Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Cynical Asshole]

It ain't so bad being a buffer zone country. We get to shoot at Russian military if they decide to push their luck.

In other news, the price of turnips for our resident shills is going up.

Not an issue for Russians. They went through famine that killed millions, and they didn't rise up. The social asshole of both the Russian and Chinese people is quite large and can take a lot of pounding before feeling anything.

[Xyonai]

Obama / Biden have a history of setting red lines and then doing nothing when they got crossed. There is no way Biden will start WW3 over Poland. Biden will let Russia have Poland.

Hi, it's Xyonai, here to key you in on something I like to call 'The passage of time'. See, things nowadays aren't the same as they were ten years ago; back then our centrist president really didn't want to miff Russia, because too many people were under the delusion that Russia would ease up on being massive dipshits if they were treated nicely and brought into the western trade world. In a way this extended into our limp response to Syria, who remains a valuable Russian ally.

But now, after this botched war and Russia broadcasting their fondness for raping and murdering non-combatants and weaponizing grain shipments to starve the world, most of the western world has wised up to the fact that Russia will never not be a dipshit and are much more keen on putting their thumbs in their eyes. See; Us giving Ukraine a bunch of guns, intel, and training.

So this idea that Biden will just shrug his shoulders and do nothing as Russia invades a member of fucking NATO is so delusional I'm more than certain you're taking the piss to farm outrage responses.

[Makabreska]

Not an issue for Russians. They went through famine that killed millions, and they didn't rise up. The social asshole of both the Russian and Chinese people is quite large and can take a lot of pounding before feeling anything.

Different times, not nearly close enough lvl of terror and control over population they have today. Today Russians like their iPhones and other commodities very much.

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So this idea that Biden will just shrug his shoulders and do nothing as Russia invades a member of fucking NATO is so delusional I'm more than certain you're taking the piss to farm outrage responses.

Well, it's a guy who has a serious war fetish. He dreamt of american civil war and was saying, among other things, that Putin will send nookz to US in November. Very curious case.

[Forogil]

The US doesn't seem to be concerned with China and Russia encroaching the country from the south as well as Cuba. Basically all south-american countries as well as Cuba are bending over to Chinese influence and by extension Russian influence.

Only Russia thinks that they are the ones influencing the Chinese in their partnership.

Should WW3 be a thing, it seems like the US would have to first conquer their own continent before lending aid to Europe.

I don't see any reason for that. This is not the game Risk where you have to pick up continents in a global conflict.

[Flarelaine]

Biden wouldn't have to worry about starting WW3 if Poland was seriously invaded, because it would already be in full swing by the time he got the news. Poland is a NATO and EU nation. If they sit back and do nothing, both organizations cease to exist. And the EU in particular won't allow that. You think Germany wants a border with Russia again? If Germany is going to be fighting against Russia, do you think they'd rather do it in Germany where their citizens are dying, or in Poland, where they are not? France? Britain? You have other nuclear powers here who are VERY invested in keeping any fighting very far away from their borders. They have nothing to lose, and everything to gain, by stopping any aggression at the Polish border. Because it is easier, and safer, for them to do it there.

The US is in the same boat really. The whole reason for NATO existing is because the US does not, under any circumstances, want there to be a hostile fleet in the North Atlantic Ocean. This is a lynchpin of how the US protects itself. There is no world in which they sit back and watch WW3 unfold in Europe without getting involved, they can not allow a hostile nation to have the European ports.

So yeah, the other Western countries do in fact care quite a bit about Poland. They will not sit back and let it fall.

Let's not discount the Poles themselves. Global Firepower considers their army the 6th strongest in NATO, ahead of Germany, Spain and Canada. They had been among the few NATO members states to actually reach the 2% benchmark in military expenditures and they are now arming themselves with everything they can get their hands on and in these days that's a LOT. Plus like the Baltics, they consider the prospect of fighting the Russians a when, not an if.

[Cynical Asshole]

Only Russia thinks that they are the ones influencing the Chinese in their partnership.


I don't see any reason for that. This is not the game Risk where you have to pick up continents in a global conflict.

South-America is a foothold for Chinese and Russian reinforcements.

How can the US secure their country in a war, if Russians and Chinese keeping bringing stuff on the American continent by landing in Brazil or Venezuela?! America would have to make sure they can't get a foothold on the American continent at all.

[Gaidax]

TFW peeps treat my country as a buffer zone.

Due to the location, it was always a country big bois trampled on, on their way to fight the other big bois.

[Forogil]

South-America is a foothold for Chinese and Russian reinforcements.

No, it is more complicated and unfortunately South-America has major real issues to tackle.

How can the US secure their country in a war, if Russians and Chinese keeping bringing stuff on the American continent by landing in Brazil or Venezuela?! America would have to make sure they can't get a foothold on the American continent at all.

If there is a real war between the US and Russia and/or China the least of our worries will be South-America. The US will both work to stop reinforcements at sea and before they reach the southern border.

The reason we are discussing Poland (and Belarus) as buffer zones between Russia and the "west" is that they fairly flat and thus both sides think that it would be fairly quick in a land war (a similar reason explains why Ukraine is primarily attacked from the east and not north). Read "Prisoners of Geography" by Tim Marshal if you want to know more (including where China is actually likely to expand).

[zealo]

South-America is a foothold for Chinese and Russian reinforcements.

How can the US secure their country in a war, if Russians and Chinese keeping bringing stuff on the American continent by landing in Brazil or Venezuela?! America would have to make sure they can't get a foothold on the American continent at all.

In a conventional war, with their navy.

The real world isn’t a video game where logistics behave on a basis of effectively being teleportation magics.

China would have a real hard time doing what you’re suggesting on any actually significant scale so long as the US navy isn’t resting on the ocean floor.

[ghotihook]

South-America is a foothold for Chinese and Russian reinforcements.

How can the US secure their country in a war, if Russians and Chinese keeping bringing stuff on the American continent by landing in Brazil or Venezuela?! America would have to make sure they can't get a foothold on the American continent at all.

China would have difficultly in transferring troops by sea to take over Taiwan. There is zero chance they are a concern transferring troops to South America.

[Lynarii]

Let's not discount the Poles themselves. Global Firepower considers their army the 6th strongest in NATO, ahead of Germany, Spain and Canada. They had been among the few NATO members states to actually reach the 2% benchmark in military expenditures and they are now arming themselves with everything they can get their hands on and in these days that's a LOT. Plus like the Baltics, they consider the prospect of fighting the Russians a when, not an if.

I'm not discounting the Poles themselves. They are one of the few NATO countries that considered a conventional war possible, and prepared themselves in case they need to fight it. With one of the best armed and best trained land armies in the regions, they might not even need help should they get attacked by the full might of Russia. Belarus or Wagner would get absolutely crushed. The point that I was responding to though was the idea that everyone else would abandon Poland, which I don't think would happen. Poland is powerful on it's own, and they wouldn't be alone.

[Flarelaine]

Read "Prisoners of Geography" by Tim Marshal if you want to know more (including where China is actually likely to expand).

I thought that book sounds like something I'd want to read. Looked it up on Wikipedia, saw the cover... hold on, I'd swear I saw something like that in the pile of books waiting to be read. Just when my holiday is coming up. Thanks!

[fluffhead]

China would have difficultly in transferring troops by sea to take over Taiwan. There is zero chance they are a concern transferring troops to South America.

And even if they did land in South America they would be bottlenecked by the Darien gap and Panama. We would be pretty safe from ground troops until they build up enough of a force to try a naval landing and I'm pretty sure we would prevent that from happening.

[Sunseeker]

And even if they did land in South America they would be bottlenecked by the Darien gap and Panama. We would be pretty safe from ground troops until they build up enough of a force to try a naval landing and I'm pretty sure we would prevent that from happening.

Exactly, and if they were going to try a naval landing, they could just do that to begin with. Transporting a whole army to SA, just to hop them over to Florida isn't darmatically easier than transporting a whole army to the California coast.

And of course, there's still the issue of having to contend with the SA countries themselves.

[Lynarii]

South-America is a foothold for Chinese and Russian reinforcements.

How can the US secure their country in a war, if Russians and Chinese keeping bringing stuff on the American continent by landing in Brazil or Venezuela?! America would have to make sure they can't get a foothold on the American continent at all.

A tank in Brazil is not a threat to the US. Shipping land forces to Brazil, then trying to take them north through Central America would be even more difficult than just trying to land them directly on the US coastline. You're talking about trying to get them through some of the densest jungles in the world, over mountain ranges, past chokepoints like Panama (US ally), and through Mexico... a country firmly allied to the US that would be heavily supported should it come to that. And they wouldn't have to just make it through all this once. They would need to maintain a consistent logistical supply line through it all so their army would have bullets and food.

To put this in perspective, Russia is having trouble maintaining it's supply lines from Russia to the Ukrainian front.

[Gaidax]

A tank in Brazil is not a threat to the US. Shipping land forces to Brazil, then trying to take them north through Central America would be even more difficult than just trying to land them directly on the US coastline. You're talking about trying to get them through some of the densest jungles in the world, over mountain ranges, past chokepoints like Panama (US ally), and through Mexico... a country firmly allied to the US that would be heavily supported should it come to that. And they wouldn't have to just make it through all this once. They would need to maintain a consistent logistical supply line through it all so their army would have bullets and food.

To put this in perspective, Russia is having trouble maintaining it's supply lines from Russia to the Ukrainian front.

While I think this whole talk to begin with is far-fetched, I do like to remind you about 1962 crisis, where all it was a bunch of missiles in one unfriendly state south of US to almost bring about WW3.

You don't, really, need tanks to make a lot of worldwide noise using some proxy state in South America, if it ever comes to such confrontations again.

[Kaleredar]

The US doesn't seem to be concerned with China and Russia encroaching the country from the south as well as Cuba. Basically all south-american countries as well as Cuba are bending over to Chinese influence and by extension Russian influence.

Should WW3 be a thing, it seems like the US would have to first conquer their own continent before lending aid to Europe.

What in the hell kind of paranoid pro-China nonsense is this?

One, you’re assuming blind allegiance from some nebulous number of South American (and Central American) countries to China. Apparently ones that all form a contiguous line through the thousands of miles of mountains and rainforest in the way.

Two, you’re assuming China possesses some means to get all this equipment across the largest ocean in the world. Despite the US’ considerable air and naval prowess.

Three, you’re doing this in a thread wherein a modern global power failed to invade a far weaker country they share a land border with. But no, this other modern global power is totally going to ship an entire military force across the pacific to invade a superior military force.


Get the hell out of here. Maybe China should try dealing with their demographic issues and real estate collapse before thinking of shipping forces to South America with the intent of invading the US.

[D Luniz]

South-America is a foothold for Chinese and Russian reinforcements.

How can the US secure their country in a war, if Russians and Chinese keeping bringing stuff on the American continent by landing in Brazil or Venezuela?! America would have to make sure they can't get a foothold on the American continent at all.

Unless they are cozing up to Mexico, they could physically swap with South America and it wouldn't matter because the Darién gap it practically uncrossable for any land force. Migrants are dying in droves crossing it, and they aren't trying to haul weapons and be a viable fighting force.

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And even if they did land in South America they would be bottlenecked by the Darien gap and Panama. We would be pretty safe from ground troops until they build up enough of a force to try a naval landing and I'm pretty sure we would prevent that from happening.

Sry, didn't read ahead to see you pointed this choke point out

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While I think this whole talk to begin with is far-fetched, I do like to remind you about 1962 crisis, where all it was a bunch of missiles in one unfriendly state south of US to almost bring about WW3.

You don't, really, need tanks to make a lot of worldwide noise using some proxy state in South America, if it ever comes to such confrontations again.

That was only worth it at the time because the max range of ballistic missles vs detection of launchs meant you wanted your missiles as close as possible. Now, due to increases in technology of both the missiles and satellite based launch detection, it wouldn't matter beyond the "we can't show weakness in the eyes of the world" aspect.

Which is the only reason Putin is still throwing Russians into the Ukrainian's blender. You can't claim to be a world power if a nation you claim both is t a nation and that you'd cow in 3 days has not only held you off but is now pushing you out 600+ days later.

[Gaidax]

That was only worth it at the time because the max range of ballistic missles vs detection of launchs meant you wanted your missiles as close as possible. Now, due to increases in technology of both the missiles and satellite based launch detection, it wouldn't matter beyond the "we can't show weakness in the eyes of the world" aspect.

It would most certainly be worth it now too, because then you could make use of a whole much more missile options, as opposed to limited and valuable intercontinental ones specifically.

Distance from Venezuela to US is about 3k kilometers and that one is a likely host for such an arrangement. That's a whole different story compared to ~10k kilometers from China to US.

3k kilometers is a challenge too, but it's a whole lot easier and more threatening than above. For example, that's within range of hypersonic missiles already tested in China years ago.

And again - I don't see this happening any time soon, or probably ever, but it is a viable possibility simply because there already was a precident.

[Kaleredar]

It would most certainly be worth it now too, because then you could make use of a whole much more missile options, as opposed to limited and valuable intercontinental ones specifically.

Distance from Venezuela to US is about 3k kilometers and that one is a likely host for such an arrangement. That's a whole different story compared to ~10k kilometers from China to US.

3k kilometers is a challenge too, but it's a whole lot easier and more threatening than above. For example, that's within range of hypersonic missiles already tested in China years ago.

And again - I don't see this happening any time soon, or probably ever, but it is a viable possibility simply because there already was a precident.

…And Japan and South Korea are only how many kilometers from China?