2020 Census: Winnars and Losers!

[Milchshake]

The Census announced the Congressional reapportionments from the 2020 census today.

The states gaining U.S. House seats based on population shifts recorded by the 2020 census are...
Texas +2
Colorado +1
Florida +1
North Carolina +1
Montana +1
Oregon +1

States Losing seats...
California -1
Illinois -1
Michigan -1
New York -1
Ohio -1
Pennsylvania -1
West Virginia -1

Considering treends from 1960-2020:

• California, Florida, and Texas have collectively picked up 58 electoral votes (This census represents the first time California has lost a congressional seat since it became a state).
• New York, Ohio, and Pennsylvania have together lost 38 electoral votes.
• West Virginia has suffered the biggest proportional decline, losing half its electoral votes.
• Florida and Arizona have enjoyed the largest proportional gains, tripling and nearly tripling their representation in the EC respectively.

The population shift of the American electorate has been brought to you by Air Conditioning!

[Draco-Onis]

Frankly the 2020 census was a complete clusterfuck due to virus on top of Trump's shenanigans, it's most likely the most inaccurate census in modern times.

[Xyonai]

Frankly the 2020 census was a complete clusterfuck due to virus on top of Trump's shenanigans, it's most likely the most inaccurate census in modern times.

Yeah I was thinking the same thing, though I don't know what procedures there are for 'Do-overs' in this case.

[Bakis]

Yeah I was thinking the same thing, though I don't know what procedures there are for 'Do-overs' in this case.

Thank god!! we got places like Maricopa County.
That show how Do-overs should be in every local, state, federal instance

[PC2]

Congrats to Texas which gained the most people and Idaho which had the highest percentage growth. More is better.

I'm not too familiar with Texas but I've spent plenty of time in Idaho. Which it's always seemed like a nice and relaxing place. Lots of outdoor recreation, lower cost of goods, good job market, and they have some cool tech companies like Micron. Apparently their population growth wasn't quite enough to give them an extra electoral point.

I guess California and New York shrunk a little bit but hopefully it's just a short-term phenomena.

[Rasulis]

Congrats to Texas which gained the most people and Idaho which had the highest percentage growth. More is better.

I'm not too familiar with Texas but I've spent plenty of time in Idaho. Which it's always seemed like a nice and relaxing place. Lots of outdoor recreation, lower cost of goods, good job market, and they have some cool tech companies like Micron. Apparently their population growth wasn't quite enough to give them an extra electoral point.

I guess California and New York shrunk a little bit but hopefully it's just a short-term phenomena.

CA gained (2.3M). Just not as fast as TX (4M). Illinois, Mississippi and West Virginia are the only three states with actual population decline.

[Draco-Onis]

Yeah I was thinking the same thing, though I don't know what procedures there are for 'Do-overs' in this case.

yea it would be more accurate to do the census when things are back to normal post pandemic but it's highly unlikely due to constitution.

[PC2]

CA gained (2.3M). Just not as fast as TX (4M). Illinois, Mississippi and West Virginia are the only three states with actual population decline.

Okay, from 2010. I thought I read that NY and CA were down 50k-150k people compared to 2019 because of recent setbacks. I'm sure eventually they'll get up to 9 million for New York, 45 million for California but they might still lose an electoral vote or HoR seat if it's not fast enough compared to the other states.

[jonnysensible]

this seems incredibly bad for democrats

[Shadowferal]

this seems incredibly bad for democrats

Perspective.
If dems are moving to red states, they're not likely to vote red.

[kaid]

Perspective.
If dems are moving to red states, they're not likely to vote red.

Given the red state gerrymandering it basically means they just get disinfranchised for non state wide races. But honestly it is less bad than feared. TX and FL both probably should have picked up another seat each and NY and MN could easily have lost another seat each.

[Edge-]

Perspective.
If dems are moving to red states, they're not likely to vote red.

If they weren't so partisanly gerrymandered, sure. I wouldn't be surprised if one or two go to Democrats, but I doubt most will. Without non-partisan/bi-partisan committees drawing lines, it's far too easy to simply rig it so Republicans get an extra seat. Especially since they're getting 2020 voting data so they can see where these voters went.

[Shadowferal]

Now now...red states have gone purple. Dems have can allow themselves to be at least a tad cautiously optimistic.

[PACOX]

Floridaman grows stronger.

[Edge-]

Now now...red states have gone purple. Dems have can allow themselves to be at least a tad cautiously optimistic.

This isn't really an accurate reflection of the state-level politics dude. GA voted for Biden and sent two Democratic Senators to DC, but the state is controlled by Republicans in the governor's mansion, with a 34:22 edge in the Senate, and a 103:76 edge in the House.

[cubby]

Frankly the 2020 census was a complete clusterfuck due to virus on top of Trump's shenanigans, it's most likely the most inaccurate census in modern times.

This is a good point, and I will be the first to admit that I do not know the interworkings of how a Census is finalized, but I'm betting that long-time government honchos are in charge of it, and those people typically aren't driven by partisanship. So hopefully, while it was full of shenanigans, it came out at least mildly accurate. Which is about the most we can hope for after four years of the Deplorable-in-Chief.

[Crissi]

This is a good point, and I will be the first to admit that I do not know the interworkings of how a Census is finalized, but I'm betting that long-time government honchos are in charge of it, and those people typically aren't driven by partisanship. So hopefully, while it was full of shenanigans, it came out at least mildly accurate. Which is about the most we can hope for after four years of the Deplorable-in-Chief.

Had a chance to see the head honcho for the census bureau in 2015 lecture at a conference. Those guys take it VERY seriously and will not tolerate partisan bullshit, which is why the stupid citizen question got so much pushback.

[Blur4stuff]

Not too different from what we're used to. Deck is still stacked in republican's favor at every level, of course. But, a census wasn't going to fix that problem.

[cubby]

Not too different from what we're used to. Deck is still stacked in republican's favor at every level, of course. But, a census wasn't going to fix that problem.

Those rural controlled state legislatures are going to be tough to beat. They still hold the keys to their state's kingdoms, and therefore the voting rules. And Stalin was right - it's who votes, but who counts the votes that matters.

[Low Hanging Fruit]

Texas is going to be interesting. They have gerrymandered the seats they have to such insanity that I am not sure adding two more seats is going to be an actual +2 for the Republicans. I get the feeling one is going to just have to be given up to a major city or else how they have done it will chop up their rural hope to much and probably make all the districts a lot more competitive.