Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Corvus]

The thing that still concerns me a bit is that despite of all the doom and gloom over Russia's capability to keep their troops in any kind of condition, Ukraine hasn't regained much ground in the grand scheme of things. Will their rate of advance increase? I don't know, regardless of the sanctions would be foolish to think Russia would not allocate every factory they possibly can to throw in the kitchen sinks and whatnots. Ukraine is feeding on alms, which fortunately are still there, but I have my concerns when looking at what Germany and that lapdog of Scholz is doing.
The upper hand for Russia is that there won't be any no fly zones or other UN-mandated interventions. China and their "friends" got that side covered.

Just my semi-pessimistic speculation here, so I'm happy to be corrected and educated.

It's the infamous mud season in Ukraine. Nothing much moves except along main roads which makes it easier to defend against.

As soon as winter arrives the ground will freeze over and vehicles will be able to off-road again. And it comes with the added bonus of all those unprepared russian mobiks freezing.

[Endus]

It's the infamous mud season in Ukraine. Nothing much moves except along main roads which makes it easier to defend against.

As soon as winter arrives the ground will freeze over and vehicles will be able to off-road again. And it comes with the added bonus of all those unprepared russian mobiks freezing.

There's also something to be said for the firehose approach Russia classically takes. The whole "quantity has a quality all of its own" thing. It's not working here, but Russia can keep the firehose of soldiers going a bit longer. Ukraine's holding ground while being hit with the firehose, which is all it needs to do, as long as it can maintain enough strength to push forward when the firehose, inevitably, runs dry.

[Breccia]

As soon as winter arrives the ground will freeze over and vehicles will be able to off-road again. And it comes with the added bonus of all those unprepared russian mobiks freezing.

Ukraine's holding ground while being hit with the firehose, which is all it needs to do, as long as it can maintain enough strength to push forward when the firehose, inevitably, runs dry.

You know...I seem to remember a conflict involving Russia some time ago when an invading army kept slamming their large army in the winter to see, fuck it, it was the Nazis. The Nazis tried to invade Russia the same way that Russia is now trying to invade Ukraine. Have these people learned nothing?

Whilst Hitler blamed the weather for the failure of Barbarossa, the Axis powers fell short for a multitude of reasons. The Germans had failed to prepare for a longer campaign and logistical problems meant that vital supplies, including winter clothing, did not reach the front lines. The further they progressed into Soviet territory, the further they stretched their inadequate supply lines, which struggled to cope with the harsh weather and difficult terrain.

The Germans also underestimated the determination of the Soviets as well as their numbers. Stalin had more reserves than German intelligence had anticipated and Hitler’s declaration that the war in the East was an ideological one of total annihilation only stiffened the resolve of the defenders, who might have capitulated had the Nazis come as liberators instead of conquerors. In the end, Stalin rallied his people for The Great Patriotic War with cries to defend ‘Mother Russia’, strengthening the Soviet will to fight to the bitter end.

[Canpinter]

You know...I seem to remember a conflict involving Russia some time ago when an invading army kept slamming their large army in the winter to see, fuck it, it was the Nazis. The Nazis tried to invade Russia the same way that Russia is now trying to invade Ukraine. Have these people learned nothing?

Whilst Hitler blamed the weather for the failure of Barbarossa, the Axis powers fell short for a multitude of reasons. The Germans had failed to prepare for a longer campaign and logistical problems meant that vital supplies, including winter clothing, did not reach the front lines. The further they progressed into Soviet territory, the further they stretched their inadequate supply lines, which struggled to cope with the harsh weather and difficult terrain.

The Germans also underestimated the determination of the Soviets as well as their numbers. Stalin had more reserves than German intelligence had anticipated and Hitler’s declaration that the war in the East was an ideological one of total annihilation only stiffened the resolve of the defenders, who might have capitulated had the Nazis come as liberators instead of conquerors. In the end, Stalin rallied his people for The Great Patriotic War with cries to defend ‘Mother Russia’, strengthening the Soviet will to fight to the bitter end.

Let's not forget the parallel of the USSR and now the Ukrainians getting massive amounts of arms free from a "neutral" USA.

[Breccia]

Let's not forget the parallel of the USSR and now the Ukrainians getting massive amounts of arms free from a "neutral" USA.

Actually that reminds me:

I think an article said it best: Whoever runs out of ammo first will lose the war and it may just come to that.

You seem informed and interested in this topic. What makes you think Ukraine will not get ammo from the US, the EU, NATO, etc? Can't we just hand them more?

[Gorsameth]

Actually that reminds me:



You seem informed and interested in this topic. What makes you think Ukraine will not get ammo from the US, the EU, NATO, etc? Can't we just hand them more?

I think his position is that we will run out of ammo to give before Russia runs out.

[Makabreska]

I think his position is that we will run out of ammo to give before Russia runs out.

IIRC he had lot's of this "Russia is doing better than it looks" type of takes, but could barely support them.

[Corvus]

Another batch of US aid is heading to Ukraine, including 45 refurbished tanks, 1100 Ghost Phoenix drones, 40 armoured riverine boats and 250 armoured vehicles.

It was obvious russia was using its prisoners as cannon fodder in the war - more than 500 of them have been killed fighting for wagner SS in just 2 months.

[CostinR]

You seem informed and interested in this topic. What makes you think Ukraine will not get ammo from the US, the EU, NATO, etc? Can't we just hand them more?

There are two stories here regarding ammunition.

First, we have Ukraine's pre-war military, thousands of tanks, artillery pieces, anti-air defenses, APCs that largely of Soviet design, many upgraded but using Soviet era ammo, or upgraded soviet ammo. For the most part the West lacks any kind of capability of producing ammunition of this type, and it cannot be replaced by Western Ammo: Ukraine's artillery pieces were 152 mm, the West uses 155 mm. Ukraine and other former Warsaw Pact/Soviet countries have some capacity to produce ammo but only a fraction of what Ukraine is using. So Ukraine has largely run out of ammo for their own pre-war artillery, and that's just one example that has been covered by the media fairly well, I cannot imagine how they are doing for anti-air missiles, ballistic missiles etc. They likely have enough tank shells and rifle ammo, for now at least, but even that is at risk.

The problem here is that without that ammo Ukraine's entire pre-war arsenal ends up non-functional, and there is very little chance of replacing said ammo: There's also so much countries like Poland or Czech Republic can produce.

You may have heard Biden lifted an arms embargo on Cyprus, that's so Cyprus can give it's own Soviet/Russian ammo to Ukraine since their equipment will be replaced by Western equipment.

The second story is related to Western Ammo. Ukraine was provided with thousands of Stingers, Javelins, Turkish Drones, 155mm artillery, HIMARS etc. The problem there is we do not, currently, have the capacity to produce more for them, or better said the US doesn't have the capacity to produce more to cover what Ukraine is using every month. When he was still around @Skroe made several posts about Western Ammo production and how it was very very low and would not be enough for any large scale long term conflict.

Ukraine is a large scale long term conflict that has been fought for close to a year now with no end in sight. Currently planned increases to address the problems of the shortfall would barely cover a third, perhaps half of what Ukraine is using right now, which is still a third of what Russia is doing every day: Estimates suggest Ukraine fires 6.000 shells a day and Russia 20.000.

As for Russia's ammo issues: They have issues with precision munitions, they never had a lot of them and production is a problem due to a lack of computer chips. They do not have issues with shells however outside of specific frontline issues since Ukraine is using HIMARS on their depots, but they have a huge stockpile and a far higher production capability overall. North Korea selling more? Supplemental to what they are using.

IIRC he had lot's of this "Russia is doing better than it looks" type of takes, but could barely support them.

Russia is doing better then what a lot of articles did suggest even now. Because their invasion plan was sheer lunacy: Barely 200.000 troops to conquer Ukraine with only 40-50.000 actually the border for weeks? That was never going to work. Invading through Chernobyl when the terrain is basically a swamp over there? Madness, but even then Kiev was at genuine risk during the first few days: Zelensky wasn't bullshitting around if anyone remembers what he was saying during those first few days.

As for how this will unfold for Ukraine: They did well in their recent offensive but it has grounded to a halt. Russia can't advance because they didn't prepare for such a war, Ukraine because they lack the capacity ( ammo, artillery you name it ). To hear some people say it here and other placed we should have expected the Russians to have been driven into the Azov Sea months ago.

What I expect is a long war that will take years, or we could see Russia resort to nukes if their conscripts fail. That has been expectation since summer.

[Breccia]

When he was still around @Skroe made several posts about Western Ammo production and how it was very very low and would not be enough for any large scale long term conflict.

I mean, he's not exactly around to comment, but this does match up with other sources. The US as of last month was looking for companies to make 12k 155mm shells a month. Of course, assuming they find, just to throw out a random number, then if Russia really does back off in the winter like current reports suggest, when hostilities resume that's another 80 days of heavy firing.

Oh, and I'm calling bullshit on Russia having "far higher production capability overall" when compared to the US alone. And we might be low, but Russia is literally negative.

At the front, the situation is not in favor of the occupiers, because Russia is running out of artillery shells.

This was stated by the advisor of the President's Office Oleksiy Arestovich in a conversation with the Russian journalist and human rights defender Mark Feigin.

"Artillery shells are running out. They threw 700,000 shells at us. 100,000 were taken from Belarus. They will finish firing and there will be no more shells. There is no production, and what is there is at an unsatisfactory pace," says the OP adviser.

According to him, the basis of the military strength of the Russian group is artillery.

"There is no artillery - they will not be able to do anything at all, not even to hold the territory. And they know it. 60% of the Russian shells they shoot with are prohibited to fire according to peacetime norms. How they fly and where they hit is another matter." - concluded Arestovych.

It should be noted that OP Arestovych's adviser is not saying for the first time that shells are being dropped on the Russians.

In June, he said that the Russians were taking ammunition out of Belarus because the Russian Federation was running out of it.

Another well-known expert, Oleg Zhdanov, said that the Russians were running out of ammunition in the Kherson region

That was a week ago. Any news from Kherson recently?

I have zero to negative faith that Russia can make more than US, and I have even less faith that Russia plus its allies can make more than the US and its allies. Russia was in decline before they signed the "fuck us over hard" contract. I don't believe a country cannibalizing commuter planes for fighter jet parts is doing great in the imports department, and the ammo dump explosions aren't doing them any favors. And even if they could hypothetically match the US production, regardless of amount, their rate of fire would drain them three times faster. Even at 20,000 shells/day they were losing ground. Imagine them coming into spring with enough ammo for a few weeks, while Ukraine has ammo for a few months.

I'm sorry, I'm just not buying that Russia is in a better position to refill its magazines than the countries directly supplying Ukraine are.

[CostinR]

@Breccia the ammo dump explosions as well as the destruction of the bridges to Kherson are the reasons why Russia is having issues in that specific region, you only need to look at the rate of fire in Donbass to see how much they are shooting, not due to their overall ammo capacity. It's not infinite of course, but the way I view the situation with Belarus and North Korea is that Russia is looking to maintain their current very high rate of fire, so they are supplementing their stockpiles.

Now I could be wrong but I sure as hell am not going to not trust a single word from a Ukrainian official like you just quoted ( not unless another source like the Pentagon agrees ), because governments in Eastern Europe lie. When/if Russia starts shooting less then they are every day and it isn't tied to localized issues: Like not being able to supply forces in Kherson because of depot destruction and bridge destructions, then we will know Russia has ammo problems, not before. We know Ukraine has ammo problems due to the frequency of their fire. Russia has maintained a very high rate of fire outside of HIMARS strikes or similar attacks taking out local depots.

I'm sorry, I'm just not buying that Russia is in a better position to refill its magazines than the countries directly supplying Ukraine are.

No one in the West outside of the United States produces any meaningful amounts of ammo, and the issues of American ammo production are well documented. We don't know how much Russia has but virtually every military analyst I've read believes they have an enormous amount of ammo.

Even if they don't then Russia does have alternatives like North Korea and it's enormous stockpile. North Korea will GLADLY sell Russia shells for money or oil/gas ( two things they lack ), and they already are to a degree.

[Breccia]

We don't know how much Russia has but virtually every military analyst I've read believes they have an enormous amount of ammo.

I literally just posted a source saying they had negative one hundred thousand shells, one week ago. I believe the verb tense you were looking for is "HAD an enormous amount of ammo". Also, while the US can ask Germany and Italy to help, and they have agreed, Russia has been forced to ask North Korea. And if you even attempt to argue that Germany and Italy combined are worse than North Korea, I'm going to demand you cite your sources -- and since I pre-emptively handwave any NK source as bogus, that means you're looking for Western gov/military intel at this point.

Also, we've seen NK rockets fire and sometimes miss the ocean. I'm pretty sure NK isn't where you go for quality or quantity. I think that's where you go when you want a fellow dictator to shovel fast-food burgers into your giant fat orange mouth.

Also also, even if Russia could keep up with the US and their allies -- which, after looking around myself, I still doubt to the point of needing a source that says otherwise -- they're choosing not to do so.

The only reason the Kremlin should have to buy artillery shells or rockets from North Korea or anyone is because Putin has been unwilling or unable to mobilize the Russian economy for war at even the most basic level

-- Frederick W. Kagan, a military expert at the American Enterprise Institute, as cited by the NYTimes who I am pretty sure knows how to find a good source

I guess, at this point, I'm just going to need to see these military analysts who claim Russia can out-ammo the US and still has lots of shells left. Because I looked at US sources and found less than nothing to back that up.

[Corvus]

I'll stick with the experts on this. Russia's rate of ammo production is largely known and it dwarfed by russias rate of fire. They are burning through it at a prodigious rate they can't keep up with. It is why they are begging from other countries and raiding Belarusian stores.

They are pulling out ammo so old it's hazardous for the user.

Given how poorly russias much vaunted vast stockpiles of everything else have turned out, with only 1 in 10 tanks usable, with rusty and unusable weapons, with 1.5 million winter uniforms going missing, its astonishing to think its ammo stockpiles have fared better.

A couple of actual experts have just come back from Ukraine, including touring the kherson front, and they reported a 2 day barrage of Ukrainian artillery was responded to with not a single Russian artillery round. Ukraine had ammo to spare, Russia did not.

[Kaleredar]

I'll stick with the experts on this. Russia's rate of ammo production is largely known and it dwarfed by russias rate of fire. They are burning through it at a prodigious rate they can't keep up with. It is why they are begging from other countries and raiding Belarusian stores.

They are pulling out ammo so old it's hazardous for the user.

Given how poorly russias much vaunted vast stockpiles of everything else have turned out, with only 1 in 10 tanks usable, with rusty and unusable weapons, with 1.5 million winter uniforms going missing, its astonishing to think its ammo stockpiles have fared better.

A couple of actual experts have just come back from Ukraine, including touring the kherson front, and they reported a 2 day barrage of Ukrainian artillery was responded to with not a single Russian artillery round. Ukraine had ammo to spare, Russia did not.

Not to mention Russia seems intent on using its ammunition to murder civilians and destroy public infrastructure, rather than damaging any target of military consequence.

The intent of these attacks is likely to try and “intimidate the Ukrainian population” into wanting to surrender, but if anything it appears to be emboldening their willingness to fight. It appears they’re not ruled by fear like Russia is.

[PACOX]

I have zero to negative faith that Russia can make more than US, and I have even less faith that Russia plus its allies can make more than the US and its allies. Russia was in decline before they signed the "fuck us over hard" contract. I don't believe a country cannibalizing commuter planes for fighter jet parts is doing great in the imports department, and the ammo dump explosions aren't doing them any favors. And even if they could hypothetically match the US production, regardless of amount, their rate of fire would drain them three times faster. Even at 20,000 shells/day they were losing ground. Imagine them coming into spring with enough ammo for a few weeks, while Ukraine has ammo for a few months.

I'm sorry, I'm just not buying that Russia is in a better position to refill its magazines than the countries directly supplying Ukraine are.

Realistically, no one knows what production would look like in a full scale war.


One of the contributing factors to the US's rise to superpower status was because we have the resources and got good at wartime production during WW2. The lessons learned carried over. The USSR was decent in its own ways but no longer exists, Russia is smaller and a mere shadow of that the USSR was. Putin didn't even the horrible state of his military before mobilizing on Ukraine. No way in hell they could outproduce the US. You'd have to some up with some paranoid long-term Tom Clancy novel conspiracy where Russia teamed up with say China and slowly chips away at the US economy. But because we live in the real world, that's not feasible.


Russia probably has room to ramp up production if it REALLY wanted to or its homeland was being threatened, not to the degree the US could in similar circumstances.

Russia is effectively fighting against the US production right now and getting hammered.

[Huehuecoyotl]

Now I could be wrong but I sure as hell am not going to not trust a single word from a Ukrainian official like you just quoted ( not unless another source like the Pentagon agrees ), because governments in Eastern Europe lie.

We had another poster, back at the start of all this, who used to be sceptical about anything that sounded positive about the Ukrainian side. But that scepticism vanished like a spring mist when faced with any news that had a positive spin for Russia. Eventually his shame about being proven to be a hypocritical idiot caused him to simply stop posting. Now here you are.

Do you just not feel shame?

[Makabreska]

We had another poster, back at the start of all this, who used to be sceptical about anything that sounded positive about the Ukrainian side. But that scepticism vanished like a spring mist when faced with any news that had a positive spin for Russia. Eventually his shame about being proven to be a hypocritical idiot caused him to simply stop posting. Now here you are.

Do you just not feel shame?

Missed a great opportunity to say "like a spring fog".

[Dontrike]

What I expect is a long war that will take years, or we could see Russia resort to nukes if their conscripts fail. That has been expectation since summer.

I'd like to see those sources that said Ukraine should be farther along and not just some expectations by folks.

[Makabreska]

Welp, Putler officially signs law allowing for conscription of hardcore criminals.

[XDurionX]

Welp, Putler officially signs law allowing for conscription of hardcore criminals.

This will boost morale.

"You will be deployed with child molesters and cannibals"