How the European Union may not survive the Coronavirus

[CostinR]

NOTE: While I am aware of the megathread the purpose here is for a more political discussion on the EU and it's ( horrible ) response.

The response in the European Union in dealing with the coronavirus has been nothing short of a complete and utter disaster of unprecedented scale. While countries like Italy did move swiftly and decisively to deal with the virus, imposing a travel ban at the end of January to travelers from China at about the same time as the United States, though notably without requiring a self-quarantine to all travelers that had gone to China like the US did ( at least I haven't anything to indicate that Italy did that ), other countries in the European Union did not move so quickly. The result is that Europe is at the center of the worldwide pandemic and if the actions taken in 2008 are any indication this is only the beginning of a very rough period for Europe.

The Center for American Progress has the following to say: https://www.americanprogress.org/iss...dest-test-yet/

The EU already has a lot on its plate and is stressed from struggling to deal with the fallout from Brexit, combat climate change, settle internal divisions, and counter influence efforts from China and Russia. The coronavirus crisis is highlighting and exacerbating the serious gaps in the current EU structure. Understandably, EU member states are turning inward, focusing on themselves and their citizens instead of working through the EU to contain the outbreak. It couldn’t be clearer that Brussels lacks the tools and political will to effectively aid member states that are in dire need of help or act as a driving force in coordinating the global response. This is a test that the EU, as presently designed, is doomed to fail.

The coronavirus is hammering Italy, overwhelming its hospitals, causing thousands of deaths, and suspending economic activity. But this isn’t just bad for Italy. Italy is Europe’s fourth-largest economy and, crucially, a member of the eurozone. As the crisis has hit, bond spreads between Italy and Germany have grown, meaning that the interest rates for Italian banks to borrow are far higher than they are for German banks. The problem is that the two countries use the same currency—meaning that, in a crisis, Italy could see its borrowing rates soar as lenders search for safe harbors.

This pandemic is similar to the 2008 recession in scope and severity. A repeat of the drawn-out Greek debt crisis would be disastrous for all of the EU. Italy’s GDP is nearly 10 times bigger than Greece’s. Its economic collapse would threaten the survivability of the euro, as the cost for a bailout would be astronomical. The ramifications of such a collapse would be devastating for the entire EU and the global economy.

While Europe created a common monetary policy, it never created a common fiscal policy. When there is a recession in the United States, the federal government tends to intervene, injecting a stimulus in the form of spending and tax cuts to keep the national economy moving. The EU doesn’t do this, and, during the 2008 economic crisis, this lack of a common fiscal policy was exposed.

In 2008, the EU was put to the test and barely averted catastrophe. At the direction of Germany, one of its most powerful member states, the EU forced Greece to undertake draconian cuts in order to receive the funds necessary to prevent Greek banks from collapsing. Ultimately, much of that funding went straight into the coffers of international lenders, many of them German lenders such as Deutsche Bank.

Germany and other eurozone members sought to make an example of Greece in order to show other eurozone countries that profligacy would be punished. The results were predictable: Greece experienced an economic downturn on par with the Great Depression in the United States and has only recently begun to recover. What could have been a manageable crisis spiraled and spread to the rest of Europe. Spain, which had an economic surplus before the crisis, was plunged into a deep recession—as was most of southern Europe. Instead of seeking to stimulate the European economy, the EU didn’t step in, causing the spreads in bond rates between EU members to deepen and further prolonging the recession.

Ultimately, the European Central Bank (ECB) stepped in and replicated the response taken by the U.S. Federal Reserve. This stemmed the crisis, and Europe began to return to growth. However, Europe hasn’t learned from the crisis of 2008.

While German Chancellor Angela Merkel is rightly praised in the United States for her moral leadership and the dignity she showed during the 2015 migration crisis, her conservative economic approach has been detrimental to Europe’s growth. Merkel’s outlook is rooted in highly conservative German economic thinking, and Germany’s clout within the EU has meant that austerity has reigned in the EU since the 2008 crash. Moreover, German reticence has put the breaks on efforts to bolster the EU’s fiscal and economic firefighting tools. Merkel has rejected French President Emmanuel Macron’s efforts to reform the EU. Therefore, the EU is approaching this crisis with a similar set of limited tools that it had in 2008.

The last boded part is what's critical. We're talking of a global pandemic that in terms of the damage it will do could be just as bad as the 1918 Spanish Flu and the Great Depression if we don't keep it under control. We can control it. We have money, resources and knowledge to do so. We have the ability and organization available...but we'll likely screw it up just as Europe badly handled the 2008 crisis.

Because at the end of the day Merkel and the Germans have no damned interest in spending the trillions, yes trillions of euros to deal with the crisis. In the United States everyone from Pelosi to Trump to McConnell to Schumer are talking about a 1 trillion+ stimulus package that's likely going to get passed over the next week, and you can be certain that it's just start and more packages will be needed, while in Europe everyone seems to be out for themselves. Macron has good intentions and ideas, but France doesn't have the capability and power to tackle this issue without the help of Germany...and Germany doesn't care.

A final point: Boris Johnson very publicly threw his support behind the idea of herd immunity, as in get 70%+ of the population infected to deal with the virus. Which given the 2% death rate is a surefire way to get a lot of people killed, he backed away from that as the Imperial College told him he'd have 250.000 dead britons on his hands but just a few days ago Mark Rutte, the Prime Minister of the Netherlands embraced a similar plan...while Angela Merkel made a statement saying we can expect 60-70% of Germans to get infected.

The insanity of this plan is that beyond getting a lot of people killed even in the best case scenario is we have no notion of what his virus can do long-term. We have no real treatment, no vaccine and no understanding of the effects on the people that are infected and recovered, so why make such statements only a few days ago? I personally believe because our great leaders don't want to accept just how painful dealing with this will be.

We're talking 1-2 years to get a vaccine and/or treatment. We're talking of an economic crisis that will only get worse and worse over the next few months and the people in charge aren't interested in solving the issue. With the Internal and External Borders the EU closed the union has taken a hammering.

Some countries, especially those like Italy, Spain, Greece, Croatia etc. that depend significantly on tourism are going to be hammered, while others will escape with significantly less damage. If there was any kind of measure of European solidarity the countries better off would help those that will struggle.

I don't expect that and I've seen the leaders of Europe do far more harm to the Union in the last three months then nationalist leaders managed to do in well over a decade.

[Pann]

I doubt this thread will remain open for long as it is bound end up in bickering.

But the whole world is likely to be a very different place once we emerge from the coronavirus pandemic and the EU will be no different. The lack of fiscal union has always been a cause for concern should the world face another crisis and coronavirus is going to test this to limits. It's possible that crisis will result in the EU accelerating its integration plans or maybe it will decided that a looser arrangement - like the EEC - is needed but I don't think it will spell the end of the EU (at least I hope not) but one thing is sure - things will not be same.

I would also point out that the UK's coronavirus planning was never to rely solely on herd immunity and that it has been changed as when the government and their advisers feel necessary.

[noremorze]

but just a few days ago Mark Rutte, the Prime Minister of the Netherlands embraced a similar plan.

No, he didn't. People really need to quit parroting that bullshit.

[CostinR]

No, he didn't. People really need to quit parroting that bullshit.

That "bullshit" was reported far and wide by respected media outlets. From politico.eu just yesterday:

https://www.politico.eu/article/rutt...t-coronavirus/

Mark Rutte is sticking to his guns on coronavirus — and refused to shut down the Netherlands "for a year, or even longer."

Lawmakers and health experts have criticized the Dutch government's approach, which they say is too lax.

But Prime Minister Rutte on Wednesday defended his government’s stance of developing so-called group (or herd) immunity to coronavirus, deflecting the criticism as a “misunderstanding.”

"The objective of the approach is to not overburden the health care system, as well as protect the elderly and vulnerable," Rutte said during a parliament debate.

"Immunity is an additional effect, which is built up very slowly over time. It helps, but it is not the objective of the approach — it's not a goal to infect as many people as possible."

He's trying to claim otherwise, but also refusing to shut down the country for a year or longer...because he doesn't want to do since the cost would be incredible. Basically he wants to have his cake and eat too. You don't get that, and he's been forced to implement certain measures over the last couple days that he, and other European leaders, really didn't want to.

It took until this monday to close the external borders of the EU, and even then only because our dear leaders want to keep all the internal borders open which is quite frankly just insane at this stage.

[noremorze]

There's not a single country who will go for a complete shutdown for that long of a period. The measures taken here are very similar to other European countries. Schools are closed, elderly care facilities are closed, pubs/restaurants are closed etc. On top of that alot of businesses decide to close on their own, take extra precautions etc. It isn't really all that different from other European countries. People seem to think that going on a full lockdown for 2 weeks will make the virus go away. It won't, the moment you lift the lockdown, it starts all over again. It might be necessary, but countries will not go in a full lockdown untill a vaccine is available.

The last part of your quote explains it very well "Immunity is an additional effect, which is built up very slowly over time. It helps, but it is not the objective of the approach — it's not a goal to infect as many people as possible.". So thanks for providing that quote which clearly says they do not embrace that plan, it's simply a side effect.

There's alot of uncertainty about what the aproach should be, different experts with different opinions. Sadly only time will tell whether or not it was the right aproach.

[Tuor]

Yeasterday my country, Portugal, declared the State of Emergency, according to the president speach one of the goals is to keep economy running, and at this time, with the declared State of Emergency, if required, the Governement can assign people to work on specific targeted areas of interest.

Other EU countries are doing similar things. The economy is going down, that's a fact, but its not a total shutdown.

[Dezerte]

Enacting martial law with a complete lock-down on a country will save more lives from being lost due to the corona-virus. However, shutting down in wait of a vaccine will bring many issues and problems (lack of goods & services) - some which may themselves cause greater unrest and loss of life for the country.

And generally speaking, nationalists are more inward-thinking and this crisis may lead to an increase in their popular support, further destabilizing the unity of the EU.

[AeneasBK]

More damage is going to be done by what people think might happen, than by what will/would actually happen if people were completely ignorant of this virus.

But hey, people are stupid. Thats not news.

[CostinR]

Enacting martial law with a complete lock-down on a country will save more lives from being lost due to the corona-virus. However, shutting down in wait of a vaccine will bring many issues and problems (lack of goods & services) - some which may themselves cause greater unrest and loss of life for the country..

We need virtually all European countries where there's more then 1000 cases to adopt the exact the same kind of lockdown that Italy did, with some places with severe enough cases going down the complete lockdown path of Wuhan.

Anything else will leave us with hundreds of thousands if not millions of people dead across Europe. We're already seeing a vast increase in the number of cases and a massive increase in the death toll. Italy has surpassed China in terms of the number of people dead.

Will we do it? Only when it's too late by the looks of it. I am grateful beyond measure my government has been forcing everyone who traveled to any hotspot of the virus to isolate themselves for two weeks for a while now, it has saved us a lot of pain but Europe needs to do more, a lot more, as a whole.

The fact that it's been only a few days ago that people like Rutte, Merkel, Macron and others have been forced to adopt measures that really should have been implemented weeks ago is really telling about the competency of our leadership.

[Low Hanging Fruit]

I doubt it will die. But it is pretty obvious it needs to have a better plan than it currently got which is understandable. It isn't like this happens on this scale all the time. In fact, I think the previous outbreaks that turned out to be rather mild were the problem because it just automatically put this one into that category for a lot of the west. But when an organization has the derpy level of one ran by Trump than it obviously needs to re-evaluate.

[CostinR]

But when an organization has the derpy level of one ran by Trump than it obviously needs to re-evaluate.

I don't want to talk too much about Trump here, since one of my main reasons I made the thread was there was very little discussion here about Europe and too damned much about the orange man in the White House, but I'll be frank that orange boy is looking rather damned attractive as a leader right now versus the absolute imbeciles in charge over here.

When a reality TV show host that struggles to a read single sheet of paper is proving more capable and willing to take the necessary measures to deal with this pandemic vs our highly educated and intelligent leaders...well it doesn't fill me with a great deal of hope about Europe. It's not that they are failing on a EU level with their handling of the crisis, which they are, but they are failing to handle this properly in their own countries.

Euronazi attempts to hijack coronavirus issue to push sad anti-eu agenda no one gives a shit about any more.

/thread

Clearly someone with a burner account has nothing better to do with their time, well enjoy it while you can.

Anti-EU agenda. The EU needs to get it's shit together to handle the worst crisis in modern history outside of the world wars, because that's how bad it is. Their actions over the last couple of weeks have shown them utterly incapable of doing of so.

[Orange Joe]

there is a megathread for a reason.......

[Fuiking]

I don't want to talk too much about Trump here, since one of my main reasons I made the thread was there was very little discussion here about Europe and too damned much about the orange man in the White House, but I'll be frank that orange boy is looking rather damned attractive as a leader right now versus the absolute imbeciles in charge over here.

When a reality TV show host that struggles to a read single sheet of paper is proving more capable and willing to take the necessary measures to deal with this pandemic vs our highly educated and intelligent leaders...well it doesn't fill me with a great deal of hope about Europe. It's not that they are failing on a EU level with their handling of the crisis, which they are, but they are failing to handle this properly in their own countries.



Clearly someone with a burner account has nothing better to do with their time, well enjoy it while you can.

Anti-EU agenda. The EU needs to get it's shit together to handle the worst crisis in modern history outside of the world wars, because that's how bad it is. Their actions over the last couple of weeks have shown them utterly incapable of doing of so.

Correction: The Netherlands has shown how incapable its goverment and instutions are.

Personally I'd love to drag van Drissel, and Mark (P)Rutte towards the Tribunal in Den Hague on account of manslaughter, and willfull neglignence.. but I highly doubt the Tribunal will remain there so long the dutch failgoverment doesnt change there herd immunity stance.

For the rest of the EU: Still got my hopes up.. I doubt they will fall/collapse, but sure as hell they will learn from this.

[Tuor]

For the rest of the EU: Still got my hopes up.. I doubt they will fall/collapse, but sure as hell they will learn from this.

The entire world will, not just Europe, sadly the entire world.

[Fuiking]

The entire world will, not just Europe, sadly the entire world.

That sounds bad.. then again, maybe it can be the start of something new, maybe better?

Im just afraid, afraid for my family, afraid for my friends, afraid for the innocent people in my nation...and other nations...

But if goverments are ''LALALALALAALALAALALALA we cant hear you, plebs!'' It makes me extremely frustrated. And threatening my PM with some whoopass.

[Howel]

Why is it always Germany and Merkel that has to cough up money whenever there is a problem? For the resentment that people hold towards them, they sure as heck do also require them to hand out a lot of money.

[CostinR]

Why is it always Germany and Merkel that has to cough up money whenever there is a problem? For the resentment that people hold towards them, they sure as heck do also require them to hand out a lot of money.

Because Germany is the wealthiest and most economically powerful country in the European Union, because when other European politicians try and push for measures such as Macron advocating for a strong response and reform they wage political warfare to stop them, because they've benefited hugely themselves as a country from the European Union to ensure they are rather prosperous. Because they've enforced draconian measures in the past on countries.

Because Angela Merkel has been painted as the leader of the free world, lot of a good that did.

If the European Union is to have any value then countries have to be willing to help each other in times of need without exception. My country right now has relatively few cases and we're quite likely going to be able to contain this entire situation far earlier then many others in the EU. When ( and if ) we do this should Romania help out our European neighbors or refuse to lift a finger because it's to our benefit to hoard our resources for our own benefit?

If the latter is the choice the EU is worthless. Germany gets brought up a lot in these discussions because they have the largest population, economy, wealth and a solid budget surplus. They are one the two leaders of Europe, the other being France, and they are in a superior position to France when it comes to resources.

[JohnBrown1917]

The entire world will, not just Europe, sadly the entire world.

Nah, at wo.. i mean best capitalism will fail. Most countries with are not suffering under it like Italy is. Not the Netherlands, Not Germany, Not even China which seems to be on a road of recovery.

[Sorshen]

Was only a matter of time till CostinR comes in with the armchair specialist anti-eu shit.

[Grapemask]

Of all the things MMO-C users (or I think the same user, a dozen times now) have told me will kill the European Union, I'm not sure the coronavirus is it.