Russian Opposition Leader Alexei Navalny Poisoned

[Mihalik]

Let's wait till the lab report says "food poisoning" before we jump out the window to conclusions.

The fact that his urine will probably set off a Geiger counter or cause of an environmental catastrophe if it gets into the water system will be totally coincidental.

Putin is just cleaning house before he gets Lukashenkoed too.

[Rustedsaint]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/21/europ...hnk/index.html
So he’s in Berlin now
Honestly it be funny if it turns out to be due to natural causes

[Breccia]

Honestly it be funny if it turns out to be due to natural causes

More of a relief. If he's faking, it needs to be outed. But if he really did criticize Putin and then get sudden serious natural causes, nobody here will blame him for assuming poison. Yes, nobody, not even the turnip farmers. If a Mafia boss's car just up and explodes because bad wiring, would you really blame him for assuming it was a bomb?

[Breccia]

Germany says "According to these tests, it sure looks like poison."

Navalny could not be reached for comment, because he's still in a coma. But, sure, could have been drinking heavily.

[YUPPIE]

it's so blatant and Putin gets away with it. It's crazy. The guy is pure evil but no one does anything about it.

[cubby]

it's so blatant and Putin gets away with it. It's crazy. The guy is pure evil but no one does anything about it.

I agree it's blatant and crazy. But...

What could the United States a functioning and legitimate democratic country do about it? Go to war? Sanctions - we're already doing that [sort of]? What else can other countries do?

[YUPPIE]

I agree it's blatant and crazy. But...

What could the United States a functioning and legitimate democratic country do about it? Go to war? Sanctions - we're already doing that [sort of]? What else can other countries do?

not other people but those citizens living inside Russia under his tyranny could go berserk and start a civil war. Gaddafi thought he was untouchable but eventually died being torn apart.

[Easo]

I agree it's blatant and crazy. But...

What could the United States a functioning and legitimate democratic country do about it? Go to war? Sanctions - we're already doing that [sort of]? What else can other countries do?

There are much worse sanctions which could be put up (say, cut off access to SWIFT, order Intel/AMD/Microsoft ban), but that requires two things:

1. Balls
2. Certain sacrifices (this goes mostly to the average Joe)

[Specialka]

not other people but those citizens living inside Russia under his tyranny could go berserk and start a civil war. Gaddafi thought he was untouchable but eventually died being torn apart.

It is not that simple. While I do not like Putin or his methods, why russia ppl should rebel ? I mean, take a look at the country from their point of view, Putin is 1000x better than everything else most of them have known (aka USSR and Elsin). Those who went abroad know better, but most of them have no interest "deposing" Putin as they benefit a lot from him.

[Ashnazg]

not other people but those citizens living inside Russia under his tyranny could go berserk and start a civil war. Gaddafi thought he was untouchable but eventually died being torn apart.

I am going to go out on a limb and say that you don't actually know any Russians living there under Putin's "tyranny". Never mind the fact that even those people who are pro-opposition don't want instability that comes with anything resembling civil war.

There are much worse sanctions which could be put up (say, cut off access to SWIFT, order Intel/AMD/Microsoft ban), but that requires two things:

1. Balls
2. Certain sacrifices (this goes mostly to the average Joe)

The problem with sanctions is that the more you use them, the less effective they become. SWIFT and certain other "nuclear options" might be effective short-term..maybe, but beyond that, Russia will work around them, and other countries that might be on the receiving end of those will do the same. At the end of the day, the only thing that will suffer is the SWIFT payment network.

[Thelxi]

I find it interesting that they would poison him so publicly, with a dose of a nerve agent that was very unlikely to kill him even over time, and then let him fly to a German hospital to make the case really clear to not just Russians but also the international community. It's brazen tactics that I think are more about sending a message to potential dissenters than an actual assassination attempt. If they really wanted him dead he'd probably have a heart attack or fall out of a window or something.

[Easo]

The problem with sanctions is that the more you use them, the less effective they become. SWIFT and certain other "nuclear options" might be effective short-term..maybe, but beyond that, Russia will work around them, and other countries that might be on the receiving end of those will do the same. At the end of the day, the only thing that will suffer is the SWIFT payment network.

Good luck working around those nuclear level sanctions. Putin will be dead (from old age) by the time it would be achieved IF it would be achieved, but first - a highly likely total economical collapse, which, to be fair, would impact other countries too, just not that badly.

[Ashnazg]

Good luck working around those nuclear level sanctions. Putin will be dead (from old age) by the time it would be achieved IF it would be achieved, but first - a highly likely total economical collapse, which, to be fair, would impact other countries too, just not that badly.

That's unlikely. Harsh sanctions on Iran have limited effect, and Russia's no Iran - its far more self sufficient, not to mention it has a number of countries around the world which are willing and able to work with it even if US does the worst it can.

[Slant]

I am going to go out on a limb and say that you don't actually know any Russians living there under Putin's "tyranny". Never mind the fact that even those people who are pro-opposition don't want instability that comes with anything resembling civil war.

The problem with sanctions is that the more you use them, the less effective they become. SWIFT and certain other "nuclear options" might be effective short-term..maybe, but beyond that, Russia will work around them, and other countries that might be on the receiving end of those will do the same. At the end of the day, the only thing that will suffer is the SWIFT payment network.

With the US being a Russian puppet state, something like SWIFT isn't even on the table. Or anything else that matters really. But Russia's economy is tanking regardless, which is good. They can do less damage if they have less influence on markets.

[Easo]

That's unlikely. Harsh sanctions on Iran have limited effect, and Russia's no Iran - its far more self sufficient, not to mention it has a number of countries around the world which are willing and able to work with it even if US does the worst it can.

Even Iran has not received a full economical blockade. In fact, not even North Korea has. As I said, there are a lot of things that can be used against Russia, if USA had balls and be willing to tolerate sacrifices (which means more unrest).
Countries willing to help? Who could prop up Russia? No one, maybe just China, who has more important issues to worry about and would prefer to keep selling shit to West, which actually can buy it.

And, most importantly, Russia is not Iran, last thing Putin would want is economy going down, he cannot just shoot up protesters en masse. His popularity is based on keeping the economy on a more or less acceptable level.

With the US being a Russian puppet state, something like SWIFT isn't even on the table. Or anything else that matters really. But Russia's economy is tanking regardless, which is good. They can do less damage if they have less influence on markets.

Yep, no nuclear level sanctions are realistic. But their economy is going down - though let's be honest, so is everyone else's, question is - how quickly they can recover instead.

[Slant]

Yep, no nuclear level sanctions are realistic. But their economy is going down - though let's be honest, so is everyone else's, question is - how quickly they can recover instead.

Their economy has been steadily going down for a long while. The sanctions definitely have an effect. Recover? Probably just as well as everyone else, in comparison maybe a bit better. That gas line to Germany is opening up soon and if there's one thing the world is always hungry for it's energy. And Russia has that in abundance. So they'll be alright, but they won't be in a better position than before. Unfortunately, I don't see sanctions having the desired outcome. Russian people do not care enough about politics to make something happen and Putin can just lie his way through anything.

Essentially, the story is this "The West sanctions us because they hate us. Has nothing to do with Crimea." And they believe it, too. In that regards, sanctions are useless.

[Ashnazg]

Their economy has been steadily going down for a long while. The sanctions definitely have an effect. Recover? Probably just as well as everyone else, in comparison maybe a bit better. That gas line to Germany is opening up soon and if there's one thing the world is always hungry for it's energy. And Russia has that in abundance. So they'll be alright, but they won't be in a better position than before. Unfortunately, I don't see sanctions having the desired outcome. Russian people do not care enough about politics to make something happen and Putin can just lie his way through anything.

Essentially, the story is this "The West sanctions us because they hate us. Has nothing to do with Crimea." And they believe it, too. In that regards, sanctions are useless.

In fact, the harder Putin cracks down on the opposition, the more support he has among the rural and the hardliner part of Russian population, who perceive all opposition to be the "fifth column". Sanctioning Russia for that only reinforces their beliefs and gives more support to the current government, since Russian people tend to rally against the outside oppressors.

That's part of the reason why the sanctions related to Crimea annexation were so muted - people in charge of policy aren't dumb and they know that broad sanctions against the populace are not going to have the desired effect.

[Slant]

In fact, the harder Putin cracks down on the opposition, the more support he has among the rural and the hardliner part of Russian population, who perceive all opposition to be the "fifth column". Sanctioning Russia for that only reinforces their beliefs and gives more support to the current government, since Russian people tend to rally against the outside oppressors.

That's part of the reason why the sanctions related to Crimea annexation were so muted - people in charge of policy aren't dumb and they know that broad sanctions against the populace are not going to have the desired effect.

Yes, at some point you'll have to decide the two options you have: 1. Lift sanctions and give Crimea up, because honestly, it's not our problem really. 2. Sanction Russia until they crumble and starve them into submission.

1. Would just be sold as the "Russian victory over the West" with Putin flaunting his "dominance" over the EU, so that's out.
2. Would really paint the EU in a bad light, and I'm not sure if that wouldn't be justified. On the other hand, it might demonstrate how far the EU is going to go and that it actually does have a hefty clout. Fallout be damned. I mean, nobody really cares what Russia thinks about us anyway, it can't get much worse than it is now. We're already the evil West in their eyes. On the other hand, it would go against some of our core values, one of which is to respect another nations sovereignity. Putting up sanctions to affect political change in a country is already questionable. We're hooking this on Crimea, so that's fine. But how much sanctions are actually justified for a stupid island that's not even in our territory? Should we sanction China, too for HK? People are saying that, but wouldn't this just be another variant of European Imperialism where we just sort of naturally assume everyone should listen to us?

Or, secret option 3. Continue as we are indefinitely. Which is what the EU is good at, just continue the current status quo forever. EU is patient.

[Easo]

Well well well -

Russia's Navalny poisoned with Novichok - German government

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54002880

[Shalcker]

Well well well -



https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54002880

Wouldn't that give quite obvious signs everyone around him should be able to notice? Eye dilation and all?

It was quite well-publicized at the time.

...i guess the only way it could make sense from Russian side is if poisoners for whatever reason wanted to create pretext for another "Evil West trying to blame innocent Russia! ...again!" campaign.

Or perhaps if they wanted to somehow pin blame on Putin.

Because otherwise if Putin did it then letting him out to Germany would make no sense at all.