2021-2022 NFL Thread

[Breccia]

A lot of QBs look very bad this year

Hey everyone, numbers guy here.

So let's take a look at the current situation. ESPN has something called Total QBR which they defend in this article. Whether you agree with it or not, it's an objective number based on objective events. I could do the same thing with, say, total passing yards.

Anyhow, in 2021 regular season so far, the mean is 49.45, the median is 50.85, and the standard deviation is 11.92

In 2020, regular season, the mean was 58.28, the median was 59.8, and the standard deviation was 11.85

In 2019, the mean was 58.07 the median was 56.7 and the standard deviation was 12 even.

Further spot-checking in prior years gave similar results to 2020 and 2019, so I basically stopped looking.

Yes, 2021 is significantly lower than we've seen in recent years. I checked the 2021 rule changes, but did not see anything I could call the cause of this.

Then, just to be sure, I used yds/pass for anyone over XXX attempts. The results were different, in that they weren't different. 2021 2020 and 2019 all averaged about 7.3 yards per attempt.

Then I looked at sacks. By team, both averages are 25. In 2020, they were 35.5 and 36.5 Pro-rating 2021's number of games to a full season, that's also nearly identical. Huh.

Then I checked total passing attempts (by team). Same thing -- 2021 pro-rates to 2020 and 2019 very well.

So if
a) they're passing about the same per attempt, and
b) making the same number of attempts, and
c) not being sacked any more often
What's causing a dip in QB effectiveness?

I kept looking at stat after stat, and finally found what could be the answers.

One, 3rd down conversions are down, but 4th are up. I'm hardly an expert, but I feel that this could be the result of a shift from passing towards running in do-or-die plays. But even if I'm right, that could be a symptom and not the cause.

Two, I think there's more rookie QBs this year. I don't watch 31/32 draft picks because if they're not the Eagles or playing the Eagles I don't really pay much attention, but after checking a few sites, it looks like there were 10 rookie QBs in 2021, but only 6 in 2020 and 7 in 2019. So it might be less "they're bad" and more "they're new and still getting the hang of things". It would also explain the previous point -- if you have a rookie QB and really need four yards right fucking now, you might be more tempted to go for a running play than a passing play.

Anyhow, maybe in all this rambling something actually makes sense.

[ProphetFlume]

Anyhow, maybe in all this rambling something actually makes sense.

It was interesting. The dip in sacks is what really caught my eye - I wonder if The amount of ridiculous roughing the passer penalties we’ve seen are part of that.

[Coniferous]

Hey everyone, numbers guy here.

So let's take a look at the current situation. ESPN has something called Total QBR which they defend in this article. Whether you agree with it or not, it's an objective number based on objective events. I could do the same thing with, say, total passing yards.

Anyhow, in 2021 regular season so far, the mean is 49.45, the median is 50.85, and the standard deviation is 11.92

In 2020, regular season, the mean was 58.28, the median was 59.8, and the standard deviation was 11.85

In 2019, the mean was 58.07 the median was 56.7 and the standard deviation was 12 even.

Further spot-checking in prior years gave similar results to 2020 and 2019, so I basically stopped looking.

Yes, 2021 is significantly lower than we've seen in recent years. I checked the 2021 rule changes, but did not see anything I could call the cause of this.

Then, just to be sure, I used yds/pass for anyone over XXX attempts. The results were different, in that they weren't different. 2021 2020 and 2019 all averaged about 7.3 yards per attempt.

Then I looked at sacks. By team, both averages are 25. In 2020, they were 35.5 and 36.5 Pro-rating 2021's number of games to a full season, that's also nearly identical. Huh.

Then I checked total passing attempts (by team). Same thing -- 2021 pro-rates to 2020 and 2019 very well.

So if
a) they're passing about the same per attempt, and
b) making the same number of attempts, and
c) not being sacked any more often
What's causing a dip in QB effectiveness?

I kept looking at stat after stat, and finally found what could be the answers.

One, 3rd down conversions are down, but 4th are up. I'm hardly an expert, but I feel that this could be the result of a shift from passing towards running in do-or-die plays. But even if I'm right, that could be a symptom and not the cause.

Two, I think there's more rookie QBs this year. I don't watch 31/32 draft picks because if they're not the Eagles or playing the Eagles I don't really pay much attention, but after checking a few sites, it looks like there were 10 rookie QBs in 2021, but only 6 in 2020 and 7 in 2019. So it might be less "they're bad" and more "they're new and still getting the hang of things". It would also explain the previous point -- if you have a rookie QB and really need four yards right fucking now, you might be more tempted to go for a running play than a passing play.

Anyhow, maybe in all this rambling something actually makes sense.

QBR is not a good stat, it includes way too many things like weighting late game performance more, and it's trying to assess the quarterback's contribution to winning, not how good he is (so like, if the defense holds the other team to a lower amount of points, I believe that negatively affects QBR when it's a rout).

QB play is slightly down - same sack rate, slightly more interceptions (around 10% more) and slightly fewer TDs (like 7% fewer). Not enormous, but a small bit.

[Breccia]

QBR is not a good stat

It was just the first objective numeric scoring I found. Unless it somehow gives more points to one team/player over another, it's just as valid for this purpose as anything else. I'm not planning on using it for much else, I just saw the first post and thought "well I've got this stat training and software and am bored, so..."

That said, I was curious at the time what the formula for that score was, but from your description I'm not sure I care anymore. You make it sound like nobody uses it...well, other than ESPN of course.

[Coniferous]

It was just the first objective numeric scoring I found. Unless it somehow gives more points to one team/player over another, it's just as valid for this purpose as anything else. I'm not planning on using it for much else, I just saw the first post and thought "well I've got this stat training and software and am bored, so..."

That said, I was curious at the time what the formula for that score was, but from your description I'm not sure I care anymore. You make it sound like nobody uses it...well, other than ESPN of course.

It looks at the outcome of each play and tries to determine the effect on winning, meaning certain plays are worth way more than others so you get a lot of weird results.

QB rating, flawed as it is, is actually an attempt to measure qb stats so it’s far better than qbr. A 100 qb rating is almost always a good game, below 80 is bad. QBR doesn’t really work that way.

[Vetali]

Its a league with 32 teams. I can think of 4 QBs that took a sizable step down from last season. Wilson, Allen, Mahomes, Mayfield. Mayfield is injured. Wilson really doesn't skew it too much when looking at rating. Hes still posting above 100 on the season. Just he still hasn't thrown that many ints and missed 3 games.

Plus there are lots of rookies shitting it up... yeah, QB play isn't amazing this year but I don't think its due to limited OTA + shortened pre season. I know in the Seahawks case its them having no run game mixed with no middle of the field passing or screens. Add that with Wilson unable to play jesus ball, the offense is completely useless.

[xskarma]

Its a league with 32 teams. I can think of 4 QBs that took a sizable step down from last season. Wilson, Allen, Mahomes, Mayfield.

Eh, on the other hand, the Patriots upgraded at QB with a sizeable step, so it's compensated in some spots too. Bengals having Burrow all year and him playing well. Kyler Murray seemed to have taken a step when he was healthy.

Wentz in Indy seems better than what they had last year, and Wentz started for Philly last year and was decidedly less good than this year. On the other hand, Texans had Deshaun Watson last year and now they don't.

Big Ben seems washed and worse. Tua seems to be improving. Washington had a carousel last year and seems if anything slightly better in that department this year.

Carolina is a disaster, but they were last year too. Saints losing Brees is huge. I don;t think Stafford is better or Goff is worse than last year, even though they swapped places, so that's no change. Bears technically upgraded, but I'll accept that the actual play is worse for them than what Trubisky delivered, even if that was only through being consistently kinda bad.

So yeah, if there's any reason for the slight decline in play overall, it's probably cause Deshaun Watson and Drew Brees got replaced with not great players and those players then got hurt on top of it, and also the rookies from this year and last year have not really done all that much yet, apart from Mac Jones and Justin Herbert.

[ProphetFlume]

Wasn’t last year the season where Alex smith returned and played in enough games to get them into the playoffs but couldn’t play in the actual game? They’re certainly competent behind Heineken. People shit on cousins so much but he’s probably the best qb Washington has had in memory. (Anyone else remember the RG1 jokes?) Sure, smith was better in a vacuum, but I’m not sure he even played a double digit number of games with them.

[Grube]

Antonio Brown was suspended 3 games for "misrepresenting" his vaccination status. Turns out you should pay people when you hire them or they might cause problems for you.

Kind of surprised it is only 3 games considering his history and what other leagues have done in that situation.

[draynay]

Antonio Brown was suspended 3 games for "misrepresenting" his vaccination status. Turns out you should pay people when you hire them or they might cause problems for you.

Kind of surprised it is only 3 games considering his history and what other leagues have done in that situation.

Questionable suspension lengths, par for the course with Goodell.

- - - Updated - - -

Woooo Thursday night football, covid! injuries! these teams are a combined 1-7 over their last four games, get hyped!

[Kyanion]

Blindside block when the player rushing the QB was trying to dodge the block attempt and saw it the whole time. What a fucking pathetic flag.

[ProphetFlume]

Hill with a series of great runs followed by a horrible pass that shouldve been a td.

At least they're being fair in not calling PI

[draynay]

Picking up a blitzer is only a penalty when the Saints are concerned.

[Grube]

I don't understand letting Taysom Hill throw the ball 27 times, that seems like a good way to not score points.

Also, Tony Pollard>>>>>>Zeke

[draynay]

I don't understand letting Taysom Hill throw the ball 27 times, that seems like a good way to not score points.

Also, Tony Pollard>>>>>>Zeke

Still I feel good about the zero throws from Siemian.

[Kyanion]

Still I feel good about the zero throws from Siemian.

That's how I feel about it as well. I like watching Hill play. Sad that this finger injury is hampering some throws though.

[ProphetFlume]

I don't understand letting Taysom Hill throw the ball 27 times, that seems like a good way to not score points.

Also, Tony Pollard>>>>>>Zeke

Every few weeks I remember Zeke is still on the cowboys.

[Vetali]

Even Hill with the Wilson limp finger is better than Siemian lol.

[Kyanion]

Man that was a bad throw. Ugh that was a worse throw.

[ProphetFlume]

Can someone tell me how hill isn’t ersatz Tebow?