Mega-Thread: 2020 United States General Election

[Felya]

No that doesn't make any difference.

Than why does polling only factor in Biden vs Trump, while betting includes Pence and 6 democrats, other than Biden?

The chiefs have only 20% chance to win the Super Bowl next year, while also being the hands down favorites. According to betting odds for 2021... can you explain why that is?

[Goatlisp]

Because Biden is the presumptive nominee.

Trump is the presumptive nominee also.

[Felya]

Trump is the presumptive nominee also.

Yeah, but his only opponent in betting is Pence. Betting gives his rivals... nothing. Cuomo isn’t even in the DNC primaries, but betting includes him.

Edit: According to betting, Cuomo, who isn’t even in the primary, has a better chance beating Biden, than Bernie. Hillary was also ahead if him, at least a couple of weeks ago.

[Acidbaron]

Than why does polling only factor in Biden vs Trump, while betting includes Pence and 6 democrats, other than Biden?

Me thinks the burner just got caught red handed being dishonest, what a shocking development.

It is rather simple if Biden was not the best candidate he would not have won the nomination. Now one can argue day and night about the character of Biden or his flaws but to do so one has to compare it not to whoever suits that person narrative the best but against Trump and only against Trump.

If sanders was deemed electable enough by the majority of the democratic base he would have won, people continue to see the whole democratic party and base as something what they want it to be, not as what it really is. They are a centrum party that holds left leaning movements who clearly do not make up the majority of the base.

[Felya]

Me thinks the burner just got caught red handed being dishonest, what a shocking development.

Cuomo has most lucrative prospects. Biden or Trump, the pay out is too small to matter. But... if you hit on Cuomo... or even better... hit on Pence. You are rich!!!

Edit: Imagine you drop 100$ on Pence... Trump *god forbid* gets corona and dies. Pence then beats Biden and you are swimming in money Scrooge stile!

[Goatlisp]

Me thinks the burner just got caught red handed being dishonest, what a shocking development.

It was a very simple point. The betting favours Trump. Polling data as well as any other public or possibly private information is factored into the betting odds by the market. I am an experienced gambler, neither of you clearly are, I would really just drop this, you are making yourselves look silly.

- - - Updated - - -

It is rather simple if Biden was not the best candidate he would not have won the nomination.

And I suppose Donald Trump was the best choice for president even though he let over a million Americans get infected?

You'll be telling me next that the British were right to vote for Brexit even though you've been arguing against that for several years now.

[DarkTZeratul]

t is rather simple if Biden was not the best candidate he would not have won the nomination.

Ehhhh... I think Donald Trump himself puts lie to that claim.

[Draco-Onis]

It was a very simple point. The betting favours Trump. Polling data as well as any other public or possibly private information is factored into the betting odds by the market. I am an experienced gambler, neither of you clearly are, I would really just drop this, you are making yourselves look silly.

Just link the information.

[Goatlisp]

Cuomo has most lucrative prospects. Biden or Trump, the pay out is too small to matter. But... if you hit on Cuomo... or even better... hit on Pence. You are rich!!!

Edit: Imagine you drop 100$ on Pence... Trump *god forbid* gets corona and dies. Pence then beats Biden and you are swimming in money Scrooge stile!

OK before this thread gets really dangerous, don't bet on things you don't understand. Just don't. Forget about politics a minute I don't want a gambling addict on my conscience.

For the record the payout is irrelevant. The only successful criteria is the size of the payout relative to the odds. A bet at evens on Trump or Biden is value if you think the opportunity has a greater than 50% likelihood.

Whatever our political differences gambling is mostly just mathematics and there is a right and wrong answer. Arguing with me on this is like Trump arguing with a doctor on covid.

- - - Updated - - -

Just link the information.

What information? The betting odds? Try this: https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plu...etting-2378961

[Acidbaron]

Ehhhh... I think Donald Trump himself puts lie to that claim.

With best i mean the most chance of being elected and found most favourable by the democratic party. I am not speaking of his political prowess, intellect or character here just for clarification.

In short i am saying that Sanders while perhaps being better on all those points i won't comment on that, is considered too left for the democratic party, who in my opinion has only been slowly becoming more progressive especially now with the democratic youth being more progressive.

- - - Updated - - -

OK before this thread gets really dangerous, don't bet on things you don't understand. Just don't. Forget about politics a minute I don't want a gambling addict on my conscience.

Are you saying that this thread is about the enter the Danger Zone?

[Goatlisp]

With best i mean the most chance of being elected and found most favourable by the democratic party. I am not speaking of his political prowess, intellect or character here just for clarification.

In short i am saying that Sanders while perhaps being better on all those points i won't comment on that, is considered too left for the democratic party, who in my opinion has only been slowly becoming more progressive especially now with the democratic youth being more progressive.

Which ignores the fact that money and the media can significantly distort perceptions of the candidates. How do you think Trump got elected in the first place? I'd have thought given your numerous contributions to the Brexit thread you'd have worked out that never would have happened but for the influence of the media.

[Felya]

OK before this thread gets really dangerous, don't bet on things you don't understand. Just don't. Forget about politics a minute I don't want a gambling addict on my conscience.

:/

For the record the payout is irrelevant. The only successful criteria is the size of the payout relative to the odds. A bet at evens on Trump or Biden is value if you think the opportunity has a greater than 50% likelihood.

Than why is betting more relevant than polling?

Whatever our political differences gambling is mostly just mathematics and there is a right and wrong answer. Arguing with me on this is like Trump arguing with a doctor on covid.

Not true... can you explain the math behind something that is very simple and happens every year. The Chiefs are currently 4-1 favorites to win the super bowl. Can you explain the math behind this? Is the answer “math, dadoi”?

What information? The betting odds? Try this: https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plu...etting-2378961

So... I’m right?

- - - Updated - - -

Which ignores the fact that money and the media can significantly distort perceptions of the candidates. How do you think Trump got elected in the first place? I'd have thought given your numerous contributions to the Brexit thread you'd have worked out that never would have happened but for the influence of the media.

Yeah, because bookies are trustworthy...

[Telogrus]

LOL

Bidens has almost famously been against segregation, both in SA and the USA. You might want to look into the who bussing thing with some nuance.
Trumps 'dont rent to blacks', recent moves in Isreal, along with his views on poverty clearly show he believes in racial, religious and class segregation.

Biden has had a journey to gay rights but gonna need a source for that claim.
Trump has actively attacked LGBT rights in healthcare, employment, housing, education, commerce, the military, prisons and sports.

Biden and Trump both supported the Iraq and Afghan wars, and then both became doves supporting ending them. Trump hasnt ended the Afghan war what the fuck are you talking about, its still raging and the peace talks collapsed over prisioner swaps. You seem to have been pr couped. Thats not suprising.

I mean his eulogies and we can work together seem to be old boys club ideas based on his own class and irish tokenism assumptions. They arent great buts hes not a man frozen in time. You will have to source the fundraising stuff. Establishment republicans hating trump is a nonsense. Hes the pinnacle of the GOP and the tea party insurgency. Hes actively praised white supremacists, racists and bigots. Hes fundraised for them and employed them, which is no suprise given that he is a white supremacist.

Catholic past, again hes said he will codify Roe v. Wade into federal law and restore federal funding to Planned Parenthood as well no longer supporting the Hyde amendment.
Trump has been hosting anti abortion rallies.


This is probably the problem, you only have very basic knowledge of anything like that ending the Afghan war comment. Its what happens when you read wikipedia and twitter instead of books and nuanced analysis.


I mean there is a reason hes refered to as the lesser evil....

This is extremely shallow, and too hard to know where to start deconstructing it.

Big rightwing youtuber vibes.


After you completey ignore the nature and reality of trump it seems a bit bullshit to put a disclaimer in. Cowardly even.

Lol if by “journey” you mean only embracing gay rights when it became the popular position then sure.

Does anybody here honestly believe that Biden is anything more than an empty suit? He will believe in whatever he thinks will get him into office

[Milchshake]

Bernie is also endorsing Christy SMith for tomorrow's special election in CA district 25. To replace KAtie Hill.

Bernie Sanders
Californians: @ChristyforCA25 is on the ballot for tomorrow's special election in the 25th Congressional District. Vote to send Christy to Congress to fight for working families, and send a message that Californians reject President Trump's hateful agenda.

So many people are mad at BErnie in the comments....

[Felya]

Does anybody here honestly believe that Biden is anything more than an empty suit? He will believe in whatever he thinks will get him into office

Doesn’t that give voters a lot of power?

[Goatlisp]

:/



Than why is betting more relevant than polling?

Betting is more relevant than polling because betting includes all information about an event including polling.

Polling is just a statistical snapshot of public opinion at a time. It doesn't include things like likely future sentiment, demographics that don't show up in a sample, the advantages of incumbency relating to gerrymandering and other forms of electoral manipulation. All those things and many others will be factored into the odds by sophisticated gamblers using complex models.

Betting is more reliable than polling because generally speaking your ass is on the line with a bet. People can say anything without cost: but no one knowingly loses money.

[Felya]

So many people are mad at BErnie in the comments....

He has caucused with democrats for over 30 years. What do they expect?

[Edge-]

Bernie is also endorsing Christy SMith for tomorrow's special election in CA district 25. To replace KAtie Hill.




So many people are mad at BErnie in the comments....

Hey, if he wants to unintentionally reveal how insane his base is, go for it. Few of these folks likely are even in the district, and given the performance of his Twitter base in the primaries I'm doubtful that they'll remember that they can't vote on Twitter by posting memes.

I like that, at the end of the day, Sanders can be a very practical progressive. What the fuck are they even mad about?

https://mobile.twitter.com/DietQuiet...57487761235968

Here's a guy on the other side, and some of the responses are pretty mind blowing.

Though I'm enjoying seeing people lose their shit he's endorsing someone ahead of a special election that's imminent, and not their preferred candidate for November because these people don't understand how politics works. I swear, these are people playing checkers while most of us are playing chess in a large game of go.

[Felya]

Betting is more relevant than polling because betting includes all information about an event including polling.

Including candidates that have no shot in winning the primary or not even in the primary?

Polling is just a statistical snapshot of public opinion at a time.

Show this statistical methodology...

It doesn't include things like likely future sentiment, demographics that don't show up in a sample, the advantages of incumbency relating to gerrymandering and other forms of electoral manipulation. All those things and many others will be factored into the odds by sophisticated gamblers using complex models.

Neither does polling... but, let’s not assume... show me the betting methodology.

Betting is more reliable than polling because generally speaking your ass is on the line with a bet. People can say anything without cost: but no one knowingly loses money.

But, you just said the amount doesn’t matter? How is your ass in the line, when the difference is negligible and you are permitting lines on candidates that are not even in primary? Like... zucherburg in your last link. I am anxiously awaiting the methodology, in which Zucherburg, has any chance of being president.

[Telogrus]

Doesn’t that give voters a lot of power?

No because he‘ll abandon those beliefs once he gets elected