if China invades Taiwan, what do they lose or risk?

[YUPPIE]

as it's been pointed out before, it's an inevitability, but people are assured it's not very soon.

As a Chinese diplomat said once, the US nuking China over Taiwan would mean a retaliatory nuke and the world ends. The odds of nukes are so low I think we can rule that out.

But still, do they have much else economically or diplomatically to lose from eventually attacking Taiwan in an attempt to seize it through conventional means? I don't think time really matters in regards to the "when"

[Calfredd]

Knew this was going to be a Tsugunai thread.

[Cthulhu 2020]

They risk basically nothing, because the US nor EU will do more than give them a slap on the wrist. US has been fairly limp wristed on foreign policy since Bush Jr. Aside from the middle east of course.

[Draco-Onis]

The risks is not worth the reward besides having Taiwan as propaganda tool is better. If things really got bad in China though that would change the equation because then it would be a good distraction but right now it's just all talk.

[kaid]

They risk basically nothing, because the US nor EU will do more than give them a slap on the wrist. US has been fairly limp wristed on foreign policy since Bush Jr. Aside from the middle east of course.

While the US involvement is questionable most of the regional powers are very much against china taking Taiwan because it basically locks off a huge chunk of the shipping lanes in the area and puts them fully in china territorial waters.

Japan would almost forced to come to their aid and while their military is not huge they have the tech and the ability to produce it fast if they feel they need to. Also the problem for china taking Taiwan is due to how the beaches are there are very short windows where any kind of amphibious assault could even happen and China does not currently have enough capacity to land enough troops to matter in that window. Could they bomb the crap out of Taiwan sure but that does not reclaim it for them and serves to piss off a lot of major powers.

Also china has some very major cities in close range to Taiwan so they could pretty easily retaliate if china decides to just bomb them.

I find economic actions probably are more likely ways china tries to force Taiwan to rejoin but after seeing what happened in hong kong it kinda stripped any illusions to how that would work for those currently in power in Taiwan so it is not very appealing.

[Mihalik]

The risks is not worth the reward besides having Taiwan as propaganda tool is better. If things really got bad in China though that would change the equation because then it would be a good distraction but right now it's just all talk.

This. Pretty much it.

Also, starting external wars to prop up your own power base....it's risky business, might just backfire if it's too costly, even if you end up "winning". Any attempt to invade Taiwan...will be bloody and expensive for the invader.

The relative success of Russia with Ukraine created a somewhat bad example. Tho worth noting, the Russian territorial acquisitions in Ukraine were relatively minimal. Taking over a whole country....that's a lot harder. Also...the medium to long term repercussions of the Russian invasion of Ukraine is still yet to play out.

[Themius]

The risks is not worth the reward besides having Taiwan as propaganda tool is better. If things really got bad in China though that would change the equation because then it would be a good distraction but right now it's just all talk.

I'm honestly at a loss as to whom Taiwan is a propaganda tool for. The idea that Taiwan is part of China is just based on the fact it was and there was a war... and the were mostly in Taiwan. The USA for a while said Taiwan was real China... then eventually accepted that well... China was China.

One side says China has control over Taiwan the other says China is an illegally occupying mainland China and Taiwan is really all of China by rights. Mainland China says Taiwan is part of it because they lost the civil war, which is fair if you look at American history. And Taiwans official stance I believe is like I mentioned before, that the PRC is illegally occupying mainland China.

The most I talk about it, the sillier it seems.

[Mihalik]

I'm honestly at a loss as to whom Taiwan is a propaganda tool for. The idea that Taiwan is part of China is just based on the fact it was and there was a war... and the were mostly in Taiwan. The USA for a while said Taiwan was real China... then eventually accepted that well... China was China.

One side says China has control over Taiwan the other says China is an illegally occupying mainland China and Taiwan is really all of China by rights. Mainland China says Taiwan is part of it because they lost the civil war, which is fair if you look at American history. And Taiwans official stance I believe is like I mentioned before, that the PRC is illegally occupying mainland China.

The most I talk about it, the sillier it seems.

I'm about 99.99% certain that behind closed doors Taiwan has offered mutual recognition to China decades ago. The only reason why they are still holding onto the notion that the PRC is illegitimate is because a unilateral recognition of the PRC would strengthen the PRC's claim to Taiwan as a wayward province.

Really at any given time China could just say -OK. We'll let you guys be your own country, allowed to sign your own treaties and all the shizzle, but you have to accept you aren't "China" anymore, and Taiwan would take that deal in a heartbeat.

But nowadays China seems to increasingly think that everything on its borders is China...They are not in the business of territorial concessions.

[D Luniz]

look at Georgia and Ukraine
what did Russia lose?

there is your answer

[Shalcker]

USA will probably blow up modern FOBs there.

Then everyone - with possible exception of "Western world" - will accept the long coming outcome.

[draynay]

As I respond to seemingly all of your threads

"But, why?"

Why would China want to do this?

[uuuhname]

lol, none at all. we are seeing the dawn of a new cold war ere between China and the US but this time it's one empire that's collapsing under it's own weight and one that so far at least has not been a fraction as ready to exercise obvious imperialist control over the region it's in. it'll be interesting to see in a decade or if the US's de facto empire crumbles and see what the chinse response to that will be.

[YUPPIE]

As I respond to seemingly all of your threads

"But, why?"

Why would China want to do this?

power and desperation from Jinping to safely secure his authority. Lately, the tensions are at an all-time high and Taiwan officially pledged its independence yesterday to mock Jinping.

The CCP keeps sending fighter jets to fly around their air space to intimidate but haven't done anything yet.

If there are no consequences as people claim, why not just get it over with and do what they did to Hong Kong already

[Logwyn]

power and desperation from Jinping to safely secure his authority. Lately, the tensions are at an all-time high and Taiwan officially pledged its independence yesterday to mock Jinping.

The CCP keeps sending fighter jets to fly around their air space to intimidate but haven't done anything yet.

If there are no consequences as people claim, why not just get it over with and do what they did to Hong Kong already

Hong Kong and Taiwan are very different situations. Almost apples and oranges.

[tehdang]

as it's been pointed out before, it's an inevitability, but people are assured it's not very soon.

As a Chinese diplomat said once, the US nuking China over Taiwan would mean a retaliatory nuke and the world ends. The odds of nukes are so low I think we can rule that out.

But still, do they have much else economically or diplomatically to lose from eventually attacking Taiwan in an attempt to seize it through conventional means? I don't think time really matters in regards to the "when"

Honestly, they invade and occupy and eventually the world gets used to One China in fact instead of political fiction. See Crimea.

China hasn’t invaded yet, perhaps still uncertain if their actions bring on a nuclear exchange. If the US nuclear umbrella doesn’t include Taiwan, does it include Japan? Australia?

[Kokolums]

Obviously, Russia is building a huge army and sitting on the doorstep to Europe. Likewise, China is eyeing Taiwan.

To understand what is going on, you need to look at WW1, WW2 and the future WW3 as a series of events.

In WW1, Germany blitzed a chunk of northern France and captured that to open WW1. Then WW1 bogged down into trench warfare that eventually resulted in Germany getting driven back and losing.

In WW2, Nazi Germany corrected their mistake. They blitzed ALL of Europe all the way to Paris to open WW2. Then it got bogged down in a fight with the UK. Eventually, the US came in and swept across Europe.

WW3 is about correcting the mistake from WW2. Russia and China are ready to invade regions. But they need to solve the America problem FIRST or you wind up with WW2 again. The USA is suffering from heavy internal political struggles. So Russia and China are waiting for the USA to collapse into civil war which takes the US off the board. THEN Russia will blitz across europe all the way to Paris and London, while China blitzes across the south pacific including Taiwan, probably Australia as well, etc.

Its all about a progression of war strategy and fixing prior mistakes. Although a big part of the problem is that Europe foolishly dumped resources into social programs and not their military, relying on the US to defend them. Once the US is taken off the board, Europe is screwed. Europes children will speak Russian.

[muto]

Obviously, Russia is building a huge army and sitting on the doorstep to Europe. Likewise, China is eyeing Taiwan.

To understand what is going on, you need to look at WW1, WW2 and the future WW3 as a series of events.

In WW1, Germany blitzed a chunk of northern France and captured that to open WW1. Then WW1 bogged down into trench warfare that eventually resulted in Germany getting driven back and losing.

In WW2, Nazi Germany corrected their mistake. They blitzed ALL of Europe all the way to Paris to open WW2. Then it got bogged down in a fight with the UK. Eventually, the US came in and swept across Europe.

WW3 is about correcting the mistake from WW2. Russia and China are ready to invade regions. But they need to solve the America problem FIRST or you wind up with WW2 again. The USA is suffering from heavy internal political struggles. So Russia and China are waiting for the USA to collapse into civil war which takes the US off the board. THEN Russia will blitz across europe all the way to Paris and London, while China blitzes across the south pacific including Taiwan, probably Australia as well, etc.

Its all about a progression of war strategy and fixing prior mistakes. Although a big part of the problem is that Europe foolishly dumped resources into social programs and not their military, relying on the US to defend them. Once the US is taken off the board, Europe is screwed. Europes children will speak Russian.

That will literally never happen when nuclear bombs are in play. That’s ironically what’s keeping the peace. No one wants a nuke dropped on their forehead. You can also cripple a country more financially nowadays than you can by war through hacking, tariffs, embargos, and such.

[Azadina]

Obviously, Russia is building a huge army and sitting on the doorstep to Europe. Likewise, China is eyeing Taiwan.

To understand what is going on, you need to look at WW1, WW2 and the future WW3 as a series of events.

In WW1, Germany blitzed a chunk of northern France and captured that to open WW1. Then WW1 bogged down into trench warfare that eventually resulted in Germany getting driven back and losing.

In WW2, Nazi Germany corrected their mistake. They blitzed ALL of Europe all the way to Paris to open WW2. Then it got bogged down in a fight with the UK. Eventually, the US came in and swept across Europe.

WW3 is about correcting the mistake from WW2. Russia and China are ready to invade regions. But they need to solve the America problem FIRST or you wind up with WW2 again. The USA is suffering from heavy internal political struggles. So Russia and China are waiting for the USA to collapse into civil war which takes the US off the board. THEN Russia will blitz across europe all the way to Paris and London, while China blitzes across the south pacific including Taiwan, probably Australia as well, etc.

Its all about a progression of war strategy and fixing prior mistakes. Although a big part of the problem is that Europe foolishly dumped resources into social programs and not their military, relying on the US to defend them. Once the US is taken off the board, Europe is screwed. Europes children will speak Russian.

Your fanfiction never ceases to amaze. Just a small tip: it'd feel more believable and lively, if there was a shred of reality mixed in with the fiction, rather than full blown fiction.

[Yadryonych]

Your fanfiction never ceases to amaze. Just a small tip: it'd feel more believable and lively, if there was a shred of reality mixed in with the fiction, rather than full blown fiction.

And thus, a new Tom Clancy was born

[Xarkan]

And thus, a new Tom Clancy was born

I think... Tom Clancy made somewhat better fiction