unknown exposure), and cases where people tested positive after being considered "recovered". Those cases suggest that the fragments of the virus remain for a suitably longer period of time than normal, but the people are otherwise still healthy, and more recent reports suggest that they're no longer infectious at that point.

That all puts this virus in line with pretty much all viruses in that regard.

The bigger issue is that coronaviruses are single-strand RNA (ssRNA), which are heavily prone to mutation. Those mutations are not always going to make the virus worse for humans, mind, but it does raise the possibility that there will be sufficient mutations down the line to allow the virus to reinfect people with a different-enough strain.

[Rogue Karl]

No.


Obviously - but it's not fair to call it a "guess" either.


seems to have hit you.

To show that you think rationally don't just dismiss numbers as "guesses", but have natural curiosity to find out why they are used, don't just try to figure out facts to try to show that you were right after all.

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Not really, but that seems unlikely to be the case for this virus. Likely just incorrect tests or possibly rare cases.

If you don't get immunity for some time it's normally because it's mutated too much as for the seasonal flu (which differs between years, doesn't seem to be the case here yet) - or you never get rid off it (e.g. except for a few cases there is no HIV-immunity). Simply put, if the immune system can fight the disease once it keeps that information for some time.

I just have my doubts immunity is possible but I'm also not a expect. It is just with reinfection rates as high as 14% and traces of the virus found in patients who have been " cured" for weeks at this point. I doubt this is a case of immunity but rather something that simply weakens you over and over again till you essentially collapse.

It attacks the body in the same way HIV does by using the white blood cells as attack vectors rather then being destroyed by then.