Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Slant]

I'm not so naive as to believe countries operate on morals for past actions.

What isn't in the west's interest however is a Russia starting to have ambitions to disrupt the unipolar world order the likes of the USA have enjoyed since the early 90s. An attempt at a reset isn't anywhere near this certain without substantive changes in behaviour from Russia on a government level.

It's in nobody's interest to have Russia be an equal to the US. Just like it never was in anyone's interest for the Soviet Union to... well, exist, honestly. It was a bad institution, both for everyone on the planet AND for Russians inside the Soviet Union. Unless you were part of the political machine, that is.

[Gaidax]

I'm not so naive as to believe countries operate on morals for past actions.

What isn't in the west's interest however is a Russia starting to have ambitions to disrupt the unipolar world order the likes of the USA have enjoyed since the early 90s. An attempt at a reset isn't anywhere near this certain without substantive changes in behaviour from Russia on a government level.

Easily granted.

Would not be a first for Russia.

For Russia it is merits and interests as well and if West is generous enough, who knows, they might decide to be part of the "good team" for a while. Ultimately too strong Neo-Empire of China or nuclear Iran is not in Russian interests either.

Times change and all.

[Cynep]

Do you really think Russia will leave Crimea? Or will we now get CPR to join DPR and LPR?

For Putin that would be a slap in the face of course. But if someone more conciliatory like Navalny or Kasparov took over, giving up Crimea to save Russia makes sense. There is no rational reason for USA not to pressure Russian Federation until it follows Soviet Union into the grave - unless Russia becomes friendly to USA. So, it's a compromise between "broken Ukraine" and "broken Russia".

[Draco-Onis]

Here's the thing about resource economies.

They can be squeezed pretty easily as they lack the diversity to maintain a functional economy without people buying that narrow range of products they are selling.

Sure, without them costs of electronics might go up on our end for example ....but on their end, they are literally starving and dying due to shortages of basic necessities.

So yeah, the sanction regime will be eased ...but the pressure will be maintained to keep Russia under pressure, just above water...but letting it slowly fall apart from within.

Without Europe buying in the pressure will be light on the other hand these events will accelerate decline of globalism. It's hard to know for certain the outcome we have elections and when the war ends the public's attention will no longer be on Russia. The public's attention is rather fiddle food and gas prices are skyrocketing, even if the sanctions were to go down the harvest for the next two years is basically not happening in Russia and Ukraine. The things Russia and Ukraine produce people can't just opt out of not buying even in rich countries.

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For Putin that would be a slap in the face of course. But if someone more conciliatory like Navalny or Kasparov took over, giving up Crimea to save Russia makes sense. There is no rational reason for USA not to pressure Russian Federation until it follows Soviet Union into the grave - unless Russia becomes friendly to USA. So, it's a compromise between "broken Ukraine" and "broken Russia".

Except the USA cannot do it alone, I doubt the EU and the rest of the world signed up for destroying Russia.

[Zaydin]

Except the USA cannot do it alone, I doubt the EU and the rest of the world signed up for destroying Russia.

Eastern Europe/former Soviet puppet states have a very good reason now to want to see Russia brought to its knees.

[Fugus]

this is not a cartoon or fiction. I don't think it works like a button being there on his desk. I do admit I think there is a staff behind it, but the important part is Putin exercises absolute control and power over this staff. They cannot object to him. They are possibly even indoctrinated into absolute cult-like loyalty to believe every word of his mouth. Otherwise, someone as paranoid as him would not trust anyone else with nukes.

And if they aren't, we know Putin's favorite tactic is torture and murder into compliance. If someone said they were going to flay you and your family alive unless you do [insert], you would do it.

They fear him and won't tell him the truth for fear of his response. That isn't the same level of loyalty it takes to put a death sentence on your wife, kids, and self and blind following of his order which is what it would take to follow that order.

As I said, you put too much faith in his supposed insanity and not enough in what it would require of those around them and what they would have to sacrifice to follow him down that rabbit hole.

Edit: There are countless examples throughout history of people like Putin killed by those around him out of self preservation or that of their family or the nation being ruled over.

Putin launches and Russia dies and everyone knows that with most nations prepared and preparing to respond to any attempts by Russia.

[Gaidax]

Eastern Europe/former Soviet puppet states have a very good reason now to want to see Russia brought to its knees.

Might be shocking for you, but they aren't calling the shots.

The real decision makers sit in Western Europe and they aren't quite as raring to go.

[Draco-Onis]

Eastern Europe/former Soviet puppet states have a very good reason now to want to see Russia brought to its knees.

They're not the one levying the sanctions that are hurting the Russian economy.

[jonnysensible]

My week 4 takes in a flow of conciousness hoping the fucking webpage doesnt log me out while typing :

northern : 2 pincers have stalled and failed to encircle kyiv. They are not in a position to invade kyiv. On the western side of the river logistics are a nightmare, Ukranians have blown enough bridges and counter attacked enough to slow them. The air defenses are still good. The eastern side of the river is struggling to get round Chernihiv.

southern : the stupid area. they pushed west to odessa and took forces away from mauripol and took forces from the encirclement of the donbas.

eastern : encirclement of ukranian forces in donbass might be a reality. This is the front where something is actually happening. The Russians are making incremental gain. They are coming up from mariupol and down from kharkiv. Ukranian forces could be in a bad way. I think there are about 9-10 brigades there who have been in pitched battle for 3 weeks with Russian forces.

Russians will consolidate their positions and use them to bargain, while taking control of as much of the donbas as they can. taking mariupol allows control of the sea of azov so they can move forces away from it and focus on the pincer movement. mariupol is going to look like gronzy.


original aims : regime change [failed]
new aims : win in the donbass, trade cities for concessions, degrade ukranian military infrastructure and forces

The secondary objectives (demilitarization) is what Russia seems to be doing while it pauses. Bombing the barracks, assembly plants etc is designed to cripple the ukranian military complex in the medium-long term.

Belarus might intervene but its doubtful. If the Russians got battered i dont think the Belarus forces can do much better. And Lukashenko must be always worried about a coup.

China could send MRE's and ammo but seems unlikely. It wouldn't have an immediate effect so no need to think about it at the moment.

Sanctions : Are massive. Its going to lead to an economic catastrophe for Russia. Its fucked. But will have no immediate effect (weeks, months) on the war. But next year Russia is dead.

This looks like it will be a war of attrition. Which means mega destruction. If Russia cant make military progress it can raze the place pretty heavily. If Russia can hold and consolidate it can bring in fresh battalions. its already committed its best so the reserves aren't the best but Russia still has alot of power available.

The losses are significant. The FSB secures the regime against elites, the national guard secures the regime against the public. The national guard has been smashed, which doesn't look good for putins long term reign. When army POW's and soldiers come home and start taking its going to be bad for him.

The stories about shipping captured civilians is bad. You saw the materials they had at the start of this war (i remember a truck that got womped with riot police and another with barbed wire etc). Internment camps is a big yikes.

Russias elite forces have been smashed and taken the heaviest casualties.

I dont think odessa is in too much trouble and russia should stop fooling about there.

[Easo]

As for the recent supposed counterattacks - well, there kinda were couple, maybe more:

1. The one in Mykolaiv - yes/no/partially. No side seems to have a real definable front line here, both do not have enough troops. As per Russian interwebs some unit at front was rotated and replaced with green guys - who were then caught on the videos looting local shops . Then later Ukrainians showed up and the greenies chaotically run away, which seems to have forced at least some Russian rollback to fix the situation.
2. The one today about Makariv. Ehh... not really? Town was never taken in the first place, but there were Russians in the outskirts. Seems they are gone now and Ukraine controls more of E40 highway, not sure if it is fully deblocked or not (though too close to frontline anyway for safe usage). The whole north of Kiev is foggy, seems that most of the action is happening in the forests, not sure if anyone, including soldiers on both sides, know what exactly is going on.
3. Something happened around Izyum, which was lost few days ago. Not entirely sure if I understoof ir correctly, but Ukrainians might have managed to destroy a small force trying to do encirclement, putting a stop on such attempts in the nearest future.

Biggest issue is still in Donbas, as Johnny said - slow advances (think like ~15km a day) with an everpresent threat of encirclement.

Some reports that Russia might be bringing in reserve troops after all, in some quantities. More signs that remains of AA are getting increasingly supressed (more bombings with reduced Russian losses as the primary hint).

Eastern Europe/former Soviet puppet states have a very good reason now to want to see Russia brought to its knees.

You might want to take a look around to see how important we are in making such decisions. Hint - we are not.

[Rasulis]

China's BRI is another collateral damage of Ukraine war. People forget that Central Asia and Eastern Europe are key components of China's BRI. In fact Ukraine is a critical key region.

10 billion dollar of China investment in Ukraine down the drain.

A more regional outlook on the impact of the war on China's BRI.

Russia’s Invasion Is Crushing China’s Belt And Road Ambitions

[jonnysensible]

You might want to take a look around to see how important we are. Hint - we are not.

dont worry easo you ill buy you and shackler a bunk bed for my garage

[Easo]

dont worry easo you ill buy you and shackler a bunk bed for my garage

Do tell me, why would I want that?

[PhaelixWW]

Do tell me, why would I want that?

Because he doesn't, for some unknown reason, realize just how incredibly fucking stupid it makes people sound when they attempt to call you pro-Russian?

[Corvus]

3. Something happened around Izyum, which was lost few days ago. Not entirely sure if I understoof ir correctly, but Ukrainians might have managed to destroy a small force trying to do encirclement, putting a stop on such attempts in the nearest future.

It sounds like Izyum may not have been lost after all given repeated reports from western Intel that the Ukrainians are still defending it.

[Kaleredar]

I'm not "hopeful" - I'm just telling you how it actually is, based on history of it happening over and over and over again.

/shrug

And once again, not actually refuting any of my points.


And what "history" has their been of Russian success in... well, doing whatever the hell they're trying to do here?

They nabbed a chunk of land in Crimea. That's about it. This situation is clearly not this one, and Russia hasn't even had success in the past few weeks.

[Elenos]

Because he doesn't, for some unknown reason, realize just how incredibly fucking stupid it makes people sound when they attempt to call you pro-Russian?

Well anyone who doesn't buy the kool-aid story that Russia is getting completely decimated is apparently pro-Russia these days.

Meanwhile I look at virtually western media sources quoting Ukraine's government when they are obviously lying and not bothering to correct them in any way. I really try not to open the mainstream news these days because it just kills me.

[Kaleredar]

They're not the one levying the sanctions that are hurting the Russian economy.

Are you supposing that Russia doesn't deserve to be hurt, here?

Former soviet states don't possess the economic or military power to adequately redress Russia on anything by themselves. The EU and the United States, however? Absolutely, and obviously.

"This is really just between Russia and Ukraine, and Ukraine should know when they've lost, and it's wrong for the world to but into their business" is a really weird take when Russia was butting into Ukraine's business by... you know, invading them.

And targeting civilian areas with munitions.

And blowing up hospitals.

And kidnapping people.

[jonnysensible]

Do tell me, why would I want that?

to avoid the orcs when we write letters to the UN saying how bad it is when russia invades you.

[Rasulis]

Sanctions : Are massive. Its going to lead to an economic catastrophe for Russia. Its fucked. But will have no immediate effect (weeks, months) on the war. But next year Russia is dead.

This leads to the question: How much does Russia need western technology for its manufacturing?

Tass, 2019

Budget funds are spent on foreign equipment in the defense industry, which has counterparts in Russia, despite a ban, Russian Prosecutor-General Yuri Chaika said at a board meeting of the Prosecutor-General’s Office reviewing the results of its performance in the first half of 2019.

"Import substitution in the defense industry remains a problem," Chaika said. "Instances of non-compliance with the ban to purchase foreign equipment whose counterparts are manufactured in Russia continue to be revealed."

Moscow Times, 2017

“Thanks to oil inflating the value of the ruble it has always been cheaper and easier to import finished goods than go through the process of investing money into expensive production and development lines that produce goods that are, at the end of the day, inferior to the imports.”

Regnum News Agency, 2019

Interview with Russian economist Andrei Kolganov.

“There has been no serious tightening of the sanctions since last year, ” Kolganov said. — New sanctions were introduced only against individuals and companies. And this could hardly have had a significant impact on foreign trade turnover. Rather, the decline in imports is associated with a reduction in oil and gas revenues. There is less foreign exchange earnings, and therefore, purchases abroad have also decreased. In addition, the effect of import substitution has to some extent affected here. This also cannot be ruled out, since separate measures for import substitution were carried out.”

“First of all, we are talking about mechanical engineering and the production of various metalworking equipment [where the dependence is] more than 90%, ” Kolganov said. - In fact, all machine tools with numerical control and almost all industrial robots are imported. There is no serial production of industrial robots in the Russian Federation. Only experimental. A few years ago, the last workshop that made industrial robots closed. For other types of equipment, import dependence is from 60% to 80%. This applies to chemical, printing and textile equipment.”

In addition, there are three semiconductor foundries in Russia. The problem is that the US has near absolute monopoly on the parts required to build, maintain and repair the manufacturing equipment for anything 300-nm or better. Construction of the 85-nm foundry likely won't be completed. Production level on the remaining two will likely start to decline from lack of maintenance and repair.