Russian invasion of Ukraine

[enigma77]

Lol @ the Grayzone, they got some of their fascist heroes HIMAR'd

A few days ago, the Grey Zone (RSOTM) Telegram channel posted photos of a visit to the so-called Wagner HQ in the Donbas (Popasna). Prigozhin may have been there.
The photos were apparently easy to geolocate. Ukraine destroyed it in a HIMARS strike today.

I wonder if the cat survived.

[fwc577]

if Prigozhin got domed by a himars strike big lmao

Well, if he did, I've got one thing to say:

Dasvidaniya, motherfucker.

[Corvus]

The cynic in me thinks it saves on pensions...but that's really cynical.

Might not be cynical enough. Someone from Russia was explaining their pension system. Workers 'contribute' 22% of their wages to the government. When they reach 65 they get a pitiful pension. But retirement age for men is higher than the average life expectancy, so over half the male population never get a pension. So all that money they gave to the government disappears into yachts and mansions.

Seems like the nazi may not have been there when the strike happened, but the Wagnerites did suffer casualties. And if it was an HQ unit, then they could be significant ones. About a month ago, a divisional HQ got hit by HIMARS and the losses were significant. Via social media posts on funerals, it is known the CO, Chief of Staff, 2 Deputies Commanders and a couple of other senior staff were killed and more are suspected. And a number of then had ranks lower than their positions, indicating they were replacements themselves.

And this is the change in frontlines over the last month.



The Russians aren't moving and taking hundreds of casualties a day. A recent US report had them loosing 500 a day dead and wounded.

[Iphie]

The Russians aren't moving and taking hundreds of casualties a day. A recent US report had them loosing 500 a day dead and wounded.

500 a day... that's insane, That's about half a BTG, or nearly a full one if at the lower limit. In a month that's 15000 or so. That 80000+ casualties the US has been floating lately suddenly seems very realistic.

Also, they started with about 120-150000 soldiers, right? No wonder they're scraping the bottom of the barrel and aren't getting anywhere.

Any sane army leadership would have given up ages ago.

[Corvus]

Reportedly they started with 190K + 40K separatists. Since then they've press-ganged pretty much every male tehy can find in the occupied Donbas regions, stripped the other borders dry and created their volunteer units. Number wise they may have a similar amount of troops still, but they are of much poorer quality.

[Kaleredar]

500 a day... that's insane, That's about half a BTG, or nearly a full one if at the lower limit. In a month that's 15000 or so. That 80000+ casualties the US has been floating lately suddenly seems very realistic.

Also, they started with about 120-150000 soldiers, right? No wonder they're scraping the bottom of the barrel and aren't getting anywhere.

Any sane army leadership would have given up ages ago.

America was in Afghanistan for 20 years. Over that period of time 2,448 American soldiers lost their lives and 20,752 were injured in combat.

With Russia touting 500 casualties a day they suffer America's combat casualties over two decades in a matter of about a month and a half.

[Corvus]

Russia got caught up in a peer-level full scale war, something the US and the West haven't experienced for a long time. Afghanistan was 23K over 20 years. Vietnam was 360K over 20 years, just for the US. At current rates, Russia is going to loose than many in 2 years, ten times faster.

[Iphie]

Can you imagine how devastated the demographics are after this, they're already shot to hell due to the tactics of WWII, but repeating those tactics on the modern battlefield means that any prospective stabilization is completely undone.

[Twdft]

Can you imagine how devastated the demographics are after this, they're already shot to hell due to the tactics of WWII, but repeating those tactics on the modern battlefield means that any prospective stabilization is completely undone.

ruSSia has 144 million population, it's not gonna make a dent.

[Iphie]

ruSSia has 144 million population, it's not gonna make a dent.

You might want to check how the population pyramid looks, on the population as a whole it's nothing, but in the respective cohorts where these young people are coming from it's devastating.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Russia

russia already has a fertility problem, removing 80000+ men from the equation isn't going to do them any favours. (provided they don't already have children.)

[Poopymonster]

You might want to check how the population pyramid looks, on the population as a whole it's nothing, but in the respective cohorts where these young people are coming from it's devastating.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Russia

russia already has a fertility problem, removing 80000+ men from the equation isn't going to do them any favours. (provided they don't already have children.)

They can repopulate via all the Russian babies being born this winter to the Ukraine women near the border.

[Corvus]

They have lost around 1 million due to covid as well.

There is a reason they have been abducting hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians, including huge numbers of kids.

[Veggie50]

You might want to check how the population pyramid looks, on the population as a whole it's nothing, but in the respective cohorts where these young people are coming from it's devastating.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Russia

russia already has a fertility problem, removing 80000+ men from the equation isn't going to do them any favours. (provided they don't already have children.)

Reading that graph there’s actually a small surplus of men around age 30, so don’t think that harms them so much.

Not that the losses they’re suffering aren’t downright terrifying.

[Iphie]

Reading that graph there’s actually a small surplus of men around age 30, so don’t think that harms them so much.

Not that the losses they’re suffering aren’t downright terrifying.

It's the future children that won't be born, also, those who return and turn to alcholism, drugs or are crippled for life. It's the knock on effects that will get you. the fertility rate is already 1.4 or so in the urban areas, and 1.7 in rural areas. In that fgraph you can clearly see where the russians stopped having children and that won't get much better for the foreseeable future then you add that whose who CAN get out WILL get out, so the rich, the bright and the best. Besides, those in the cohorts above those need someone to pay for their pension by working, that small stem can't sustain that.

[Lahis]

Any sane army leadership would have given up ages ago.

That's not an option for Putin. He committed into this knowing it will either make him the God Emperor of Russia, or get him killed in palace revolution.

[Iphie]

That's not an option for Putin. He committed into this knowing it will either make him the God Emperor of Russia, or get him killed in palace revolution.

I wasn't referring to putin being the sane leadership here...But I wouldn't be surprised if there's preparations under way to do exactly as you say. Pure speculation of course but I do have to believe that at least *some* at the top are uncomfortable with all this, no organization is a monolith not matter how much we try.

[Lahis]

I wasn't referring to putin being the sane leadership here...But I wouldn't be surprised if there's preparations under way to do exactly as you say. Pure speculation of course but I do have to believe that at least *some* at the top are uncomfortable with all this, no organization is a monolith not matter how much we try.

But this is Putin's war and it will keep going as long as he needs it to. He needs a solid victory to save his face into the history books.

The sane people you are referring to have either fled Russia, or are planning the palace revolution.

[Corvus]

Ukrainians are saying 100+ wagnerites were eliminated in the strike, many of them senior leadership.

Major hit if true.

[Iphie]

Russia is ready to arm its allies

I'm not sure I'd take it, not even if they paid me to and the question is also: WHICH weapons?

[Kallisto]

Russia is ready to arm its allies

I'm not sure I'd take it, not even if they paid me to and the question is also: WHICH weapons?

The cold war rust obviously :P