Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Marcellus1986]

That's fascinating - I think it's pretty safe to say that not only was Ukraine given the HIMARS systems, but on top of that they probably get fresh lists of juicy targets delivered to them several times per day.

Yeah there was a report from Reuters that the Russian Defence Ministry claimed they destroyed a warehouse full of US artillery supplies to Ukraine but haven’t seen any subsequent reporting about it.

[Gorsameth]

That's fascinating - I think it's pretty safe to say that not only was Ukraine given the HIMARS systems, but on top of that they probably get fresh lists of juicy targets delivered to them several times per day.

I mean, we've known the entire time that Ukraine is receiving western intel.

[Forogil]

I mean, we've known the entire time that Ukraine is receiving western intel.

Yup, and even officially confirmed and we can even see parts of that with Awacs, and other intelligence-gathering planes, and high-altitude drones daily circling close to Ukraine. And obviously some aircrafts that we cannot see (as well as satellites).

However, there are claims it is delayed a few hours to make it "intelligence" and not "live targeting data".

[Corvus]

An article on HIMARS o'clock and the effect it is having.

https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2022/...HIMARS-o-clock

[Flarelaine]

They've got a million men in the military (at least on paper - some have been found not to exist and their commanders pocketing their pay) but most aren't in combat roles. Their actual combat troops probably have taken losses in that range, which is why they are pressganging every male in the occupied Donbas and recruiting out of jails to find the cannon fodder they need.

That would explain why our resident Donetskian has not posted in over a month.

[P for Pancetta]

Yup, and even officially confirmed and we can even see parts of that with Awacs, and other intelligence-gathering planes, and high-altitude drones daily circling close to Ukraine. And obviously some aircrafts that we cannot see (as well as satellites).

However, there are claims it is delayed a few hours to make it "intelligence" and not "live targeting data".

I doubt that last part since supposedly there are quite a few western special forces in Ukraine helping with various things. And delaying info might put them in danger too.

[Iphie]

I doubt that last part since supposedly there are quite a few western special forces in Ukraine helping with various things. And delaying info might put them in danger too.

I'm not sure where you got that info but that's, most likely, untrue. Simply put NATO cannot afford even the chance of having combat units or special forces caught in any position where they would fight.

[ifrah]

About that:



I get threatening Finland, even if it's hilarious from the point of view of anyone who isn't Russia. Russia has proven they have a zero point zero percent chance of taking on Finland alone, let alone beating them before the EU and US arrived to express their dissent. Not even Russia believes Russia can take Alaska. Even if they tried, the US would stomp them flat with T-51b troops and probably launch every weapon we have while every nation on Earth, even China, cheers as Russia is reduced to fine powder.

So yes, that has to be saber rattling, and a dull saber at that. It's not even a credible bluff. Russia must be desperate for a way out that doesn't look like the abject, humiliating defeat they've been soaking in for the last few months.

There's also the other side to it, more familiar to anyone who's exposed to the Chinese propaganda. Yes, a fat portion of the stories is thick bullshit, and they know as well as anyone with half a brain that anyone with half a brain knows that. But that's also the point, you should not care about those who already know the plot, or at least some broad outlines of it. You want to gradually build up to the snowball of less intelligent. Your target audience never was those who know a bit, so why bother catering them.

[Forogil]

I doubt that last part since supposedly there are quite a few western special forces in Ukraine helping with various things. And delaying info might put them in danger too.

I got it from DoD https://www.nbcnews.com/news/investi...aine-rcna18542

One of the reasons is that if the US would be seen as providing real-time targeting info, and not only intelligence, it could be seen as the US being actively involved in the war; and most people (OP excluded) don't want that.

I'm not sure where you got that info but that's, most likely, untrue. Simply put NATO cannot afford even the chance of having combat units or special forces caught in any position where they would fight.

Currently yes (possibly excluding covert ops - but they are covert so I don't know, and I don't expect anyone to tell the truth).

The closest is talk about sending special forces to guard the US embassy - https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-...a0f968520e48e4

[Iphie]

Currently yes (possibly excluding covert ops - but they are covert so I don't know, and I don't expect anyone to tell the truth).

The closest is talk about sending special forces to guard the US embassy - https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-...a0f968520e48e4

Yeah, I don't think russia would like that but that is a legitimate mission so they can't complain too much unless they want people to complain about the russian guards. Covert ops aren't super likely either but, as you say, if all goes well we'll never know.

[Mikah]

I got it from DoD https://www.nbcnews.com/news/investi...aine-rcna18542

One of the reasons is that if the US would be seen as providing real-time targeting info, and not only intelligence, it could be seen as the US being actively involved in the war; and most people (OP excluded) don't want that.


Currently yes (possibly excluding covert ops - but they are covert so I don't know, and I don't expect anyone to tell the truth).

The closest is talk about sending special forces to guard the US embassy - https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-...a0f968520e48e4

To be honest, I doubt that they will let the Ukrainians just fire HIMARS blindly for the heck of it. Those missiles are $150K a pop. There absolutely are special forces from NATO operating in Ukraine, and providing live targeting info as well as combat help.

Obviously they will stay away from the front lines, and will not participate in direct confrontations. But as long as the risk of getting captured is minimal, they can maintain plausible deniability if a few do get caught. They will likely say they are foreign combatants, and Russia will be happy to buy it, because admitting otherwise would mean war.

The occasion is too good to pass on training your troops, and testing your equipment against a real 'modern' army. The investment is worth so much more. And when you pay $150K to destroy a $2M tank from the enemy without getting directly involved, it is a great investment.

Regardless of the outcome of this war for the Ukrainians or the Russians, the fact is that Russia is losing a lot of military capacity and equipment, while the US are testing theirs at a very low cost. The more this drags on, the more the US and NATO are 'winning'.

[Gorsameth]

why would they be firing blind? Ukraine has their own intelligence and scouts for live data from the ground to hit troop positions and large ammo dumps don't exactly move every few hours.
if they were storing thousands of rounds of artillery ammo somewhere yesterday, they will still be storing them there today and you can fire a missile at it.

[Corvus]

Reportedly Russia is going to be buying hundreds of drones, including armed ones, from Iran.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/0...ussia-00045195

[Iphie]

Reportedly Russia is going to be buying hundreds of drones, including armed ones, from Iran.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/0...ussia-00045195

Tch, so finally russia neeeds to buy new gear, and they buy it from Iran, who is already sanctioned heavily, what are the chances they went to China first and China said "screw that!" (basically I wonder how far down the line russia had to go.)

[Corvus]

Tch, so finally russia neeeds to buy new gear, and they buy it from Iran, who is already sanctioned heavily, what are the chances they went to China first and China said "screw that!" (basically I wonder how far down the line russia had to go.)

Iran has a lot more experience with drones than Russia, and has been making them longer as well. Plus they use a lot of Chinese tech in them as well. This could actually be a back-door method of getting Chinese drones to Russia without officially doing so.

[Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang]

I recently started wondering if, given the food crisis and its future consequences, Putin will at some point borrow Erdogan's and Lukashenko's playbook and start weaponizing mass refugee waves. Obvious easy targets would be Finland and the Baltic States, but with sufficient resource allocation he could technically target Canada and the US as well.

- - - Updated - - -

Iran has a lot more experience with drones than Russia, and has been making them longer as well. Plus they use a lot of Chinese tech in them as well. This could actually be a back-door method of getting Chinese drones to Russia without officially doing so.

AFAIK the Iranians, trough their Houti proxies, were the first to pioneer long range drone swarm attacks.

[Kaleredar]

I recently started wondering if, given the food crisis and its future consequences, Putin will at some point borrow Erdogan's and Lukashenko's playbook and start weaponizing mass refugee waves. Obvious easy targets would be Finland and the Baltic States, but with sufficient resource allocation he could technically target Canada and the US as well.

I think Putin has more important things to worry about, relatively speaking, than whether he can manipulate countries whose politics he has no say in over a crisis he can't affect affirmative control of in any real fashion a few years down the line to hopefully affect some result not actually directly related to the country he's at war with but instead to indirectly pressure countries that he's not directly fighting into not giving as much aid to a country he IS fighting... so that he can take it over and hopefully the food resumes flowing?

Like, you know, getting personnel and equipment into a country right next to his, which he seems to be having a tough time doing.

[Corvus]

Russian deputies have been called back from holidays for a special session of the Duma on Friday - and you know how politicians hate their numerous holidays interrupted.

Lot of speculation as to what for. The gherkin is hoping it means a formally declaration of war and mass mobilisation though most don't think putler will go that far yet.

https://twitter.com/mdmitri91/status...IDSyD6j2pAacnw

Other options are to do with the economic woes, a formal annexation of occupied lands or issuing Ukraine an ultimatum to surrender 'or else.'

[Mihalik]

Russian deputies have been called back from holidays for a special session of the Duma on Friday - and you know how politicians hate their numerous holidays interrupted.

Lot of speculation as to what for. The gherkin is hoping it means a formally declaration of war and mass mobilisation though most don't think putler will go that far yet.

https://twitter.com/mdmitri91/status...IDSyD6j2pAacnw

Other options are to do with the economic woes, a formal annexation of occupied lands or issuing Ukraine an ultimatum to surrender 'or else.'

Why won't they just fucking stop? What's the fucking point of this shit show?

[Santti]

Why won't they just fucking stop? What's the fucking point of this shit show?

I'm guessing Russia feels pressured to keep up, for domestic policy reasons. They expected a quick and dirty win, and got fucked for it. Russia absolutely couldn't handle a humiliating defeat, is what I think is the thought process.

Something something sunk cost fallacy, losing face...