Mega-Thread: 2020 United States General Election

[Zan15]

POLITICAL IDENTIFICATION: 40% Democrats/46% Republicans/14% Independent. Can't claim oversampling Democrats anymore.

its a shame those people who always claim that just can't understand that they level the results if something is oversampled.

its only been explained to them a thousand times, but i guess they like to remain ignorant

[Rasulis]

its a shame those people who always claim that just can't understand that they level the results if something is oversampled.

its only been explained to them a thousand times, but i guess they like to remain ignorant

I guess the concept of statistical weighting is pretty foreign to them. Either that or they choose to be obtuse.

[TexasRules]

It looks like the VP shortlist is even shorter now: Kamala, Warren, Val Demings, Lance Bottoms. The VP will be announced at the start of August (perhaps even earlier), so not a lot of time left.

Kamala: Imo she is the best overall choice. She is extremely charismatic with good jokes that land, comes across as very genuine and is overall a great communicator that is easy to listen to. She also makes the strongest case for supporting Biden "no matter what". She looks great too, has great style, and could be from anywhere and belong to any racial minority. Her still being a front runner after weeks (months?) of vetting, probably also means that she doesn't have too much baggage from her DA and AG careers.

Personally I don't find her to be very trustworthy, and I would much prefer Warren to take over from Biden if necessary, but whatever this is not the time to split hairs.

Warren: I love this woman I am very biased. Her brains and heart put everyone else to shame. She inspires great trust in me which is ultimately all I can ask from a politician. I can think of no one else I'd rather have take over if Biden has to step down. If anyone can heal and transform the country it's her.

My adoration aside, she is the only one on the short list that has not been overtly campaigning for the job. I'm a bit surprised she is evidently still participating in the process, and kinda shocked that she apparently was the front runner before BLM blew up. I was under the impression that she didn't even want the job. While I think she is by far the best choice here, I don't see many political arguments in her favor and I would be surprised if they announce her. But hey, she's in the top 4!

Val Demings: Outclassed by Kamala in the charisma department. She's a very run-of-the-mill politician with nothing really standing out to me, good or bad. Maybe she is very popular in FL? She is "more black" than Kamala in policy, rhetoric and appearance, so if that ends up being the deciding factor I could see that giving her the edge over all others. She's quite serious and at least on the surface looks like she would be up for the job of replacing Biden if necessary.

Lance Bottoms: I didn't know her at all before this, and the little I saw from her was not very exciting. Not nearly as charismatic as Kamala in most regards; she appears to recite memorized talking points and little else. Overall she impresses me as a young and inexperienced politician. If BLM is the deciding factor I'd give the edge to Demings over her, but I could be wrong.

Susan Rice: Honorable mention goes to her. I think she is extremely intelligent and qualified. I feel like I know her a bit better than most of the others too since she's been around for so long. Kinda sad to see her not make the top 4, but I can see why. Even for me she can be hard to listen to/follow. She'd be my second choice behind Warren.

So without any insider knowledge my money is on Kamala and my hopes are with Warren. We will know soon enough.

Now list the negatives for each one. You know, like Kamala already got torn up by Tulsi and will have to answer same type questions. Or that Warren couldn't even win her own state because she is so poular. Val Demmings was a police chief, that's going to go over real well. And the mayor of Atlanta where police are calling out because an embattled DA wants blood and will cost the city millions of dollars when the cops sue. Why not throw in Cubby''s favorite that he has been ranting for months and months about...oh wait she really wants the job and nobody wants her. But feel free, there are more negatives, those are just cursory glance. The first 2 offer nothing state wise. According to cubby you have to take abrams over the mayor in GA. Have to, it's his favorite.

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POLITICAL IDENTIFICATION: 40% Democrats/46% Republicans/14% Independent. Can't claim oversampling Democrats anymore.

Looks like 34-37, but hey if you need to LEAN to get Biden a pretend victory 4 months away from an election, feel free. I find it odd that 37% of Independents are voting for neither, but you need a win in a poll, you get it. Feel free to mark this down and revisit it in November when Trump wins Texas and Cornyn wins by over 50%. That latter bet is a sure thing, even though they somehow think democrats only poll -9 points against him. You lean and take this victory. Keep thinking Texas will go to Biden.

[Felya]

Now list the negatives for each one. You know, like Kamala already got torn up by Tulsi and will have to answer same type questions.

You think Harris being a harsh DA will play out the same way Nationally, as it did for DNC? You think Bunker Boy cabinet will take shots at Harris for being too much about law and order?

Or that Warren couldn't even win her own state because she is so poular. Val Demmings was a police chief, that's going to go over real well. And the mayor of Atlanta where police are calling out because an embattled DA wants blood and will cost the city millions of dollars when the cops sue. Why not throw in Cubby''s favorite that he has been ranting for months and months about...oh wait she really wants the job and nobody wants her. But feel free, there are more negatives, those are just cursory glance. The first 2 offer nothing state wise. According to cubby you have to take abrams over the mayor in GA. Have to, it's his favorite.

I’m sure you can find a lot of negatives. Unlike Trump, none of the DNC VP or Biden, claim to be infallible voice sent by god. Them not being perfect, especially for a Trump supporter, is not a bug... it’s a feature. You can bet neither one will be on twitter complaining how they are the most mistreated candidates ever...

Looks like 34-37, but hey if you need to LEAN to get Biden a pretend victory 4 months away from an election, feel free. I find it odd that 37% of Independents are voting for neither, but you need a win in a poll, you get it. Feel free to mark this down and revisit it in November when Trump wins Texas and Cornyn wins by over 50%. That latter bet is a sure thing, even though they somehow think democrats only poll -9 points against him. You lean and take this victory. Keep thinking Texas will go to Biden.

When Trump wins Texas, how close do you think it will be?

[Thelxi]

Now list the negatives for each one. You know, like Kamala already got torn up by Tulsi and will have to answer same type questions. Or that Warren couldn't even win her own state because she is so poular. Val Demmings was a police chief, that's going to go over real well. And the mayor of Atlanta where police are calling out because an embattled DA wants blood and will cost the city millions of dollars when the cops sue. Why not throw in Cubby''s favorite that he has been ranting for months and months about...oh wait she really wants the job and nobody wants her. But feel free, there are more negatives, those are just cursory glance. The first 2 offer nothing state wise. According to cubby you have to take abrams over the mayor in GA. Have to, it's his favorite.

I'm assuming that the negatives for each are not that egregious since they have all passed the vetting process so far, which is no joke. To give you an idea of the process, these people have been combing through Kamala's cases for a while now and have even been digging into decades of research papers that have Warren's name on them. Whatever you fear you can be sure they are already well aware of. Like with Hilary's emails, they have probably compiled a shitlist for each of them of potentially damaging information. While I'd love to read them and discuss them let's hope those don't leak lol.

Regardless one of them will very likely be on the ticket and there is a good chance they will end up being president (!), so I don't really see the the merit in ranking them from worst to least bad at this point lol.

I'll say about Abrams that she was apparently not even being vetted, and I can see why. She was one of the first people I scrutinized when I started doing research on those I didn't know much about, and everyone left on the short list is a better choice than her imo. I haven't really paid attention to the arguments in her favor, but I don't see them myself.

[Felya]

I'm assuming that the negatives for each are not that egregious since they have all passed the vetting process so far, which is no joke. To give you an idea of the process, these people have been combing through Kamala's cases for a while now and have even been digging into decades of research papers that have Warren's name on them. Whatever you fear you can be sure they are already well aware of. Like with Hilary's emails, they have probably compiled a shitlist for each of them of potentially damaging information. While I'd love to read them and discuss them let's hope those don't leak lol.

Regardless one of them will very likely be on the ticket and there is a good chance they will end up being president (!), so I don't really see the the merit in ranking them from worst to least bad at this point lol.

I'll say about Abrams that she was apparently not even being vetted, and I can see why. She was one of the first people I scrutinized when I started doing research on those I didn't know much about, and everyone left on the short list is a better choice than her imo. I haven't really paid attention to the arguments in her favor, but I don't see them myself.

Warren is pretty much out as VP, in my opinion. But, if she had baggage... Trump wouldn’t have to call her Pocahontas. As pointed out with Harris, it will be hard to claim both, that Harris has a history of siding with cops as a DA and that democrats hate the police. Harris, and why Trump is having troubles attacking Biden directly on this, do not do well on their judicial history amongst democrats. It’s why Gabbart was able to attack them for it. On a national stage, standing next to ‘send in the military’ Trump, they won’t seem so extreme as when standing next to Gabbard and Bernie. It kills Trump’s bullshit about protestors...

[Thelxi]

Warren is pretty much out as VP, in my opinion. But, if she had baggage... Trump wouldn’t have to call her Pocahontas. As pointed out with Harris, it will be hard to claim both, that Harris has a history of siding with cops as a DA and that democrats hate the police. Harris, and why Trump is having troubles attacking Biden directly on this, do not do well on their judicial history amongst democrats. It’s why Gabbart was able to attack them for it. On a national stage, standing next to ‘send in the military’ Trump, they won’t seem so extreme as when standing next to Gabbard and Bernie. It kills Trump’s bullshit about protestors...

I've been paying close attention to Kamala and she is pretty bold with her political positions. Whatever social movement is going on she is one of the first politicians to jump on the bandwagon and to take what others would consider a risk without hesitation. This makes me think she won't have a lot of trouble winning over say the defund the police crowd despite her questionable past. If anything her past could work in her favor and give her voice some relevance on the subject. I really wouldn't underestimate her charisma, which complements and contrasts Biden's passivity.

As far as Warren goes, I am surprised she was being vetted to begin with, is not only still in the running but a front runner, and I'll be shocked if they announce her. But hey hope dies last and I wouldn't count her out until Biden's camp (or she herself) says so.

[Omega10]

Trump supporters double down on their vision for America:

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/whit...125731007.html

Title: White Men Light Black Teenage Girl's Face on Fire in Wisconsin

Excerpts:

“I was listening to some music at a stoplight and then all of a sudden I heard someone yell the N-word really loud,” she said in an interview, according to Madison365. “I turned my head to look and somebody’s throwing lighter fluid on me. And then they threw a lighter at me, and my neck caught on fire and I tried to put it out, but I brushed it up onto my face.”

She said her attackers were four white men.

“Two of them were wearing all black, and then the other two were wearing jeans and a floral shirt,” she told the site. That’s significant, as right-wing counter-protesters have been wearing Hawaiian shirts, a symbol of the white nationalist “boogaloo” movement. Police are looking into whether there is surveillance footage of the attack.

Bernstein said she experienced “textbook” shock as she was able to put out the fire, drive through a red light, and continue straight on to her brother’s house, not yet feeling the pain in her face. She then drove herself to the hospital.

“They had to pretty much scrub the skin off, which was extremely painful,” she told Madison365. “Burn pain is something I can’t even really describe. I don’t know how to describe it. It was horrible.”

She may need to have plastic surgery to repair the damage those men did to her face.

[Zaydin]

Trump supporters double down on their vision for America:

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/whit...125731007.html

Title: White Men Light Black Teenage Girl's Face on Fire in Wisconsin

Excerpts:

I look forward to seeing Trump supporters insisting that she is lying and set herself on fire.

[draynay]

I look forward to seeing Trump supporters insisting that she is lying and set herself on fire.

If its anything like the noose thread, they'll be arguing about types of accelerants and how if they really wanted to burn her they would've done it differently.

[Sunseeker]

Trump supporters double down on their vision for America:

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/whit...125731007.html

Title: White Men Light Black Teenage Girl's Face on Fire in Wisconsin

Excerpts:

Would it be cruel of me to suggest they be burned to death?

[Thepersona]

I guess the concept of statistical weighting is pretty foreign to them. Either that or they choose to be obtuse.

that and the very concept of sampling and statistical significance, or margin of error

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Would it be cruel of me to suggest they be burned to death?

I'd like the Soviet solution: Firing squad, or Go to the gulag.

[cubby]

More analysis out on the three top choices for Biden's VP. I get Demmings and Harris. I do NOT get Rice. As divisive a figure in conservative circles as Barr is in democratic ones (although not fairly imo, but optics are rarely fair). Should be Abrams in that third slot.

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Trump tweets project his own actions.

[Rasulis]

Looks like 34-37, but hey if you need to LEAN to get Biden a pretend victory 4 months away from an election, feel free. I find it odd that 37% of Independents are voting for neither, but you need a win in a poll, you get it. Feel free to mark this down and revisit it in November when Trump wins Texas and Cornyn wins by over 50%. That latter bet is a sure thing, even though they somehow think democrats only poll -9 points against him. You lean and take this victory. Keep thinking Texas will go to Biden.

As late as March I would have agreed with you. However, time has changed. In the past, Texas oil & gas counties with their larger population acted as counterpoint to the much larger population of the big cities like Austin. Due to the oil & gas debacle, towns in counties like Midland and Odessa are becoming ghost tows at a rapid rate. By November, there won't be enough people in those counties to counter the much larger population of TX big cities. I think Democrats' chances in TX is pretty good now.

[cubby]

Now list the negatives for each one. You know, like Kamala already got torn up by Tulsi and will have to answer same type questions. Or that Warren couldn't even win her own state because she is so poular. Val Demmings was a police chief, that's going to go over real well. And the mayor of Atlanta where police are calling out because an embattled DA wants blood and will cost the city millions of dollars when the cops sue. Why not throw in Cubby''s favorite that he has been ranting for months and months about...oh wait she really wants the job and nobody wants her. But feel free, there are more negatives, those are just cursory glance. The first 2 offer nothing state wise. According to cubby you have to take abrams over the mayor in GA. Have to, it's his favorite.

I certainly appreciate the torch you seem to carry for me, I might actually blush.

You have yet to provide, as usual, any documentation or evidence for your claims against Abrams. And why do you care so much about the Democratic VP pic again? Oh, right - you don't. You just know that your Dear Leader, aka #TRE45ON, is doing so horrifically in literally every category of leadership, that he'll be lucky to win a Best Donald Trump award at this point.

Hey - speaking of the most treasonous person to ever sit at the Resolute Desk, did you hear about Trump knowing Putin put out Bounties on U.S. and U.K. soldiers, and then still invited him to join the G7? Guess you missed that little nugget while you were pining away for acknowledgement of your little VP gotchas.

[eschatological]

Warren is pretty much out as VP, in my opinion. But, if she had baggage... Trump wouldn’t have to call her Pocahontas. As pointed out with Harris, it will be hard to claim both, that Harris has a history of siding with cops as a DA and that democrats hate the police. Harris, and why Trump is having troubles attacking Biden directly on this, do not do well on their judicial history amongst democrats. It’s why Gabbart was able to attack them for it. On a national stage, standing next to ‘send in the military’ Trump, they won’t seem so extreme as when standing next to Gabbard and Bernie. It kills Trump’s bullshit about protestors...

Democrats don't want to be seen as "hating the police" in the general. Much as it might cut against the progressive vote, the political calculus is that they'll grit their teeth because our elections have become about voting against people you hate.

If only Harris wasn't from California, a lock, I'd say she was the clear choice if we're playing the game of national electoral politics.

[SirBeef]

*wall of bull shit*

Got to wonder where this introspection from you ever was on Trump and his cronies.

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As late as March I would have agreed with you. However, time has changed. In the past, Texas oil & gas counties with their larger population acted as counterpoint to the much larger population of the big cities like Austin. Due to the oil & gas debacle, towns in counties like Midland and Odessa are becoming ghost tows at a rapid rate. By November, there won't be enough people in those counties to counter the much larger population of TX big cities. I think Democrats' chances in TX is pretty good now.

Little Texaslies is gonna never show his face here again if Dems win Texas. Bloomberg should drop millions in ads there, if he was serious about defeating Trump.

[PACOX]

Democrats don't want to be seen as "hating the police" in the general. Much as it might cut against the progressive vote, the political calculus is that they'll grit their teeth because our elections have become about voting against people you hate.

If only Harris wasn't from California, a lock, I'd say she was the clear choice if we're playing the game of national electoral politics.

I don't expect to really find answers here but I wonder how well the party can hell up in the future. The split between moderates/liberals vs progressives has been growing since the latter half of Obama's 2nd term. The two sides scuffs at the other when one comes out on top in the primaries. The party was not healthy in 2016 and only collective scourn for Trump has brought it together since. I'm not old enough to know if this is just normal pattern behavior but I do what party will look like once the threat of McConnell Republicans are gone in the next 4-8 years. When there's a soft reset and no big red bad guy to defeat. I do think the Democratic Party will at least become two distinct factions under one blue banner.

[Muzjhath]

I don't expect to really find answers here but I wonder how well the party can hell up in the future. The split between moderates/liberals vs progressives has been growing since the latter half of Obama's 2nd term. The two sides scuffs at the other when one comes out on top in the primaries. The party was not healthy in 2016 and only collective scourn for Trump has brought it together since. I'm not old enough to know if this is just normal pattern behavior but I do what party will look like once the threat of McConnell Republicans are gone in the next 4-8 years. When there's a soft reset and no big red bad guy to defeat. I do think the Democratic Party will at least become two distinct factions under one blue banner.

Well, whenever I come as a complete outsider and Tell progressives to infiltrate the GOP and overthrow it from the Racist shitbags who stole it I get shouted down.

[Felya]

If only Harris wasn't from California, a lock, I'd say she was the clear choice if we're playing the game of national electoral politics.

Oh, I keep forgetting she is from California. Yeah, that’s actually a huge negative. I think democrats will aim for a swing or even red state representatives.

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The split between moderates/liberals vs progressives has been growing since the latter half of Obama's 2nd term. The two sides scuffs at the other when one comes out on top in the primaries.

First, it’s primaries, that’s what happens. Second, the ‘progressives’ that started up against liberals, which by the way doesn’t make any sense, are not really doing too well. Rubin Report, no longer claims to be a ‘real liberal’, but is now all about how it’s harder to be conservative, than being gay. Jordan Peterson has completely negated his whole theory, because he hit medical issues, which made his own rhetoric impossible to follow. Majority of those ‘progressives’ on YouTube are now firmly in the alt right camp. Even Joe Rogan is going the way of Howard Stern, since he is going behind a pay wall.

The party was not healthy in 2016 and only collective scourn for Trump has brought it together since.

That sort of glosses over what issues there are with Trump. Is Trump removing healthcare, lowering taxes on the rich and generally profiteering the rich, over the people. Would these be issues with any other president? I think you may be confusing the issues Trump is explicitly working against, as being issues with Trump, not that Trump is the one acting on it right now.

This just makes me think people are either not paying attention or are anti Trump, because of reasons that are not the shit he is doing. It feels like the ‘wait until Trump leaves office, then we can discuss the issues he caused’. It feel like the same bullshit as Clinton and Bush, let’s wait to critique them until they are out of office. Progressives never had a president that exemplified why progressive issues are necessary, than Trump. There has never been someone so obvious...

I'm not old enough to know if this is just normal pattern behavior but I do what party will look like once the threat of McConnell Republicans are gone in the next 4-8 years. When there's a soft reset and no big red bad guy to defeat. I do think the Democratic Party will at least become two distinct factions under one blue banner.

As far as primaries having people in same party fight? Yes, it’s pretty much the same... the best example isn’t even Bernie, it’s Howard Dean... what did he do to get shit balled? Be excited? Isn’t that the fix, to the problem of being boring, that supposedly stopped Gore? See... people forget that he was the extreme liberal, being pushed by ‘kids’, facing the DNC establishment pushing their guy. Compare the state voting pattern for Dean and Bernie’s run in 2019...

As I like to point out, the current GOP is nothing like they were even in the 90s. I like to point to the GOP platform, before neoCons took over:

https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/docu...party-platform

Now, does that sound like Trump’s or neoCons, after a Democrat president? A Democrat president named Clinton?

Claiming the issue with Trump is superficial, where it’s just a big bad guy, simply ignores reality. It ignores why and the fact that he acts to reverse every progressive issue of the last 20 years.