Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang]

Have you ever heard of B-52's? Or that every single Tu-95 is like twice younger than them?

Since it was about gear and weapons, add to that the likes of the M1911 or Colt 1911 pistol and the Browning M2 machine gun, which are still in wide use despite being designs from the early 20th Century, more than a century old now...

[ShakesForPRide]

Are we talking about the B-52s that haven't seen any actual action since like, the 2001 at most, and have mostly been used to move shit around, or just been used for surveillance/radar support?

The B-52s that are increasingly being sent to the boneyard for retirement?

"B-b-but other planes" deflection doesn't deter from the simple fact that the Russian military is woefully underequipped with aging tech.

I know which one I'd rather fly in.

[snebb]

Announcements that the markets are remaining closed tomorrow.
Russian economy right now:

[Ivanstone]

Are we talking about the B-52s that haven't seen any actual action since like, the 2001 at most, and have mostly been used to move shit around, or just been used for surveillance/radar support?

The B-52s that are increasingly being sent to the boneyard for retirement?

"B-b-but other planes" deflection doesn't deter from the simple fact that the Russian military is woefully underequipped with aging tech.

Why waste a Tu160 against a weak opponent? Tu95 has a high payload and it still works.

[Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang]

Are we talking about the B-52s that haven't seen any actual action since like, the 2001 at most, and have mostly been used to move shit around, or just been used for surveillance/radar support?

The B-52s that are increasingly being sent to the boneyard for retirement?

"B-b-but other planes" deflection doesn't deter from the simple fact that the Russian military is woefully underequipped with aging tech.

IIRC there's currently a modernization program under development, aiming to replace their engines with more modern Turbofans. From what I've been reading they are scheduled to fly into the 2050s.

Of course their role is not the same as the bomb trucks of the Vietnam era, but more centered around cruise missile delivery AFAIK.

[Belize]

IIRC there's currently a modernization program under development, aiming to replace their engines with more modern Turbofans. From what I've been reading they are scheduled to fly into the 2050s.

Of course their role is not the same as the bomb trucks of the Vietnam era, but more centered around cruise missile delivery AFAIK.

Not to invoke the Ship of Theseus, but if you replace most of the fuselage and engines with modern materials, are they really the same planes?

[Magnagarde]

The Russian strategy and planning failed, that much is certain. Their attempt at a quick operation, to prevent massive civilian casualties and the destruction of Ukrainian civil infrastructure, has clearly failed. The problem for them now is just how demoralized and uninspired the Russian soldiers going into Ukraine are.

Russia could've easily taken Donetsk and Luhansk after prolonged RUAF and artillery softening; there'd be some international backlash(it would hardly go as far as it did now), but the reception back at home would've been much more positive and the desired result would've been much easier to achieve after 8 years of de facto war in the two breakaway regions.

That would've been Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk taken from Ukraine, which would've cost them very little. The international community wouldn't have reacted with 1/100 of the pressure that is being applied now and Russian military/Ukrainian civilian casualties would've been minimal. What is being done to Ukraine right now is simply unexplainable and extremely uncharacteristic of Putin.

[P for Pancetta]

Not to invoke the Ship of Theseus, but if you replace most of the fuselage and engines with modern materials, are they really the same planes?

Not really, they use the same chassis/hull and the same name (they add stuff occasionally). Same goes with tanks, and jet fighters. There is a huge difference between modern F16's compared to when they were new.

[Breccia]

Announcements that the markets are remaining closed tomorrow.

It's too little, too late. Russian stocks are fucked.

Russia Stocks Crash Even With Moscow Exchange Closed—Experts Call Market ‘Uninvestable’

Though Russia's central bank closed the Moscow Stock Exchange on Monday, a number of Russia-focused funds trading in the United States crashed Monday, reflecting hundreds of millions of dollars in market value wiped from Russian stocks as international sanctions against the country prompted experts to reconsider the viability of investing in its market.

After the nation's currency plummeted to a record low in morning trading, Russia's central bank announced Monday it would close stock trading on the Moscow Stock Exchange, the nation's largest exchange group, until March 5 as it "assesses the feasibility" of reopening "depending on the development of the situation."

Though some 200 stocks didn't trade on the Moscow Stock Exchange Monday, a handful of Russia-focused exchange-traded funds, which track baskets of stocks in the country, still traded in the U.S.—with the VanEck Russia ETF and iShares MSCI Russia ETF, the two largest with about $1 billion and $350 million in assets, respectively, cratering about 25% apiece.

Some of the largest stock holdings in the funds include oil giants Gazprom and Rosneft, as well as financial institution Sberbank, whose London-listed shares crashed 74% on Monday.

With hundreds of millions of dollars in market value wiped in the U.S., a top executive at index provider MSCI told Reuters on Monday the Russian market has become "uninvestable," arguing that removing the nation's listings from indexes was a "natural next step" if clients and investors can't transact in the market.

On CNBC Monday, Goldman Sachs analyst Kamakshya Trivedi agreed, saying growing international sanctions punishing Russia for its invasion of Ukraine have made the nation "increasingly uninvestable for global investors," as measures targeting the central bank's reserve assets have helped push the ruble down to record lows.

Losses piled on so much Monday that the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq both temporarily halted trading of some Russia-based stocks and ETFs on Monday, as is common during periods of high volatility.

Overall, Forbes continues, Russian stocks are down about 50%. The Russian stock exchange being open or not, is irrelevant.

Russia is not a sealed system. Once they started doing business with the rest of the world, the rest of the world's rules agrees.

I will say, I never "got" the idea of closing a stock market just because it's crashing. Oh sure, it prevents a catastrophe, but is it the free market or not? While my opinion is likely "wrong", I will say what I like even less, is when the government shuts it down. And no, I don't mean "we have to close because the Treasury laws say..." I mean the government fucking the country so royally that everyone loses. Granted, I'm led to believe the Russian stock market is like the American one in that most of the holdings are in wealthy hands, then point to Putin's oligarch friends, laugh hysterically, flip them off. But if Putin's actions are caving in what little retirement the average Russian has, holy shit, there will be fire in the streets.

Oh, and before anyone says anything: yes, US stocks are down, too. Like, six percent. That blows. But Russia is by far getting the worst of it.

Of course, the idea is to keep the stock market closed until later to avoid the selloff. Unless the plan is to keep it closed until there's some kind of peace talk, that just flat-out won't work. It's not like people will magically forget there's worldwide sanctions against Russia in the next couple weeks. Hell, more sanctions or UEFA/FIFA-esque cancellations (nice of them to join in solidarity by the way, bold public statement) are likely on the way.

How long can Russia tread water?

- - - Updated - - -

Holy fucking shit, it's worse. Per Axios:

Russia's central bank said the Moscow Exchange wouldn't open for stock trading through at least Tuesday. The exchange was closed on Monday.

It's the latest financial fallout of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which triggered massive sanctions from several other countries that have sent the ruble plummeting to record lows against the dollar.

Russia's central bank increased interest rates on Monday from 9.5% to 20% in response to the crashing ruble and to prevent a run on banks. It also resumed buying gold on the domestic market.

A series of other measures announced in response to the sanctions includes requiring brokers to "suspend the execution of all orders by foreign legal entities and persons who want to sell off their Russian investments, such as stocks and shares."

The Bank of Russia said trading hours will be announced Wednesday morning.

Wow. I've rarely seen anyone admit they're this badly fucked. "Comrades, it's okay, your money is fine. By the way, does anyone have any spare gold?"

I'm curious how the "don't let foreigners sell off assets" will work out. Can you imagine telling your customers "you can't sell back the product we sold you"? That's some kind of reverse-ass warranty, right there.

The truly impoverished of Russia won't care, because they never had any money. The remaining 0.02% should be livid.

[ShakesForPRide]

Dunno, do I file tis under Irony or Fucked-Around-Found-Out


Russia: Financial collapse, wild run after hard currency, financial markets are closed; all government websites have been down for 4 days.
Ukraine: All websites are up. Electricity, water & banks work normally.

[Breccia]

Oh man, it's never-ending fuckery in the Russian market.

Per Reuters this time:

Investors in Russia are facing a mark-to-no-market problem. The rouble tanked and the country’s stock exchange did not open after the West cranked up sanctions against President Vladimir Putin. Even when trading resumes, foreign money managers and companies face the prospect of writing off their investments in the country, as oil giant BP did.

"Um, Breccia? What does that term mean?"

Well, as an American child of the 80's, I can tell you mark to market means "how much your asset is worth, even if it hasn't been bought or sold recently". For example, if you have a bunch of mortgage-backed securities which are worth as much as the free market says they are. I would assume "mark to no market" means this process continues, even if the stock exchange is artificially closed.

Investors in Russian securities face two big questions after the United States and allies restricted the country’s foreign exchange reserves and promised to kick some banks out of the SWIFT global payments system. The first is whether investors will be able to sell. Russia’s equity and derivatives markets remained closed Monday, while the central bank ordered brokers not to execute sell orders from foreign shareholders

By the way, I should have commented on this earlier: it looks like Russians will be able to sell Russian assets, but foreigners will not. Imagine being told "the NYSE is open, but for the first two hours, you can only sell GM stock if you're a GM executive". What does that tell you about GM? What does that tell you about Russia? Russia is trying to protect their own, but in doing so, is admitting in public that nobody in their right mind would ever touch Russia right now.

The second question is whether they’ll be able to get their money out. Russian authorities are scrambling to preserve foreign currency reserves, while banks are navigating a thicket of rapidly changing sanctions when processing international payments. It’s far from clear what investors like Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, which said it was selling its $2.8 billion portfolio of Russian securities, will get back.

Western companies with big businesses in Russia face similar challenges. The European Central Bank said Russian lender Sberbank’s subsidiaries in Croatia and Slovenia were “likely to fail”. It’s not hard to imagine the Russian central bank taking similar aim at local subsidiaries of European lenders like Raiffeisen Bank or Société Générale. A rapid exit is costly, as BP demonstrated when announcing it would offload its 20% stake in Russia’s Rosneft. Faced with a dearth of obvious buyers, the company may end up writing off its entire $25 billion investment.

The rouble slid by 21% to 100 against the U.S. dollar by 1000 GMT, while shares in Russian companies listed in London fell sharply; Russian lender Sberbank’s stock slid 62%, and oil giant Rosneft was down 41%.

We've discussed before what happens if everyone decides a currency is worthless and dumps it. It was about US and China at the time. Well, you're seeing it in action. If anyone wants rubles, they're going cheap. Wait a week, they'll be even cheaper.

Holy fuck, I'm out of Taglongs. Also, The Russian stock market is experiencing the fifth worst crash in history. Man, today gets worse and worse to be a rich stock-owning Russian or rich stock-owning Russian partner.

"Oh, so it's the fifth-worst in Russian history? That doesn't sound that bad, considering."

Um...no.

The benchmark MOEX Russia Index closed 33% lower in Moscow, erasing $189 billion in shareholder wealth, as Western leaders vowed to step up penalties on Russia after military forces entered Ukraine. That’s the fifth most brutal one-day selloff among 90 global equity indexes analyzed by Bloomberg.

This is the first time since 1987 that a selloff of this magnitude has hit a market worth more than $50 billion. In the aftermath of the Black Monday crash that year, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index tumbled 33%. The worst single-day drop over the past century in any market of any size was Argentina’s 53% slump in January 1990, when the country was battling hyperinflation and a mounting economic crisis.

Now Fortune goes on to say that some countries have stock market closing principles, like the US does, but Russia had one too...and they're still this bad. This is global get-the-fuck-out territory. Except for the part where oh no you can't, Russia made that illegal.

Unless you're a Russian. In which case you can still sell to...um...I mean, who'd buy at this point? This isn't a free-fall, this is a singularity.

[Jessicka]

No wonder Russia is getting shit on when they're still using gear and vehicles from the 50's.

America keeps Stratofortresses going, somehow.

[Easo]

Are we talking about the B-52s that haven't seen any actual action since like, the 2001 at most, and have mostly been used to move shit around, or just been used for surveillance/radar support?

The B-52s that are increasingly being sent to the boneyard for retirement?

"B-b-but other planes" deflection doesn't deter from the simple fact that the Russian military is woefully underequipped with aging tech.

What are you talking about? They are the primary source of air launched strategic level missiles for USA and on constant patrol duty in case of the "big bang", they have been used for attacks in every single major conflict USA was in since 2001, including bombing ISIS.

Retirement? They just finally finished the agreement of new engine procurement for them and current service life is planned until 2050'ies - the last airframes will literally have 100 year service life.

Common.

[PhaelixWW]

Now how about an extra large shipment of sunflower seeds to be sent to the Ukraine for Russian soldier burials?

What burials? Those seeds won't survive the mobile crematoriums...

So what? Brazil, the US and the UK all picked clowns lately.

Bolsonaro is surfing a net approval rating of, like, -30-40%.

Good thing it's not an election year in Brazil.

Oh, wait...



...



Bye, Felicia!

So, really, the US kicked their clown leader to the curb, Brazil seems poised to do the same this year, and BoJo seems to be losing approval quite steadily as well.

I just wish it was realistic to wish that Putin and mini-Pu Lukashenko would face dethronings of their own.

[Gaidax]

People don't realize that for strategic bombers 50 years is easily expected service time. Especially against targets that have snowball's chance in hell of actually taking one out.

[Ornerybear]

What are you talking about? They are the primary source of air launched strategic level missiles for USA and on constant patrol duty in case of the "big bang", they have been used for attacks in every single major conflict USA was in since 2001, including bombing ISIS.

Retirement? They just finally finished the agreement of new engine procurement for them and current service life is planned until 2050'ies - the last airframes will literally have 100 year service life.

Common.

Not just new engines, their entire electrical/computer systems have been modernized from the ground up, engineered specifically for each individual aircraft. This includes their ground based systems as well. IIRC they are also pulling two out of the boneyard to put back into service. My father was one of the engineering leads for the implementation on the new systems (they keep pulling the old bastard out of retirement lol). The airforce is actually pretty proud to keep these things in service it sounds like.

[Jessicka]

What are you talking about? They are the primary source of air launched strategic level missiles for USA and on constant patrol duty in case of the "big bang", they have been used for attacks in every single major conflict USA was in since 2001, including bombing ISIS.

Retirement? They just finally finished the agreement of new engine procurement for them and current service life is planned until 2050'ies - the last airframes will literally have 100 year service life.

Common.

C-130s are still being built as well. Big airframes are big airframes, there’s not a lot more to do with them design wise, sure you can upgrade the guts and avionics but what works well works and you don’t have to worry about physical compatibility with the load out between models.

Same with our Nimrods that only retired 10 years ago, built from airframe design that first flew in the 40s.

[Mihalik]

Seeing Putler behind his comical giant desks, one has to legit ask -Wouldn't a video call just be more practical for everyone involved?

[Edge-]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/28/europ...led/index.html

WARNING, PICTURES OF BLOOD/CHILD SUFFERING

Russian army just out there murdering 6 year olds.

[Jastall]

Seeing Putler behind his comical giant desks, one has to legit ask -Wouldn't a video call just be more practical for everyone involved?

Don't give him ideas. I'm loving the Dr. Strangelove vibes of the massive desks and Putin looking exasperated at his subordinates. All we need now is a cavernous War Room.