Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Logwyn]

can Russia hypothetically (I mean Turkey is NATO after all) take on Turkey in a conventional (no nukes, etc) military skirmish like they're engaging in with Ukraine?

Russia would have to go through Georgia/Armenia or Romania/Bulgaria to go straight land war without having to ship troops through the Black Sea for an amphibious landing in Turkey. I doubt any of the above would agree to let Russia do this. I doubt that Russia could create a bridge head then control a port then keep it repaired for anything else.

So maybe not at this point. That's throwing out the NATO factor. Then they are getting smacked around by NATO as well.

SO Hard NO.

[Gabriel]

A bigger question is..."How does NATO get Turkey to stop being fucking dipshits and play ball on the Scandinavian expansion." Erdogan is really milking this whole situation for every cent worth of international attention by being a pain in the ass.

There is no way to please Erdogan, that doesn't involve selling your soul, so fuck it.

[Corvus]

Turkey has a really big military. While it may not be as professional as most European ones and have issues with political appointments by Erdogan, it's still superior to the russian rabble. Plus it has modern western equipment that Ukraine doesn't.

- - - Updated - - -

Poland says they have officially asked Germany for a re-export licence to send Leopards to Ukraine.

Only question now is how long Scholz takes to come to a decision.

[Lahis]

A bigger question is..."How does NATO get Turkey to stop being fucking dipshits and play ball on the Scandinavian expansion." Erdogan is really milking this whole situation for every cent worth of international attention by being a pain in the ass.

Turkey is just half of the problem. Hungary is still really butthurt towards Finland since the latter dared to criticize their dictator's distaste for human rights.

[Iphie]

Turkey is just half of the problem. Hungary is still really butthurt towards Finland since the latter dared to criticize their dictator's distaste for human rights.

Myeah, but Hungary promised to ratify next month so we'll see how that pans out.

[Lahis]

Myeah, but Hungary promised to ratify next month so we'll see how that pans out.

They have promised to ratify it next month since August.

[Iphie]

This Reddit post (Reddit itself is not a source, btw, always link to the actual article) has been removed for whatever reason. Just FYI.

Here's the link he took from my post a bit up:

https://www.france24.com/en/live-new...norwegian-army

[YUPPIE]

Remember when Putin screamed it was time for a new world order? Well, South Africa has sworn allegiance to that in a departure from its previous claims

On the first day of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year, the South African government demanded an immediate Russian withdrawal. It warned that the Russian military action would cause “human suffering and destruction” and huge damage to the global economy. But since then, South Africa has refused to repeat this criticism, instead choosing to abstain in UN votes, while calling for dialogue and negotiations.

On Monday, when asked whether she had repeated any of her original criticism to the Russian foreign minister, Ms. Pandor said she would seem “quite simplistic and infantile” if she did so – “given the massive transfer of arms” to Ukraine from its allies.

She said her talks with Mr. Lavrov were “wonderful” and she described South Africa as a friend of Russia with a strengthening relationship. Mr. Lavrov, for his part, had only praise for South Africa and its stand on global issues.

Funny how this comes on the heels of their veiled threat to Turkey and you people being so adamant that they would be crushed like insects. Now they have South Africa to potentially bolster their numbers and resources. Although, to be fair, months ago I did list South Africa as one of Russia's "new world order" allies next to Iran and NK even though that was when it felt like Africa was more coerced into an alliance than agreeing to it.

[Secret Arcade]

Seems Germany finally decided not only to allow others to send Leopard 2s but to send some of their own too.

Reuters

[Saradain]

Oh no, whatever will we do, if african nations are dumb enough to think Russia is a friend, not an exploiter. With South Africa, Russia will surely be unstoppable...

Meanwhile in reality:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...el-2023-01-24/

Germany to send Leopard tanks to Kyiv, allow others to do so

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has decided to send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine and allow other countries such as Poland to do so while the U.S. may supply Abrams tanks, magazine Spiegel reported on Tuesday.

Your move, Putin.

[YUPPIE]

The state of Africa is polarizing since Morocco also sent tanks to Ukraine instead

Also, the news of Scholz giving in is a huge fucking deal, especially after his reluctance and the Kremlin openly threatening Germany over the tanks. I will be vigilant in seeing what their response is, unless they already have made a statement/vow.

[jonnysensible]

The state of Africa is polarizing since Morocco also sent tanks to Ukraine instead

Also, the news of Scholz giving in is a huge fucking deal, especially after his reluctance and the Kremlin openly threatening Germany over the tanks. I will be vigilant in seeing what their response is, unless they already have made a statement/vow.

do you mean continent of Africa?

its literally morocco not really polarizing is it.

Good that the Germans are done talking themselves into doing the right thing. Putin will do fuck all hes pulled all of his levers already.

[Iphie]

Oh no, whatever will we do, if african nations are dumb enough to think Russia is a friend, not an exploiter. With South Africa, Russia will surely be unstoppable...

Meanwhile in reality:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...el-2023-01-24/



Your move, Putin.

Hurry up though pooty, the US is joining in the gift giving fun.

[Saradain]

Hurry up though pooty, the US is joining in the gift giving fun.

So is Poland, now that Germany approved the idea of re-exporting Leopards! And apparently scandinavian nations as well, including Finland!

2023 is going to look great at some point.

[YUPPIE]

do you mean continent of Africa?

its literally morocco not really polarizing is it.

Good that the Germans are done talking themselves into doing the right thing. Putin will do fuck all hes pulled all of his levers already.

I meant the state of African affairs. They go back and forth often so it's hard to tell how much of it swears allegiance to Putin.

Also

"Putin will do fuck all"

Never underestimate him given his track record. Note that doesn't mean competency, I just mean what abhorrent levers he might pull since you believe he's exhausted all of them.

[jonnysensible]

I meant the state of African affairs. They go back and forth often so it's hard to tell how much of it swears allegiance to Putin.

Also

"Putin will do fuck all"

Never underestimate him given his track record. Note that doesn't mean competency, I just mean what abhorrent levers he might pull since you believe he's exhausted all of them.

whats he got left? sending more mobiks to their death?

[Huehuecoyotl]

I meant the state of African affairs. They go back and forth often so it's hard to tell how much of it swears allegiance to Putin.

Also

"Putin will do fuck all"

Never underestimate him given his track record. Note that doesn't mean competency, I just mean what abhorrent levers he might pull since you believe he's exhausted all of them.

"Say the line Bart!"

Go on, you know you want to.

[Corvus]

Good to see the Leopards have been freed to stalk their traditional prey. And there is talk of 40-50 Abrams as well. All these different weapon systems are going to be hard to keep supplied, maintained etc but you'd rather have that problem than not have tanks.

And with he tank issue done with for now, there is talk that discussions about new fighters are being worked on. Could we hear about F16s soon?

[kaid]

Good to see the Leopards have been freed to stalk their traditional prey. And there is talk of 40-50 Abrams as well. All these different weapon systems are going to be hard to keep supplied, maintained etc but you'd rather have that problem than not have tanks.

And with he tank issue done with for now, there is talk that discussions about new fighters are being worked on. Could we hear about F16s soon?

Basically they are getting a more and more full mix of standard nato military equipment. In any kind of nato operation abrams fighting alongside leopards would likely be pretty normal.

[Veggie50]

In before yuppie with “but ze nukez!”.

I more and more doubt Russia’s nuclear capabilities. Not because they haven’t pushed that big red button, but because Russia sucks at maintenance.

Most nukes use tritium to start the reaction. Tritium has a 12.5 year halflife. Every 10-20 years it needs to be replaced, or the nuke becomes worthless.

Tritium is freaking expensive, and it would be SO easy for some aparachik to go “well hmmmm… i just got 10 billion to maintain these warheads that we’re never gonna use, ooooooor….”

Boom, 200 meter yacht.

Considering how the rest of Russias defense maintenance has gone… yea……..

Expanding just a bit; it might even be government policy not to maintain them. America committed to the space race partly to bankrupt the USSR. Russia claiming they have working nukes does:

1) serve as a HUGE deterrent because nobody wanna find out if the big stick is real.

2) move the USA to spend billions upon billions to maintain their stock.