Russia threatening to invade Ukraine 2.0

[Mihalik]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56720589

Ukrainian intelligence sources told the BBC that the extra forces amount to 16 battalion tactical groups, which would be up to 14,000 soldiers. In total, according to the Ukrainian presidency, Russia now has about 40,000 on the eastern border and about 40,000 in Crimea.

https://www.euronews.com/2021/04/12/...ukraine-border

Russia's defence minister has claimed the country's military buildup near Ukraine is a response to what he described as threats from NATO.

Speaking during a visit to a naval base in Gadzhiyevo, Russia on Tuesday, Sergei Shoigu said the deployment in western Russia was part of readiness drills that would continue for two weeks.

In the past three weeks, the Russian military has deployed two armies and three airborne formations to western regions in a move that has worried Ukraine.

It has also provoked the ire of NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg, who described the deployment as "unjustified, unexplained and deeply concerning" earlier on Tuesday.

Shoigu said the Russian exercise was provoked by what he said were efforts by the United States and its NATO allies to beef up their forces near Russia's borders, "threatening" Russia. “The troops have shown their full readiness to fulfil tasks to ensure the country's security,” he said.

So this is one of 2 things.

1. Putin actually wants to start a fight in Ukraine, starting a war to distract from domestic issues.
2. Putin is turning Russia into North Korea 2, using constant threats of war and military action as a form of communication with his neighbors.

Honestly. Don't know which is worse.

[Shadowferal]

Possibly this is Putin testing rhe Biden administration... To see the reactions.

[Machismo]

We all know Putin wants to get the USSR back together for a reunion tour.

[Shalcker]

It is more "Ukraine threatening to escalate conflict" though; Russia never threatened to invade.

Given that they are unwilling to follow agreed upon de-escalation process and basically withdrawn from Minsk agreement, it's hard to see it in any other way.

Like March 16 2021: Ukraine army on 'highest state of combat readiness' as Russia tensions erupt - way before there was any Russian build-up at the border.

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So this is one of 2 things.

1. Putin actually wants to start a fight in Ukraine, starting a war to distract from domestic issues.
2. Putin is turning Russia into North Korea 2, using constant threats of war and military action as a form of communication with his neighbors.

Honestly. Don't know which is worse.

Zelensky has more problems at home then Putin though; if you allow "war as distraction" as possibility in politics then have you considered that maybe Zelensky is the one trying to start war to distract from domestic issues?

There is also a problem of potentially losing billions $ of gas transit fees to Nord Stream 2 that war might (or might not) prevent - quite important thing to Ukrainian budget and all the political leeches that feed on it (certainly more important to them then Ukrainian lives).

For reference, entire Ukrainian budget gains in 2020 were around 3.3 billion $; 2019's 5-year transit deal with Russia was 7 billion $ total.

[Gaidax]

Putie is sad Biden called him murderer and is seeking attention. Quite literally. Next step will be some talks between him and Biden and him getting some perk to stand down.

Just a way to force contact and concessions from the new US administration.

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Of course I would not put it past him trying to actually grab another chunk there under pretext of "protecting poor oppressed Russian populace", would not be the first or third, especially seeing he got away with it every time anyway.

[Blur4stuff]

It's truly a shame what's happened with Russia over the past three decades. Even if Putin had still seized power and became dictator like he has, if he had done things differently the country could truly be leading the world right now. Especially with the enormous missteps by the US in that same period of time.

[Ihavewaffles]

Ehm, last I read about ukraine was like a week or so ago, pretty recently, they firing more artillery at innocent civilians, ehm....I mean "Putin's ewul forces of doom!" killed some 4-year old child (west never complains about civilian casualties done by ukraine). The purpose was that ukraine was making lots of noise about wanting to join NATO, who said "that'd be nice, but nope, no no no" ofc the US had Germany tell ukraine that instead of the US saying "we can't give u security guarantees that would lead to ww3 the moment u'd join, ffs!"

Now that joker of a president (no, really, his profession was a stand-up comedian, that decided to run for office, n won, lol) wants to look less of a failure so has to make lots of noise of ruski threat so west shows some interest n gift them some freebies or some shit so the president looks like he is doing something...

Don't get me wrong, I'd love for Putin to go in and flatten those ukrainian forces n their nazi battalions that have killed at least 10 000 people since 2014 n every day shooting some artillery shells (like india n pakistan do, but at civilians too..)

But Putin is a boring pragmatist n it would be unlike him to just jolt into action for no particular reason.

We have had these "Russia is about to mass-invade!!!!!!!!" threads for the past 6-7 years...

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-snip-

ah yes, the nord stream 2, i have to say i'm divided on the issue, on one side i love the cries of washington, kiev (and warsaw i just sneer at), but i also don't want germany getting all that gas. The problem of the eu is countries like germany behaving like they are in charge, they shouldn't get more buffs, but nerfs. There is also if NS2 won't happen, russia would get all the money back spent so far on the project, asia is forecast to massively increase energy consumption, i'd prefer that gas is instead sent to asia. This would impact gas prices in europe and the world, making Russia more monies I think long-term.

[kaid]

It is more "Ukraine threatening to escalate conflict" though; Russia never threatened to invade.

Given that they are unwilling to follow agreed upon de-escalation process and basically withdrawn from Minsk agreement, it's hard to see it in any other way.

Like March 16 2021: Ukraine army on 'highest state of combat readiness' as Russia tensions erupt - way before there was any Russian build-up at the border.

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Zelensky has more problems at home then Putin though; if you allow "war as distraction" as possibility in politics then have you considered that maybe Zelensky is the one trying to start war to distract from domestic issues?

There is also a problem of potentially losing billions $ of gas transit fees to Nord Stream 2 that war might (or might not) prevent - quite important thing to Ukrainian budget and all the political leeches that feed on it (certainly more important to them then Ukrainian lives).

For reference, entire Ukrainian budget gains in 2020 were around 3.3 billion $; 2019's 5-year transit deal with Russia was 7 billion $ total.

Um russia already invaded there is that whole Crimea thing. You do that once and your neighbors kinda no longer trust you very much when you mass troops on the border.

[Shalcker]

Um russia already invaded there is that whole Crimea thing. You do that once and your neighbors kinda no longer trust you very much when you mass troops on the border.

How exactly do you suppose Russia should react to Ukrainians increasing readiness of their forces, moving equipment to front lines, and giving every indication of preparing for military action?

Getting your own forces to the border seems like perfectly symmetric response that might prevent loss of life.

[kaid]

How exactly do you suppose Russia should react to Ukrainians increasing readiness of their forces, moving equipment to front lines, and giving every indication of preparing for military action?

Getting your own forces to the border seems like perfectly symmetric response that might prevent loss of life.

Go back to their own country?

[Machismo]

I can only assume more Russian soldiers are planning on going on vacation to Ukraine... with their tanks and artillery... and air support.

I wonder how many more passenger jets Putin is planning on shooting down.

[Thekri]

I am somewhat skeptical anything major will happen here. It is possible, but I suspect this is a damage control measure by Russia, not an offensive action. The Ukrainian Government wants an offensive to restore its territorial integrity, so it has been doing a troop buildup in the area. Russia is reinforcing the separatists with more "volunteers" who took their BMP-2s on vacation with them to prevent that from happening.

I don't personally think the Ukraine is going to be able to pull off a major offensive right now, even bankrolled by the US. Their existing issues with corruption and infighting is probably going to bog it down before it starts. They might try, but will likely quit after a few days of moderately heavy fighting, with little territory changing hands. It has the potential to be the largest flareup since 2014, but still not that significant overall. I don't expect to see Russian Troops trying to grab more land, unless the Ukrainians get really blown out (Which is unlikely, because the Russian/Separatist forces aren't notably more capable).

[postman1782]

Not surprising to see the Russian apologist and Putin defender in here still spreading fucking fake news.

[Corvus]

Russia blaming the victim as usual. Not surprising - Putin needs a distraction. Russia's own figures show they are massively under reporting the extent of the covid crisis. Officially just 50k have died but they are reporting 360k excess deaths for 2020.

Oh, and it is Ukraine, never The Ukraine. The Ukraine started as a way of Russia saying it was not a true country, but merely a part of Russia.

[Shalcker]

Go back to their own country?

Those troops are in their own country.

People in Donetsk/Luhansk right now aren't Russians, it's locals.

[postman1782]

Those troops are in their own country.

People in Donetsk/Luhansk right now aren't Russians, it's locals.

No, they aren't. Just like you lied when they weren't Russians before, you are lying now.

[Stormspellz]

How exactly do you suppose Russia should react to Ukrainians increasing readiness of their forces, moving equipment to front lines, and giving every indication of preparing for military action?

Getting your own forces to the border seems like perfectly symmetric response that might prevent loss of life.

simply put, leave and never return

[Mihalik]

Go back to their own country?

Foreign relations according to Russia.

Step 1. (Totally not) Invade a neighbor and annex parts of their country.
Step 2. After "totally not" invading a neighbor, admit that you have "totally not" invaded that neighbor, what happened was that a few random division accidentally wandered across the border and that region is now part of Russia. But, you "totally not" invaded your neighbor.
Step 3. Blame NATO for being "forced" to "totally not" annex part of Ukraine.
Step 4. "Stop resisting!" We are not invading you! Why are you resisting?

Wut?

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Those troops are in their own country.

People in Donetsk/Luhansk right now aren't Russians, it's locals.

No they are not. Remember when you were lying about how Russia wasn't invading Ukraine? Because everyone else does.

[Shalcker]

No they are not. Remember when you were lying about how Russia wasn't invading Ukraine? Because everyone else does.

It doesn't happen every time it is claimed to happen, or we would have taken over Ukraine already.

Do you think i have direct line to Kremlin telling me when troop are or aren't inside Ukraine?

Do you?

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simply put, leave and never return

No country is an island.

There was agreed upon resolution mechanism with Germany and France that Ukraine refused to follow, and now trying to do "alternative" setup.

[postman1782]

It doesn't happen every time it is claimed to happen, or we would have taken over Ukraine already.

The only reason you haven't, is because of all the aid that Ukraine is getting. Ukrainians don't want to be Russians.