Mega-Thread: 2020 United States General Election

[Breccia]

I saw on the news recently that when it comes to the Red counties that Biden is getting the majority of the mail in vote, which is all that's being counted now.

That's reassuring. But there is no gold medal for almost getting first place. Until the numbers actually flip, Trump is still ahead, and they haven't flipped yet.

Yes I'm aware half of you are saying "but if this trend continue--" and I'm just going to respond "everyone has a plan until they're punched in the face". I do not count on this trend continuing. Normal rules don't apply to anything Trump touches, and everyone here knows that.

- - - Updated - - -

I would also like it if the Secret Service or FBI paid Mr. Bannon a visit for those remarks

You know what, why not, they are both members of Trump's own WH. They'd be able to say "we were doing our job" with a straight face.

[Traveler Voltin]

why panic when its clear biden will win?

[cubby]

If I understand it correctly, ranked choice voting allows for instant run-offs. No need for a second election. Truthfully, ranked choice voting would probably be pretty good for this country.

Indeed - ranked voting is the best way to go. Fosters third parties. Allows people to vote for whom they WANT, rather than guessing who could win. Opens up all kinds of possibilities. Unfortunately, since all voting in America is state based, we'd need to change it 40+ times.

[Thepersona]

Well let's do PA then.

There are 451,000 votes left in PA and Biden needs to answer the 64,000 question.

There are two counties that are both heavily Biden and also 90% or under complete. There are a ton of red counties, but even though they're all smaller and also almost all closer to being done, at some point zombies overwhelm even STARS members. It's going to take me a while to run all those numbers, but the quick answer is Biden needs 57% or more of the remaining votes. Delaware County shows Biden 61.6% right on the edge, so it's "Philly vs. the rest of the state".

I just don't like those odds.

Philly has around 72-80k mail in ballots (w/o counting provisional and absentee, which per Nate Cohn, skew heavily democrat) left. And is expected to flip around 80/20 for Biden, which could all but erase the lead that Trump has, by itself.

Also, Erie, the bellwether of PA, flipped blue

[Ripster42]

If I understand it correctly, ranked choice voting allows for instant run-offs. No need for a second election. Truthfully, ranked choice voting would probably be pretty good for this country.

Yeah, really wish we'd get it around the country. I think maine's first election with it was within the last 4 years. Either 2016 or 2018, so maybe it'll catch on as more people hear about it.

[Redwyrm]

If I understand it correctly, ranked choice voting allows for instant run-offs. No need for a second election. Truthfully, ranked choice voting would probably be pretty good for this country.

And help a lot of third parties without fear of them being spoilers

[Ripster42]

Ok, gotcha - I had what you said mixed up there. That's how I thought Maine's ranked voting system worked. Thanks for clarifying.

No, you're totally right. I didn't explain it as clearly as I could have.

[Kallisto]

why panic when its clear biden will win?

2020
Trump
Still behind
We don't know the votes until they come in
Legal shenanigans can still happen even if they are technically illegal.
2020
Trump

Take your pick.

[Breccia]

Pro-Trump operatives coordinated viral #StopTheSteal events. Facebook shut them down.

In 2019, a group of right-wing political operatives promoted a fundraising website to build a section of border wall, and the site later became the subject of a money-laundering investigation. Now the same operatives are behind a Facebook group dedicated to delegitimizing election results that don't favor President Donald Trump, which went viral Thursday.

On Thursday afternoon, Facebook took down the page, called "Stop The Steal."

As members of the group repeatedly called for violence and a civil war, leading to turmoil inside Facebook, the group expanded at a rapid pace Thursday morning, topping out at about 350,000 profiles. The group pointed users to organized events, including one in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, on Thursday afternoon with a "#StopTheSteal" branding.

Facebook initially barred the group from appearing in searches involving the election and even direct searches for "stop the steal," but members of pro-Trump Facebook groups, as well as other social media networks and email lists, drove users directly to the Facebook group's URL.

Citing repeated "worrying calls for violence," Facebook pulled the group down by 2 p.m. ET.

"In line with the exceptional measures that we are taking during this period of heightened tension, we have removed the group 'Stop the Steal,' which was creating real-world events. The group was organized around the delegitimization of the election process, and we saw worrying calls for violence from some members of the group," a Facebook spokesperson said.

Several other smaller "Stop the Steal" groups remain on Facebook. A spokesperson said Facebook was "continuing to review additional content and will take action accordingly."

Trying to change political matters through threats and force is literally terrorism. Why are all these Trump supporters being literal terrorists?

[alexw]

Well let's do PA then.

There are 451,000 votes left in PA and Biden needs to answer the 64,000 question.

There are two counties that are both heavily Biden and also 90% or under complete. There are a ton of red counties, but even though they're all smaller and also almost all closer to being done, at some point zombies overwhelm even STARS members. It's going to take me a while to run all those numbers, but the quick answer is Biden needs 57% or more of the remaining votes. Delaware County shows Biden 61.6% right on the edge, so it's "Philly vs. the rest of the state".

I just don't like those odds.

You are looking at it all wrong. These are mail in votes. Even for the red counties its all mail in votes.

So ask yourself this, which candidate told his voters to vote in person, and which candidate told his voters to vote by mail if they could?

The result is that even for the red counties those mail in votes are predominantly Biden votes and not Trump ones.

[cubby]

That's reassuring. But there is no gold medal for almost getting first place. Until the numbers actually flip, Trump is still ahead, and they haven't flipped yet.

Yes I'm aware half of you are saying "but if this trend continue--" and I'm just going to respond "everyone has a plan until they're punched in the face". I do not count on this trend continuing. Normal rules don't apply to anything Trump touches, and everyone here knows that.

This is the only attitude to have right now. The pure ratfuckery that is the GOtrumP cannot go underestimated until Biden is sitting at the Resolute Desk.
Plus, it's all on Trump, who is immune.

[Traveler Voltin]

2020
Trump
Still behind
We don't know the votes until they come in
Legal shenanigans can still happen even if they are technically illegal.
2020
Trump

Take your pick.

also the electoral college vote later. i forgot about that one.

[Breccia]

Philly has around 72-80k mail in ballots (w/o counting provisional and absentee, which per Nate Cohn, skew heavily democrat) left. And is expected to flip around 80/20 for Biden, which could all but erase the lead that Trump has, by itself.

Okay. And the other 370,000 are from...

[Kathranis]

Trying to change political matters through threats and force is literally terrorism. Why are all these Trump supporters being literal terrorists?

Would love if legal ramifications actually came about for people trying to obstruct the voting process, but I wouldn't count on it.

[Thepersona]

PA under 60K

[For_The_Horde]

From one of the reddest county in AZ. FFS people, wait until the blue counties release their votes until you freak out

This is AZ, besides Maricopa there's Pima county, that's it, all the other counties have next to nobody living in them by comparison. Trump won Maricopa handily in 2016, but it was light blue in the 2018 election, its gonna probably skew to the right though so we'll have to see how much if any room is left by the end.

[Breccia]

The result is that even for the red counties those mail in votes are predominantly Biden votes and not Trump ones.

And until we had a discussion about Trump closing the gap in AZ, maybe I would have agreed with that.

[Ripster42]

Still behind

Well, not really. Biden is ahead in enough states to get 270. The rest? Yeah, sure. I'm not panicking, but I totally understand people being nervous after having the country be gaslit by its president for almost 4 years.

[Thepersona]

Okay. And the other 370,000 are from...

Mail in ballots which have skewed heavily democrat/come from cities. There are around 350-400k votes left in PA (250k of em in mail in ballots). the rest are provisional, which, as i said, skew heavily democrat.

[Zaydin]

why panic when its clear biden will win?

Because people are scarred by 2016 and worried about the GOPs efforts to rig the election.