Russian invasion of Ukraine

[PhaelixWW]

Looks like Russia has lost another ship; this time one of the two Serna-class landing crafts in the Black Sea fleet, sunk at Snake Island by a drone strike.

[P for Pancetta]

PetroChina has no plan to buy extra Russian fuel at discount: CFO

WTH? I thought China is going scoop up all the cheap Russian crude?

The truth that has been left out is that China already got all the Russian oil they wanted dirt-cheap before Russia even invaded Ukraine. Realistically they were never going to buy much more.

Also some Russians have send an email to various government officials with a list of demands and bunch of pictures with which what looks like IED's placed near bridges and train tracks.

[Corvus]

Looks like Russia has lost another ship; this time one of the two Serna-class landing crafts in the Black Sea fleet, sunk at Snake Island by a drone strike.

They've been loosing so much stuff recently at Snake Island.

[Iphie]

Also some Russians have send an email to various government officials with a list of demands and bunch of pictures with which what looks like IED's placed near bridges and train tracks.

Are you implying domestic terrorism? An uprising?

[P for Pancetta]

Are you implying domestic terrorism? An uprising?

Domestic terrorism has been an issue for Russia since the start esp in Belarus. Russia keeps saying most accidents are accidents, but a day after they claimed a recruitment office burned down because of faulty wiring a video was posted on telegram showing a guy throwing a bunch of Molotov cocktails into the building at night.


Although I'd say a full scale uprising seems very unlikely at this point. But often those things are very difficult to predict before they've happened.

[Gaidax]

There won't be any uprising anytime soon, for that to happen time needs to pass. Right now there is a lot of patriotic fervor and uniting around the flag going on, this will pass soon enough, but for now it holds the ship afloat.

It will take few years at least for economy to deteriorate and military casualties and horror stories to get to sufficient amount to be obvious to all and impossible to hide/talk down. Then there may be change.

Anything sooner than that could only probably be accomplished by some sort of coup led by the inner circle, rather than public discontent. This coup so soon may not be popular, so maybe that's a reason why it's not happening just yet.

[Iphie]

...Anything sooner than that could only probably be accomplished by some sort of coup led by the inner circle, rather than public discontent. This coup so soon may not be popular, so maybe that's a reason why it's not happening just yet.

There's also the question of preparation time and opportunity, if memory serves the prep against Gorbachev took 11 months and against Khrushchev 6-7 months. Even if it was popular you can't just do it willy-nilly.

[Gaidax]

There's also the question of preparation time and opportunity, if memory serves the prep against Gorbachev took 11 months and against Khrushchev 6-7 months. Even if it was popular you can't just do it willy-nilly.

Naturally, it's not some half a dozen dudes deciding they just go for it out of blue. They'd need at the very least feasible military and/or security agencies support and they need favorable public opinion too.

Nobody wants to be this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_S...%A9tat_attempt

[zorkuus]

Looks like Russia has lost another ship; this time one of the two Serna-class landing crafts in the Black Sea fleet, sunk at Snake Island by a drone strike.

Njet, fake news! They only have submarines in the area.

[Corvus]

All may not be well in the Russian military-industrial complex. Low wages, mass layoffs, inability to meet orders...

[Iphie]

Njet, fake news! They only have submarines in the area.

Speaking of which, has there ever been any confirmation about the Makarov? According to the BBC there has been none and I haven't seen any either after the initial reporting.

[Azadina]

All may not be well in the Russian military-industrial complex. Low wages, mass layoffs, inability to meet orders...

No worries. As the article mentions:

With the factories closed, however, the workers are given one of two choices: Go on unpaid leave or join the Russian army to serve in the war with Ukraine, preferably as a SAM operator, and get a monthly salary of 50,000 rubles (around $600).

They have great job opportunities and fantastical salary as one of two choices when laid off.

[Collegeguy]

All may not be well in the Russian military-industrial complex. Low wages, mass layoffs, inability to meet orders...

Maybe Russia should stop trying to compete with the US militarily when it should be competing with Brazil.

[Mihalik]

The telegram channel run by the Wagner Nazi group is saying that unless there is mobilisation they will loose the war and to win they will need six to eight hundred thousand troops.

https://mobile.twitter.com/RALee85/s...k4Sw5R-R2HG-vw

A month or so ago when the first reports were coming out about production lines being shut off, I remember I was being told by our resident Fog of War experts that Russia is more than capable of ramping up production and replace it's losses.

I mean I guess they could always dust off the trusty old T34.

[Cynep]

It is really simple and as I mentioned before like umpteenth times.

1) Crimea goes to Russia.
2) "Republics" stay up in the air like before the war.
3) Some sort of reparations for sanctions relief scheme.

That would probably be best case scenario for Ukraine in the next several years, because it would mean Russia would clear off Mariupol and Kherson areas.

Ukraine then can bide its time and maybe get either back if political situation in Russia changes the right way. Though I doubt Russia will give up Crimea even if Putin is not a thing anymore, unless some super pro-Western coup happens.

I am sure Ukrainian negotiators gun for the above outcome, because realistically it would be a win - it would mean Russia started a war and did not manage to get shit and left worse off than before. Ukraine can sell it at home with "temporarily occupied" remarks and such.

And we're back two months in the past... You forgot one more point:
4) Hardliners hang Zelensky on the nearest tree for treason and forfeit of territorial integrity.

Here's my counter-offer, let's see who will be closer to truth when the talks finally happen:
0) Russian official claims Kherson will never return to Ukraine, Ukrainian president claims negotiations will only happen after that. Meaning, timeframe is "not soon".
1) Illegally occupied Crimea will remain illegally occupied for the duration of the ceasefire, it won't ever be accepted as a part of Russia. (nothing personal, Russia won't be allowed a win)
2) There will be negotiations about temporarily occupied parts of Donbass, Ukraine will demand them, Russia will be in a tough spot because they recognized them as independent.
3) Important sanctions will remain in place for as long as any of the above remains occupied. Possibly sanctions will remain for as long as Russia vainly keeps comparing itself to "the West".

[Makabreska]

Man, love seeing Putler having to apologize Israel for Lavrov.

[Mayhem]

snip

it has English subtitles, so that's something

[Iphie]

Ukraine is reporting that ALL women, children and elderly people have been evacuated from Azovstal, Red Cross and UN are not yet confirming. Zelenskyy is trying to get the soldiers out as well.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-61343815

Link is the Live update so it might no longer be the top item.

All women, children and the elderly evacuated from Azovstal, Ukraine's Deputy PM says
Ukraine's Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk said on her Telegram channel that all women, children and the elderly have been evacuated from the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol.

Earlier this week it was estimated that 200 civilians were still trapped inside the plant - the last remaining Ukrainian stronghold in the city.

[Mihalik]

Ukraine is reporting that ALL women, children and elderly people have been evacuated from Azovstal, Red Cross and UN are not yet confirming. Zelenskyy is trying to get the soldiers out as well.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-61343815

Link is the Live update so it might no longer be the top item.

Here's the thing. If the Russians weren't murdering maniacs, they could just say -We'll let the UN evacuate the soldiers too.

Then spin it domestically (because foreign opinion is irrelevant ) as -The Great Russian military defeated the Ukrainians in Mariupol but allowed the remaining soldiers to evacuate in order to stabilize the city and redirect forces to more strategic objectives.

[Evil Midnight Bomber]

Domestic terrorism has been an issue for Russia since the start esp in Belarus. Russia keeps saying most accidents are accidents, but a day after they claimed a recruitment office burned down because of faulty wiring a video was posted on telegram showing a guy throwing a bunch of Molotov cocktails into the building at night.

The "faulty wiring" must have been in the sprinkler system...