Mega-Thread: 2020 United States General Election

[Thaswilth]

That is a good start for the election.

No this is not a good start for the election.

What you would expect is that a president who is presiding over thousands of deaths daily while bleating nonsensical drivel, is a complete collapse in support.

These states are still competitive. The Republicans have a gibbering village idiot, a man most other countries just stopped talking to several years ago because he couldn't remember what he said the day after. That's the man the democrats are "competitive" with. It should be a wipeout. Do you not understand this?

I sometimes wonder what spectacular contortions your mind has to work to construct a narrative where such an incompetent gang of failures is somehow "winning" or whatever reflexive tribal nonsense you believe.

[Beefhammer]

Says the trump supporter. Please tell me now about how you enjoy executive branch overreach and huge deficits. I'm all ears....or eyeballs anyway.

I know right. You know he was steaming in his moms basement with every EO Obama made, but his man Trump can do no wrong with his. I'm sure he worked is fingers to the bone complaining about Obamas golfing trips on thehill.com, but ignores that Trump has gone on more in 4 years than Obama in 8, plus he lining his own pockets by going to his own clubs on the taxpayers dime.

We all know Texas is a liar, a spreader of misinformation, and a bad faith poster. He's not doing his state any favors by attempting to represent it.

[Felya]

I dunno, that's a lot of hair stroking and shoulder massaging going on. Nothing weird at all...all those pretty girls he must touch...

Maybe you should convince them it’s assault, because they don’t seem to agree. Although, did you just defend Trump, by comparing his accusers to “hair stroking and shoulder massaging”? That’s pretty fucked up...

It's not really my thing to worry it. My concern is the grotesque hypocrisy of it all. That's the part that is shameful.

Yeah... obviously hypocrisy... because “hair stroking and shoulder massaging” is just like Trump’s history of assault... You do know that one of his accusers from last year, claimed that Trump would hide behind curtains at Mari largo, then jump out to grope... not “hair stroking and shoulder massaging”... but, grope women that walk bye, as a funny joke. There is no Biden on Lolita express or busting into teenage girl dressing rooms.

Edit: While Trump was doing this, Biden sponsored violence against women act, with a staff being a majority women. Not only do they still back him, they tell stories of how Biden would ask men to get him coffee, because he didn’t like the sort of stereotype it would reinforce by asking female staff.

But... yeah... hypocrite... totally the same... The funding for violence against women act, passed the House, but GOP senate is refusing to put it up for a vote, since March of last year.

Edit 2: Notice that none of these attacks on Biden, are claiming that Biden is inhibiting any investigation. In fact, her story changed after Biden said to release his congressional record. Despite the false equivalence in trying to downplay Trump’s prolific history of assault, by making them look like Biden’s “hair stroking and shoulder massaging”, there are no NDAs to be lifted... there are no out of court settlements... none of the women and men Biden “hair stroking and shoulder massaging” defined it as assault.

[Daelak]

No this is not a good start for the election.

What you would expect is that a president who is presiding over thousands of deaths daily while bleating nonsensical drivel, is a complete collapse in support.

These states are still competitive. The Republicans have a gibbering village idiot, a man most other countries just stopped talking to several years ago because he couldn't remember what he said the day after. That's the man the democrats are "competitive" with. It should be a wipeout. Do you not understand this?

I sometimes wonder what spectacular contortions your mind has to work to construct a narrative where such an incompetent gang of failures is somehow "winning" or whatever reflexive tribal nonsense you believe.

Which shows how deluded the republican electorate is. Conservatives have been deluding and subverting the United States since before it's founding. They don't want an informed electorate, they don't want equal protection of all people under the law. They contort and abuse our government to consolidate power.

[Milchshake]

Some more bold economic populism from Donald Trump:

President Trump on Tuesday privately expressed opposition to extending a weekly $600 boost in unemployment insurance for laid-off workers affected by the coronavirus pandemic, according to three officials familiar with his remarks during a closed-door lunch with Republican senators on Capitol Hill.

The increased unemployment benefits — paid by the federal government but administered through individual states — were enacted this year as part of a broader $2 trillion relief package passed by Congress. The boost expires this summer, and House Democrats have proposed extending the aid through January 2021.



Trump is trying to tank the recovery on purpose.

[cubby]

No this is not a good start for the election.

What you would expect is that a president who is presiding over thousands of deaths daily while bleating nonsensical drivel, is a complete collapse in support.

These states are still competitive. The Republicans have a gibbering village idiot, a man most other countries just stopped talking to several years ago because he couldn't remember what he said the day after. That's the man the democrats are "competitive" with. It should be a wipeout. Do you not understand this?

I sometimes wonder what spectacular contortions your mind has to work to construct a narrative where such an incompetent gang of failures is somehow "winning" or whatever reflexive tribal nonsense you believe.

You can't do anything about crazy. And those people currently supporting Trump, without a personal financial gain, are pushing the border of neurosis. Supporting Trump as a citizen is almost literally insane - in almost every single category.

But you probably won't be around long enough to have that conversation...so...thanks?

[Milchshake]

Biden's invisible campaign keeps making gains Who knew this would happen? Thanks South Carolina voters.

Nine percent of Trump’s 2016 voters say they’re planning to vote for Biden


After the 2016 election, analysts spilled tubs of ink arguing that “Obama-Trump” voters helped swing the election. Analysis by John Sides for the Voter Study Group (which both of us have worked with) found that 9 percent of Barack Obama voters from 2012 switched to Donald Trump in 2016, for about 6 million voters overall. Disproportionately white, non-college-educated and concentrated in electorally vital states from Florida to the Great Lakes, these Democratic defectors shifted enough votes to help Trump win Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, which gave him an electoral college win despite losing the national popular vote.

Will party switching influence the 2020 presidential election? Our analysis suggests that, yes, a significant number of Trump’s 2016 voters are ready to vote for the presumptive Democratic Party nominee, Joe Biden.

[Rasulis]

That is a good start for the election. And this won't be 2016. I think we all know there were a number of mistakes made during that run, and the DNC is aware of them, and won't be repeating them in 2020.

I do love what you pointed out the author spinning the TX numbers - as if a 4 point lead in fucking Texas is a good thing. Maybe @TexasLies can shed some light on this....

Depending how the oil industry recover, TX could be in play also. There is a lot of unhappiness in the way Trump handled the oil crisis. No. The current oil price is not sustainable for shale drillers. Even at mid 40s it is not sustainable. The medium and big companies were able to take advantage of the US Treasury's massive bond buyback and CAREs act tax break. However, small companies producing less than 1,000 bpd, which employs the majority of the oil workers, are in a different situation. This will also hit Houston and Dallas commercial real estate hard.

[cubby]

Depending how the oil industry recover, TX could be in play also. There is a lot of unhappiness in the way Trump handled the oil crisis. No. The current oil price is not sustainable for shale drillers. Even at mid 40s it is not sustainable. The medium and big companies were able to take advantage of the US Treasury's massive bond buyback and CAREs act tax break. However, small companies producing less than 1,000 bpd, which employs the majority of the oil workers, are in a different situation. This will also hit Houston and Dallas commercial real estate hard.

Damn - if TX swings blue that is the ballgame. Interesting info - I didn't realize there were a lot of small players, but of course that makes sense. Team Deplorable is still polling ahead of Biden in hypotheticals in that state. We shall see.

[Rasulis]

Damn - if TX swings blue that is the ballgame. Interesting info - I didn't realize there were a lot of small players, but of course that makes sense. Team Deplorable is still polling ahead of Biden in hypotheticals in that state. We shall see.

Texas has several hundreds shale oil producers. Although 10% accounts for 50% of the production. If you include non-shale oil producers, then number jumped to around 6,000 independent operators. Lots of mom & pop operation doing 10 bpd or less working on wells that would not be profitable for the larger firms.

[Milchshake]

Wonder why Trump has spent the day attacking voters on twitter?


New Quinnipiac national poll:

Biden 50%
Trump 39%


Biden has a huge lead in the suburbs (59-35) while Trump's margins in rural areas are not nearly as big as you'd expect (53-40).

[Elegiac]

Wonder why Trump has spent the day attacking voters on twitter?


New Quinnipiac national poll:

Biden 50%
Trump 39%


Biden has a huge lead in the suburbs (59-35) while Trump's margins in rural areas are not nearly as big as you'd expect (53-40).

Who would have thought that mishandling a public health crisis to the tune of 9/11 Times One Hundred wouldn't be a surefire electoral strategy?

[cubby]

Wonder why Trump has spent the day attacking voters on twitter?


New Quinnipiac national poll:

Biden 50%
Trump 39%


Biden has a huge lead in the suburbs (59-35) while Trump's margins in rural areas are not nearly as big as you'd expect (53-40).

Another election predictor out is saying seven battleground states, including fucking Missouri, will swing for Biden, because of the economy. Interesting....

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Who would have thought that mishandling a public health crisis to the tune of 9/11 Times One Hundred wouldn't be a surefire electoral strategy?

Right? Who would have thought putting corporations ahead of american lives would cost you in the polls. I'm sure the GOP will still steal the election somehow, but at least there is some hope.

Curious - if we were on the Red Team for the DNC, how would we steal the election? What moves would we make, and where, to do it? Keeping in mind that even getting caught probably won't matter, as overturning a Presidential election will almost certainly never happen - so it's truly winner takes all, anything to win, etc.

[starlord]

Another election predictor out is saying seven battleground states, including fucking Missouri, will swing for Biden, because of the economy. Interesting....

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Right? Who would have thought putting corporations ahead of american lives would cost you in the polls. I'm sure the GOP will still steal the election somehow, but at least there is some hope.

Curious - if we were on the Red Team for the DNC, how would we steal the election? What moves would we make, and where, to do it? Keeping in mind that even getting caught probably won't matter, as overturning a Presidential election will almost certainly never happen - so it's truly winner takes all, anything to win, etc.

their current focus seems to be attacking mail in voting and encouraging the pandemic spread in order to drive down voter turnout.
i expect some florida shenanigans once again.
the hunter biden saga is being resurrected.
they may or may not focus on the allegations against biden himself (they are no strangers to hypocrisy).
barr may sooner or later open some bogus investigation a la hillary.
putin's phone is ringing off the hook.

at this point, anything is to be expected really.

[Bdatik]

Another election predictor out is saying seven battleground states, including fucking Missouri, will swing for Biden, because of the economy. Interesting....

Have the Byrde's been making their move politically already?

[beanman12345]

Just got to make sure voter turnout is above 2016's abysmal 55%. If it can go up by even 1 or 2% it should be enough to knock Trump out, even more the better. Of course republicans will depress wherever possible. Mail in could be even more key then ever, so keeping the USPS funded needs to happen!

[cubby]

Just got to make sure voter turnout is above 2016's abysmal 55%. If it can go up by even 1 or 2% it should be enough to knock Trump out, even more the better. Of course republicans will depress wherever possible. Mail in could be even more key then ever, so keeping the USPS funded needs to happen!

Would that kind small percentage up-tic really do it? And if so, does the GOP know this, and therefore they will be trying to push it down to keep Trump in place. Is that how it sort of plays out?

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Have the Byrde's been making their move politically already?

Could you explain that more....

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their current focus seems to be attacking mail in voting and encouraging the pandemic spread in order to drive down voter turnout.
i expect some florida shenanigans once again.
the hunter biden saga is being resurrected.
they may or may not focus on the allegations against biden himself (they are no strangers to hypocrisy).
barr may sooner or later open some bogus investigation a la hillary.
putin's phone is ringing off the hook.

at this point, anything is to be expected really.

I could see all of those playing out in some form - whatever it takes to keep their house of cards upright. Because if they lose, many are looking at jail time - most are looking at getting unhooked from the teat. Trump will certainly spend the rest of his life fighting for his freedom in court.

[Milchshake]

8+ points, the worst margin for an incumbent president at this point in the election cycle going back maybe Hoover.

[Bdatik]

Could you explain that more....

Sorry, just a reference to the show The Ozarks. The family is money laundering for a drug cartel and moved to Missouri. A minor part of the show is that they're politically left-leaning and have been wanting to get back into politics and shift the state blue.

[starlord]

Would that kind small percentage up-tic really do it? And if so, does the GOP know this, and therefore they will be trying to push it down to keep Trump in place. Is that how it sort of plays out?

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Could you explain that more....

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I could see all of those playing out in some form - whatever it takes to keep their house of cards upright. Because if they lose, many are looking at jail time - most are looking at getting unhooked from the teat. Trump will certainly spend the rest of his life fighting for his freedom in court.

it may well come down to the wire in some places.
i should have posted it in this thread, but data from the wisconsin election suggests that rural white voters are also impacted by stringent voting requirements. something like 4% of rural mail-in votes were rejected vs 1% of urban.
it will be interesting to see if the repubs continue to pursue that.