Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Corvus]

everything hinges on the battle upcoming in Ukraine.

It really doesn't.

The Dneiper lies between the lands russia occupies and the Moldovian border, and requires going through Kherson and Odessa to get there. The problem is that russia no longer has the means to cross the Dneiper again after retreating across it. The bridges are gone and russia has proven inept at river crossings, even ones much, much smaller than the Dneiper.

The best russia can do with its poorly trained, poorly equipped hordes is take a small amount of ground for terrible losses. They are not going to get near Moldova.

[Iphie]

It really doesn't.

The Dneiper lies between the lands russia occupies and the Moldovian border, and requires going through Kherson and Odessa to get there. The problem is that russia no longer has the means to cross the Dneiper again after retreating across it. The bridges are gone and russia has proven inept at river crossings, even ones much, much smaller than the Dneiper.

The best russia can do with its poorly trained, poorly equipped hordes is take a small amount of ground for terrible losses. They are not going to get near Moldova.

He's been told this several times now, he just refuses to listen. Russia could try via Odesa but that would involve an amphibious assault and I don't think they'll try that given that Odesa is, more or less, under protection of the grain deal guarantees and that Ukraine isn't stupid enough to let their defenses down there anyway. Planes won't cut it either as Ukraine will just take them out as best they can.

[Huehuecoyotl]

Israel is supporting Ukraine all of a sudden (compared to their neutrality before) likely because Iran, now officially stating Israel was behind the attacks on their drone factories, swore vengeance on them.

But Israel is a nuclear power. You've said repeatedly that you can't threaten a nuclear power because they have nukes. Or at least you've said that about Russia. Why do Russia's nukes make them immune to threats, but Israel's nukes don't?

Also, why do you keep ignoring this question?

[Elder Millennial]

There is a reason we keep mentioning russian demographics and how even before this it was in dire straits.

The dating scene in Russia would certainly make an interesting social studies experiment in the coming years if accurate data collection becomes possible.

[Gabriel]

The dating scene in Russia would certainly make an interesting social studies experiment in the coming years if accurate data collection becomes possible.

If by dating scene you mean buying russian brides for a box of pantyhose, then yes, it will certainly be interesting.

[Corvus]

Not sure you'd really want a russian bride given their attitudes.

The Chinese have millions of excess men though so you may see a lot of desperate russian women ending up in China.

[Lahis]

Yeah, russia's demographics are going to go from merely dire to catastrophic.

Good. The bigger the hit, the better for the rest of the world.

[zealo]

Russia won't try shit with Moldova any time soon, the people they have in that Transnistria pocket are much more useful to them at present in a sorta Fleet In Being sense but on land, than actually provoking anything ultimately futile that necessitates a forceful response.

[Poopymonster]

Not sure you'd really want a russian bride given their attitudes.

The Chinese have millions of excess men though so you may see a lot of desperate russian women ending up in China.

You can get the new Military Grade Russian Brides.
They are amputees, 50% off.

[YUPPIE]

I think you people should simply understand the stakes of the upcoming battle. Let me visualize

Russia is sending 500k troops to fight when their estimated fatality count is only somewhere 180k after a year. Zelenksy thought it'd only be 300k, as he stated, but he estimated it to be that number now at the border. This illustrates how serious they are about this blitzkrieg. A few outcomes may happen

1) if Russia wins, we're all fucked.

2) if Russia loses, it will have no capacity to perform a major offensive in any foreseeable future. 500k dead, Ukraine gets better weapons and rebuilds itself. It also declares total victory pre-emptively. Russia will not, however, concede defeat, and this is where things will get ominous.

So yeah, that's why I consider what Russia is plotting to be their final outing and last major offensive. And in either scenario, it's going to be rough for the world

[Iphie]

I think you people should simply understand the stakes of the upcoming battle. Let me visualize

Russia is sending 500k troops to fight when their estimated fatality count is only somewhere 180k after a year. Zelenksy thought it'd only be 300k, as he stated, but he estimated it to be that number now at the border. This illustrates how serious they are about this blitzkrieg. A few outcomes may happen

1) if Russia wins, we're all fucked.

2) if Russia loses, it will have no capacity to perform a major offensive in any foreseeable future. 500k dead, Ukraine gets better weapons and rebuilds itself. It also declares total victory pre-emptively. Russia will not, however, concede defeat, and this is where things will get ominous.

So yeah, that's why I consider what Russia is plotting to be their final outing and last major offensive. And in either scenario, it's going to be rough for the world

Bruh, this is not a blitzkrieg. It might have been in the first week or two but that term has not applied in a long time. Big offensive, yeah, sure, Blitzkrieg, no

[YUPPIE]

Bruh, this is not a blitzkrieg. It might have been in the first week or two but that term has not applied in a long time. Big offensive, yeah, sure, Blitzkrieg, no

Yes, it will be a blitzkrieg. I did not say that because of sensationalism or hyperbole. Ukrainian officials have already believe (and I cited it more than once in the coming months) Russia will very likely attempt what they did at the beginning in this renewed offensive.

As brazen as it sounds to try to blitz Kyiv, I think the Russians know the intensity of Ukraine's defense systems - which are escalating and becoming more advanced by the week - are too much to play the slow game now. They have no chance in trying to grind this out. Thus, they will try to go for a decisive all-or-nothing victory by hurling 500k people and missiles and EVERYTHING else all at once at the heart of Ukraine.

Russia believes if they can take out Zelenksy, they will win. That's their only objective.

[Yunru]

I think you people should simply understand the stakes of the upcoming battle. Let me visualize

Russia is sending 500k troops to fight when their estimated fatality count is only somewhere 180k after a year. Zelenksy thought it'd only be 300k, as he stated, but he estimated it to be that number now at the border. This illustrates how serious they are about this blitzkrieg. A few outcomes may happen

1) if Russia wins, we're all fucked.

2) if Russia loses, it will have no capacity to perform a major offensive in any foreseeable future. 500k dead, Ukraine gets better weapons and rebuilds itself. It also declares total victory pre-emptively. Russia will not, however, concede defeat, and this is where things will get ominous.

So yeah, that's why I consider what Russia is plotting to be their final outing and last major offensive. And in either scenario, it's going to be rough for the world

Russa doesnt have 500k units. At best they got 100k. They lack gear to give to every soldier. Unless they send them into ww2 style with one guy with a gun and one with no gun
You belive their propaganda to much.

Also do a math cost if one truck can carry 16 soldiers, how many would it take to get soldiers to a front and how much will it cost and also how many working trucks they have. But if those soldiers are on feet, you gota calculate how much food/water they will eat/drink to even reach the frontline and how long can they last with their suppys.
Putin logistics are totaly messy right now and there is no way he can send 500k soldiers.

Think Yuppie think. (maybe i should link you the perun logistic video)

[YUPPIE]

Russa doesnt have 500k units. At best they got 100k. They lack gear to give to every soldier. Unless they send them into ww2 style with one guy with a gun and one with no gun
You belive their propaganda to much.

Also do a math cost if one truck can carry 16 soldiers, how many would it take to get soldiers to a front and how much will it cost and also how many working trucks they have. But if those soldiers are on feet, you gota calculate how much food/water they will eat/drink to even reach the frontline and how long can they last with their suppys.
Putin logistics are totaly messy right now and there is no way he can send 500k soldiers.

Think Yuppie think. (maybe i should link you the perun logistic video)

Here's what a Ukrainian commander thinks of this impending offensive. While he predictably thinks Russia is going to lose, he does point out logistics and suggest this will be the end as well pretty much; the end, as in, when this fails, they won't be able to enact a similar offensive again.

Andrii Cherniak, Representative of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, told the Kyiv Post on 1 February in an interview that Russian President Vladimir Putin had ordered the Russian military to capture all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts by March 2023. Cherniak also stated that Russian forces are redeploying additional unspecified assault groups, units, weapons, and military equipment to unspecified areas in the east of Ukraine.

"Putin may have overestimated the Russian military’s own capabilities again. ISW has not observed any evidence that Russian forces have restored sufficient combat power to defeat Ukraine’s forces in east of Ukraine and capture over 11,300 square kilometres of unoccupied Donetsk Oblast (over 42 percent of Donetsk Oblast’s total area) before March as Putin reportedly ordered," ISW emphasised.

According to the ISW’s preliminary assessments, a major Russian offensive before April 2023 would likely prematurely culminate during the April spring rain season before achieving operationally significant effects.

"Russian forces’ culmination could then generate favourable conditions for Ukrainian forces to exploit in their own late spring or summer 2023 counteroffensive after incorporating Western tank deliveries," a report of ISW said.

[Gabriel]

Yes, it will be a blitzkrieg. I did not say that because of sensationalism or hyperbole. Ukrainian officials have already believe (and I cited it more than once in the coming months) Russia will very likely attempt what they did at the beginning in this renewed offensive.

As brazen as it sounds to try to blitz Kyiv, I think the Russians know the intensity of Ukraine's defense systems - which are escalating and becoming more advanced by the week - are too much to play the slow game now. They have no chance in trying to grind this out. Thus, they will try to go for a decisive all-or-nothing victory by hurling 500k people and missiles and EVERYTHING else all at once at the heart of Ukraine.

With what fucking vehicles?

Russia believes if they can take out Zelenksy, they will win. That's their only objective.

As always, it is a massive projection of how russians view their own country. Putin is the only thing that matters in russia, so russians think that all other countries operate under the same premise.

[YUPPIE]

As always, it is a massive projection of how russians view their own country. Putin is the only thing that matters in russia, so russians think that all other countries operate under the same premise.

I mean you saw the Kremlin docs, right? The ones for the initial invasion? They thought after killing Zelenksy, the Ukrainians would be demoralized and then it'd be easy street. That's still what they think will get them the win.

As for vehicles to push on, I'm not good at those logistics (i.e, talking military tech, jargob, etc) so, sorry. I just assume they'll use tanks and helicopters, don't know what else you'd think they would use.

[Saradain]

I mean you saw the Kremlin docs, right? The ones for the initial invasion? They thought after killing Zelenksy, the Ukrainians would be demoralized and then it'd be easy street. That's still what they think will get them the win.

As for vehicles to push on, I'm not good at those logistics (i.e, talking military tech, jargob, etc) so, sorry. I just assume they'll use tanks and helicopters, don't know what else you'd think they would use.

And how do you expect 500k zerglings to get to gates of Kyiv? Walking without equipment, vehicles, hope?

All the way while HIMARS choir is going to sing the song of suffering and death on them?

You truly believe Russia has any chance of even starting this final doomsday assault just to kill Zelensky?

Good luck keeping that morale when at this rate of final assaults Russia is going to use 1 million orclings to kill 1 guy...

[YUPPIE]

You truly believe Russia has any chance of even starting this final doomsday assault just to kill Zelensky?

No, but the fact they're even attempting such a massive "revenge" (Zelenksy's term) offensive like this more importantly illustrates they certainly believe they have a chance at this working out for them.

We'll just have to wait and see how it plays out.

[Iphie]

With what fucking vehicles?



As always, it is a massive projection of how russians view their own country. Putin is the only thing that matters in russia, so russians think that all other countries operate under the same premise.

As long as they have legs they can get to Kyiv, what do you think they are? Soft-bodied westerners?...Yeah no, even if they have the vehicles St. Javelin, Lady HIMARS and Granny Molotov cocktail will have their say. (maybe aunty Molotov Breadbasket will be making an appearance as well.)

[diller]

I think you people should simply understand the stakes of the upcoming battle. Let me visualize

Please stop talking....