Mega-Thread: 2020 United States General Election

[postman1782]

He has linked Tim Pool before:



In no way am I endorsing Vaush... but, I am endorsing him getting hits on his video, instead of Tim Pool.

Yeah, doesn't surprise me to be honest.

[Rasulis]

Don’t mean to be a dick, but they are not measuring the same thing. It’s not a 1 to 1 correlation between party affiliation and voting, as well as unaffiliated covering just about every scenario from 538 or anyone else for that mater... because it’s so wide.

They won't start counting until election morning. So for now party affiliation is all we have.

In CA, Democrats turnout is now almost 3 times that of GOP. It was 2.5 times two days ago. That's despite the GOP setting up their own ballot boxes in LA County. None in San Diego County so far. However, there are no unmanned ballot boxes in San Diego County.

[Edge-]

https://www.newsweek.com/trump-teen-...ne-doe-1465652

According to Ronan Farrow, who I'm led to believe by conservatives is a journalist of unimpeachable character after he aired the Tara Reade allegations, AMI, the company that owns the National Enquirer, helped bury a story that Trump raped a 13 year old girl in 1994. The same National Enquirer that is reported to have buried a number of salacious stories involving Trump.

Is Trump a child rapist?

[Rasulis]

Yeah yesterday was talking how fast and easy it is to vote in Chicago, so many polling places, dozens of early voting places, to my surprise, was told the the early polling place near me, 2-3 block long line.

Yep. Still long lines in Texas also. My daughter volunteered at Dallas American Airlines building polling center. At 6:55 (poll open at 7:00) this morning the line wrapped around the building.

[cubby]

https://www.newsweek.com/trump-teen-...ne-doe-1465652

According to Ronan Farrow, who I'm led to believe by conservatives is a journalist of unimpeachable character after he aired the Tara Reade allegations, AMI, the company that owns the National Enquirer, helped bury a story that Trump raped a 13 year old girl in 1994. The same National Enquirer that is reported to have buried a number of salacious stories involving Trump.

Is Trump a child rapist?

Almost to a certainty. I'm not sure if we'll ever get to the bottom of the depravity that is Resident Trump, but if we do, many of us will still be shocked at the horror he has wrought on this world, and the people in it.

[Felya]

They won't start counting until election morning. So for now party affiliation is all we have.

In CA, Democrats turnout is now almost 3 times that of GOP. It was 2.5 times two days ago. That's despite the GOP setting up their own ballot boxes in LA County. None in San Diego County so far. However, there are no unmanned ballot boxes in San Diego County.

Totally, I get it... that’s why I thought I might come off as a dick for correcting it.

[Rasulis]

Totally, I get it... that’s why I thought I might come off as a dick for correcting it.

I just like numbers. Here is one more.

Kentucky: 11.3% of 2016. 69.4% Dems and 25.3% GOPs. According to 538, Trump is ahead by 17.9% in polling.

So I am under no illusion that Dems can win Kentucky. Still interesting.

[postman1782]

https://www.newsweek.com/trump-teen-...ne-doe-1465652

According to Ronan Farrow, who I'm led to believe by conservatives is a journalist of unimpeachable character after he aired the Tara Reade allegations, AMI, the company that owns the National Enquirer, helped bury a story that Trump raped a 13 year old girl in 1994. The same National Enquirer that is reported to have buried a number of salacious stories involving Trump.

Is Trump a child rapist?

Ah, yes, the case that was thrown out on a technicality with the filing, refiled and dropped again because of death threats. And it would not surprise me if he did rape a 13 year old. I keep going back to this case when people claim that Trump hasn't raped anyone, but we have his first wife's allegations, that she dropped to get a better settlement, E. Jean Carroll, and the 13 year old.

[Adamas102]

Yep. Still long lines in Texas also. My daughter volunteered at Dallas American Airlines building polling center. At 6:55 (poll open at 7:00) this morning the line wrapped around the building.

Voted in Houston today around noon at one of the drive through locations. Even though the line of cars was two blocks long it went fast. Was only waiting for about 35min. I was pretty impressed given the record setting day 1 of early voting.

[fwc577]

Early voting data from several battleground states.

Wisconsin: early votes is equal to 25.4% of total votes in 2016. By party affiliation registration, approx. 40% Dems and 38% GOPs.

Michigan: 24.5% of 2016. 40% Dems and 40% GOPs.

Ohio: 8% of 2016. 43% Dems and 45% GOPs.

Close races so far. With the exception of Ohio, 538 poll numbers are off in Wisconsin and Michigan. Here is where it get wild.

Florida: 20% of 2016. 50% Dems and 29.4% GOPs.

North Carolina: 10.6% of 2016. 50.9% Dems and 17.9% GOPs. No Party Affiliation turnout so far almost double GOP turnout.

Pennsylvania: 8.4% of 2016. 75.9% Dems and 15.9% GOPs.

More turnout!

I really don't know where they get the party affiliation shit because we don't have party affiliation in Wisconsin.

[Rasulis]

Voted in Houston today around noon at one of the drive through locations. Even though the line of cars was two blocks long it went fast. Was only waiting for about 35min. I was pretty impressed given the record setting day 1 of early voting.

Texas GOP is trying to take that away from you. Vote them out.

[Felya]

I really don't know where they get the party affiliation shit because we don't have party affiliation in Wisconsin.

Seems like they have a way:
https://elections.wi.gov/index.php/e...ing/statistics

[Rasulis]

I really don't know where they get the party affiliation shit because we don't have party affiliation in Wisconsin.

No idea. I take the numbers at face value.

[fwc577]

Seems like they have a way:
https://elections.wi.gov/index.php/e...ing/statistics

Why are you linking me the government page for my state that I'm well aware of that literally says:

Wisconsin does not register voters by party preference or affiliation, nor does it collect information about voters' gender or race.

If they have percentages, the only way they're getting them is looking at voter turnout / ballot returns by county and using previous data to determine percentage of voters by party affiliation.

For example, if Milwaukee County voted 80% for Democrats in the 2016 election, then they're assuming that every 80 ballots out of 100 returned in Milwaukee County for early voting are Democrats.

So the statistics of party turnout by party affiliation are pretty much meaningless for Wisconsin.

[Felya]

Why are you linking me the government page for my state that I'm well aware of that literally says:

Because when I don’t know something, I google... /shrug

Here is their xlsx about it:
https://elections.wi.gov/sites/elect...st%202020.xlsx

[fwc577]

No idea. I take the numbers at face value.
snipped image

Can you provide a link rather than image snip. I want to see where they get their data on party registration because Wisconsin doesn't register voters by party.

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Because when I don’t know something, I google... /shrug

Here is their xlsx about it:
https://elections.wi.gov/sites/elect...st%202020.xlsx

But you literally googled and linked me something that confirmed what I said without bothering to read it.

We don't register voters by party in Wisconsin.

[Felya]

But you literally googled and linked me something that confirmed what I said without bothering to read it. We don't register voters by party here.

No, I linked it, because they have the actual breakdown in xlsx... the fact that they know who was partisan is most likely... if I had to guess... a voluntary survey. But... I don’t know how they collect it, just that they do have data.

Edit:

Here is where you can by Wisconsin voter registration data:
https://badgervoters.wi.gov/

Is this a Wisconsin ballot:

[beanman12345]

https://www.newsweek.com/trump-teen-...ne-doe-1465652

According to Ronan Farrow, who I'm led to believe by conservatives is a journalist of unimpeachable character after he aired the Tara Reade allegations, AMI, the company that owns the National Enquirer, helped bury a story that Trump raped a 13 year old girl in 1994. The same National Enquirer that is reported to have buried a number of salacious stories involving Trump.

Is Trump a child rapist?

Epstein, and he was sued by said 13 year old, who obviously is no longer 13, in 2016, and got death threats so she dropped the case. So to your question, absolutely certain he is.

but he didn't kill and drink her soul for immortality, so he's the good guy here. /s

[Rasulis]

Can you provide a link rather than image snip. I want to see where they get their data on party registration because Wisconsin doesn't register voters by party.

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But you literally googled and linked me something that confirmed what I said without bothering to read it.

We ������ don't ������ register ������ voters ������ by ������ party ������ in ������ Wisconsin ������.

Sure.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...consin-results

It looks like they use some commercial service to get the data. How they did that is beyond me.

Last updated Oct. 14. Party registration is modeled by TargetSmart from multiple commercial sources.

[fwc577]

No, I linked it, because they have the actual breakdown in xlsx... the fact that they know who was partisan is most likely... if I had to guess... a voluntary survey. But... I don’t know how they collect it, just that they do have data.

That's past data.

That's like, 2016 election happened. We know x number of people voted for Trump and x number of people voted for Hillary so they have a percentage who voted Dem and a percentage who voted GOP.

We're talking about ballot returns for the 2020 general election.

There is no data on ballots being returned by party affiliation because we don't register voters by party affiliation.

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Sure.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...consin-results

It looks like they use some commercial service to get the data. How they did that is beyond me.

Okay, then it must just be some data modeling as mentioned. They're looking at ballot returns by county as well as probably running phone/text surveys on ballot returns to get a general idea of ballot returns by party affaliation.

But as mentioned, I wouldn't trust anything coming out based on those types of numbers as we don't track registration by party affiliation. I think it's going to be a very wildcard turnout when it comes to Wisconsin because, fun fact, Wisconsin didn't vote for Trump in the 2016 primary.

While we have a decent bit of Trump crazies around here, there are a lot of "moderate" Republicans who will likely turn away from Trump.

Edit: Also, holy shit that site gave me a bit of a heart attack about deadline to register to vote because Wisconsin has same-day voter registration but apparently we have a deadline to register online. I am very worried that somehow I'm gonna get unregistered to vote leading up to this election.