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2020-10-31, 07:25 AM #21921Titan
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"You know you that bitch when you cause all this conversation."
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2020-10-31, 07:35 AM #21922Merely a Setback
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9% chance of victory is not 0%
Originally Posted by TheramoreIsTheBomb
“Do not lose time on daily trivialities. Do not dwell on petty detail. For all of these things melt away and drift apart within the obscure traffic of time. Live well and live broadly. You are alive and living now. Now is the envy of all of the dead.” ~ Emily3, World of Tomorrow
Words to live by. Originally Posted by Wells
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2020-10-31, 07:50 AM #21923Titan
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no i mean the news reporting a bunch of lies. the real percentage of biden and trump is not 91-9/8 it's somewhat between 60/59-40/41 Originally Posted by Kaleredar
"You know you that bitch when you cause all this conversation."
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2020-10-31, 08:02 AM #21924High Overlord
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- Sep 2013
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Shy Biden voter here... Originally Posted by Zaydin
Blue voter in a deeeeeeeeeeeeeeeep red state. I DO NOT talk about politics with anyone around me. Trump signs up and down the roads, trump flags waving behind their pick-up trucks...I don't feel safe telling any of them who I planned to vote for.
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2020-10-31, 08:05 AM #21925Titan
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- Jan 2012
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I like how one of your links says Trump has a 91% chance to win simply cause some random dude says so, just like you are saying now it's 60/40. doesn't matter, Truth is none of us know who's gonna win. Originally Posted by TheramoreIsTheBomb
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2020-10-31, 08:17 AM #21926I am Murloc!
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- Sep 2020
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Again, this was BEFORE the Comey bullshit. She lost 4 points because of the Comey bullshit. Someone else posted this shit, and I already showed why Trump barely won because of it. Originally Posted by TheramoreIsTheBomb
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2020-10-31, 09:43 AM #21927Scarab Lord
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- Feb 2011
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First off (as someone else pointed out), 9% doesn't mean it's in the bag. It seems you don't really understand how these forecasts work. Secondly, is it so hard to wrap your mind around the fact that 2016 did indeed lead to a lot of reassessment of how polling is conducted and examined? A lot has changed in the past 4 years, and Biden is not Hillary. In addition to that, 2020 Trump is not the same as 2016 Trump. Sure, there are still all those dumdums that go with the "he tells it like it is" shtick and guzzle down his bullshit like it's coming from god himself, but now that he has had 4 years in office the whole "he'll shake up the system" appeal has worn off for a lot of folks. Originally Posted by TheramoreIsTheBomb
A lot of hate was leveled against Clinton 4 years ago, souring her among many typically democrat voters, and yet she still managed to win the popular vote. Biden doesn't have the skeletons that hounded Hillary up until election day, and turnouts are already setting records this year. Could Trump still win? Of course. However, seeing that Biden is strongly favored to win and saying "do y'all ever learn" just comes off as incredibly stupid.
Try to break down the groups like this:
People who fully endorse Trump - they were fervent about him in 2016 and still are now. I highly doubt this group has grown much since Trump hasn't really done anything to help the average Joe over the over the past 4 years.
People who voted for Trump only because they hated Hillary - irrelevant this time around. These would have been people who wouldn't have voted for Trump otherwise but did so because Hillary scared them more (for whatever reason). I doubt most of them feel the same way about Biden.
People who didn't vote at all because they disliked both Trump and Clinton - these people may still not vote at all, but this time around Trump has shown his ineptitude as president and I doubt that has won him many supporters in this group. Without the Clinton baggage, I could see more of these people voting for Biden.
In short, voter turnout is looking to be quite high this time around. That's a fact. Without the massive amount of fear that was aimed at Hillary and her supposed misdeeds or the rallying cries like "build the wall" and "drain the swamp", who is Trump going to bring to his side this time around that didn't come out to vote for him last time? So where are all those additional votes going to end up?Last edited by Adamas102; 2020-10-31 at 10:01 AM.
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2020-10-31, 10:02 AM #21928Elemental Lord
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- Oct 2015
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One thing I don't understand: why do so many want to predict that their candidate have won, or is likely to win, before the election?
Are so many american perceived as being fair-weather voters and only willing to vote for a winning candidate?
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2020-10-31, 10:03 AM #21929Scarab Lord
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- Sep 2014
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It's actually the opposite. If people think their candidate is sure to win they tend to not vote. Originally Posted by Forogil
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2020-10-31, 10:17 AM #21930Elemental Lord
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Which makes it even stranger. Originally Posted by Nelinrah
However, it could be that people neither vote when their candidate is sure to win, nor when their candidate is sure to lose. (Obviously some do regardless.)
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2020-10-31, 10:25 AM #21931The Unstoppable Force
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But that is misleading that poll came out after the access Hollywood tape before then Trump had a 60-75% chance of winning. If the election were held right after that tape came out yes Clinton would have won, people keep citing that out of context like it means anything. By all indications the polls were correct within the margin of error leading up to the election, polls are a snap shot in time nothing more. Originally Posted by TheramoreIsTheBomb
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2020-10-31, 10:50 AM #21932Herald of the Titans
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- Jan 2009
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Yeah, I'm not sure why these people keep showing a forecast from mid-October as some sort of proof. Originally Posted by Draco-Onis
I just pulled up FiveThirtyEight and on election day, they gave Hillary a 71% chance of winning and Trump a 29% chance of winning.
They also showed Hillary having a slight advantage in a lot of states she lost because Trump ran the table on those states.
The final vote was 306 Trump to 232 Clinton.
In the post-election analysis, (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...=2016-forecast) they looked at how it would've looked if 1 in 100 voters had shifted toward Clinton and the final EV vote total would've been Clinton 307 to Trump 231.
The margins were VERY slim.
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2020-10-31, 10:58 AM #21933I am Murloc!
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Yep, every time someone posts that picture of Hillary having that high of a chance to win, someone needs to tell them, that the picture was taken before the Comey release that was against FBI and DoJ policy about electioneering so close to an election. Originally Posted by fwc577
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2020-10-31, 11:52 AM #21934Banned
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If you're going to dispute numbers Trumphadi at least understand what they mean. 91% is the chance of the candidate winning, not the votes they are expected to get. Originally Posted by TheramoreIsTheBomb
Nuance, not your strong point right.
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2020-10-31, 01:56 PM #21935Herald of the Titans
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Man wouldn't it be nice if Trump was gone and the politics forum could actually be used for discussion of policy? Originally Posted by Felya
Originally Posted by Jimmy Woods
Originally Posted by Ghostpanther
Originally Posted by Breccia
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2020-10-31, 01:57 PM #21936Void Lord
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I’m just hoping that there is a switch back... and if there is... it’s as swift as how we got here. Originally Posted by Antiganon
Folly and fakery have always been with us... but it has never before been as dangerous as it is now, never in history have we been able to afford it less. - Isaac Asimov
Every damn thing you do in this life, you pay for. - Edith Piaf
The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. - Orwell
No amount of belief makes something a fact. - James Randi
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2020-10-31, 02:05 PM #21937The Unstoppable Force
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Originally Posted by TheramoreIsTheBomb
Do you? What came out a few days after this?MMO-Champ the place where calling out trolls get you into more trouble than trolling.
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2020-10-31, 03:29 PM #21938Herald of the Titans
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- Nov 2010
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Yeah, I miss @Skroe too. Originally Posted by Antiganon
"Law and Order", lots of places have had that, Russia, North Korea, Saddam's Iraq.
Laws can be made to enforce order of cruelty and brutality.
Equality and Justice, that is how you have peace and a society that benefits all.
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2020-10-31, 03:53 PM #21939Stood in the Fire
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Wait, are we really confusing betting odds with poll numbers? Originally Posted by TheramoreIsTheBomb
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2020-10-31, 03:57 PM #21940Grunt
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- Oct 2020
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For any one who actually cares about the truth here.
The polls are a) likely to be very inaccurate because they are modelling something which never happened before and b) hardcore trumpers are unlikely to talk to pollsters.
So this means the polls are probably overstating Biden's lead. However, and Republicans seem to miss this, they are still overstating a lead.
Trump will likely lose, but probably not by as much as polls indicate.
