statistics in gambling

[molliewoof]

hiya guys

so every now and again i put an an acca bet on football matches, this is where you place a bet on multiple games and the odds stack.

i was looking for tips and i found a website where they list the best picks, this might be like if barcelona were playing a third division spanish league side in the cup, you would bet them to win.

they say at the top though that each of these tips (about 5 a week across world football) were about 85% accurate

i dont really want to debate the quality of that statement but it got me thinking, if a loss is 15% likely in their eyes, what does that 15% become if i bet in two games in my original acca, then 3 etc.

please dont get into the specifics of the odds per game, lets just assume each bet is 85% win 15% loss as i could be betting on the brazilian league, which i know nothing about and all of the odds i bet are very favoured so low

i did google this but dont know how to ask it succinctly enough to get the answer i want

thanks all

[StillMcfuu]

hiya guys

so every now and again i put an an acca bet on football matches, this is where you place a bet on multiple games and the odds stack.

i was looking for tips and i found a website where they list the best picks, this might be like if barcelona were playing a third division spanish league side in the cup, you would bet them to win.

they say at the top though that each of these tips (about 5 a week across world football) were about 85% accurate

i dont really want to debate the quality of that statement but it got me thinking, if a loss is 15% likely in their eyes, what does that 15% become if i bet in two games in my original acca, then 3 etc.

please dont get into the specifics of the odds per game, lets just assume each bet is 85% win 15% loss as i could be betting on the brazilian league, which i know nothing about and all of the odds i bet are very favoured so low

i did google this but dont know how to ask it succinctly enough to get the answer i want

thanks all

Are these specifically win-lose bets or is it a points spread? I can see a site claiming 85% for a points spread style bet, because that's more difficult. Unless they are specifically saying that they beat the spread. IE if Barcelona plays a crappy team and they are supposed to win +4, when you place a bet for Barcelona, but they only win by 2, then you lose your bet.

My assumption without looking at the site is that it's point spread betting and the reason they only pick a few games to give "tips" on is because they are more sure bets for the site to post. Because of that, even if you win, you may turn 10 bucks into 10.50.

Honestly, if they could pick the winner 85% of the time, they would be rich because they would just keep betting and essentially never losing. But the games they are placing the reputation against are likely not worth margins to even bet for, especially considering what the bookie is going to take.

[molliewoof]

Are these specifically win-lose bets or is it a points spread? I can see a site claiming 85% for a points spread style bet, because that's more difficult. Unless they are specifically saying that they beat the spread. IE if Barcelona plays a crappy team and they are supposed to win +4, when you place a bet for Barcelona, but they only win by 2, then you lose your bet.

My assumption without looking at the site is that it's point spread betting and the reason they only pick a few games to give "tips" on is because they are more sure bets for the site to post. Because of that, even if you win, you may turn 10 bucks into 10.50.

Honestly, if they could pick the winner 85% of the time, they would be rich because they would just keep betting and essentially never losing. But the games they are placing the reputation against are likely not worth margins to even bet for, especially considering what the bookie is going to take.

Yeah they are extremely low odd bets, I may need to make 6 to get 4 - 1.

They are just win or lose, I'm not really a gambler, losing makes me too angry even though I probably only spend 30 pounds a year on it.

I suppose without all my extra wordage the main question is ... If one bet has a 15% chance of losing, what do two have ( you can probably take out the gambling aspect here, it is more the stacking I am interested in). I'm useless at maths

[Maell]

Yeah they are extremely low odd bets, I may need to make 6 to get 4 - 1.

They are just win or lose, I'm not really a gambler, losing makes me too angry even though I probably only spend 30 pounds a year on it.

I suppose without all my extra wordage the main question is ... If one bet has a 15% chance of losing, what do two have ( you can probably take out the gambling aspect here, it is more the stacking I am interested in). I'm useless at maths

Is has been a long time since i had to do anything with probabilities, but if i remember correctly you just multiply the chances.

85% * 85% or 0.85*0.85 = 0.7225
so it would be chance of winning bet as multiple bet with X number of games

1 Game = 85%
2 Games = 72.25%
3 Games = 61.41%
4 Games = 52.20%
5 Games = 44.37%

And so on.

[molliewoof]

Is has been a long time since i had to do anything with probabilities, but if i remember correctly you just multiply the chances.

85% * 85% or 0.85*0.85 = 0.7225
so it would be chance of winning bet as multiple bet with X number of games

1 Game = 85%
2 Games = 72.25%
3 Games = 61.41%
4 Games = 52.20%
5 Games = 44.37%

And so on.

thats brilliant thanks

its amazing how fast it gets so low!