1. #21581
    Quote Originally Posted by Breccia View Post
    About that:



    I get threatening Finland, even if it's hilarious from the point of view of anyone who isn't Russia. Russia has proven they have a zero point zero percent chance of taking on Finland alone, let alone beating them before the EU and US arrived to express their dissent. Not even Russia believes Russia can take Alaska. Even if they tried, the US would stomp them flat with T-51b troops and probably launch every weapon we have while every nation on Earth, even China, cheers as Russia is reduced to fine powder.

    So yes, that has to be saber rattling, and a dull saber at that. It's not even a credible bluff. Russia must be desperate for a way out that doesn't look like the abject, humiliating defeat they've been soaking in for the last few months.
    Yeah it’s definately for internal propaganda purpose.

    “We havent even started! They’re lucky we’re so much on control that we won’t take Finland and Alaska!”

    At some point the likes of Shalcker will either stop the kool-aid and either revolt or accept their shit destiny.

  2. #21582
    Quote Originally Posted by Corvus View Post
    The Gerkin is whining that the much vaunted s400 is unable to deal with himars despite advertising it could, and that over the last week it has caused a lot of very heavy losses.

    https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianCo...m_source=share
    That's fascinating - I think it's pretty safe to say that not only was Ukraine given the HIMARS systems, but on top of that they probably get fresh lists of juicy targets delivered to them several times per day.

  3. #21583
    Quote Originally Posted by Shrouded View Post
    That's fascinating - I think it's pretty safe to say that not only was Ukraine given the HIMARS systems, but on top of that they probably get fresh lists of juicy targets delivered to them several times per day.
    Yeah there was a report from Reuters that the Russian Defence Ministry claimed they destroyed a warehouse full of US artillery supplies to Ukraine but haven’t seen any subsequent reporting about it.

  4. #21584
    Quote Originally Posted by Shrouded View Post
    That's fascinating - I think it's pretty safe to say that not only was Ukraine given the HIMARS systems, but on top of that they probably get fresh lists of juicy targets delivered to them several times per day.
    I mean, we've known the entire time that Ukraine is receiving western intel.
    It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death

  5. #21585
    Quote Originally Posted by Gorsameth View Post
    I mean, we've known the entire time that Ukraine is receiving western intel.
    Yup, and even officially confirmed and we can even see parts of that with Awacs, and other intelligence-gathering planes, and high-altitude drones daily circling close to Ukraine. And obviously some aircrafts that we cannot see (as well as satellites).

    However, there are claims it is delayed a few hours to make it "intelligence" and not "live targeting data".

  6. #21586
    An article on HIMARS o'clock and the effect it is having.

    https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2022/...HIMARS-o-clock

  7. #21587
    Quote Originally Posted by Corvus View Post
    They've got a million men in the military (at least on paper - some have been found not to exist and their commanders pocketing their pay) but most aren't in combat roles. Their actual combat troops probably have taken losses in that range, which is why they are pressganging every male in the occupied Donbas and recruiting out of jails to find the cannon fodder they need.
    That would explain why our resident Donetskian has not posted in over a month.

  8. #21588
    Quote Originally Posted by Forogil View Post
    Yup, and even officially confirmed and we can even see parts of that with Awacs, and other intelligence-gathering planes, and high-altitude drones daily circling close to Ukraine. And obviously some aircrafts that we cannot see (as well as satellites).

    However, there are claims it is delayed a few hours to make it "intelligence" and not "live targeting data".
    I doubt that last part since supposedly there are quite a few western special forces in Ukraine helping with various things. And delaying info might put them in danger too.

  9. #21589
    Herald of the Titans Iphie's Avatar
    10+ Year Old Account
    Join Date
    Jul 2009
    Location
    Suomi/Nederland
    Posts
    2,963
    Quote Originally Posted by P for Pancetta View Post
    I doubt that last part since supposedly there are quite a few western special forces in Ukraine helping with various things. And delaying info might put them in danger too.
    I'm not sure where you got that info but that's, most likely, untrue. Simply put NATO cannot afford even the chance of having combat units or special forces caught in any position where they would fight.

  10. #21590
    Quote Originally Posted by Breccia View Post
    About that:



    I get threatening Finland, even if it's hilarious from the point of view of anyone who isn't Russia. Russia has proven they have a zero point zero percent chance of taking on Finland alone, let alone beating them before the EU and US arrived to express their dissent. Not even Russia believes Russia can take Alaska. Even if they tried, the US would stomp them flat with T-51b troops and probably launch every weapon we have while every nation on Earth, even China, cheers as Russia is reduced to fine powder.

    So yes, that has to be saber rattling, and a dull saber at that. It's not even a credible bluff. Russia must be desperate for a way out that doesn't look like the abject, humiliating defeat they've been soaking in for the last few months.
    There's also the other side to it, more familiar to anyone who's exposed to the Chinese propaganda. Yes, a fat portion of the stories is thick bullshit, and they know as well as anyone with half a brain that anyone with half a brain knows that. But that's also the point, you should not care about those who already know the plot, or at least some broad outlines of it. You want to gradually build up to the snowball of less intelligent. Your target audience never was those who know a bit, so why bother catering them.

  11. #21591
    Quote Originally Posted by P for Pancetta View Post
    I doubt that last part since supposedly there are quite a few western special forces in Ukraine helping with various things. And delaying info might put them in danger too.
    I got it from DoD https://www.nbcnews.com/news/investi...aine-rcna18542

    One of the reasons is that if the US would be seen as providing real-time targeting info, and not only intelligence, it could be seen as the US being actively involved in the war; and most people (OP excluded) don't want that.

    Quote Originally Posted by Iphie View Post
    I'm not sure where you got that info but that's, most likely, untrue. Simply put NATO cannot afford even the chance of having combat units or special forces caught in any position where they would fight.
    Currently yes (possibly excluding covert ops - but they are covert so I don't know, and I don't expect anyone to tell the truth).

    The closest is talk about sending special forces to guard the US embassy - https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-...a0f968520e48e4

  12. #21592
    Herald of the Titans Iphie's Avatar
    10+ Year Old Account
    Join Date
    Jul 2009
    Location
    Suomi/Nederland
    Posts
    2,963
    Quote Originally Posted by Forogil View Post

    Currently yes (possibly excluding covert ops - but they are covert so I don't know, and I don't expect anyone to tell the truth).

    The closest is talk about sending special forces to guard the US embassy - https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-...a0f968520e48e4
    Yeah, I don't think russia would like that but that is a legitimate mission so they can't complain too much unless they want people to complain about the russian guards. Covert ops aren't super likely either but, as you say, if all goes well we'll never know.

  13. #21593
    Stood in the Fire
    15+ Year Old Account
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Location
    Canada
    Posts
    481
    Quote Originally Posted by Forogil View Post
    I got it from DoD https://www.nbcnews.com/news/investi...aine-rcna18542

    One of the reasons is that if the US would be seen as providing real-time targeting info, and not only intelligence, it could be seen as the US being actively involved in the war; and most people (OP excluded) don't want that.


    Currently yes (possibly excluding covert ops - but they are covert so I don't know, and I don't expect anyone to tell the truth).

    The closest is talk about sending special forces to guard the US embassy - https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-...a0f968520e48e4
    To be honest, I doubt that they will let the Ukrainians just fire HIMARS blindly for the heck of it. Those missiles are $150K a pop. There absolutely are special forces from NATO operating in Ukraine, and providing live targeting info as well as combat help.

    Obviously they will stay away from the front lines, and will not participate in direct confrontations. But as long as the risk of getting captured is minimal, they can maintain plausible deniability if a few do get caught. They will likely say they are foreign combatants, and Russia will be happy to buy it, because admitting otherwise would mean war.

    The occasion is too good to pass on training your troops, and testing your equipment against a real 'modern' army. The investment is worth so much more. And when you pay $150K to destroy a $2M tank from the enemy without getting directly involved, it is a great investment.

    Regardless of the outcome of this war for the Ukrainians or the Russians, the fact is that Russia is losing a lot of military capacity and equipment, while the US are testing theirs at a very low cost. The more this drags on, the more the US and NATO are 'winning'.

  14. #21594
    why would they be firing blind? Ukraine has their own intelligence and scouts for live data from the ground to hit troop positions and large ammo dumps don't exactly move every few hours.
    if they were storing thousands of rounds of artillery ammo somewhere yesterday, they will still be storing them there today and you can fire a missile at it.
    It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death

  15. #21595
    Reportedly Russia is going to be buying hundreds of drones, including armed ones, from Iran.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/0...ussia-00045195

  16. #21596
    Herald of the Titans Iphie's Avatar
    10+ Year Old Account
    Join Date
    Jul 2009
    Location
    Suomi/Nederland
    Posts
    2,963
    Quote Originally Posted by Corvus View Post
    Reportedly Russia is going to be buying hundreds of drones, including armed ones, from Iran.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/0...ussia-00045195
    Tch, so finally russia neeeds to buy new gear, and they buy it from Iran, who is already sanctioned heavily, what are the chances they went to China first and China said "screw that!" (basically I wonder how far down the line russia had to go.)

  17. #21597
    Quote Originally Posted by Iphie View Post
    Tch, so finally russia neeeds to buy new gear, and they buy it from Iran, who is already sanctioned heavily, what are the chances they went to China first and China said "screw that!" (basically I wonder how far down the line russia had to go.)
    Iran has a lot more experience with drones than Russia, and has been making them longer as well. Plus they use a lot of Chinese tech in them as well. This could actually be a back-door method of getting Chinese drones to Russia without officially doing so.

  18. #21598
    I recently started wondering if, given the food crisis and its future consequences, Putin will at some point borrow Erdogan's and Lukashenko's playbook and start weaponizing mass refugee waves. Obvious easy targets would be Finland and the Baltic States, but with sufficient resource allocation he could technically target Canada and the US as well.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Corvus View Post
    Iran has a lot more experience with drones than Russia, and has been making them longer as well. Plus they use a lot of Chinese tech in them as well. This could actually be a back-door method of getting Chinese drones to Russia without officially doing so.
    AFAIK the Iranians, trough their Houti proxies, were the first to pioneer long range drone swarm attacks.
    "It is every citizen's final duty to go into the tanks, and become one with all the people."

    ~ Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang, "Ethics for Tomorrow"

  19. #21599
    Merely a Setback Kaleredar's Avatar
    10+ Year Old Account
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    phasing...
    Posts
    25,605
    Quote Originally Posted by Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang View Post
    I recently started wondering if, given the food crisis and its future consequences, Putin will at some point borrow Erdogan's and Lukashenko's playbook and start weaponizing mass refugee waves. Obvious easy targets would be Finland and the Baltic States, but with sufficient resource allocation he could technically target Canada and the US as well.
    I think Putin has more important things to worry about, relatively speaking, than whether he can manipulate countries whose politics he has no say in over a crisis he can't affect affirmative control of in any real fashion a few years down the line to hopefully affect some result not actually directly related to the country he's at war with but instead to indirectly pressure countries that he's not directly fighting into not giving as much aid to a country he IS fighting... so that he can take it over and hopefully the food resumes flowing?

    Like, you know, getting personnel and equipment into a country right next to his, which he seems to be having a tough time doing.
    “Do not lose time on daily trivialities. Do not dwell on petty detail. For all of these things melt away and drift apart within the obscure traffic of time. Live well and live broadly. You are alive and living now. Now is the envy of all of the dead.” ~ Emily3, World of Tomorrow
    Quote Originally Posted by Wells View Post
    Kaleredar is right...
    Words to live by.

  20. #21600
    Russian deputies have been called back from holidays for a special session of the Duma on Friday - and you know how politicians hate their numerous holidays interrupted.

    Lot of speculation as to what for. The gherkin is hoping it means a formally declaration of war and mass mobilisation though most don't think putler will go that far yet.

    https://twitter.com/mdmitri91/status...IDSyD6j2pAacnw

    Other options are to do with the economic woes, a formal annexation of occupied lands or issuing Ukraine an ultimatum to surrender 'or else.'

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •