Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Fugus]

There won't be any nukes.

I know there is this "madman Putin" meme, but he's really not that. And even if you'd entertain the notion he is a wacko ready to slam that proverbial red button - Russia also has checks and balances on that one.

All this "highest alert" crap is simply psychological warfare and it even somewhat works, because nobody wants to gamble and lose.

Exactly my point, he is using the Nukes as a deterrent and trying to play like he has little to lose if he is countered on this. But that is largely a bluff that can likely be called without too much worry of that for the simple fact that even if he lost this conflict, even if he lost his position, even if he lost his life, he still has something that should be worth more to him than that that he doesn't want to risk losing, his family.

The only realistic way you will see nukes being put on the table by Putin is if he has some progressive mental disease that deteriorates his ability to think or someone takes out his kids at which point he REALLY has nothing left to lose.

[Gaidax]

The only realistic way you will see nukes being put on the table by Putin is if he has some progressive mental disease that deteriorates his ability to think or someone takes out his kids at which point he REALLY has nothing left to lose.

The people who put him there and keep him there would off him the moment it's a thing anyway.

It's not even about children or "something to lose", he is a mere mortal, not Iron Man and not a god. He's not even Kim Jong Un, even that guy needs to watch his back, let alone Putin.

He knows full well that if he tries - he won't be a thing one way or another even before anyone bothers to launch.

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I doubt it was a plan. The Pentagon thought Ukraine would fold quickly if memory serves. At most I'd say American support for Ukraine pre-war was a bait, to tempt Putin into overreaction, IE via militarily occupying the Republics or somesuch so Europe is forced closer to the US. They didn't expect the Kremlin to go full retard and not only invade the entire country, but to be such incompetents about it. At least probably not until the last couple weeks beforehand where Russian troop movements became a crystal clear indicator as to their intentions.

But yeah, they definitely can't believe their luck. This one move single-handedly obliterated Russian soft power, greatly weakened their economy, dispelled most myths as to their strength while also marking them as enough of a threat to get Europe spooked. It's an even more colossal screw-up than Irak, whose dire consequences were at least (relatively speaking) mostly felt by locals rather than Americans. Russians lost a lot to this venture on the pollical, military and economic fronts, and for what? More of a stranglehold on Crimea than they already had, probably more control over a small portion of Ukraine that they already influenced by proxy and "guarantees" that Ukraine will do their damnest to liberate themselves from as soon as humanly possible? Even claiming it's a Pyrrhic victory sounds quite charitable to me.

While striking, the bear made clear its flanks are made of paper. Silly bear.

Yes. Pretty much.

There was a bait 100% and yes the luck is that not only Putin took the bait, but he fucked it up royally too combined with Ukraine actually putting up a fight.

[Vankrys]

The only realistic way you will see nukes being put on the table by Putin is if he has some progressive mental disease that deteriorates his ability to think or someone takes out his kids at which point he REALLY has nothing left to lose.

i honestly think there is a non zero probability that Russia may use small yield tactical nuke against Ukraine if Putin is frustrated enough and needs a win.

[Jastall]

The people who put him there and keep him there would off him the moment it's a thing anyway.

It's not even about children or "something to lose", he is a mere mortal, not Iron Man and not a god. He's not even Kim Jong Un, even that guy needs to watch his back, let alone Putin.

He knows full well that if he tries - he won't be a thing one way or another even before anyone bothers to launch.

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Yes. Pretty much.

There was a bait 100% and yes the luck is that not only Putin took the bait, but he fucked it up royally too combined with Ukraine actually putting up a fight.

It's much like the US took Osama's bait hook, line and sinker. He expected 9/11 to send shockwaves through the country, I doubt he expected them to be so stupid about it that they'd invade one of the primary opponents of radical Islam in the Middle East and fuck up the region so much that a new Califate would rise up and Afghanistan would be retaken by the Taliban in literally two days. The asshole most definitely laughed in his watery grave when those happened.

And not to diminish Ukraine's tenacity, but I do think had the Russians be competent about it there's not much they could have done. A properly equipped, prepared, supplied and led Russian army really should have swept them aside. Unless I really do overestimate the Russians by a lot and/or underestimate how much aid Ukraine got. I'm still surprised as to how little Russia's air force is doing. Their doctrine depends less on air supremacy than America's but it's still something they should seek but apparently they half-assed that aspect even more than the rest. I predict that military scholars and analyst will both be baffled by this invasion for years to come and use it as a quick and handy "what not to do" showcase.

[Adam Jensen]

Watched a video of a Ukrainian man mourning the death of his wife Lyudmilla who was killed by Russian shelling in Mariupal.

42 years of marriage together.

Destroyed and for what? I don't understand this war at all. It was heartbreaking to see that man sob and demand why she was taken from him. The fuck did he do to deserve that? The fuck did any one in Ukraine do?

[Vankrys]

Watched a video of a Ukrainian man mourning the death of his wife Lyudmilla who was killed by Russian shelling in Mariupal.

42 years of marriage together.

Destroyed and for what? I don't understand this war at all. It was heartbreaking to see that man sob and demand why she was taken from him. The fuck did he do to deserve that? The fuck did any one in Ukraine do?

let me guess, they didn't ask for it.

[Fugus]

i honestly think there is a non zero probability that Russia may use small yield tactical nuke against Ukraine if Putin is frustrated enough and needs a win.

And the moment Russia tried that, they would be nuked off the face of the earth from multiple other nations who don't want to risk them doing the same to them now or in the immediate future when Russia gets extra paranoid about a retaliation.

If they were to attempt a small yield nuke ANYWHERE, including inside their own borders outside of a test site, Russia's cockroaches wouldn't even survive the response.

[Easo]

And the moment Russia tried that, they would be nuked off the face of the earth from multiple other nations who don't want to risk them doing the same to them now or in the immediate future when Russia gets extra paranoid about a retaliation.

If they were to attempt a small yield nuke ANYWHERE, including inside their own borders outside of a test site, Russia's cockroaches wouldn't even survive the response.

The short answer is No. The long answer is Nooooooooooo.
No one would touch Russia if they dropped a tactical nuke somewhere in Ukraine.

[PhaelixWW]

It doesn’t have to be entirely accurate, but the estimated costs of the technology aren’t hard to calculate for people familiar with such things.

So then you should have a source for that, right?

The cost of the R&D is one thing, the cost of manufacturing the missile is another.

Also, the term "hypersonic missile" covers a large amount of ground, for that matter. HGV's will probably cost $50-100m each. I don't think HCM's will get there except for the extreme high end versions, perhaps. And the Kinzhal is pretty much as low-end of an HCM as you can get, as a somewhat-modified, air-launched Iskander missile.

It's not really in the same class of HCM's envisioned by hypersonic missile R&D, let alone the more advanced HGV's.

[Gaidax]

i honestly think there is a non zero probability that Russia may use small yield tactical nuke against Ukraine if Putin is frustrated enough and needs a win.

They don't need to, they have quite a few other better options like gas or biological. If it even comes to that.

That's why you have US constantly mention these, because these are actually plausible, could happen kind of things.

Nukes? No.

[Fugus]

The short answer is No. The long answer is Nooooooooooo.
No one would touch Russia if they dropped a tactical nuke somewhere in Ukraine.

Your naive if you think that, if any nation launched a nuke at another, they could guarantee a response from others.

If Russia were to nuke Ukraine, you can kiss Russia goodbye.

[PhaelixWW]

The Pentagon thought Ukraine would fold quickly if memory serves.

The Pentagon: We're sad that we overestimated the Afghan Army against the Taliban, but we're happy we underestimated Ukraine against Russia.

Still... 0 for 2...

[Edge-]

https://www.thedailybeast.com/russia...schwarzenegger

Russia has made a powerful enemy today: Arnold Schwarzenegger.

[YUPPIE]

https://www.thedailybeast.com/russia...schwarzenegger

Russia has made a powerful enemy today: Arnold Schwarzenegger.

that guy also hates Trump too, if anyone remembers that speech he made denouncing Trump as human.

[uuuhname]

that guy also hates Trump too, if anyone remembers that speech he made denouncing Trump as human.

???? who cares if he hates Trump?

[Rasulis]

I'm not sure there's been a reliable price tag confirmed for the missiles used by Russia.

It would be interesting to get one of those missiles, and see if the chips inside have this logo.

[Breccia]

Russia has made a powerful enemy today: Arnold Schwarzenegger.

Arnie, you are a predator and an enemy.

Wow...that's just...wow.

[YUPPIE]

???? who cares if he hates Trump?

the speech he made is still notable. He said in a deathly tone, to "enemies of democracy":

You will never win.

[uuuhname]

the speech he made is still notable. He said in a deathly tone, to "enemies of democracy":

You will never win.

okay, I still have no idea what the problem with that is.

[YUPPIE]

okay, I still have no idea what the problem with that is.

it's just badass