Russian invasion of Ukraine

[YUPPIE]

Cuba sending manpower to fight for Russia (not in ENG).

[Jastall]

That is THE problem, that US is only beginning to deal with it here and now, where they should have been doing it a frikkin' decade ago.

And don't get me started about Europe.

It's like code red, they literally need to slash their military budget by 20% and put all that money into tech manufacturing now. Because Taiwan and China won't be there forever as a trade partner for tech.

All this is true, but it doesn't change the fact that for another generation at least, Taiwan is absolutely critical to American interests- arguably the most strategic location that isn't mainland America itself, due to the double whammy of being the world's tech factory and being perfectly placed to curtail China's power projection in the area. I strongly doubt direct action against Taiwan will be met with sternly worded letters. If the Chinese believed that they'd have started to move on the island, and produce means to invade it, a long time ago, rather than bark at it and move their ships nearby pretending anyone is impressed.


Anyway, the thread is about Ukraine and how it was also gravely underestimated by the entire world, especially the local antagonistic dictatorship who thought it would be an easy grab and that Western support is something they can handwave away.

[ghotihook]

All this is true, but it doesn't change the fact that for another generation at least, Taiwan is absolutely critical to American interests- arguably the most strategic location that isn't mainland America itself, due to the double whammy of being the world's tech factory and being perfectly placed to curtail China's power projection in the area. I strongly doubt direct action against Taiwan will be met with sternly worded letters. If the Chinese believed that they'd have started to move on the island, and produce means to invade it, a long time ago, rather than bark at it and move their ships nearby pretending anyone is impressed.


Anyway, the thread is about Ukraine and how it was also gravely underestimated by the entire world, especially the local antagonistic dictatorship who thought it would be an easy grab and that Western support is something they can handwave away.

This exactly correct. Nobody will touch Taiwan until the US doesn't require it anymore. I fear for them, if/when we are no longer reliant on TSMC.

[Teriz]

Cuba sending manpower to fight for Russia (not in ENG).

Just sending more people to the meat grinder.

I hope Putin is dragged through the streets when this is over.

[YUPPIE]

Just sending more people to the meat grinder.

I hope Putin is dragged through the streets when this is over.

While Cuba has always been a dangerous enemy of the West, this cements Cuba is in fact one of Russia's militaristic benefactors so it's interesting.

So China, Iran, North Korea, Syria, India, and Cuba.

[Edge-]

While Cuba has always been a dangerous enemy of the West

They've been what now?

[Benggaul]

They've been what now?

Guaranteed it's just because they've heard "Cuban Missile Crisis" and are basing everything off of that.

[Jastall]

This exactly correct. Nobody will touch Taiwan until the US doesn't require it anymore. I fear for them, if/when we are no longer reliant on TSMC.

Even when they are, which is many years away IMO, the island is still a great thorn on the side of America's greatest geopolitical rival. Especially now that Russia went ahead and shot itself in the foot for the second time in thirty years, China is USA's only real competition in the field of hegemonies. America has every interest in stopping them from expanding their influence and controlling access to the Sea of China and its surroundings, not to mention that even if the USA isn't dependant on TSMC, they would still want to deny exclusivity to this crucial resource to their main rivals.

Still, as I said, this is veering off-topic.

[Forogil]

Guaranteed it's just because they've heard "Cuban Missile Crisis" and are basing everything off of that.

That seems really silly, considering that Cuba wasn't doing much during that crisis.

The fact that Cuba managed to shrug off the Bay of Pigs would be a better example, and also show that foreign invasions of countries often fail badly - and push countries in the opposite direction compared to what was intended, as Russia has seen in Ukraine (and previously in Afghanistan).

[Benggaul]

That seems really silly, considering that Cuba wasn't doing much during that crisis.

Yes, thanks for explicitly stating the whole joke. Did I really need to make it more clear?

[Milchshake]

The numbers of Cuba's military international adventures took a real nose dive in .... 1991.

Siri, what happened in 1991?

[Gaidax]

All this is true, but it doesn't change the fact that for another generation at least, Taiwan is absolutely critical to American interests- arguably the most strategic location that isn't mainland America itself, due to the double whammy of being the world's tech factory and being perfectly placed to curtail China's power projection in the area. I strongly doubt direct action against Taiwan will be met with sternly worded letters. If the Chinese believed that they'd have started to move on the island, and produce means to invade it, a long time ago, rather than bark at it and move their ships nearby pretending anyone is impressed.

Hence I say it won't happen now, but within 10-20 years. That is your another generation.

[Forogil]

Yes, thanks for explicitly stating the whole joke. Did I really need to make it more clear?

Look at the other posts in that sub-thread...

[Gabriel]

Classic Russia. There is now a video on Twitter showing Russian barrier troops gunning down retreating mobiks.

[YUPPIE]

Classic Russia. There is now a video on Twitter showing Russian barrier troops gunning down retreating mobiks.

desertion constitutes treason which constitutes execution in military terms

[Jastall]

Hence I say it won't happen now, but within 10-20 years. That is your another generation.

And as I said later, even then I doubt it's a sure thing, the place is just too good a thorn in China's side for the US to just accept it being removed. The balance of power would need to have dramatically shifted in China's favor for an invasion to take place unopposed. But that's the last I'll say on the topic.

[Benggaul]

Look at the other posts in that sub-thread...

I don't click their links considering where they get most of their "news". I would put them on ignore and be done with it if it weren't for the fact this would essentially delete the entire thread from my page due to the way "Ignore" works here.

[Gabriel]

desertion constitutes treason which constitutes execution in military terms

In non-shitholes after a court martial maybe. Russians on the other hand are just gunning down mobiks that are trying to retreat from active combat.

[Iphie]

desertion constitutes treason which constitutes execution in military terms

Retreating =/= deserting, and even if it was that's for a military tribunal to decide, not summarily.

[Warning]

I do not believe that the Russian army now has the strength to prevent Ukrainians from retaking Mariupol and Melitopol. When they do I cannot see Russia maintaining control of Crimea in the long term. After that I feel the only way to maintain power in Russia will be the arrest and public trial of leading military figures to serve as a scapegoat. Interesting times are ahead.