China announces 3-child policy in response to demographic concerns.

[Corvus]

Just six years after scrapping the 1-child policy in favour of a 2-child policy, the CCP has announced they are now instituting a 3-child policy, right on the tail of the recent census which didn't provide good news.

The once a decade census had been delayed in being released for a couple of months, and even if it wasn't amended, the numbers showed that China was aging much faster than expected, with fertility down to just 1.3 children per women and acknowledgement of a major gender imbalance.

So in response the CCP has just announced that they are changing to a 3-child policy, despite the change to the 2-child policy not making much of an impact. The issue isn't about desire for kids, but cost of living - as someone said, one couple supporting 4 grandparents and 3 children isn't feasible.

[Tazkar]

Fucking hilarious. They’ve been having “demographic concerns” for decades and STILL think setting limits on number of kids is the way to go. Slow as snail shit.

I mean I can understand the original 1 Kid policy due to the enormous population China has. Though it ran into the massive problem of how China Culturally views Men vs Women when having kids. Not to mention some other implementation issues that I can't recall the specifics of off the top of my head.

[PC2]

They never should have had a child limit in the first place. It was a mistake that did not achieve anything good. Now all they need to do is get rid of the child limit altogether. Overpopulation isn't a real problem.

[Rasulis]

China's Census Data Show Country's Birthrate Is Dropping

China's Birthrate Drops, As Census Data Warn Of Aging Population

Will the 3-child policy work?

Probably not.

This article from World Economic Forum explains the reason clearly.

Women in China contribute more to GDP than in the US. Viewing them as 'leftover' is problematic

During Mao’s Cultural Revolution of the 1960s and 1970s, China’s female employment rate became one of the highest in the world, as women became “sexless comrades”, labouring shoulder-to-shoulder with men. It was hardly a glamorous promotion but it did, for the first time ever, put many women on the same level as men.

The one-child policy implemented under Deng Xiaoping was the second reason for women’s rise, though again this wasn’t precisely a feminist policy. Boys were preferred to girls as the only child, especially in rural areas, leading to tens of thousands of infanticides per year. But the girls who were accepted did not have to compete with brothers for resources and attention and were able to blaze a trail that previous generations of women could not.

The result is that, as in many other countries around the world, girls started outperforming boys in school: today, almost 53% of the top-scoring students across China’s 31 provincial-level regions are female, according to Lake’s book, and Chinese women have been the dominant gender in colleges for several years.

The number of female graduates in university might be even higher were it not for the discriminatory practices implemented by many (top) universities: women often need to score higher grades than men to gain admission.

Crucially, this female “dividend” now plays out in the economy. Dr Kaiping Peng, a psychology professor at Tsinghua University, estimates that some 70% of the local employees of international corporations in Shanghai’s Pudong or Beijing’s Central Business District are young Chinese women. It is only anecdotal evidence but those of us who have been there, myself included, are likely to nod in agreement with that estimate.

On aggregate, women now contribute some 41% to China’s GDP, a higher percentage than in most other regions, including North America. On the production side, they represent the best of China’s brain power and are propelling their country to new growth. On the consumption side, they buy millions of articles on Taobao and turned Alibaba’s Singles’ Day into the world’s most valuable day for retailers.

But here’s the catch: the rest of the country hasn’t quite caught up, Lake writes. While the economic realities of China have changed, often thanks to this new generation of women, the cultural expectations of Chinese society, by and large, have, for these women, remained the same. Getting a great education and finding an upper-middle-class job is all well and good but, once they hit 25, Chinese women are expected to marry and live the Chinese equivalent of Sois belle et tais toi.

Leta Hong Fincher, who is credited with coining the English term “Leftover women”, asserts that the leaders of modern-day China still reduce women to their roles of reproductive tools for the state, dutiful wives, mothers and baby breeders in the home. As for men, their function is still that of the main breadwinner. Therefore, to make a wedding worthwhile, a woman best marry someone who is wealthier, better educated and more accomplished; in short, she should marry up.

But most sons in rural China did not pursue an education, stayed behind in the village to look after the estate, and were more likely to miss the economic miracle. They come up short on the expectations of “a house, a car and cash”, not to mention a university degree. They often end up staying single or marrying “imported” brides from Cambodia and other countries in South-East Asia.

As for the urban, educated women, they face a Catch 22 too: they’re expected to marry up and to marry young, but live in cities in which the average man is less educated and less wealthy than their parents’ expectations. After 23 years or so of pursuing education, they want to give their own career a go too. Therefore, despite the general shortage of women, 7 million of those who are young and urban will not get married. For some it’s a cause for concern because of unfulfilled societal pressures; for others, it’s empowering.

[Kaleredar]

Not to be too blunt but I don't imagine them interning and sterilizing certain segments of their population is overall productive to their "we want a larger and younger population" focus, among the vast array of other ethical and humanitarian issues it brings up.

[Rasulis]

Some more interesting numbers.

Share of global female workers in digital technology.



In China.



Your typical professional Chinese women's view on marriage.



How ambitious are professional Chinese women? Much more than their US counterpart.



Short of beating the women back into the kitchen, the CCP is in a lot of trouble.

[Corvus]

Short of beating the women back into the kitchen, the CCP is in a lot of trouble.

Hadn't seen those numbers, but they are bad. I wonder how long until the CCP goes full on Handmaiden's Tale and starts forced breeding programs. Because that is the only way they can turn around numbers like that.

[Cringefest]

Hadn't seen those numbers, but they are bad. I wonder how long until the CCP goes full on Handmaiden's Tale and starts forced breeding programs. Because that is the only way they can turn around numbers like that.

In Western Europe we've had those numbers and even lower numbers for a while. It's definitely a problem but we didn't go mad yet. Isn't this just a normal occurrence when quality of life improves?

- - - Updated - - -

Short of beating the women back into the kitchen, the CCP is in a lot of trouble.

Well it really depends from the policies they implement. If they manage to work a way for child bearing to not be an absolute burden to your career as it is here in the west, they might be able to tackle this.

[Yadryonych]

Why dont remove any stupid limitations at all. Not like everyone is going to breed like rabbits, even if one family decides to have 9 there would surely be 2 families with none

[Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang]

In Western Europe we've had those numbers and even lower numbers for a while. It's definitely a problem but we didn't go mad yet. Isn't this just a normal occurrence when quality of life improves?

Well it really depends from the policies they implement. If they manage to work a way for child bearing to not be an absolute burden to your career as it is here in the west, they might be able to tackle this.

Not exactly, while we've had lowish numbers in Europe in some countries (1.5-1.8), it was a much more gradual thing and those at the lowest end of the spectrum similar to China's current situation (<1.3), have been through a disastrous economic slump for now more than a decade, in contrast to China's booming economy.

Also a big differences is that the main limiting cap to fertility in Europe has been shown to be economic : studies have shown that people on average wish they'd be able to afford more children, with a significant portion of the youth that deserted the periphery ending up having more children after moving in the economically dynamic areas than their peer that stayed in their country of origin, somewhat contrary to China where the economically dynamic urban centers are more of a hellscape when it comes to raising children.

On the extreme weight of women in China's workforce, it does not surprise me as it has been observed that in traditionally "Macho" countries, notably in North Africa, young women are vastly outperforming men in academical fields, and are essentially pushed towards engineering and similar traditionally well-paying and prestigious men-dominated fields with an economic prime motivation. On the contrary, in the North European countries which made the most progress toward valuing women in the workforce, it has been observed that a larger proportion favor traditionally women-dominated jobs compared to their Southern neighbors.

China's issue is the result of several factors compounding themselves, even moreso than observed in other Confucian countries like Japan or South Korea:
-cultural and economic extreme gap between cities and countryside (everything happens in the City, an extremely expensive place to raise children)
-academically focused culture (further raising the price of raising children and raising the match-making stakes)
-men-favoring tradition (boys having it easy, girls being ruthlessly pushed, resulting in women expected to marry up unable to find a match)
-single child policy cranking up everything above 9000

[Draco-Onis]

Not to be too blunt but I don't imagine them interning and sterilizing certain segments of their population is overall productive to their "we want a larger and younger population" focus, among the vast array of other ethical and humanitarian issues it brings up.

They want a certain type of population to breed obviously but as many posters have said too little too late. The CCP has created cultural and structural changes that make it near impossible for women to want to have more children.

[Cringefest]

Not exactly, while we've had lowish numbers in Europe in some countries (1.5-1.8), it was a much more gradual thing and those at the lowest end of the spectrum similar to China's current situation (<1.3), have been through a disastrous economic slump for now more than a decade, in contrast to China's booming economy.

Also a big differences is that the main limiting cap to fertility in Europe has been shown to be economic : studies have shown that people on average wish they'd be able to afford more children, with a significant portion of the youth that deserted the periphery ending up having more children after moving in the economically dynamic areas than their peer that stayed in their country of origin, somewhat contrary to China where the economically dynamic urban centers are more of a hellscape when it comes to raising children.

On the extreme weight of women in China's workforce, it does not surprise me as it has been observed that in traditionally "Macho" countries, notably in North Africa, young women are vastly outperforming men in academical fields, and are essentially pushed towards engineering and similar traditionally well-paying and prestigious men-dominated fields with an economic prime motivation. On the contrary, in the North European countries which made the most progress toward valuing women in the workforce, it has been observed that a larger proportion favor traditionally women-dominated jobs compared to their Southern neighbors.

China's issue is the result of several factors compounding themselves, even moreso than observed in other Confucian countries like Japan or South Korea:
-cultural and economic extreme gap between cities and countryside (everything happens in the City, an extremely expensive place to raise children)
-academically focused culture (further raising the price of raising children and raising the match-making stakes)
-men-favoring tradition (boys having it easy, girls being ruthlessly pushed, resulting in women expected to marry up unable to find a match)
-single child policy cranking up everything above 9000

Good points. Just a few details I want to point out, China's replacement rate is currently sitting a little short of 1.7 I think. I think only Ireland and France have those numbers in Europe, the rest sitting between 1.3 and 1.5. Details but it also helps to consider the fact that the rate has gone up by 0.20% or so in China each year, the past 2 years.
I have a feeling that China's fertility rate strictly linked to the loosening of their policies. Also speaking of policies, China has the economic and social flexibility (isn't it ironic) to allow for changes aimed directly at increasing the replacement rate.
Let me explain. Due to the drop in purchasing power of the middle class in the west, a child is literally not a viable option for many in several Western countries. Two incomes families have gone from being optional to being a necessity for many. I agree that China is suffering from a similar issue, but they can address it as they aren't as tied up to "the Market" as we are over here.

[Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang]

Good points. Just a few details I want to point out, China's replacement rate is currently sitting a little short of 1.7 I think. I think only Ireland and France have those numbers in Europe, the rest sitting between 1.3 and 1.5. Details but it also helps to consider the fact that the rate has gone up by 0.20% or so in China each year, the past 2 years.
I have a feeling that China's fertility rate strictly linked to the loosening of their policies. Also speaking of policies, China has the economic and social flexibility (isn't it ironic) to allow for changes aimed directly at increasing the replacement rate.
Let me explain. Due to the drop in purchasing power of the middle class in the west, a child is literally not a viable option for many in several Western countries. Two incomes families have gone from being optional to being a necessity for many. I agree that China is suffering from a similar issue, but they can address it as they aren't as tied up to "the Market" as we are over here.

That 1.7 figure is outdated (if it wasn't a figment of past poor/altered statistics).

The very latest, very official figures gives 1.3 according to their 7th census:

Global Times : China’s fertility rate may become ‘world’s lowest’ without strong intervention policy, India may overtake China by 2023: demographers

China recorded 12 million births in 2020, marking a drop for the fourth consecutive year, while some Chinese demographers warned that China’s number of newborns is likely to drop to below 10 million in a few years, and if no forceful intervention policy is introduced, China’s fertility rate may become the lowest in the world.

The number of newborns in China in 2020 was down from 14.65 million in 2019, and China’s total fertility rate of women of childbearing age was 1.3, a relatively low level, according to the results of the seventh national population census released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday.

The continued low birth level would allow India to soon replace China as the world's most populous country in 2023 or 2024, Chinese demographers said.

Liang Jianzhang, an economics professor at Peking University, told the Global Times that China’s fertility rate will continue to drop in the coming years, and may become the world’s lowest.

“According to the existing data, in the next 10 years, the number of women aged 22 to 35, which is the childbearing period, will drop by more than 30 percent compared with the present data. Without strong policy intervention, China’s new-born population is likely to fall below 10 million in the next few years, and its fertility rate will be lower than Japan’s, perhaps the lowest in the world,” Liang predicted.

According to the World Bank, the birth rate of South Korea, Japan, US, and EU in 2018 was 0.98, 1.42, 1.73, and 1.6 respectively.

He Yafu, an independent demographer, told the Global Times on Tuesday that the total fertility rate of 1.3 contains the disappearing effect of the second-child policy China introduced in 2016, and leaving out the effect, the total fertility rate could only stand at around 1.1.

Also from Global Times : Is China's birth rate low enough to cause population crisis?



That diagram on the lower left might explain why they're busy roughing up the Uyghur and other minorities.

Also do note that those are the very latest official figures. Real figures might be worse, add in that due to gender imbalance and infant mortality, China's required replacement rate would be higher than 2.1.

[Mihalik]

This fixes nothing.

Despite the "communist China" bullshit, their deeply sexist culture combined with the hyper capitalist dog eat dog nature of their economy will keep birthrates low.

[Blur4stuff]

Having children is an enormous sacrifice for decades at the very least. There's absolutely no guarantee it will work out great, either. Odds are it won't be worth it. Sure, your kids may turn out okay and maybe in the end you'll feel like it was worth it. But the chances of that happening are a lot lower than the alternatives.

It's no secret at this point that your life will likely be a happier one using your time and money on yourself and your partner if you even want to have one. If you feel some kind of moral obligation to society then there are plenty of programs to volunteer for that help youth in one way or another. No need to create your own.

This is only going to get worse. Radical changes are needed and I don't see them happening anytime soon.

[cors8]

I think Chinese commentators said it best. Paraphrasing: "Who the fuck has time for relationships and kids when we're forced to work from 9 AM to 9 PM 6 days a week?"

[PC2]

This fixes nothing.

It fixes everything for the couples who have 2 kids but want 1 more.

Despite the "communist China" bullshit, their deeply sexist culture combined with the hyper capitalist dog eat dog nature of their economy will keep birthrates low.

Even though that is true this issue is primarily a cultural issue and not a resource scarcity issue. Where there is human will to create more there is always a way.

[uuuhname]

This fixes nothing.

Despite the "communist China" bullshit, their deeply sexist culture combined with the hyper capitalist dog eat dog nature of their economy will keep birthrates low.

pretty much the same thing happening in Japan, I can't imagine south Korea is a whole lot better that regard either.

[Rasulis]

The 1.7 is from 2019. It dropped to 1.3 in 2020 driven by the largest population centers. Beijing, with population of 21 million (40% that of CA), experienced 24.9% drop in birth rate in 2020 when compared to 2019. The precipitous drop in 2020 may just be an anomaly due to Covid-19. We shall see.

[KOUNTERPARTS]

How progressive of the CCP! Maybe one day they'll move to not having a limit.