Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Iphie]

Ukraine joining the EU wasn't realistic anyway. EU isn't planning to expand anytime soon.

Well I knew it would take quite some time, Von der Leyen's statement of "weeks not years" notwithstanding, but I did think that membership wasn't going to be an issue in the long run.

[Gabriel]

Who would be dumb enough to accept such a deal? Nukes are pretty much the only thing that guarantee you won't be invaded conventionally.

Well hey, I don't really give a shit about what russia wants. If it is fine regressing back to the stone-age while keeping their nukes, they are welcome to do so.

[Collegeguy]

Everyone has been annoyed with the Germans. To some extent even the Germans themselves.

But yeah, Germany is really really burning some bridges and wasting some goodwill points here.

I'm not really clear what the fuck the SDP trying to do here. They will end up collapsing their own coalition government over this eventually.

The Germany definitely have a lot of blame. They have been catatonic in their irresponsible decisions in energy and politics. Phasing out nuclear power is terrible form of German hubris. They have turned themselves into a weaker economic system that will have to attach themselves to stronger ones in order to survive. Ultimately, their irresponsible decisions is something others have to pay for.

[Combatbutler]

Well hey, I don't really give a shit about what russia wants. If it is fine regressing back to the stone-age while keeping their nukes, they are welcome to do so.

Just saying this mess won't be solved anytime soon might take decades, Russia crossed a line and needs to be punished for it, problem is they are still armed to the teeth with nukes and will continue to hold on to as many nukes as possible and as such won't face the full brunt of the consequences. And with two biggest players in Asia pretty much not giving a damn about the whole Ukraine situation, sanctions might not work in the long run either.

[Fugus]

Just saying this mess won't be solved anytime soon might take decades, Russia crossed a line and needs to be punished for it, problem is they are still armed to the teeth with nukes and will continue to hold on to as many nukes as possible and as such won't face the full brunt of the consequences. And with two biggest players in Asia pretty much not giving a damn about the whole Ukraine situation, sanctions might not work in the long run either.

Russia has nukes, that you are virtually guaranteed almost all of them haven’t been maintained and as such likely are more of a threat to the Russians around them than their targets.

While they will definitely have a few they kept maintained out of shear necessity, they aren’t armed to the teeth with them by any stretch.

Quite literally, all they got to do is maintain sanctions on them and watch them wither and become incapable of even maintaining what few they have.

Having Russia isolated from the world stage and forced to survive on their own in an area where they don’t have the supplies or cash to do so will likely be pretty effective, especially since their actions have invited their neighbors to join NATO out of the need to protect themselves since Russia has proven they can’t be trusted at honoring their words or their borders.

[Combatbutler]

Russia has nukes, that you are virtually guaranteed almost all of them haven’t been maintained and as such likely are more of a threat to the Russians around them than their targets.

While they will definitely have a few they kept maintained out of shear necessity, they aren’t armed to the teeth with them by any stretch.

You don't need many modern nukes to obliterate a nation, even if they maintain only 100 warheads it is still enough, though it currently has roughly 1.500 active warheads. And russia has a history of not really caring much for the welfare of its people.

Quite literally, all they got to do is maintain sanctions on them and watch them wither and become incapable of even maintaining what few they have.

As I said the two biggest players in Asia India and China don't really seem to care about the whole mess.

Having Russia isolated from the world stage and forced to survive on their own in an area where they don’t have the supplies or cash to do so will likely be pretty effective, especially since their actions have invited their neighbors to join NATO out of the need to protect themselves since Russia has proven they can’t be trusted at honoring their words or their borders.

You assume the entire world will stand united and actually sanction them over a prolonged period of time. I very much doubt it, so I'd love to be proven wrong in this case.

[Fugus]

You don't need many modern nukes to obliterate a nation, even if they maintain only 100 warheads it is still enough, though it currently has roughly 1.500 active warheads. And russia has a history of not really caring much for the welfare of its people.

Russia CLAIMS it has 1,500 active warheads. Russia claims a lot of stuff. What of that have been independently verified?

And I agree that Russia doesn’t need much to obliterate a country or care much about their people, those in power care about their families and know that if they launch those nukes their families are as good as dead and Russia will be nuked so hard by the rest of the world in response that not even their cockroaches will survive and any that makes it to a bomb shelter won’t be leaving it without being immediately killed or arrested and they will have a lot harder time trying to hide around the globe in the internet age. They are more likely to kill Putin themselves then sit there and watch Putin kill them and their families.

As I said the two biggest players in Asia India and China don't really seem to care about the whole mess.

China cares about China and will gladly leave Russia to die then risk itself. And they are logistically too far to offer too much support as that support won’t be able to cross the other places to get there and have to go around.

You assume the entire world will stand united and actually sanction them over a prolonged period of time. I very much doubt it, so I'd love to be proven wrong in this case.

This is one where we both will have to sit back and watch. The logic behind this is that Russia has proven themselves a threat to every other nation both ally and enemy and shown what their intentions were in the long run. To lift those sanctions would be to enable them to regroup and try again. Those like China who see themselves as far enough to not worry too much about it might have no issues lifting those sanctions, those closest to them and the US and Europe won’t with a good chance they won’t even allow any aid going there from China and other places to even flow through them to get there which severely limits it.

[Iphie]

China cares about China and will gladly leave Russia to die then risk itself. And they are logistically too far to offer too much support as that support won’t be able to cross the other places to get there and have to go around.

One thing, China isn't too far removed in the Far East, but that happens to be an area where Russia and China clashed in the past over and, while a treaty exists, Russia is still not entirely sure about how safe it is there. I read some rumours about China looking at those areas with new interest, probably nothing is going to happen but you know, if something went down there Russia'd be royally hosed.

I do agree though that China won't have ANY qualms about letting Russia fall if that's better for China.

[Combatbutler]

Russia CLAIMS it has 1,500 active warheads. Russia claims a lot of stuff. What of that have been independently verified?

Again even it is just 100 big ones that would be enough to scorch pretty much the entirety of europe or US for example.

And I agree that Russia doesn’t need much to obliterate a country or care much about their people, those in power care about their families and know that if they launch those nukes their families are as good as dead and Russia will be nuked so hard by the rest of the world in response that not even their cockroaches will survive and any that makes it to a bomb shelter won’t be leaving it without being immediately killed or arrested and they will have a lot harder time trying to hide around the globe in the internet age. They are more likely to kill Putin themselves then sit there and watch Putin kill them and their families.

You underestimate the power of spite and propaganda, these are very hard at work in Russia , always have been.

China cares about China and will gladly leave Russia to die then risk itself. And they are logistically too far to offer too much support as that support won’t be able to cross the other places to get there and have to go around.

You assume military aid, all they need to do is buy their gas and oil as they are doing right now, India started buying more recently.

This is one where we both will have to sit back and watch. The logic behind this is that Russia has proven themselves a threat to every other nation both ally and enemy and shown what their intentions were in the long run

In their immediate sphere of influence yes, for those not directly affected they won't care much. Warcrimes, massacres, even genocide etc. usually do not cause a prolonged global embargo.

. To lift those sanctions would be to enable them to regroup and try again. Those like China who see themselves as far enough to not worry too much about it might have no issues lifting those sanctions, those closest to them and the US and Europe won’t with a good chance they won’t even allow any aid going there from China and other places to even flow through them to get there which severely limits it.

They will care for their own benefit first and foremost. For them to go along with the sanctions in the long run, the west would have to compensate them for their losses, which I really doubt is gonna happen.

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One thing, China isn't too far removed in the Far East, but that happens to be an area where Russia and China clashed in the past over and, while a treaty exists, Russia is still not entirely sure about how safe it is there. I read some rumours about China looking at those areas with new interest, probably nothing is going to happen but you know, if something went down there Russia'd be royally hosed.

Depends what is more useful to china a weak russia which has to sell their resources at bargain prices or another potentially rebellious province and dealing with the response of the lunatics in moscow.

[For_The_Horde]

Russia has nukes, that you are virtually guaranteed almost all of them haven’t been maintained and as such likely are more of a threat to the Russians around them than their targets.

While they will definitely have a few they kept maintained out of shear necessity, they aren’t armed to the teeth with them by any stretch.

The problem isn't really the number even, Russia has shown time and time and time again they don't care about the rules of war or civilian casualties. Any nukes they plan to use would probably be the dirtiest bombs imaginable. Instead of raining down hellfire to wipe chunks of cities off the planet, they'll rain nuclear poison to kill everyone and blight the earth for centuries to come. Of course they'll lose any nuclear exchange they start, so they probably won't resort to using them ever unless they're going to lose anyways. Nuclear warfare is the equivalent of flipping over the game board, pulling the pin out of a grenade, and yelling "I lose? No, we both lose!"

[Fugus]

@Combatbulter

Russia wouldn’t get but a fraction of them off and I say this as someone living in the blast radius of Fort Bragg the US’s biggest base.

While Russia could realistically land a few and kill millions, it would also mean Russia just willingly committed suicide where the leaders just told their own wives and kids to get fucked and die. These people would fear knowingly killing their own kids in a murder suicide than just killing Putin themselves.

And I don’t underestimate the propaganda and spite at all on this, those people dumb enough to think that Russia is godly power and the world will roll over aren’t the ones in charge. The one who are know full well the consequences of that action and know they would be signing their kids death certificate and the rest of the world would largely survive while they were remembered as the next aspiring Hitler so they would be sacrificing their families for nothing.

And I wasn’t assuming military aid, if China sends Russia food or guys oil or sells them food, they won’t be sending it through Europe they will be stuck shipping it. And China also risks their own world standing in the process if they push too far and they know it.

China isn’t going to risk China to help Russia. The only reason they really care now is because they want Taiwan and want to see how the world reacts to this to measure their options.

And the places looking at the long run will be the main ones pushing the sanctions, it will be the short sighted ones wanting to remove them. They will want these sanctions enforced FOR THEIR BENEFIT AND PROTECTION because they know that Russia can’t be trusted to honor its word or it’s borders and they have actively been attacking the world for years before this with their stuff in the US elections and Brexit and all the rest.

And as the word phases out oil more and more , so does it phase out Russias influence. And with even automobiles phasing them out in the next 10 years, even if the sanctions lasted only 20 years, Russia would have little to offer the world when they got lifted anyways.

What’s better for China? That would have been Russia to invade Ukraine and succeed without any real pushback which is what they wanted to see. Given that didn’t happen, their best interests now is to keep the rest of the world from roping them in with Russia and restricting them because of it.

Getting cheap stuff from Russia would be a nice plus for them but that still requires them to be able to and from them.

But honestly, China might see it within their best interests to twist the knife and use this to get the lands I have heard that they have contested with Russia if I heard right, but either way, a strong Russia isn’t what China wants or in their best interests if they couldnt hold Ukraine and show China they could take Taiwan.

[Combatbutler]

Russia wouldn’t get but a fraction of them off and I say this as someone living in the blast radius of Fort Bragg the US’s biggest base.

While Russia could realistically land a few and kill millions, it would also mean Russia just willingly committed suicide where the leaders just told their own wives and kids to get fucked and die. These people would fear knowingly killing their own kids in a murder suicide than just killing Putin themselves.

You don't take this shit serious enough that much is certain, there are no easy solutions to this mess and the potential fall out of it, could end the world as we know it. Which is precisely why we had a cold war, we just went back to it.

And I don’t underestimate the propaganda and spite at all on this, those people dumb enough to think that Russia is godly power and the world will roll over aren’t the ones in charge. The one who are know full well the consequences of that action and know they would be signing their kids death certificate and the rest of the world would largely survive while they were remembered as the next aspiring Hitler so they would be sacrificing their families for nothing.

And I wasn’t assuming military aid, if China sends Russia food or guys oil or sells them food, they won’t be sending it through Europe they will be stuck shipping it. And China also risks their own world standing in the process if they push too far and they know it.

Russia doesn't need to buy food, they are pretty much self sufficient. And they plan to expand their pipeline network in the east, what world standing are you talking about? India is considered pretty westernized and they just started buying more, because it is a bargain deal. Reputation on the international state only means so much, unless the west pulls out the wallet and compensates the states that will suffer from an prolonged embargo, heck you are aware totally embargoing russia might cause a famine in Africa.

China isn’t going to risk China to help Russia. The only reason they really care now is because they want Taiwan and want to see how the world reacts to this to measure their options.

China cares for its own benefit a weakened Russia is good for china, a broken Russia is not, since the US would shift their priorities and challenge them further.

And the places looking at the long run will be the main ones pushing the sanctions, it will be the short sighted ones wanting to remove them. They will want these sanctions enforced FOR THEIR BENEFIT AND PROTECTION because they know that Russia can’t be trusted to honor its word or it’s borders and they have actively been attacking the world for years before this with their stuff in the US elections and Brexit and all the rest.

What kind of bollocks, most of the globe has nothing to fear from Russia directly, europe has mostly this problem now. And don't start with such nonsense as honoring ones word, rule of thumb never trust any superpower, they will topple nations if they feel like it, instigate wars with their schemes for influence.

Unfortunately we don't have an alliance, that keeps Russian, China and the US in check, all three can pull ridiculous shit if they so choose.

And as the word phases out oil more and more , so does it phase out Russias influence. And with even automobiles phasing them out in the next 10 years, even if the sanctions lasted only 20 years, Russia would have little to offer the world when they got lifted anyways.

You honestly expect global sanctions to hold for almost a generation?

What’s better for China? That would have been Russia to invade Ukraine and succeed without any real pushback which is what they wanted to see. Given that didn’t happen, their best interests now is to keep the rest of the world from roping them in with Russia and restricting them because of it.

Their best interest is in playing both, maximizing their profit.

Getting cheap stuff from Russia would be a nice plus for them but that still requires them to be able to and from them.

Won't be too hard since they are neighbours

But honestly, China might see it within their best interests to twist the knife and use this to get the lands I have heard that they have contested with Russia if I heard right

While possible, it entirely depends on the benefits a retaking of outer manchuria would bring, if they could get without any kind of repercussions they would most likely do it.

, but either way, a strong Russia isn’t what China wants or in their best interests if they couldnt hold Ukraine and show China they could take Taiwan.

True a strong Russia is not in chinas interest, but neither is a broken one, unless they intend to conquer the entire territory up until the ural.

[Fugus]

@Combatbulter

I am taking this seriously, I am also being as objective about it as I can be. I know Russia can nuke and potentially kill hundreds of millions but they won't be able to wipe out all life like you are claiming. There is virtually zero chance they would get off without at least the majority of their arsenal being stopped given the amount of scrutiny the world is putting on them and they know it.

Russia exports oil pretty much as the majority of its income, that ends with the sanctions massively, Russia imports the parts to run their oil refineries, governments and all, that also ends with sanctions. The world mainly loses out on wheat and oil. Russia loses out on the technology to run their refineries and their farming equipment as they can't make them themselves currently and lack the infrastructure to make it. You give Russia way too much credit here.

Russia can expand their pipeline through places that allow it which is fewer and further between and have little to no trust for Russia now.

And those states that will suffer a prolonged embargo will suffer much worse without that embargo and they know it. Them going back to Russia would be very short sighted and damaging to them long term. Not every other nation is as stupid of Florida is in the United States. Going back to a state that has already proven they will attack you, turn their backs on their agreements, and intend on taking over as much as they can would be the stupid play for them to go with.

The nations of the world can definitely rebuild around cutting out Russia, including the wheat they get from them. China only cares about a weakened Russia so long as it benefits them. And Russia's actions already put China's actions under a microscope given the information we have about what China wants with Taiwan and how they worked out with Russia to delay the original push. A weakened Russia doesn't help China as much when it's put China under more scrutiny because of their relation to Russia. And a broken Russia that was forced to give China the contested lands is very much within China's interests. And a Russia that limps along for the next 10 years and collapses after they have long outlived their usefulness doesn't work against China's interests at all. And the stuff with Russia right now wouldn't cause them to collapse overnight I would think. And if it does collapse, that is still a lot of attention on them to make sure their nuclear stuff isn't sold off to 3rd world terrorists or Proud Boys.

And most of the world has nothing to fear from Russia? You seriously going with that? Russia, who has killed multiple people on foreign soil, who has attacked multiple nations to weaken them, has invaded a foreign power and let slip their intentions when they thought it would be a 48 hour invasion, and threatened to nuke the world if they didn't get their way. You saying the world has no reason to fear them getting power? I got a bridge to sell you. The moment the United States starts saying they will nuke Canada, Mexico, or anywhere else if they get in our way is also the same time the entire world starts to really see the US as a direct threat to them as well.

Do I expect global sanctions to last 20 years? All of them, no. Most of them, most likely given the long history of this will be remembered for at least that long and the main ones enforcing it will have vested interests in keeping it active from the United States to Europe and will actively start punishing those who violate it by cutting them out for the long term safety of the nations and its people. And they don't need to last for a full 20 years, after 10 years internal combustion engines are no longer made and the renewables market will continue to grow with most companies having found alternatives that aren't Russia with little reason to invest in those trade deals given the PR of dealing with them along with the lower return on investment of a broke country that can't afford to pay its debts and has a history of not honoring their deals.

Face it man, Russia are like a broke, broken version of the Ferengi from Star Trek, they are not to be trusted and do not honor any agreement unless it costs them more not to. To work with them is for the country involved to effectively be making a deal with the devil and hoping they won't stab you in the back at the slightest opportunity. There is a reason why America will be stuck rebuilding our international reputation after the events of Trump and the GOP.

[Flarelaine]

Still, the idea of ethnic Ukrainians happening to have access to what is, what, half a dozen structures and all deciding to praise the gods of fire within 2-3 days of each other seems a bit much to swallow for me. Regardless of my misgivings, there's clearly more to this even if I doubt we ever learn the truth.

There are millions of ethnic Ukrainians in Russia and all it takes is a job in one of these plants. Even a maintenance-level one.

[Makabreska]

Welp, Le Pen lost. As expected. Time to pay up that Russian loan?

[Arrashi]

Looks like Macron won. Nice. You guys think puttler will finally call him for once?

[Warning]

No amount of Western support is going to bring back the people that the Russians have murdered, and it will be generations before the scars of this fade. I'm not trying to knock Ukraine here at all, they didn't choose this war to begin with, and what they have achieved so far has exceeded all expectations. But I don't think any amount of spin will make this war a GOOD thing for Ukraine, just a thing that could have been much much worse. And I think that's important for the rest of us to keep in mind. Assuming that Russia is pushed out, Ukraine is saved, after all the parties and cheering is done there will be decades worth of rebuilding a shattered land to do. If we're serious about helping the country we need to maintain support over the long haul, and not just forget about them a week after the last bomb drops like the public kinda has a habit of doing. "We won" has a sense of being finished, but that CAN'T be the end point.

No of course, I realize my first post came across as a little cold outside of context. It was made in line with the video you replied to originally. In that video the concept of "winning" a war is considered in the sense of strengthening one's geopolitical situation. In that sense, Ukraine CAN still win, ending up in the EU or NATO or both, now with a neutered Russia as its neighbor. The human cost of course can never be excused or made up for and I agree we have a duty to help Ukraine immensely after the war.

[Rasulis]

You assume military aid, all they need to do is buy their gas and oil as they are doing right now, India started buying more recently.

In response to that, I'll just repost my previous post.

Why Asia won’t replace EU as Russia’s crude destination - Page 5 Credit Suisse March 31, 2022 Analysis.

Shipping used to be about minimizing the time it takes to get commodities from producers to consumers. Time at sea is a function of sea routes, and different sea routes correspond to different types of vessels. In the case of oil, for example, the three main types of vessels are VLCC,Suezmax, and Aframax vessels. VLCCs(very large crude carriers) carry 2million barrels and are used for long-haul voyages. There are about 800 VLCCs in the world. Suezmax refers to tankers that are capable of passing through the Suez Canal in a laden condition. Suezmax
tankers carry 1 million barrels on long-haul voyages. There are 700 of them. Aframax vessels are “go-fast boats” in comparison, shuttling 600,000 barrels on short-haul trips. There are about 600 Aframax carriers in the world. All this detail is important to know when the flow of oil and in particular, the flow of Russian oil is disrupted. If you trade STIR and cared about money fund reform, you need to follow “oil flow reform” too (reform due to sanctions, not SEC rules).

VLCCs and banks’ LCLoR are interrelated. This is how:

Oil from Russia (Urals) gets loaded on Aframax carrie rs at the Port of Primorsk or the Port of Ust Luga to then be shipped on short shuttle runs to Hamburg and Rotterdam. But if Europe boycotts Russian oil, Russia will have to ship its oil to Asia through much less-efficient routes. Oil must be pumped, oil fields don’t like to be turned off and on, and there are no new pipelines to Asia. Storage capacity can accommodate excess production in Russia for a while, but when storage facilities fill up, oil will have to get moved. Without pipelines, the only way Russian oil can be moved over to China will be through vessels, and this is where things get complicated: it’s uneconomical to transport crude on long-haul voyages on Aframax carriers. If Europe no longer wants Russian oil and Russian oil needs an outlet, and that outlet is a buyer in China (see here), China will need more VLCC carriers to get oil from Primorsk and Ust Luga.

Now the details.

Roughly 1.3 million barrels of oil get shipped from Primorsk and Ust Luga to Europe on Aframax carriers, and these journeys take a week or two to complete. If Russia now needs to move the same amount of oil not to Europe but China, the first logistical problem it face
s is that it can’t load Urals onto VLCCs in Primorsk or Ust Luga because those ports aren’t deep enough to dock VLCCs. Russia will first have to sail Aframax vessels to a port for STS crude transfer (ship-to-ship crude transfer) onto VLCCs. STS crude transfer takes weeks, and after the transfer is done, the VLCC will sail two months east, discharge, and go back to the Baltics, which will also take two months. Conservatively, Russian crude traveled about a week or two before it fueled economic activity(the time it took to sail smaller Aframax carriers from Primorsk to Hamburg) and now will have to travel at least four months before it fuels economic activity.

Worse, it’s not just the time to market that’s getting worse, but we also end up with a ship shortage and a corresponding surge in shipping freight rates: consider that we are still using the same number of Aframax ships as before but now as links in a longer intermediation chain
(the STS crude transfer bit), and we now also need 80 VLCCs to get the oil to the final consumer in China. 80 VLCCs are basically the product of the new, longer shipping routes to China: the logic is that instead of taking a week or so to move the oil to consumers, oil will now take at least 120 days (two months plus two months = four months) to transport, and so 1.3 million barrels per day (which is 75% of a VLCC’s load times 120 days over 2 million barrels ship size is 78 VLCCs in permanent use!

The 80 VLCCs the world will soon be short of represent about 10% of the world’s VLCC capacity, which includes 50 VLCCs that are Iranian flag vessels (NIOC) that are currently being used for floating storage, so the re-routing of Russian crude oil will encumber more than 10% of the global VLCC capacity.

It gets more complicated.

TL;DR - In the time it took Russia to deliver a single shipment of crude to Asia, China and India could have received 5 - 6 shipments from Australia & the Middle East, and 3 shipments from US. Russia’s crude may be cheaper, but the much longer delivery time, shipping cost (tankers are charged by the day) and insurance (longer routes cost more) add up to the final cost.

Secondary problem - China’s Covid lockdown. China’s refineries output went down 900,000 barrels per day in March (6.3% of average production on the previous months). The lockdown has since grown to encompass around 400 millions of Chinese citizens. Double March’s peak number. Expect China’s crude demand to decline even further in April.

The amount of crude that India bought from Russia is less than the amount of Russian crude consumed by EU in a single day.

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[MENTION=669455]Russia can expand their pipeline through places that allow it which is fewer and further between and have little to no trust for Russia now.

There is another problem to this. Although the large-diameter pipelines for Power of Siberia gas pipeline and ESPO crude pipeline were manufactured domestically, the manufacturing equipment were provided by Nucor. Which is an American company. Other sources of large diameter pipeline manufacturing equipment (Japan and South Korea) are allies of the US.

[PhaelixWW]

Russia CLAIMS it has 1,500 active warheads. Russia claims a lot of stuff. What of that have been independently verified?

Counterpoint: Russia CLAIMS it got rid of most of the 45,000 stockpile it had in the 80's. But, as you say, Russia claims a lot of stuff.

Also, Russia is supposed to have about 6,000 nuclear weapons in total. START only mandates a maximum of 1,550 of them be deployed at a time.

I am taking this seriously, I am also being as objective about it as I can be. I know Russia can nuke and potentially kill hundreds of millions but they won't be able to wipe out all life like you are claiming. There is virtually zero chance they would get off without at least the majority of their arsenal being stopped given the amount of scrutiny the world is putting on them and they know it.

It wouldn't necessarily take an awful lot of hits to trigger a nuclear winter and kill off every human on the planet.

[Fugus]

There is another problem to this. Although the large-diameter pipelines for Power of Siberia gas pipeline and ESPO crude pipeline were manufactured domestically, the manufacturing equipment were provided by Nucor. Which is an American company. Other sources of large diameter pipeline manufacturing equipment (Japan and South Korea) are allies of the US.

Thank you for that, I was trying to point out that while Russia exports wheat and oil, that the equipment that handles their production they have to import and can't manufacture themselves, so these sanctions not only hit their ability to sell stuff but also kills their ability to even pump or grow it to begin with.

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It wouldn't necessarily take an awful lot of hits to trigger a nuclear winter and kill off every human on the planet.

Kill off a lot or even most, I can see that, kill off every human on the planet, that I have trouble seeing. As for Nuclear Winter itself, any idea how many nuclear detonations it would take to spark such an event?

But Russian officials would more likely shoot Putin themselves before signing onto that fate. While Russian officials and soldiers have no issues with killing and raping civilians, they will have much harder issues when those civilians are their own families.