Dragonflight Alpha/Beta General Discussion

[Nyel]

Unlikely. But the "nightmare scenario" of BC dropping before 9.1 still seems very likely.

Why is it a nightmare scenario though? Because it could imply that they prioritized TBC over retail or why?

[razorpax]

2 weeks until ptr
Early July release possibly just based on the ptr cycles
This means that the one year mark will have 9.2 on ptr maybe and then 9.3 summer of next year

[Wangming]

2 weeks until ptr
Early July release possibly just based on the ptr cycles
This means that the one year mark will have 9.2 on ptr maybe and then 9.3 summer of next year

I wouldn't hold my breath for a 9.3. It wouldn't fit unless SL is extra long. Do we want it to be extra long?

Maaaaybe if 10.0 comes with a huge revamp, but the realist in me says that won't be the case.

[Slowpoke is a Gamer]

Why is it a nightmare scenario though? Because it could imply that they prioritized TBC over retail or why?

Well I don't think it's a nightmare but I know after Blizzcon a bunch of people were saying "If 9.1 isn't until after BC Classic, in Summer instead of Spring, then that's a disaster. Worst content drought in WoW history."

And now that looks to be what is happening.

- - - Updated - - -

I wouldn't hold my breath for a 9.3. It wouldn't fit unless SL is extra long. Do we want it to be extra long?

Maaaaybe if 10.0 comes with a huge revamp, but the realist in me says that won't be the case.

Honestly 9.3 fits just fine. We're still on about a 5-7 month patch cycle. It'll be tight but they can fit 9.3 in easily on that cycle.

[Wangming]

Honestly 9.3 fits just fine. We're still on about a 5-7 month patch cycle. It'll be tight but they can fit 9.3 in easily on that cycle.

How so? 9.1 is late June at the earliest. That would put 9.2 around december (with six months) and 11 months till the two years mark. An expansion lasts on average two years, and the final raid tier is around 10 months. Nothing easy about it.

[Slowpoke is a Gamer]

How so? 9.1 is late June at the earliest. That would put 9.2 around december (with six months) and 11 months till the two years mark. An expansion lasts on average two years, and the final raid tier is around 10 months. Nothing easy about it.

9.1 - July
9.2 - December
9.3 - June
10.0 - November


They'd have to basically bail on "Late Summer" expansions and go all-in on the October/November window again, but they can do it.

[Omedon]

and the final raid tier is around 10 months

Above and beyond this... will anyone really complain if the expansion tail is actually closer to a "tight" 6 months?

Though I do think they will use mid-expansion mini lulls and potentially a traditional tail to place 10.0 where they want it on the calendar, if we actually get a short tail, who's gonna complain?

[Nyel]

Honestly 9.3 fits just fine. We're still on about a 5-7 month patch cycle. It'll be tight but they can fit 9.3 in easily on that cycle.

Let’s do the math:

9.1: June 21
6 months
9.2: December 21
6 months
9.3: June 22
6 months
10.0: December 22

That‘s the optimistic perspective. If 9.1 launches in July, there’s no chance for 9.2 in 2021, otherwise 9.1 would only last for 5 months. 9.2 in January with a raid tier that lasts for 6 months would bring 9.3 to July 22. And 10.0 then in December 22? I mean the schedule is really really busy to fit two more raid tiers into Shadowlands if the next expansion launches in Q4/22.

What if we get 9.1 in July, 9.2 in January and 10.0 in August? Does that sound more or less likely than the option above?

Edit: just saw your new post. Do you really think raid tiers of 5 months are likely, especially during COVID times?

[Slowpoke is a Gamer]

Let’s do the math:

9.1: June 21
6 months
9.2: December 21
6 months
9.3: June 22
6 months
10.0: December 22

That‘s the optimistic perspective. If 9.1 launches in July, there’s no chance for 9.2 in 2021, otherwise 9.1 would only last for 5 months. 9.2 in January with a raid tier that lasts for 6 months would bring 9.3 to July 22. And 10.0 then in December 22? I mean the schedule is really really busy to fit two more raid tiers into Shadowlands if the next expansion launches in Q4/22.

What if we get 9.1 in July, 9.2 in January and 10.0 in August? Does that sound more or less likely than the option above?

Edit: just saw your new post. Do you really think raid tiers of 5 months are likely, especially during COVID times?

Depends where we're at by 2022. If they can get back to the office by year's end, it can work.

If they are staying Work from Home no way this is absolutely ending with 9.2.

[Aeluron Lightsong]

I don't think WFH is going to affect the number of Patches, thats unrelated.

[Wangming]

Above and beyond this... will anyone really complain if the expansion tail is actually closer to a "tight" 6 months?

I doubt they really would, unless they are completely retarded. But we never had a final raid tier shorter than 7 months and that was back in Vanilla. Half of the final raid tiers were over ten months. I would be happy to be wrong, but I don't they will break this pattern now when they are slow with everything.

[Slowpoke is a Gamer]

I don't think WFH is going to affect the number of Patches, thats unrelated.

If it's unrelated then there's something much worse going on with WoW then. Something fatal. Because if this delay isn't from COVID then it's from Blizzard not caring about Retail anymore.

[Aeluron Lightsong]

If it's unrelated then there's something much worse going on with WoW then. Something fatal. Because if this delay isn't from COVID then it's from Blizzard not caring about Retail anymore.

A lot of things are slowed down, seems pretty typical instead of this "Sky is falling" nonsense.

[Dracullus]

I don't think WFH is going to affect the number of Patches, thats unrelated.

Truth is, there is too much variables.

We don't know how much longer working for home will last.
We don't know what's their plan with Classic, hell maybe they'll use WoTLK too to fill late SL drought if 10.0 will take too long?
We don't know how hard HQ will push devs to release expansion in 2022. Even without WoW expac it will be (probably) good year for Blizzard, with D4, OV2, finally proper Blizzcon.

Finally we don't know what 10.0 will be. Call me optimistic, but I smell something bigger. I gave my arguments in different posts (main argument: while BfA was expansion when they put ton of resources into useless content, like making separate Horde/Alliance leveling with ton of side quests no one was doing, SL has signifant less zones, dungeons, quests and it was all designed before working-from-home; since dev team is same as before - what rest devs were doing?).

My default prediction is regular 3 patches with 4 raid tiers. Only time we didn't had it was WoD and it was rumored way before launch. But times are so uncertain I don't want to die on this hill.

Even if you 100% sure 9.2 will be last patch, I suggest you same, otherwise it's easy to look as clown afterwards. Some people here made same mistake two years ago, and of course they also were providing detailed argumentation why 8.3 100% won't be the case.

[GreenJesus]

Depends where we're at by 2022. If they can get back to the office by year's end, it can work.

If they are staying Work from Home no way this is absolutely ending with 9.2.

I don't know why they can't go back to the office. I'm working from the office in southern california and doing fine. Restaurants are opening up, theme parks are opening up, etc. Life is almost back to normal already. People are traveling for vacations and seeing family again. People my parents' ages are all getting/have gotten the vaccine. Covid is basically behind us. Covid is no longer an excuse.

[malasio]

I think we're going to see Mueh'zala again.

[razorpax]

I wouldn't hold my breath for a 9.3. It wouldn't fit unless SL is extra long. Do we want it to be extra long?

Maaaaybe if 10.0 comes with a huge revamp, but the realist in me says that won't be the case.

Do we have any reason to believe they will cut the 3 patch cycle that they settled on and said is the “sweet spot” after the rushed garbage that was WoD development??

9.3 won’t be a year long but it will exist just like 8.3

[Aeluron Lightsong]

Covid is basically behind us.

Not yet it isn't not even close.

Finally we don't know what 10.0 will be. Call me optimistic, but I smell something bigger. I gave my arguments in different posts (main argument: while BfA was expansion when they put ton of resources into useless content, like making separate Horde/Alliance leveling with ton of side quests no one was doing, SL has signifant less zones, dungeons, quests and it was all designed before working-from-home; since dev team is same as before - what rest devs were doing?).

I'm not saying I don't like this, I do but I think we should be careful not to hype up about it until we see something that actually is evidence of this. P.S. I am ok with this big idea for 10.0

[Wangming]

Do we have any reason to believe they will cut the 3 patch cycle that they settled on and said is the “sweet spot” after the rushed garbage that was WoD development??

9.3 won’t be a year long but it will exist just like 8.3

Good question. Right back at you: Do we have any reason to believe the will discard the two year expansion cycle that they settled on and said is the "sweet spot" just to add several more months to the snorefest that is SL?

We have two sweet spots, and one of them has to go.

[Nyel]

Do we have any reason to believe they will cut the 3 patch cycle that they settled on and said is the “sweet spot” after the rushed garbage that was WoD development??

9.3 won’t be a year long but it will exist just like 8.3

Reason? It’s just the timeline that barely fits, that’s all. It’s a lot of ifs and whens. I think it’s pretty unlikely that they will not have the next expansion ready by the end of 2022. And if we assume it will release in the last month of 2022 (aka December), every tier of Shadowlands will only last 6 months (and that’s only the case if 9.1 drops in early June, which is very optimistic). As I said, a lot of ifs and whens. Possible? Sure. But will the pandemic years be the first time they finally achieve a last tier that doesn’t come with an average drought of 8-10 months? Uhm...

So, if we apply the things above:

- Castle Nathria will be the longest raid tier of Shadowlands with 7 months

- the final tier will only last 6 instead of 8-10 months

- 9.1 gets released in early / mid June

- the next expansion will get released in December 2022

- every content patch of Shadowlands only lasts for 6 or less months

... an expansion cycle with three content patches is possible and likely. Now answer all of these things for yourself and tell me what you think about the points above.

Or let me use another example: if 9.1 launches in June, it will be around the same time as 8.2 was released. And now apply the BfA pre-pandemic schedule to the Shadowlands schedule and see how that fits.