Global warming may have already passed irreversible tipping point

[Masark]

This could be once in a lifetime event.

So, going by this generation's experience with "one in a lifetime disasters", we can expect it to become an annual occurrence?

[Rasulis]

So, going by this generation's experience with "one in a lifetime disasters", we can expect it to become an annual occurrence?

Maybe more often. Definitely not an annual occurrence.

The path for a tropical storm to make landfall in California is very narrow. Due to westward trade winds, hurricanes in the Pacific rarely head eastward, unless recurved by a trough. This year we have such a trough. Created by a clockwise spinning massive high-pressure ridge (the heat dome over Southern and Middle US) and a smaller low pressure spinning counterclockwise of the coast of California.

Even then, the chances of a hurricane making landfall in California is still pretty slim. The path over the ocean extends through 60F water. Better known as hurricane killer. The landside path is mountainous which will quickly reduce the hurricane strength.

Hillary is already down to Cat 3 from Cat 4 as soon as entered the water off Baja which is about 70F. The water will get colder as it tracks northeasterly toward California. It should be down to tropical storm by the time it is in California.

Most of the damage will come from flooding. The hurricane is front loaded with the water vapor extending far ahead of the eye. Hillary is still 300 miles from California and the desert is already seeing some rain. The worst flooding will in Palm Springs, Las Vegas, Phoenix, etc.

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Downgraded to Cat 2. Rapidly losing strength and the eye is getting ragged.

Our old home in Palomar Mountain east side of San Diego County could get 10 inches of rain.

Our management company cancelled next 2 weeks bookings for our Catalina vacation rental. The island is being evacuated.

It is the start of harvest season for pistachio, almond and corn in San Joaquin. Grapes, spinach and tomatoes which are ripening are also vulnerable.

[Kathranis]

Glad to see it weaken so rapidly but even a tropical storm can bring flash flooding and California isn't really equipped for that, so I hope people don't underestimate the danger.

[Rasulis]

Downgraded to tropical storm. It is massive. It is still more than 200 miles south of the US border, and the outer band which carries the most water moisture is causing flash floods in Ocotillo, Coachella, Imperial County and Dead Valley. The moisture laden air encountered the mountains, and turned into rain which ran down into the desert communities. Also, floodings in parts of Los Angeles, the Grapevine and Santa Clarita Valley south of the Grapevine.

Hillary hitting Baja, Mexico below.

[Edge-]

I'll have to check with some coworkers down in SoCal tomorrow, but it sounds like even with it reducing in severity it's still causing some major issues.

But hey, I guess more water for California (even if it's SoCal and Baja) which isn't the worst thing ever.

[Biglog]

There are quite a few people that live far out in very rural areas in the desert, off-the-grid and far from others. More trailers and mobile homes like that than you'd think. I could see quite a few of them getting caught up in this flooding and maybe landslides, especially if they didn't get weather alerts. It seems like one of those disasters where it's so widespread and affecting a lot of rural areas where it's going to take quite a while to assess the full impact.

[Rasulis]

In summary, “it could have been a lot worse.” Traversing the cold water and mountainous region of Baja depleted the storm of so much energy, it reached California as a tropical depression. Wind damage was minimal.

It still brought a lot of moisture from the Gulf of California. However, it was moving fast (23 - 25 mph). Which limited the duration of the rainfall. Lots of flash floods. However, I am not aware of any major flood damage. More heavy rain with some heavy wind through the end of the week.

In the end, quibble aside, "no tropical storm even made landfall in California since 1939" still hold true.

[Tuor]

Another heat wave, its so hot i can't even have the computer on.

One day gone, two more days to go, i really hope its the last one of this year.

[Rasulis]

Washington State Dept. of Natural Resources
@waDNR
Can't believe we have to say this, but: STOP FLYING DRONES NEAR WILDFIRES. DRONES GROUND OUR AIRCRAFT.

Our firefighting operations are more important than those 12 likes you'll get on Instagram.

People's priorities are so messed up these days.

[Edge-]

That account is always fucking great, whoever runs it is amazing.

But also, yeah seriously what the fuck people. I will never understand that shit. There's fuckin wildfires, stay the fuck away and let the professionals work to contain it.

People permanently lacking self awareness with severe main-character syndrome and shit just ruining everything.

[Rasulis]

Heat domes usually last days or even weeks. The giant heat dome in South Central US been there since the end of June/early July. It is not weakening. In fact it is getting stronger and larger. There is no indication that it will start weakening soon. A passing low front may push it down to the south giving the Midwest a break next week. However, not enough to weaken it. The South will bake even more.

If there is such a thing as a silver lining in a situation like this, it also inhibits the development of high-pressure ridge in the “Greater Basin” (California desert region + Nevada + Utah). Those are the main ingredient for California Santa Ana and Diablo winds. No high pressure domes. No winds.

[Shadowferal]

Most Texas prisons lack air conditioning. At least 41 prisoners have died of heart-related or undetermined causes since the unrelenting heat wave began.

[JohnTheDoe]

At least Starfield will release before humanity ends.

[Rasulis]

Most Texas prisons lack air conditioning. At least 41 prisoners have died of heart-related or undetermined causes since the unrelenting heat wave began.

Hell. Most US schools don't have A.C. The HVAC systems of many with A.C. are old and outdated, and not designed to mitigate 100F plus heat.

[Edge-]

Hell. Most US schools don't have A.C. The HVAC systems of many with A.C. are old and outdated, and not designed to mitigate 100F plus heat.

Gonna be interesting seeing "heat days" in some parts of the US like they have snow days.

[Rasulis]

Gonna be interesting seeing "heat days" in some parts of the US like they have snow days.

Kansas City Public Schools sends students home early because of the ‘intense heat wave’

Kansas is not the only state. Parents are scrambling trying to find last minute childcare.

[Rasulis]

Newest US Drought Monitor. Remarkable turnaround for California. A year ago, 99.76% of California was under various levels drought conditions. Now only 1.38% of California is experiencing moderate or worse drought. Went to a wedding in Fresno early August, and all the agricultural ponds and basins that we saw along the way were full. It is my understanding that farmers in Central Valley have not used any groundwater for agricultural purposes this year.



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Wildfires force southwestern Louisiana town to evacuate amid extreme drought

A southwestern Louisiana town is under mandatory evacuation Thursday due to wildfires in the area as the state deals with extreme heat and a statewide burn ban.

The evacuation order for Merryville was issued by the Beauregard Parish Sheriff’s Office Thursday evening, saying the fire could reach the town limits within hours, according to Louisiana State Police.

Merryville has a population of about 1,200 people, sheriff’s office spokesperson Shannon Burgess told CNN. The town is located just east of the state border with Texas, about 120 miles northeast of Houston.

Earlier this week there were almost 350 wildfires burning in the state, according to Mike Steele, communications director at the Louisiana Governor’s Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness. Every parish in the state is under a red flag warning, according to the National Weather Service.

“This time, this year obviously we’re dealing with a different type of weather situation that requires everybody to be aware of the burn ban and to do their part to reduce the likelihood that we would have anything that could potentially start a fire,” the office’s director, Casey Tingle, said in a news conference Wednesday.

Tingle says they’re stretching their resources thin as Louisiana has been under a burn ban since August 7.

“When it comes to this time of year, typically, we’re talking about hurricanes, tropical storms, rain, flooding that sort of thing,” Tingle said, “Our public is very attuned to those type of messages and always does a great job of helping us as a state respond and recover from those events when they happen.”

“We desperately need everyone’s help in adhering to this (burn ban) order,” he said.

More than 10,000 acres have burned in Beauregard Parish from wildfires as of Wednesday afternoon, according to Tingle.

And there’s no relief in sight: The upcoming forecast for the area and the state is expected to be dry and hot, Tingle added.

State Fire Marshal Deputy Chief Felicia Cooper also said: “This situation is dangerous for every single one of us.”

The area of Beauregard Parish experiencing the wildfires is in severe to extreme drought. Around 77% of the state is experiencing some level of drought, which is up from 7% of the state just three months ago, according to CNN Weather.

Lake Charles, around 40 miles southeast of Merryville, has seen temperatures over 100 degrees every day since August 18 and temperatures over 95 degrees since June 29.

“Our state has never been this hot and dry and we have never had this many fires,” Louisiana Gov. John Bel Elwards posted on social media Thursday. “We need you and your neighbors to help keep our communities and first responders safe. Adhere to the statewide burn ban. Don’t burn anything.”

[Tuor]

Another heat wave, its so hot i can't even have the computer on.

One day gone, two more days to go, i really hope its the last one of this year.

Finally the heat wave is over, damn... This was one was hard, max temp of 42ºC .

[Rasulis]

Two low pressures developing which should give the Midwest a break. However, they'll push the heat dome south. Placing the hottest portion of the dome on top of the southern states. Next week will be very hot in the south.

Considering Texas and Louisianna are already fighting hundreds of wildfires, it could be disastrous. A couple of parishes are under mandatory evacuation orders in Lousianna.

Power is also a consideration. Especially for Texas which is separate from the rest of the US. So far Texas has managed to meet record breaking energy demands with major contributions from its solar and wind powers. With the heat dome directly over Texas, hot air will sink, and the wind will grind to a halt. Reduced wind power is anticipated next week. A heat wave without wind is a major problem for Texas.

[Elder Millennial]

Another Utopian (clean energy) city may be in the works — this one actually looks plausible.

Flannery Associates' Ambitious Vision: Creating a Sustainable Utopian City in Northern California

Then they'll build a whole bunch of single family houses, slap some solar panels and wind turbines on top, "re-invent" public transportation with some weird maglev pods that can only carry 4 passengers from point A to B (connecting the office complex of Apple to the office complex of Google) and the rest of the population will have to buy and drive Teslas as the city "corporation" will pass legislation that specifically only permits the ownership and use of electric vehicles...which happen to have the exact specifications of a Tesla.

They'll get a 40 billion tax break from California for it, another 20 billion from the Federal government and then will start an endless legal battle over water rights with alfalfa or whatnot farming corporations.