Russian invasion of Ukraine

[zorkuus]

I don't think anything short of getting absolutely buggered like Germany and Japan were post WW2, then being built back from the ground up by western powers, is going to fix a lot of their political issues.

And that's not going to happen so we have to remain steadfast and not offer them an olive branch this time. Either they continue to be a pariah state for a long time or they come to their senses on their own.

[Iphie]

And that's not going to happen so we have to remain steadfast and not offer them an olive branch this time. Either they continue to be a pariah state for a long time or they come to their senses on their own.

I know you know better than to have any hope of this happening. (even if every single Russian I personally know has been against the war since day one.)

[zorkuus]

I know you know better than to have any hope of this happening. (even if every single Russian I personally know has been against the war since day one.)

I know it won't happen. But the alternative... the west being naive fools again to offer them an olive branch must not take place. I will personally take part in organizing mass protests if any politician even suggests such a thing in my lifetime.

[YUPPIE]

so while this was mentioned before on and off, analysts have noted recently again the reason Russians refuse to surrender is that they believe if they conquer Ukraine, there will be normalcy again in their lives as the West will have no choice but to just concede given the resources they seize; if they fail, they believe they will never return to their previous way of life (i.e "normalcy" in Western brands, tech, etc).

Putin also thinks this way, which is why the Finnish president has worryingly said he's going to go on the warpath until he gets what he wants, regardless of victory being logically improbable.

[Nymrohd]

even if every single Russian I personally know has been against the war since day one

That's at least nice. The one Russian I see every day denies the Russians have killed a single civilian (and she is from Ukraine and both her children are still there though I've no idea where they might be). Heck she denies that there have been any strikes in Kyiv...

[Iphie]

That's at least nice. The one Russian I see every day denies the Russians have killed a single civilian (and she is from Ukraine and both her children are still there though I've no idea where they might be). Heck she denies that there have been any strikes in Kyiv...

Yeah, they live in Moscow and they can't get out due to not having the means. It's because of them that I do get annoyed when people say things like :"all russians support the war", and, "there are no good russians". Ya know? (note it's like 5 people anyway)

[Nymrohd]

Yeah, they live in Moscow and they can't get out due to not having the means. It's because of them that I do get annoyed when people say things like :"all russians support the war", and, "there are no good russians". Ya know? (note it's like 5 people anyway)

She doesn't live in Moscow. She lives in Greece. She has full access to Western news.

[Dontrike]

You have to wonder just how many tanks Russia has left when you hear reports of some battalions having near none left.

One of the battalions making up an "elite" Russian tank regiment waging war in Ukraine has just 10 tanks left, operated by 30 soldiers, according to Ukraine's armed forces.

The battalion of Russia's 26th Tank Regiment, which is fighting around the city of Kupiansk, in the Kharkiv region of eastern Ukraine, had 10 T-80BV main battle tanks still in "serviceable condition" as of Thursday, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine posted on Facebook on Sunday.

The rest are "destroyed or disabled," according to the General Staff, with those still in operation manned by around 30 Russian personnel.

A Russian tank battalion typically consists of approximately 40 main battle tanks, according to current affairs magazine The Diplomat. Each of the Russian tank regiments has around 93 tanks in three battalions, according to Insider.

[Logwyn]

You have to wonder just how many tanks Russia has left when you hear reports of some battalions having near none left.

I wonder what Russian production of military vehicles is. I doubt it is enough to cover losses.

[The Stormbringer]

given how the EU has already found workable gas alternatives, and gas being the only thing Russia has ever had to offer/trade, it makes you wonder if they're capable of entering the civilized world again after this war.

The generalization of Russians being barbarians is so seeped into Western culture since this happening, it's hard to imagine anyone will overlook them in any foreseeable future.

Could you elaborate on that? I haven't heard anything about them already finding 'workable gas alternatives', but I could just be missing things.

[Kallisto]

Could you elaborate on that? I haven't heard anything about them already finding 'workable gas alternatives', but I could just be missing things.

Different suppliers plus filling up storage over summer. Winter being warmer than normal helped too.

[ArcanaXVIII]

Could you elaborate on that? I haven't heard anything about them already finding 'workable gas alternatives', but I could just be missing things.

For instance Germany managed to build a LNG terminal in less than a year. They didn't even have a single one before as they didn't think having an alternative to russian gas could be a thing.

[Elder Millennial]

Could you elaborate on that? I haven't heard anything about them already finding 'workable gas alternatives', but I could just be missing things.

It's a variety of things. The extremely warm winter so far also contributes, giving more time to ramp up alternatives.

Increased storage capacity, more LNG terminals, more South to North pipelines for North African African suppliers, keeping or re-opening old coal plants in, increased energy efficiency, increased domestic production where available etc.

It's not just 1 thing. Current natural gas prices are around pre war levels.

[jonnysensible]

Could you elaborate on that? I haven't heard anything about them already finding 'workable gas alternatives', but I could just be missing things.

they went from one dicator Putin to another Aliyev

[The Stormbringer]

Thanks for the info! Hopefully they'll continue to push for nuclear/green power after all of this...

[YUPPIE]

I wouldn't know about that. The Qatar minister today acknowledged Russia, stating while it's bad now, the world will inevitably "forgive and forget" and do business again - citing past atrocities as an example.

[Gaidax]

so while this was mentioned before on and off, analysts have noted recently again the reason Russians refuse to surrender is that they believe if they conquer Ukraine, there will be normalcy again in their lives as the West will have no choice but to just concede given the resources they seize; if they fail, they believe they will never return to their previous way of life (i.e "normalcy" in Western brands, tech, etc).

Putin also thinks this way, which is why the Finnish president has worryingly said he's going to go on the warpath until he gets what he wants, regardless of victory being logically improbable.

Nonsense.

Putin knows that if he gets no results he will get hanged by the balls on the Red Square. He also knows that this shit is unwinnable - the momentum is long gone and at most he will have years of stalemate, except that he does not have years because clouds are gathering above him domestically.

So plan B he will go for - is going to be a loyalist successor that will on the one hand keep Putin out of trouble in retirement and on the other hand will be more palatable to cut some sort of deal with the West/Ukraine.

And he will do it within a year, because 2024 is elections and that is a huge risk for him, because faking results can go only so far before people actually are on the streets with pitchforks in hands.

[Crispin]

so while this was mentioned before on and off, analysts have noted recently again the reason Russians refuse to surrender is that they believe if they conquer Ukraine, there will be normalcy again in their lives as the West will have no choice but to just concede given the resources they seize; if they fail, they believe they will never return to their previous way of life (i.e "normalcy" in Western brands, tech, etc).

Putin also thinks this way, which is why the Finnish president has worryingly said he's going to go on the warpath until he gets what he wants, regardless of victory being logically improbable.

Where did you read that analysis that you refere to in the beginning?

- - - Updated - - -

I wouldn't know about that. The Qatar minister today acknowledged Russia, stating while it's bad now, the world will inevitably "forgive and forget" and do business again - citing past atrocities as an example.

We will eventually, could be 5 years, could be 80 years.

[Iphie]

I wouldn't know about that. The Qatar minister today acknowledged Russia, stating while it's bad now, the world will inevitably "forgive and forget" and do business again - citing past atrocities as an example.

Obviously, but not for a long time. Eventually everything will be..."normalized"...that is to say, an uneasy peace will exist until the current generations are extinct and then real normalization can occur. If russia is contrite and pays reparations it might go quicker.

[Iliena]

Russia's Wagner Group commander requests Norway asylum.

A former commander with the Russian paramilitary Wagner Group has claimed asylum in Norway after deserting from the mercenary outfit.

Andrey Medvedev, 26, crossed the border into Norway last Friday, where he was detained by border guards.

He is currently being held in the Oslo area where he faces charges of illegal entry to Norway, his lawyer Brynjulf Risnes told the BBC.

Mr Risnes said his client left Wagner after witnessing war crimes in Ukraine.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64296979

Hope he squeals like a pig!