Russian invasion of Ukraine

[YUPPIE]

Bruh, this is not a blitzkrieg. It might have been in the first week or two but that term has not applied in a long time. Big offensive, yeah, sure, Blitzkrieg, no

Yes, it will be a blitzkrieg. I did not say that because of sensationalism or hyperbole. Ukrainian officials have already believe (and I cited it more than once in the coming months) Russia will very likely attempt what they did at the beginning in this renewed offensive.

As brazen as it sounds to try to blitz Kyiv, I think the Russians know the intensity of Ukraine's defense systems - which are escalating and becoming more advanced by the week - are too much to play the slow game now. They have no chance in trying to grind this out. Thus, they will try to go for a decisive all-or-nothing victory by hurling 500k people and missiles and EVERYTHING else all at once at the heart of Ukraine.

Russia believes if they can take out Zelenksy, they will win. That's their only objective.

[Yunru]

I think you people should simply understand the stakes of the upcoming battle. Let me visualize

Russia is sending 500k troops to fight when their estimated fatality count is only somewhere 180k after a year. Zelenksy thought it'd only be 300k, as he stated, but he estimated it to be that number now at the border. This illustrates how serious they are about this blitzkrieg. A few outcomes may happen

1) if Russia wins, we're all fucked.

2) if Russia loses, it will have no capacity to perform a major offensive in any foreseeable future. 500k dead, Ukraine gets better weapons and rebuilds itself. It also declares total victory pre-emptively. Russia will not, however, concede defeat, and this is where things will get ominous.

So yeah, that's why I consider what Russia is plotting to be their final outing and last major offensive. And in either scenario, it's going to be rough for the world

Russa doesnt have 500k units. At best they got 100k. They lack gear to give to every soldier. Unless they send them into ww2 style with one guy with a gun and one with no gun
You belive their propaganda to much.

Also do a math cost if one truck can carry 16 soldiers, how many would it take to get soldiers to a front and how much will it cost and also how many working trucks they have. But if those soldiers are on feet, you gota calculate how much food/water they will eat/drink to even reach the frontline and how long can they last with their suppys.
Putin logistics are totaly messy right now and there is no way he can send 500k soldiers.

Think Yuppie think. (maybe i should link you the perun logistic video)

[YUPPIE]

Russa doesnt have 500k units. At best they got 100k. They lack gear to give to every soldier. Unless they send them into ww2 style with one guy with a gun and one with no gun
You belive their propaganda to much.

Also do a math cost if one truck can carry 16 soldiers, how many would it take to get soldiers to a front and how much will it cost and also how many working trucks they have. But if those soldiers are on feet, you gota calculate how much food/water they will eat/drink to even reach the frontline and how long can they last with their suppys.
Putin logistics are totaly messy right now and there is no way he can send 500k soldiers.

Think Yuppie think. (maybe i should link you the perun logistic video)

Here's what a Ukrainian commander thinks of this impending offensive. While he predictably thinks Russia is going to lose, he does point out logistics and suggest this will be the end as well pretty much; the end, as in, when this fails, they won't be able to enact a similar offensive again.

Andrii Cherniak, Representative of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, told the Kyiv Post on 1 February in an interview that Russian President Vladimir Putin had ordered the Russian military to capture all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts by March 2023. Cherniak also stated that Russian forces are redeploying additional unspecified assault groups, units, weapons, and military equipment to unspecified areas in the east of Ukraine.

"Putin may have overestimated the Russian military’s own capabilities again. ISW has not observed any evidence that Russian forces have restored sufficient combat power to defeat Ukraine’s forces in east of Ukraine and capture over 11,300 square kilometres of unoccupied Donetsk Oblast (over 42 percent of Donetsk Oblast’s total area) before March as Putin reportedly ordered," ISW emphasised.

According to the ISW’s preliminary assessments, a major Russian offensive before April 2023 would likely prematurely culminate during the April spring rain season before achieving operationally significant effects.

"Russian forces’ culmination could then generate favourable conditions for Ukrainian forces to exploit in their own late spring or summer 2023 counteroffensive after incorporating Western tank deliveries," a report of ISW said.

[Gabriel]

Yes, it will be a blitzkrieg. I did not say that because of sensationalism or hyperbole. Ukrainian officials have already believe (and I cited it more than once in the coming months) Russia will very likely attempt what they did at the beginning in this renewed offensive.

As brazen as it sounds to try to blitz Kyiv, I think the Russians know the intensity of Ukraine's defense systems - which are escalating and becoming more advanced by the week - are too much to play the slow game now. They have no chance in trying to grind this out. Thus, they will try to go for a decisive all-or-nothing victory by hurling 500k people and missiles and EVERYTHING else all at once at the heart of Ukraine.

With what fucking vehicles?

Russia believes if they can take out Zelenksy, they will win. That's their only objective.

As always, it is a massive projection of how russians view their own country. Putin is the only thing that matters in russia, so russians think that all other countries operate under the same premise.

[YUPPIE]

As always, it is a massive projection of how russians view their own country. Putin is the only thing that matters in russia, so russians think that all other countries operate under the same premise.

I mean you saw the Kremlin docs, right? The ones for the initial invasion? They thought after killing Zelenksy, the Ukrainians would be demoralized and then it'd be easy street. That's still what they think will get them the win.

As for vehicles to push on, I'm not good at those logistics (i.e, talking military tech, jargob, etc) so, sorry. I just assume they'll use tanks and helicopters, don't know what else you'd think they would use.

[Saradain]

I mean you saw the Kremlin docs, right? The ones for the initial invasion? They thought after killing Zelenksy, the Ukrainians would be demoralized and then it'd be easy street. That's still what they think will get them the win.

As for vehicles to push on, I'm not good at those logistics (i.e, talking military tech, jargob, etc) so, sorry. I just assume they'll use tanks and helicopters, don't know what else you'd think they would use.

And how do you expect 500k zerglings to get to gates of Kyiv? Walking without equipment, vehicles, hope?

All the way while HIMARS choir is going to sing the song of suffering and death on them?

You truly believe Russia has any chance of even starting this final doomsday assault just to kill Zelensky?

Good luck keeping that morale when at this rate of final assaults Russia is going to use 1 million orclings to kill 1 guy...

[YUPPIE]

You truly believe Russia has any chance of even starting this final doomsday assault just to kill Zelensky?

No, but the fact they're even attempting such a massive "revenge" (Zelenksy's term) offensive like this more importantly illustrates they certainly believe they have a chance at this working out for them.

We'll just have to wait and see how it plays out.

[Iphie]

With what fucking vehicles?



As always, it is a massive projection of how russians view their own country. Putin is the only thing that matters in russia, so russians think that all other countries operate under the same premise.

As long as they have legs they can get to Kyiv, what do you think they are? Soft-bodied westerners?...Yeah no, even if they have the vehicles St. Javelin, Lady HIMARS and Granny Molotov cocktail will have their say. (maybe aunty Molotov Breadbasket will be making an appearance as well.)

[diller]

I think you people should simply understand the stakes of the upcoming battle. Let me visualize

Please stop talking....

[zealo]

It is far too late for Russia taking out Zelensky to have a positive effect on the war for Russia, he’d become a martyr further bolstering resolve to resist with what he’s come to mean to Ukrainians.

[YUPPIE]

It is far too late for Russia taking out Zelensky to have a positive effect on the war for Russia, he’d become a martyr further bolstering resolve to resist with what he’s come to mean to Ukrainians.

Well, taking out Zelenksy also means seizing Kyiv since of course he's always there. If Kyiv falls, then as grim as this is to say, don't you think it's decisively over?

That's also why Russians are obsessed with Kyiv. It's the heart of the military enemy.

[Joszef Kiprich]

Well Russia set a record for the slowest blitzkrieg ever. What are we on now? Day 350 of the three day war?

[YUPPIE]

Well Russia set a record for the slowest blitzkrieg ever. What are we on now? Day 350 of the three day war?

They're late or never attempted a blitzkrieg of this scale up to now since the beginning because they thought they could wage a conventional war. Well, we've seen what's become of that.

So since they can't grind it out, they're trying something brash for a decisive victory. You even saw Zelenksy's reaction in how he was surprised they were even attempting what they're planning now.

[Gabriel]

I mean you saw the Kremlin docs, right? The ones for the initial invasion? They thought after killing Zelenksy, the Ukrainians would be demoralized and then it'd be easy street. That's still what they think will get them the win.

As for vehicles to push on, I'm not good at those logistics (i.e, talking military tech, jargob, etc) so, sorry. I just assume they'll use tanks and helicopters, don't know what else you'd think they would use.

Do you think russia has infinite tanks and helicopters and trucks? Do you think they spawn in their base for free?

They've lost so many trucks that they use school busses to transport ammo to their frontline. If they do a zerg rush, it will be literally a wave of drunk mobiks on foot. The biggest problem for Ukraine in thwarting their attack will be how to afterwards rehabilitate their soldiers that have PTSD from racking up kill counts in the three digit numbers.

[Huehuecoyotl]

Do you think russia has infinite tanks and helicopters and trucks? Do you think they spawn in their base for free?

They've lost so many trucks that they use school busses to transport ammo to their frontline. If they do a zerg rush, it will be literally a wave of drunk mobiks on foot. The biggest problem for Ukraine in thwarting their attack will be how to afterwards rehabilitate their soldiers that have PTSD from racking up kill counts in the three digit numbers.

Comrade Legislav hits a school bus carrying troops with a HIMAR. Comrade Gimlov throws him a look; "That still only counts as one".

[YUPPIE]

Do you think russia has infinite tanks and helicopters and trucks? Do you think they spawn in their base for free?

They've lost so many trucks that they use school busses to transport ammo to their frontline. If they do a zerg rush, it will be literally a wave of drunk mobiks on foot. The biggest problem for Ukraine in thwarting their attack will be how to afterwards rehabilitate their soldiers that have PTSD from racking up kill counts in the three digit numbers.

Something I want to ask you in particular:

Are you genuinely surprised by Russians sending thousands to their deaths for even incremental gains? I've noticed some commentators here are in disbelief they would do something so seemingly stupid, but we've seen the war progress and how Russians have already traded thousands of their lives to gain even a little new foothold.

[Gabriel]

Something I want to ask you in particular:

Are you genuinely surprised by Russians sending thousands to their deaths for even incremental gains? I've noticed some commentators here are in disbelief they would do something so seemingly stupid, but we've seen the war progress and how Russians have already traded thousands of their lives to gain even a little new foothold.

No? Russian military tactics have always consisted of getting their own troops killed until the enemy starts feeling sorry for them.

I've never doubted that Putin will try something as incredibly stupid as throwing half a million untrained drunks at Ukraine. I'm just not shitting my pants because of high numbers because I know just how fucking bad the russians are at warfare. Like I've said many times before; there is a good reason the Finnish expression for fucking something up really bad directly translates into "doing it the russian way" in English.

[ghotihook]

No? Russian military tactics have always consisted of getting their own troops killed until the enemy starts feeling sorry for them.

I've never doubted that Putin will try something as incredibly stupid as throwing half a million untrained drunks at Ukraine. I'm just not shitting my pants because of high numbers because I know just how fucking bad the russians are at warfare. Like I've said many times before; there is a good reason the Finnish expression for fucking something up really bad directly translates into "doing it the russian way" in English.

That's actually pretty hilarious.

[Saradain]

That's actually pretty hilarious.

And it is beautiful.

To "ryssä" it up, or "ryssiä".

A slur and a descriptive saying in one!

[YUPPIE]

No? Russian military tactics have always consisted of getting their own troops killed until the enemy starts feeling sorry for them.

I've never doubted that Putin will try something as incredibly stupid as throwing half a million untrained drunks at Ukraine. I'm just not shitting my pants because of high numbers because I know just how fucking bad the russians are at warfare. Like I've said many times before; there is a good reason the Finnish expression for fucking something up really bad directly translates into "doing it the russian way" in English.

well then that's that.

Keep in mind the Russians are still in the phase of amassing at the border ATM. When the offensive begins, we will see how it goes. Right now it's all just speculative on how the battle will go.