Russian invasion of Ukraine

[YUPPIE]

Hey, it's not really hidden, but there's been a lot of news lately about Russian activity on Ukraine's border, an insider coup plot, and something about to happen on December 1-2. Putin also announced a grave warning against Western parties if they interfere. This is pretty abnormal aggression and not just flexing or posturing.

https://www.businessinsider.com/puti...r-west-2021-11
https://english.pravda.ru/news/russi...ian_submarine/

Russia may be preparing a coup in Ukraine on December 1 or 2 - president Zelenskyi said, quoting intelligence agencies reports. He said he has recordings of conversations between Ukrainian and Russian nationals where they discuss a possible support by oligarch Rinat Akhmetov

https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/sta...84442944200706

Update:

The coup plot alleged by President Volodymyr Zelensky today was being planned by an FSB officer and three defectors of Ukraine's Interior Ministry who are based in Crimea, according to sources close to the Ukrainian leader who spoke with me this morning.

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/st...68839697453063

There's a lot of skepticism about the nuclear war option, but considering the graveness of such an act, how will Joe Biden and his allies respond realistically?

Moderator Notes: The thread title has been changed in light of recent developments. Actual war commentary begins around this page.

Thread Warnings:

1) As a reminder, calling for and/or celebrating violence against civilians is still against forum rules. As is nation bashing and directly advocating for violent escalations for the sake of mutual destruction, death, etc.

2) When sharing details or videos of what's unfolding, please include a warning and provide a link for anything that can fall under violence/gore. Do not include highly graphic images or videos within the body of your post. This way people can still share important information without exposing unsuspecting or unwilling readers to distressing imagery.

Updated Explanations: 1

3) Do not derail the thread, especially by whataboutism. The thread is about the events unfolding in Ukraine.

[Calfredd]

When you know it's a Tsugunai thread before opening it up...

[Shalcker]

Here is better article on "What happens if Russia actually launches a full scale invasion"
LONG READ: Russia looks poised to invade Ukraine, but what would an invasion actually look like?

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The coup plot alleged by President Volodymyr Zelensky today was being planned by an FSB officer and three defectors of Ukraine's Interior Ministry who are based in Crimea, according to sources close to the Ukrainian leader who spoke with me this morning.

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/st...68839697453063

Note further in that thread he says:
The specifics of the coup plot remain a bit unclear because I didn't hear the full transcript or original audio. But what I heard did not sound like a meticulous and well-thought-out plan. It amounted to...
destabilizing Ukraine from within, exploiting current tensions between Kyiv and Moscow, Zelensky and Akhmetov. It was going to use a protest planned on Dec. 1 as cover. The idea appears to have been to bring Akhmetov people into the fold. But unclear whether that had happened.

There seems to be a lot of skepticism around his coup claims from those aware of internal Ukrainian situation.

There's a lot of skepticism about the nuclear war option, but considering the graveness of such an act, how will Joe Biden and his allies respond realistically?

Are you implying that coups could warrant nuclear response?

[YUPPIE]

Are you implying that coups could warrant nuclear response?

well you have to wonder you know? If Putin takes over Ukraine and dares the US to do something and we don't, that's gonna motivate China to assimilate Taiwan

[Biglog]

It's not just the US that has offered assistance for Ukraine. But clearly it's a major mismatch militarily without major help from the West. They could make it difficult, slow it down, and Russia would get more serious international sanctions/condemnation than with Crimea.

At the end of the day the issue is none of the big powers between China, Russia, or the US want a potentially hostile immediate neighbor. China with India and Taiwan for example. That is somewhat understandable, the US isn't crazy about a hostile Venezuela even in the region, and you can imagine the US reaction if Mexico or Canada wanted to join a Russian military alliance. So this really was set in motion when talk of Ukraine joining NATO began. That started in 94, Ukraine began the membership application process in 2008, and doubled-down on it in 2014. It's not coincidental that 2014 was when the conflict started. Russia rightly or wrongly has been treating Ukraine NATO membership like a line in the sand. Unfortunately I think things have progressed too far at this point that even if Ukraine wanted to back off on that Russia may not stop completely. And full NATO membership for Ukraine with short-range missiles there would probably be a Cuban missile crisis moment. So this is definitely heading for at least Russia expanding it's 'buffer zone' in Ukraine if not pushing further. The problem is that it's a catch-22 for the West much like Taiwan. Help and it may not stop an advance anyway and could easily ignite a much larger conflict, don't help and it allows German WW2 style hostile landgrabs while reinforcing the perception of Western governments promising help and not delivering.

[Shalcker]

well you have to wonder you know? If Putin takes over Ukraine and dares the US to do something and we don't, that's gonna motivate China to assimilate Taiwan

Are you implying that would warrant nuclear response? Because i kind of doubt that too.

It isn't likely to happen in immediate future either even if they would feel emboldened.

[YUPPIE]

Are you implying that would warrant nuclear response?

yes. by that point, yes.

But this upcoming month will be a huge deal

[Shalcker]

yes. by that point, yes.

But this upcoming month will be a huge deal

I'd put it as 94% "nothing will happen".
5% "Zelenski actually declares martial law (as his faction denied he planned to) that he will justify by coup concerns" then proceeds to wipe out opposition and their media outlets
0.9% "Actual Ukrainian coup happens"
0.1% "Russia actually attacks"

[YUPPIE]

I'd put it as 94% "nothing will happen".
5% "Zelenski actually declares martial law (as his faction denied he planned to) that he will justify by coup concerns" then proceeds to wipe out opposition and their media outlets
0.9% "Actual Ukrainian coup happens"
0.1% "Russia actually attacks"

i dont know why you doubt it so much. putin is one of the evilest people alive and has been desperate about ukraine's stance for a long time now.

[Shalcker]

i dont know why you doubt it so much. putin is one of the evilest people alive and has been desperate about ukraine's stance for a long time now.

Because NS2 is still not approved and going into Ukraine now would threaten that project - and having it approved will weaken Ukrainian position more then direct invasion would.

Maybe if you would say "We're adding Ukraine into NATO tomorrow against all opposition"; but that is highly unlikely to happen.

On another hand Zelensky position is quite precarious and he might face real calls for his early dismissal/re-elections.

[Mekh]

If Russia launches a full scale invasion of Ukraine in December, Shalcker will be denying it until February at least.

[Ivanstone]

i dont know why you doubt it so much. putin is one of the evilest people alive and has been desperate about ukraine's stance for a long time now.

Isn't he your ideal leader?

[caervek]

Thing that surprised me about this is, a coup would involve forces in Kiev overthrowing the government as happened in the 2014 coup, but that would be practically impossible as the ongoing Ukrainian civil war is an east vs west affair and as far as we are lead to believe all the forces in the west are loyal to the Kiev government (not to mention that the west is kinda winning the war at the moment).

In order for a coup to be successful Russia would have to plow forces into Ukraine to support it as the eastern Ukrainian forces are far two fatigued from 7 years of civil war to do anything to help. Which would be an astronomically dumb idea as even if the west did nothing and Putin took Kiev/etc there would still be a civil war going on the only difference the Ukrainian governments problems would now be his governments problems, Putin is many things but retarded has never been one of them.

There is of course the possibility that the Kiev government have been exaggerating how well the civil war is going and now pro-Russians in the west are thinking the ones in the east have the right idea, but I find that very hard to believe simply by looking at what's happened to the east lol.

I guess the moral of the story here is never ever ever give away your nuclear weapons xD

** EDIT **

A thought just occured to me, what if Russia and China launch synchronised invasions of Ukraine and Taiwan. By the time the west figures which way to look it would all be over.

[Xarkan]

A thought just occured to me, what if Russia and China launch synchronised invasions of Ukraine and Taiwan. By the time the west figures which way to look it would all be over.

I think any agreement between Russia and China depending on the other doing anything like that would probably fall apart because they would expect sudden but enevitable betrayal from the other and thus not risk standing alone by acting..

[Machismo]

well you have to wonder you know? If Putin takes over Ukraine and dares the US to do something and we don't, that's gonna motivate China to assimilate Taiwan

Except, you are literally on record saying that is exactly what you want from leaders.

[Ihavewaffles]

When you know it's a Tsugunai thread before opening it up...

Who is that?

Uhm, op, you are linking pravda.ru, uh...that's a tabloid, that's like linking daily mail or something...

There is a similar thread from april "Russia threatening to invade Ukraine 2.0"
https://www.mmo-champion.com/threads...hlight=ukraine

really, u should have a mega thread so u can keep going year after year "dem ruskiz r coming!!!"

[Calfredd]

Who is that?

Former name of the OP and if you look at his thread history you'll find a lot of warmongering threads and threads like "people with visible scars or no legs should be ashamed of being seen in public"
and "does being on 4chan automatically put me on a criminal watch list?"
among other such nonsense.

Before his hard-on for a war with Russia, it was a war with China, and before that, a war with North Korea.

[Egomaniac]

*Sees a thread with Shalker and Yuppie (Tsuganai) sniping at each other

*me


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Before his hard-on for a war with Russia, it was a war with China, and before that, a war with North Korea.

Well, with this thread he gets to stroke to a war with Russia AND with China. Probably NK as well.

Just primo fapping material. The only way to make it better for him is if the US started up internment camps for the disabled and people with autism.

[Yuujin]

I think you have to question the mental health of someone who thinks the answer is a nuclear response.

[Kaleredar]

*Sees a thread with Shalker and Yuppie (Tsuganai) sniping at each other

It's like two crazy bus hobos who never really acknowledge what's being said to them and just kind of ramble to themselves having an argument with one another.