Mega-Thread: 2020 United States General Election

[Adam Jensen]

I was happy with Biden's victory speech the other night.

Today I'm not so sure. He spoke of reconciliation and unity but how the hell are those things even possible? After hearing all these appalling things from Republican politicians, how do we reconcile with people who don't respect American democracy? How do you work with people who refuse to compromise?

[jonnysensible]

America is more polarized now more than ever, there were few ballots cast that weren't full Republican or Democratic for the entire ticket. Moderate Democrats keep trying to convince people that they need to move right to win over a mythical "moderate Republican" that doesn't exist. The key to winning races for Democrats is now turning out the 1/3 of their base that is younger and more progressive, because they have to win on voter turnout, they cannot win on convincing Republicans to vote for them, they cannot win if they don't get young people and progressives to turn out for them because Republicans will not.

I'm not sure any of this is true. Median voter theorem still holds, and if anything looks like it was extremely relevant to this election cycle. This reads like a projection of what you think and not of reality.

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I was happy with Biden's victory speech the other night.

Today I'm not so sure. He spoke of reconciliation and unity but how the hell are those things even possible? After hearing all these appalling things from Republican politicians, how do we reconcile with people who don't respect American democracy? How do you work with people who refuse to compromise?

Arent these just things you say because you have to and then you absolutely put the previous cunts to the sword

[Flower Milk]

I'm not sure any of this is true. Median voter theorem still holds, and if anything looks like it was extremely relevant to this election cycle. This reads like a projection of what you think and not of reality.

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Arent these just things you say because you have to and then you absolutely put the previous cunts to the sword

There are no more "moderate" voters left in this country, that's why you saw the media talking about how few undecided voters there were. Do you disagree that America is more polarized now more than ever? There is election data to show that there were very few ballots out there that voted for a mix of Republican/Democrat, it's just not a thing anymore that any party should be going after. The key to winning elections now is getting your likely voters to turn out for you, turn out is key.

[Very Tired]

People thought the riots would be bad if Trump won the election. Now I can only imagine how much worse they will be if Trump pulls some BS to keep himself in office.

[draynay]

People thought the riots would be bad if Trump won the election. Now I can only imagine how much worse they will be if Trump pulls some BS to keep himself in office.

The only appropriate response to such an act would be outright revolution.

[jonnysensible]

There are no more "moderate" voters left in this country, that's why you saw the media talking about how few undecided voters there were.

how does being moderate equate to whether you are undecided or not? you are mixing different ideas here.

Do you disagree that America is more polarized now more than ever?

I agree that America is more polarized than ever.

There is election data to show that there were very few ballots out there that voted for a mix of Republican/Democrat

and?

it's just not a thing anymore that any party should be going after. The key to winning elections now is getting your likely voters to turn out for you, turn out is key.

This a half truth. Turnout obviously is important again the party should absolutely go after all potential voters. You prentending they dont exist or that they shouldnt sure is ideologically convenient...


have you read anything by anyone who works for the dems in political data science and modelling behind why they do what they do?

[Flower Milk]

What worries me most about the "coup" narrative is that you can see a clear factional divide in the Republican party about who is buying into it, the religious radicals supporting it like Mike Pompeo, vs the rich donor puppets not buying into it like McConnell. I think there are far more Republican voters who will back the "coup" narrative on the basis of religion ("Trump was chosen by God" they say) over Republicans beholden to their rich donors telling them that it's not a thing. I think media like Fox News will ultimately say the coup isn't a thing to protect their profits and that could sway people, but I would not underestimate the radical religious right in this country at all.

[Kaleredar]

People thought the riots would be bad if Trump won the election. Now I can only imagine how much worse they will be if Trump pulls some BS to keep himself in office.

So far, all of those efforts have hit a brick wall.

[Endus]

but you can make some assumptions here too. 1st, Biden was projected to win by a much higher margin. Thus, they won and failed at the same time.

Polling is an exercise that is at least as much art as it is mathematics. There are assumptions made and weightings adjusted to produce results the pollsters think are closest to the true feelings of the electorate.

All polling issues this season demonstrate is that there was a change in voter motivations, that weren't reflected in the weightings, which shouldn't really be that big a surprise as everyone expected there to be a major shift.

It does not mean there was anything wrong with the Democrats' outreach and performance. That doesn't follow in any respect.

And I do find it interesting that you brought up disinformation and conspiracy theories. Having recently watched The Social Dilemma, it really makes me wonder how much the change in american psyche can be traced to social media.

I feel social media is a boogeyman to avoid dealing with the real issue. The real issue is that there are no requirements for news media in general to remain truthful and informative. Which is what allowed Fox News to emerge in the late '90s, pushing a disinformation agenda, and all of those others who subsequently followed that same path, like Breitbart and OANN.

You can trace the shift in attitudes back to the '90s, with the emergence of Fox News, a lot more concretely than you can to the emergence of social media in a big manner. The arguments about social media largely revolve around the ability to create an echo chamber that only repeats what you want to hear, and that was already true with the choice in news media, when such a divide emerged there.

The problem is that tabloids got treated as if they were reputable media. Fox News is just the National Enquirer, with a political focus rather than a celebrity focus.

[Egomaniac]

Arent these just things you say because you have to and then you absolutely put the previous cunts to the sword

Not when Democrats say it. Obama had a similar approach during his presidency...and no matter how many times he was kicked in the balls...he kept going back.

[Adam Jensen]

Not when Democrats say it. Obama had a similar approach during his presidency...and no matter how many times he was kicked in the balls...he kept going back.

If we win the senate, the Democrats should just put the Republicans on ignore.

[ati87]

I was happy with Biden's victory speech the other night.

Today I'm not so sure. He spoke of reconciliation and unity but how the hell are those things even possible? After hearing all these appalling things from Republican politicians, how do we reconcile with people who don't respect American democracy? How do you work with people who refuse to compromise?

It's a speech and it has to include some lipservice.
Sure Biden is not Trump but in the end you just need to wait.

[anyaka21]

I was happy with Biden's victory speech the other night.

Today I'm not so sure. He spoke of reconciliation and unity but how the hell are those things even possible? After hearing all these appalling things from Republican politicians, how do we reconcile with people who don't respect American democracy? How do you work with people who refuse to compromise?

it's especially weird considering during the process, he actively told people to vote Trump because they didn't agree with him, and when one guy said, well I can't vote for Trump, and Biden then told him too.... basically, wanting unity but actively disenfranchising people.

In terms of compromise, I think we need to learn what it actually is that THE AMERICAN PEOPLE want, and not what the politicians think they want. The most basic example is universal healthcare. That has at least a 70% approval rating according to a foxnews exit poll that was phrased as "government run healthcare system" thus, negatively phrased, but 70% still wanted it. THus, it's likely higher, and if any honest study is done and looked into, the numbers are likely closer to 75-80%. But it's politicians left and right that for the most part oppose it because of the money they receive from insurance lobbyists and big pharma.

Thus, I think reconciliation is actually possible but you have to bypass politicians to realize what the real issues are.

[Breccia]

Pompeo lays out Trump's plan to steal the election.

There will be a smooth transition to a second Trump administration.

We're ready. The world is watching what's taking place. We're gonna count all the votes. When the process is complete, there'll be electors selected. There's a process. The Constitution lays it out pretty clearly. The world should have every confidence that the transition necessary to make sure that the State Department is functional today ... and successful with a president who's in office on Jan. 20, a minute after noon, will also be successful.

We've discussed this before. Trump would basically tell Republican-led states to instruct faithless electors to just declare him the winner.

States with Republican legislatures include Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Pennsylvania and Georgia have no faithless elector laws.

Michigan and Arizona do not penalie the elector, but don't count the vote, either.

Wisconsin does not penalize the elector, and allows the vote to remain. That's more of a "pledge" than a law, I guess.

North Carolina seems irrelevant right now, but in case it matters, the elector is penalized and their vote is canceled.

So on paper, it might not matter -- if AZ finally finsily ends and goes for Biden, that's still 270. But the point, like all the other lawsuits, is increasingly to delegitimize the lawful election and throw the country into chaos, use that chaos to get to the Supreme Court, and find a way to hand Trump a victory 6 to 3.

"They can't do that."

Pompeo is already saying the quiet part out loud. They're definitely going to try.

[anyaka21]

Polling is an exercise that is at least as much art as it is mathematics. There are assumptions made and weightings adjusted to produce results the pollsters think are closest to the true feelings of the electorate.

All polling issues this season demonstrate is that there was a change in voter motivations, that weren't reflected in the weightings, which shouldn't really be that big a surprise as everyone expected there to be a major shift.

It does not mean there was anything wrong with the Democrats' outreach and performance. That doesn't follow in any respect.



I feel social media is a boogeyman to avoid dealing with the real issue. The real issue is that there are no requirements for news media in general to remain truthful and informative. Which is what allowed Fox News to emerge in the late '90s, pushing a disinformation agenda, and all of those others who subsequently followed that same path, like Breitbart and OANN.

You can trace the shift in attitudes back to the '90s, with the emergence of Fox News, a lot more concretely than you can to the emergence of social media in a big manner. The arguments about social media largely revolve around the ability to create an echo chamber that only repeats what you want to hear, and that was already true with the choice in news media, when such a divide emerged there.

The problem is that tabloids got treated as if they were reputable media. Fox News is just the National Enquirer, with a political focus rather than a celebrity focus.

While I agree with you point about news media, all fall into their own poltical niches, and none is really fair and balanced.

In terms of social media, I think it goes beyond just the echo chamber. At least according to the documentary, they have the ability to shift a collective conscious of a country by what they recommend during (using facebook as an example) your newsfeed. And algorithmicly suggesting stories based on all of your likes, pauses, reads, how long you watched something, etc... but also has the ability to steer a persons thoughts and as thus millions of peoples thought in certain directions. This the documentary proved out with the destabilization of of foreign country (I don't remember the countrys name offhand). With the US, it would jsut be that on a larger scale. That said, I have a friend that used to work for one of the companies that made the algorithms and he confirmed this part of the story to me too, and was the single driving force on why he left even though it meant making a lot less money, but allowed him to (his words) keep his soul.

[Antiganon]

I'm just tired of being Charlie Brown trying to kick that damn football.

[Milchshake]

Har Har my power is supreme!


Kevin Sorbo
@ksorbs
I’ve decided that since Joe Biden can be president-elect, I too shall identify as president-elect

I'm living rent free in so many heads these days

[Demolitia]

He could but the US need to lessen the polarization so it has its downsides.
US dont really want get into a circle of tossing everthing prior out whenever the president changes.
Better with bipartisan legislation which went through the house and senate than a zillion executive orders.

He could at the very least toss out all the executive orders Donald put through. But I get your point. We don't need another dick right now.

[Edge-]

Har Har my power is supreme!


Kevin Sorbo
@ksorbs
I’ve decided that since Joe Biden can be president-elect, I too shall identify as president-elect

I'm living rent free in so many heads these days

Kul the Conqueror has spoken.

[Endus]

While I agree with you point about news media, all fall into their own poltical niches, and none is really fair and balanced.

We're talking about news reporting. Not opinion pieces. Pulling a "both sides" on that front is just another form of the same disinformation strategy I was talking about.