Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[Elegiac]

Did I seriously just have to read a short novel starting with the assumption that businesses are protected by the 14th Amendment?

Christ and allah. Y'all are absolutely desperate to paint yourselves as victims.

[PACOX]

I'm half expecting local lockdowns to be put back in place. Even more places have reclosed their lobbies today.

[Omega10]

You do know that the world is round and in February, it was summer in Australia?

Speaking of corona and Australia:

Completely awesome video. Thank you for sharing it.

[Puupi]

This hot temperature debacle is amusing.

You know what country has the second highest amount of infections and dead in the world and has the most active epidemic right now? Brazil.

So we can stop the temperature and sunlight talk right there.

[Thepersona]

This hot temperature debacle is amusing.

You know what country has the second highest amount of infections and dead in the world and has the most active epidemic right now? Brazil.

So we can stop the temperature and sunlight talk right there.

Well, we're the country with the most active infections per capita (of at least 5+ million inhabitants). My government totally fucked up the response of COVID, and now we're on our 6th week of partial (NOT TOTAL BTW, ONLY PARTIAL) lockdown, while cases are still rising. Mind you, i live in the south of Chile ATM, and in my city they re-opened the shopping mall, ignoring the calls of pretty much everyone in the city to shut it down and put the city on lock down (as cases are still on the rise).
What's with the right wing governments (or conservative governments) and the abysmal response to this virus?

Also, i have (small) hope that my country starts going back to normal in september/october, when (taps wood) some effective antibody treatments gets rolled out.

- - - Updated - - -

Arizona temperature is 110 degrees F.
Trump said the virus cannot survive at 90 degrees.

It cant. After a few hours. And that's a problem tho, mainly because people cannot maintain some mask usage. The only thing we can do is pray that Oxford rolls it's vaccine in october/november.

[xenogear3]

This hot temperature debacle is amusing.

You know what country has the second highest amount of infections and dead in the world and has the most active epidemic right now? Brazil.

So we can stop the temperature and sunlight talk right there.

Brazil is in winter right now.
The coldest month in Brazil is June !

[MCMLXXXII]

Brazil is in winter right now.
The coldest month in Brazil is June !

It is winter. But I wouldn't call 24 degrees celsius cold.

[Breccia]

Posted without further comment.

Coronavirus 2nd Wave? Nope, The U.S. Is Still Stuck In The 1st One

Just weeks after parts of the U.S. began reopening, coronavirus infections are on the upswing in several states, including Arizona, Utah, Texas and Florida. Dramatic increases in daily case counts have given rise to some unsettling questions: Is the U.S. at the start of a second wave? Have states reopened too soon? And have the recent widespread demonstrations against racial injustice inadvertently added fuel to the fire?

The short, unpleasant answer to the first question is that the U.S. has not even gotten through the current first wave of infections. Since peaking at around 31,000 average new daily cases on April 10, new daily cases dropped to around 22,000 on average by mid-May and have stayed almost steady over the last four weeks. Nationwide more than 800 people continue to die day after day.

Prominent forecasters are predicting a slow but steady accumulation of additional deaths between now and Oct. 1 — more than 56,000 by one estimate, around 90,000 by one another.

"We really never quite finished the first wave," says Dr. Ashish Jha, a professor of global health at Harvard University. "And it doesn't look like we are going to anytime soon."

That said, forecasters say, we could still be due for a true second wave later in the year, citing growing evidence that colder weather could lead to a surge in coronavirus cases.

Why we're stuck

So why is the U.S. stuck in a coronavirus plateau despite months of widespread social distancing? To explain, it helps to get a bit technical. The key indicator at issue is what's called the "reproduction number" of the coronavirus — or the R for short — essentially a proxy for how powerfully infection is spreading in your community. It tells you, for each individual who is infected, how many other people this person will go on to infect. When the reproduction number is above 1, case counts will spiral upward exponentially. When it gets to well below 1 and stays there, outbreaks subside.

For example, if the reproduction number is 2, then one person goes on to infect two others. Those two people go on to infect four others. Those four go on to infect eight, then 16 and so on. If you assume, say, a six-day interval between each new round of infections — in just over a month, that one initial person will have launched a chain that has infected 127 people.

Most estimates are that early this year, when no measures were being taken to keep the coronavirus in check, the reproduction number in the U.S. was above 2.

The stay-at-home measures and other social distancing efforts that states undertook this spring served to push the reproduction number to slightly below 1 — to 0.91, according to an estimate by Youyang Gu, an independent modeler whose work is highly regarded by prominent epidemiologists.

This halted the upward spiral of cases. But because the reproduction number was still so close to 1, the curve of new infections never really bent sharply downward. Essentially most of the U.S. reached a kind of steady state — with each infected person passing the virus on to one new person in a regular drip-drip of new infections and new deaths.

Now that states have opened up, the reproduction number has started to creep back up above 1. According to Gu's analysis, that is now the case in more than two-thirds of the states.

So far, at least, the reproduction number has been hovering at just above 1. Assuming that remains the case, the U.S. won't see the kind of runaway run-up in cases that was so alarming in New York. But it does mean cases and deaths will continue to accrue steadily.

"If things stay basically status quo and we continue doing what we're doing, we're going to continue seeing 25,000 to 30,000 additional deaths a month for the foreseeable future," Jha says.

[Puupi]

Brazil is in winter right now.
The coldest month in Brazil is June !

Half of Brazil is at the equator. Do you know how that works?

[Forogil]

I'm deeply amused that people seem to forget that the seasons are opposite on the other side of the hemisphere.

Or that the "Don't worry, hot weather will kill it!" bullshit has been debunked for the better part of what...since it was initially brought up by people with no medical or scientific training and don't know what the fuck they're talking about?

It's more complicated - many medical professionals believe that it may spread less during summer in temperate regions (tropical regions are a bit different) - due to a combination of humidity, temperature, UV light, possibly schools closing for summer, etc.

https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-c...armer-weather/
And also https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....act_id=3550308

However, spreading less isn't the same as not spreading at all - and medical professionals also understand that if that happens the same causes will likely make it re-appear during the fall and winter (seasonal respiratory illnesses like flu and cold might cause a problem as well - if they start spreading more it that might cause confusion and overwhelm testing capacity again).

Some non-medical persons then took "may spread a bit less" and turned it into "stop spreading completely", and ignored the part about the fall.

[Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang]

There are some new cases in Beijing apparently.

A food market was shut down.

Read that there is a partial lockdown enforced on 11 neighborhoods.

[Tuor]

It is winter. But I wouldn't call 24 degrees celsius cold.

It can snow in sowthern states of Brazil, just not most years.

But yes, 24ºC - 28ºC is the normal range of temperatures for all the regions north of S. Paulo.

[Masark]

The data scientist Florida fired is off doing her own thing to get the information out.

https://outline.com/76T5m5

https://experience.arcgis.com/experi...1c643c195314e/

[Tuor]

I Didn't knew were to post this, so i'm posting it here.

The R.E.M. were right after all, lol.

[PhaelixWW]

I Didn't knew were to post this, so i'm posting it here.

The R.E.M. were right after all, lol.

First, don't get your news from the NY Post (or the Sun for that matter).

Second, the "news" was based not just on a conspiracy theory, but one idiot's momentary lapse in thinking and a complete lack of understanding of the difference between the Julian and Gregorian calendars.

[Endus]

I Didn't knew were to post this, so i'm posting it here.

The R.E.M. were right after all, lol.

The Julian Calendar was nearly identical to the Gregorian. 365.25 days in a year (a leap year every 4 years) for the Julian, and 365.2425 for the Gregorian (due to more accurate measurements). The Julian Calendar ran for about 1600 years, before being replaced by the Gregorian in 1582, and in that time the calendar had "drifted" off by about 11 days. Today, the divergence would be about 13 days.

The article there presumes that the 11-day adjustment required on adopting the Gregorian would have to be made every single year, as the the difference between the two calendars was 11 days a year, when it's more like about 10 minutes a year.

So no; it wouldn't be 2012 right now if we were still under the Julian calendar. The date today would be June 1, 2020, not anywhere close to 2012.

[LeGin Tufnel]

I've never understood why people take such great pleasure from wishing the end of the world on us all. The ultimate "I told you so"?

[Mayhem]

The Julian Calendar was nearly identical to the Gregorian. 365.25 days in a year (a leap year every 4 years) for the Julian, and 365.2425 for the Gregorian (due to more accurate measurements). The Julian Calendar ran for about 1600 years, before being replaced by the Gregorian in 1582, and in that time the calendar had "drifted" off by about 11 days. Today, the divergence would be about 13 days.

The article there presumes that the 11-day adjustment required on adopting the Gregorian would have to be made every single year, as the the difference between the two calendars was 11 days a year, when it's more like about 10 minutes a year.

So no; it wouldn't be 2012 right now if we were still under the Julian calendar. The date today would be June 1, 2020, not anywhere close to 2012.

The mind-boggling idea that no one would notice for hundreds of years that the weather patterns just don't add up anymore and it's suddenly snowing in mid-July and melting hot in December.

[Forogil]

The Julian Calendar was nearly identical to the Gregorian. 365.25 days in a year (a leap year every 4 years) for the Julian, and 365.2425 for the Gregorian (due to more accurate measurements). The Julian Calendar ran for about 1600 years, before being replaced by the Gregorian in 1582, and in that time the calendar had "drifted" off by about 11 days. Today, the divergence would be about 13 days.

The article there presumes that the 11-day adjustment required on adopting the Gregorian would have to be made every single year, as the the difference between the two calendars was 11 days a year, when it's more like about 10 minutes a year.

Actually it's more confusing.

When the Gregorian calendar was adopted in catholic countries such as Spain and its colonies in 1582 the difference was 10 days.
The difference wasn't 11 days until the 1700s when most protestant countries adopted the Gregorian calendar, e.g. UK and its colonies in N. America in 1752 - it became 13 days in the 1900s when Russia finally adopted it.

The name of the alleged scientist suggest that he is from the Philippines (there is some with that name) which was taken by Spanish in 1565 and then by the US in 1898; and later independent; so it should have adopted the Gregorian calendar in 1582 (or a bit later) with a 10 day shift, so it's unclear why the UK/US numbers (11 days since 1752) are used?

Oh, and on-topic the Philippines have had a lockdown, it seems they have lifted it and cases are now increasing.

[unfilteredJW]

Hey.

Someone tell Florida it should be fine because of the heat.

I fucking hate this state. Panhandle is full to the brim with mask less Mouth breathers from the rest of th South.