Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Easo]

Any insurgency would be low intensity long term URBAN and primarily organized over existing civilians communications infrastructures like cell phones and the internet, we are talking bombings and assassinations. The accuracy and counter insurgency value of signal intelligence is vastly overestimated as Afghanistan, Iraq etc have clearly demonstrated.

The Syrian Civil War is still very much ongoing, despite the Russian presence and their willingness the use blunt force tactics like bombing urban areas etc. The best Russians could do for Assad was to smash the more conventional rebel units and formations which really ended up mostly stabilizing the regime, but they haven't put down the insurgency by any measure. They are also very heavily reliant on mercenaries doing most of the fighting for them.

And frankly...when it comes to the Middle East....you can do all sorts of things that you absolutely cannot do in Europe without raising a much stronger public pushback.

It's one thing to bomb small brown children, it's an entirely different thing to bomb cute blond white kids. Yes...it's fucking appalling, nevertheless still true.

Syria is a bad example, it has been status quo for years now and war de facto has ended with Assad's victory - Turkish supported rebels are holed in the small area in north around Idlib and fanatics are hiding "under" them in a strange ceasefire. Rest belongs to the Assad or Kurds, who are not being touched only because the Turkey holds that enclave and thus is much bigger problem.

Bombings? Not that simple, you need to know what you are doing, solo missions are likely bound to fail. Assasinations? No one cares about couple dead officers or soldiers. Russia is less sensitive to losses.

Russians fucked partians in Baltics after the WW2 when there was no technological dominance and massive parts of land were basically uninhabitted. It's actually easyish - destroy the support base. Want a recent example from modern age? Tamil Tigers, very very dead/imprisoned/beaten.
Oh, and Checnya's rebels/terrorists also failed.
See, West have things like RoE's, they in general care about civilians even to the detriment of military operations (no, seriously, aside from memes and stereotypes it is like that), etc. Russians are not barbarians, but they will be much harsher than American troops in Iraq, for example. Plus you have to understand that like half of Ukraine won't even really care, literally, as long as they are left alone. And since that half is quite a bit Russian...

[jonnysensible]

Russians are not barbarians

fully expecting to see some horrible fucking war crimes in telegram in the next couple of days. Also the other shit thats goes on now (taking a soldiers phone you have killed and ringing his mum/sending corpse pictures to his family). Those wagner boys did some wild shit with a sledgehammer if i remember rightly. War is barbaric.

[Mihalik]

Russia did put down the rebels in the areas they retook, the sole reason there are portions not under Assad's control is because both Turkey and the US have troops there and have made clear they will not tolerate Assad retaking those lands, if not for that Assad would have taken back the whole country ( minus the Kurdish areas, but the Kurds aren't fighting Assad ).

Active low intensity insurgency is still happening in areas nominally controlled by the Syrian government. Including the capital. As I mentioned tho, it comes mostly in the form of bombings and targeted killings.

I think people vastly overestimate the chances of any insurgency in Ukraine if Russia conquers the country. There are many reasons why such things happen in the Middle East that do not apply in Europe.

Russia would co-opt as much of Ukrainian institutions as possible: Police forces, courts, government offices etc. That do provide essential services to the population. It's easy to talk about insurgency when you have little to lose and much to gain potentially ( many insurgents in the Middle East do so because of financial benefits after all). but when you stand to lose your pension, healthcare, your house? Yeah not gonna happen. There will always be die hards of course but it will be much more limited.

Yugoslavia/Balkans kinda disproves that notion. There's an ethnic element to this conflict that can make it much uglier than it is, and Putin has been going out of his way to emphasize the ethnic nature of this conflict. His little televised diatribe effectively denying the existence of Ukrainians as an ethnic group sure as shit didn't help, nor are all these bullshit stories they are pushing about Ukrainians engaging in genocide against the Russian population and whatnot.

[Easo]

ТАСС, [23/02/2022 21:27]
ВС Украины должны добровольно покинуть территорию ДНР и вывезти свое оружие, заявил Пушилин

The "leader of Donetsk republic" said that Ukrainian armed forces should voluntarily leave the "territory of DNR" and remove their weapons.\

We are close now...

fully expecting to see some horrible fucking war crimes in telegram in the next couple of days. Also the other shit thats goes on now (taking a soldiers phone you have killed and ringing his mum/sending corpse pictures to his family). Those wagner boys did some wild shit with a sledgehammer if i remember rightly. War is barbaric.

I expect nothing but individual excesses. Someone is going to get triggered but even Azeris generally spent the last war mostly okayish, with "just a few" episodes of cutting heads or beating PoW's.

Active low intensity insurgency is still happening in areas nominally controlled by the Syrian government. Including the capital. As I mentioned tho, it comes mostly in the form of bombings and targeted killings.


Yugoslavia/Balkans kinda disproves that notion. There's an ethnic element to this conflict that can make it much uglier than it is, and Putin has been going out of his way to emphasize the ethnic nature of this conflict. His little televised diatribe effectively denying the existence of Ukrainians as an ethnic group sure as shit didn't help, nor are all these bullshit stories they are pushing about Ukrainians engaging in genocide against the Russian population and whatnot.

The average Russian (and this will include armed forces) do not see Ukrainians as actual nazis. Well, mostly because they don't even think about Ukraine, but anyway.
As I said to Jonny, I certainly expect episodes of excess, but the average Russian soldier is not going to go and "punish" some random local.

[Mihalik]

Syria is a bad example, it has been status quo for years now and war de facto has ended with Assad's victory - Turkish supported rebels are holed in the small area in north around Idlib and fanatics are hiding "under" them in a strange ceasefire. Rest belongs to the Assad or Kurds, who are not being touched only because the Turkey holds that enclave and thus is much bigger problem.

While Russia could theoretically take over the Ukrainian state, it's highly unlikely it would be able to effectively police/enforce the western border. It's 1000% certain that weapons and training from state and non-state actors supporting the Ukrainians financially and with arms would seep through.

Russians fucked partians in Baltics after the WW2 when there was no technological dominance and massive parts of land were basically uninhabitted. It's actually easyish - destroy the support base. Want a recent example from modern age? Tamil Tigers, very very dead/imprisoned/beaten.
Oh, and Checnya's rebels/terrorists also failed.

Vastly different situation as those partisans were not getting any assistance and were geographically isolated.

See, West have things like RoE's, they in general care about civilians even to the detriment of military operations (no, seriously, aside from memes and stereotypes it is like that), etc. Russians are not barbarians, but they will be much harsher than American troops in Iraq, for example. Plus you have to understand that like half of Ukraine won't even really care, literally, as long as they are left alone. And since that half is quite a bit Russian...

Again, the harder the Russians come down on the Ukrainians the more support and sympathy they will get. Also see what I said about Putin increasingly turning this into an ethnic conflict. Those sort of things can get ugly mighty fast.

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The average Russian (and this will include armed forces) do not see Ukrainians as actual nazis. Well, mostly because they don't even think about Ukraine, but anyway.
As I said to Jonny, I certainly expect episodes of excess, but the average Russian soldier is not going to go and "punish" some random local.

No, but one of the various local Russian backed militias might just decide it's time to kill some of those dirty Ukrainian nationalists in "insert random village".

That's how ethnic conflicts get out of hand.

[Vankrys]

Investigative Committee of Russia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invest...ttee_of_Russia) "is accusing Ukrainian officials, army commanders and other people in war crimes and killing civilians in Donbas and have started criminal cases". With years of imprisonment added.
Sorry, only in Russian (you can use Youtube's autotranslate).

Fuck, Russia, if you do this, then be objective - judge every fucker from the "republics" too. Won't? Then shut the fuck up. Because, ohhh, that list would be long too...

this is only the pretext Putin needs to justify annexing the whole Ukraine.

[Easo]

While Russia could theoretically take over the Ukrainian state, it's highly unlikely it would be able to effectively police/enforce the western border. It's 1000% certain that weapons and training from state and non-state actors supporting the Ukrainians financially and with arms would seep through.

Vastly different situation as those partisans were not getting any assistance and were geographically isolated.


Again, the harder the Russians come down on the Ukrainians the more support and sympathy they will get. Also see what I said about Putin increasingly turning this into an ethnic conflict. Those sort of things can get ugly mighty fast.

No, but one of the various local Russian backed militias might just decide it's time to kill some of those dirty Ukrainian nationalists in "insert random village".

That's how ethnic conflicts get out of hand.

I am quite sure Russia can police whole Ukraine. I would not underestimate them, again, as they really need to police only the western part.

Sure, and it is not like Ukrainians would get boatloads of guns.

And I don't believe they will come down hard.

This is not really an ethnic conflict, aside from Moscow's instigations and fantasies of marginals/some asshole ultra-nationalists (both of these on both sides, have to understand that Ukraine made some, ehh, interesting choices).
Militias don't have numbers for anything big and I am 146% sure that Moscow would bring the fist down on any moron attempting to do shit. The "anti-nazi fighters" in the republics have not yet understood they are just useful idiots, nothing more.

[Shalcker]

You cant be serious. If Russia does not attack, there will be no escalation.

As far as i see Ukraine already attacks via shelling and far-righter saboteurs.

Zelensky simply calls for more bodies from reserve into the grinder.

[Zoranon]

As far as i see Ukraine already attacks via shelling and far-righter saboteurs.

Zelensky simply calls for more bodies from reserve into the grinder.

So let me see, Russia invades and occupies Crimea and supports terrorists in Eastern Ukraine but it is Ukraine who is the agressor?

I wonder, are you payed to spread Putler´s propaganda or doing it because you have been brainwashed by Russia´s media?

[jonnysensible]

far-righter saboteurs.

.

these were quite obviously fake and laughable, did u see the video of the guy having his prosthetic leg blown off and them acting like it was his real leg, or the cars they keep blowing up lmfao.

[Easo]

As far as i see Ukraine already attacks via shelling and far-righter saboteurs.

Zelensky simply calls for more bodies from reserve into the grinder.

Or they are answering shelling from "republics". Two can play this game.

Oh, and of course, the "dumb Ukrainians will just throw bodies", aha, sure. Propaganda is your whole being it seems.

[Shalcker]

So let me see, Russia invades and occupies Crimea and supports terrorists in Eastern Ukraine but it is Ukraine who is the agressor?

Russia recognized breakaway republics and prepares to defend them and restore them to "rightful" size.

It doesn't matter who "aggressor" is in this situation; if you shell republics you got to prepare for strikes in return.

I wonder, are you payed to spread Putler´s propaganda or doing it because you have been brainwashed by Russia´s media?

I've been brainwashed by Western media; the skeptic side of it.

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these were quite obviously fake and laughable, did u see the video of the guy having his prosthetic leg blown off and them acting like it was his real leg, or the cars they keep blowing up lmfao.

It doesn't matter if you see them as "laughable" if Russia will act as if it's real.

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Or they are answering shelling from "republics". Two can play this game.

"Responding" already implies non-compliance.

They aren't supposed to be in range.

[Easo]

"Responding" already implies non-compliance.

They aren't supposed to be in range.

Yes, indeed, why is LDNR artillery in range?
Two can play this game.

[jonnysensible]

It doesn't matter if you see them as "laughable" if Russia will act as if it's real.
.

https://twitter.com/jakluge/status/1496521293126066181

loooooooooooooooool

[Edge-]

https://twitter.com/jakluge/status/1496521293126066181

loooooooooooooooool

I guess the Russian film industry and special effects teams are getting a decent payday, at least. That was bad even for a movie explosion.

[Canpinter]

I guess the Russian film industry and special effects teams are getting a decent payday, at least. That was bad even for a movie explosion.

i have seen better explosions in stage plays.

https://youtu.be/9Cou1WoNe0Y?t=123

warning contains Andrew Lloyd Webber and glitter.

[Shalcker]

Yes, indeed, why is LDNR artillery in range?
Two can play this game.

Because Ukraine shells their civilian settlements and occupies their territory.

[Edge-]

Because Ukraine shells their civilian settlements and occupies their territory.

How can Ukraine occupy its own territory? I mean, isn't it literally always doing it since it's like...theirs? This would be like saying the "Russians are occupying Moscow" which like...yeah? Of course they are.

[CostinR]

How can Ukraine occupy its own territory? I mean, isn't it literally always doing it since it's like...theirs? This would be like saying the "Russians are occupying Moscow" which like...yeah? Of course they are.

Do you genuinely expect good faith posting Shalcker at this point? I know this is a political forum and some people have really firm beliefs but at this point it's a lost cause.

[Shalcker]

How can Ukraine occupy its own territory?

By force, of course. As breakaway republics do not recognize legitimacy of current Ukrainian government on their territory.

I mean, isn't it literally always doing it since it's like...theirs? This would be like saying the "Russians are occupying Moscow" which like...yeah? Of course they are.

Makes it even worse if you think they shell their own civilian settlements.