China... how to deal with them?

[Corvus]

Carriers are for power projection, something they very much are interested in.

It must be noted that they have not shown those MRBM missiles are actually capable of hitting a moving ship at sea.

Its obvious that they are for power projection, but they say that they aren't interested in power projection. What they say and what they do are somewhat at odds.

[Kellhound]

Its obvious that they are for power projection, but they say that they aren't interested in power projection. What they say and what they do are somewhat at odds.

Words are cheap, aircraft carriers are not......

[Rasulis]

I do have to wonder about China's obsession with aircraft carriers. They don't need them for what they claim they want to do, but stranger is the fact they keep saying aircraft carriers are obsolete by their super-duper aircraft carrier killer missiles and yet they keep wanting to build lots of them.

Do they not think others can build aircraft carrier killer missiles to take out their own aircraft carriers? Or is that a silent admission that their missiles just aren't anywhere as good as they claim?

Speaking of missiles, Taiwan has just announced it has started mass production of a long ranged land based missile capable of hitting targets in mainland China, things like ports, airfields, radar sites etc. And they have three other models in development. This is the first time they have had a missile capable of striking back against the Chinese mainland.

The Taiwanese Strait is not all that wide. Only between 80 km to 180 km. Taiwan's Wan Chien, and the Hsiung Feng IIE have an approximate 240 and 600 kilometer range respectively. So hitting Chinese bases on the mainland is not an issue.

The new Yun Feng rockets on the other hand have a range of 1,200 to 2,000 km. Which put Beijing and Shanghai well within striking range. On top of that, the new rockets are supersonic. At the moment, China does not have the technology to intercept supersonic rockets. Not reliably at least. That will be a huge deterrent against China invading Taiwan.

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Aircraft carriers are not for attacking Taiwan, the entire island is well within land based fighters. Carriers are for power projection.

This is true. Chinese aircraft carriers are mostly for show. Liaoning and Shandong in the Taiwanese Strait would be like giant glowing bullseyes for every Taiwanese fighter jets, rocket launchers and submarines.

China needs tank/troop carriers and paratroopers to invade Taiwan. They don't have either in sufficient quantity right now. Not even close. They can carpet bomb and rained rockets on Taiwan. However, there will be nothing left for them when they finally conquered the island.

[Dezerte]

Just seen this gem, almost spilled my coffee.

During my business trips to China, I had pleasure of inspecting a pretty big electronics factory owned by corporation conglomerate worth for tens of billions dollars. I seen what can't be any older than 18 years old (probably 16-17) working 12 hour shifts 6 hours a day at conveyors soldering electronics, packaging and testing like robots.

The manager, Mr Wang, told us that the factory never stops, factory that stops is lost money and if needed workers work 7 days a week too if it means stopping production otherwise.

The sla... "workers" also live there in dormitories for which they pay, they are not allowed to get married and the factory is located 40 minutes drive from nearest town in the middle of nowhere. If they get married they must move out which means they are out of job, effectively.

And said workers have no choice, because it's either that or back to their villages with no prospects whatsoever at all, which is even worse. My Chinese colleague told me that people are conscripting to army willingly and serve years, because when they get discharged they get automatically an official job (which can be latrines cleaning at stadium, per their words) - that's a good prospect there.

But yeah, man, China sure tackles that slave labor problem there. It's this, practically for all intents and purposes, slave labor is what put them where they are and that's only the tip of an iceberg with massive corruption culture in China.


Here's another example - prostitution is banned by law and is a crime in China... that unless the "establishment" is owned by a party official. Of course it's not quite in the face thing, but as long as it masks itself as a "spa" and has a proper patron in the party who gets his cut, it's all peachy. Girls who don't want to work in the factory are welcome there, though competition from surrounding countries' "workers" is intense.

But hey China sure tackles that slave labor issue.

I see now that I worded it poorly. That text should have stood on it's own and not be a part of "do what China is doing".

[Calfredd]

China is a good model to follow/aspire to be.

Whatever you say new account.

[Ihavewaffles]

The Taiwanese Strait is not all that wide. Only between 80 km to 180 km. Taiwan's Wan Chien, and the Hsiung Feng IIE have an approximate 240 and 600 kilometer range respectively. So hitting Chinese bases on the mainland is not an issue.

The new Yun Feng rockets on the other hand have a range of 1,200 to 2,000 km. Which put Beijing and Shanghai well within striking range. On top of that, the new rockets are supersonic. At the moment, China does not have the technology to intercept supersonic rockets. Not reliably at least. That will be a huge deterrent against China invading Taiwan.

Trying to build such missiles in large numbers could provoke China that could bomb those missile factories in Taiwan, China don't need to invade at once, just keep US away n slowly degrade Taiwan's capabilities.

I fear by trying too hard to keep China away, u will only force their hand. And I don't think US will start ww3 for little Taiwan..just keep Taiwan away from Beijing as long as possible.

[Stormdash]

The current plan seems to be for western media and civil institutions to uncritically pass along CPC propaganda so they keep getting kicked back. That applies equally well to both the human rights abuses of Ugyhur concentration/work camps and the human rights abuses and lies related to the origins and spread of covid.

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China is a good model to follow/aspire to be.

If what you want to be is the most prolific human rights abuser in the post-WWII world, sure

[kaid]

The current plan seems to be for western media and civil institutions to uncritically pass along CPC propaganda so they keep getting kicked back. That applies equally well to both the human rights abuses of Ugyhur concentration/work camps and the human rights abuses and lies related to the origins and spread of covid.

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If what you want to be is the most prolific human rights abuser in the post-WWII world, sure

Not to mention china would shit bricks if the US decided to follow their model and do the same things to china and their companies that they do to everybody else. Chinas model only works for as long as everybody plays by the rules but for reasons accepts behavior from china that they won't accept from anybody else. Eventually if china continues the way they have been there will come a time where it is no longer worth the risk/effort/loss of IP to try to access a closed market.

[xenogear3]

Is your prediction "German, China, Russia vs the rest of the world" in world war 3?

German is getting better and better teammates, far better than World War 2.
The rest of the world is in big trouble.

[Hilhen7]

If the US is going into any major wars it wont be about human rights issues in another country. Republicans don't even care about human rights in the their own backyard....

[Rasulis]

Trying to build such missiles in large numbers could provoke China that could bomb those missile factories in Taiwan, China don't need to invade at once, just keep US away n slowly degrade Taiwan's capabilities.

I fear by trying too hard to keep China away, u will only force their hand. And I don't think US will start ww3 for little Taiwan..just keep Taiwan away from Beijing as long as possible.

Not “trying”, Taiwan is actually “building” those missiles. As of August 2019, National Security reported that Taiwan had 20 Yung Chen missiles mounted of mobile platforms. Probably hidden in deep underground bunkers. How many has been constructed since then and how many they will ultimately build are unknown. Taiwan kept their missile development low profile to keep from provoking China. By 2025, they will probably have several hundred of those missiles aimed at the mainland.

There are several questions that need to be answered when it comes to China invading Taiwan.

Can they? Sure. If the Chinese decided to go full out invasion, there is nothing that Taiwan, the US and other Asian countries can do to stop the take over.

What cost are they willing to pay to conquer Taiwan? The answer here is trickier. One aspect that makes Taiwan so attractive to China is its industrial base. Can they keep that industrial base intact during an invasion? Not likely.

Every single realistic attack scenarios involved China carpet bombing and raining missile attack on Taiwan to destroy its military facilities. The problem for China is that Taiwanese engineers have had 70 years to build underground military bunkers to protect their military facilities. Getting to those requires major munition. So targeted strikes are out of the question. If the US could not do it in Iraq, I doubt the Chinese could do it in Taiwan.

What are the consequences of China failing to disable Taiwan’s rocket launching facilities and artillery batteries? Very bad for the Chinese. China only has 37 tank/troop landing carriers plus whatever civilian ships that they can convert to carriers. If Taiwan can sink half of those, which does not take much, the invasion will bog down to a long slough.

The landing operation also would be the best time for the US to strike if they do plan to get involved. This is when the Chinese invasion would be at its most vulnerable. All those troops and ships channeled through narrow beaches. A couple of bombing runs will turn those beaches into no man’s land. If China fail to land sufficient troops, their invasion is totally screwed.

[Corvus]

China is a good model to follow/aspire to be.

Well fascism is becoming more popular so I guess you got your wish.

[Logwyn]

The Ughyur (or however they're spelled) situation developed in the past year.

The Ughyur situation started about 7 years ago. When the CCP started placing them in camps. Not just a happened yesterday thing.

[Draco-Onis]

If the US is going into any major wars it wont be about human rights issues in another country. Republicans don't even care about human rights in the their own backyard....

That was their narrative when they failed to find WMDs in Iraq, the republican party has a giant boner for waring with China right now.

[Rasulis]

The Ughyur situation started about 7 years ago. When the CCP started placing them in camps. Not just a happened yesterday thing.

When Xi Jinping took over from Hu Jintao, the situation in Xinjiang for the Uyghurs went downhill really fast.

[JohnBrown1917]

If the US is going into any major wars it wont be about human rights issues in another country. Republicans don't even care about human rights in the their own backyard....

No, but they will use them as excuse like they always do. Not like the US,or any major power for that matter, ever actually cared about human rights.

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The current plan seems to be for western media and civil institutions to uncritically pass along CPC propaganda so they keep getting kicked back. That applies equally well to both the human rights abuses of Ugyhur concentration/work camps and the human rights abuses and lies related to the origins and spread of covid.

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If what you want to be is the most prolific human rights abuser in the post-WWII world, sure

The media is reporting everything they can find about those camps, no idea what your on about.

[Corvus]

That was their narrative when they failed to find WMDs in Iraq, the republican party has a giant boner for waring with China right now.

We just had 8 years of repubs in charge with no war. They have far too many business interests in China to want an actual war. I'd expect the democrats to be harder on China than the repubs ever would be.

[Rasulis]

An recent article from NPR which is basically a rehash of everything that I stated about China's semiconductor industry.

A Cautionary Tale For China's Ambitious Chipmakers

Hongxin made headlines in December 2019 when it managed to buy an older model lithography machine made by Dutch company ASML, despite American lobbying to prevent its sale to the Chinese chipmakers.

ASML sold the multimillion dollar piece of equipment — used to etch semiconductors — because of Jiang's top-notch reputation, according to two people familiar with the sale who were not authorized to speak publicly about it. ASML declined to comment.

Hongxin's timing was opportune. Chinese chip companies still rely heavily on European, American and Japanese technology — much of which, in turn, relies on American intellectual property, which the U.S. appears determined to keep out of Chinese hands. China's semiconductor demand continues to surge beyond what it can supply itself; trade data show that in 2019, Beijing imported around $350 billion worth in chips.

Given that reliance, China's central and local governments have been pumping money into the sector to accelerate domestic chip design and manufacturing. The country's latest five-year economic planning document released in March identifies integrated circuits — semiconductors — as a priority sector for research and development funding.

As early as late 2019, even while Hongxin was being lauded by Chinese media for securing an ASML machine, several Wuhan-based construction crews were scrambling to get paid for millions of dollars of work for Hongxin.

"Four months ago, [Hongxin's] payments to us started to be short, and now we are missing 18 million yuan [$2.76 million]," one contractor, Lu Haitao told another, Wang Liyun in December 2019, according to phone recordings NPR obtained. Wang confirmed the authenticity of the recordings when reached by phone. Lu did not respond to several texts and calls from NPR. Wuhan's municipal government did not respond to a request for comment.

Meanwhile, two other semiconductor companies — Tacoma Semiconductor Technology Co. Ltd. and Dehuai Semiconductor Technology Co. Ltd — were also running out of cash.

Technology analysts say China's most recent semiconductor flops illustrate how astronomical upfront costs in the industry are, even for local governments.

"What leading companies like South Korea's Samsung and Taiwan's chipmaker TSMC are spending in terms of R&D every year rivals some of the big government funds in China, so even if you use the lever of industrial policy and huge state subsidies, it's just really hard to compete with the established leaders," says Jeffrey Ding, who studies China's artificial intelligence and technological capabilities.

The dissolution of Hongxin, Tacoma and Dehuai has led to a cascading chain of bankruptcies in their wake.

Court records show the Wuhan government confiscated about 300 acres of land and even Hongxin's ASML machine to pay down an estimated 128 billion yuan ($19.6 billion) in debt.

Hongxin quietly moved out of its headquarters late last year, according to tenants next door. About 10 minutes' drive away, Hongxin's factory complex is nothing more than a concrete shell. Nearby, the entrance to its temporary offices had been freshly sealed with a concrete wall during an NPR visit in February.

"The executives are nowhere to be found," says Wang Liyin, a director at Huaiyu Construction Co. in Wuhan, which was subcontracted to build Hongxin's factory.

Wang alleges Hongxin contractors still owe him more than 40 million yuan ($6.14 million) for construction materials and is suing them in Wuhan court. Unable to pay his own employees, Wang says he has left China for the time being but refuses to disclose which country he is sheltering in: "As long as things continue to be bad, I will not come back."

Tacoma and Dehuai have officially declared bankruptcy, and local government bodies have taken over the companies' remaining assets for restructuring. "There is nothing much to say about Tacoma. Everything has been liquidated," says Si Wei, a former deputy director at the company.

Three other major businesses went bankrupt last year. Even established chip companies are seeing cash flow troubles; YMTC's parent company Tsinghua Unigroup said last December it had defaulted on paying the principal back on nearly $2.5 billion worth in bonds due to a "liquidity issue."

All in all, six wannabe China's semiconductor companies went bankrupt last year. Taking with them over 100 billion dollar in government money. Probably stashed in all kind of offshore foreign accounts.

[Easo]

Aircraft carriers are not for attacking Taiwan, the entire island is well within land based fighters. Carriers are for power projection.

Land based aircraft do not launch from the shore, Taiwan is a bit of a distance away anyway (you really want to have fighters with full load after all, not lightened) and there is the other side of it + sea to control.
They absolutely would be used.

[Rasulis]

Land based aircraft do not launch from the shore, Taiwan is a bit of a distance away anyway (you really want to have fighters with full load after all, not lightened) and there is the other side of it + sea to control.
They absolutely would be used.

The Taiwanese Strait is only 80 – 160 km wide. Shenjang J-15 has 3,000 km range fully loaded, J-31 has 1,200 km range. So range is not a problem. Bringing either the Liaoning and Shandong into the Taiwanese Strait, within Taiwan's missile range, on the other hand would be the height of military stupidity. Both are conventional powered, not nuclear, limited to only 6 days between refueling and require extensive land support. Both are equipped with anti-aircraft guns, but no anti-missile (Taiwan has thousands), no anti-submarine torpedo (Taiwan has those also), and no anti-ship guns. The antiquated STOBAR system that they used limit their aircraft launch and landing speed. Which left those aircrafts vulnerable.