Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Santti]

Wasn't the first steps before WW2 with Germany being told not to invade Poland? That was basically the line that got drawn and they still did it and it turned into WW2? How will this not lead into WW3? This is basically a repeat of back then. Which is scary to look at.

Not only that, now we have nukes.

There was quite a lot more happening than that before Poland got invaded. And nukes are most definitely not going to get used over Ukraine.

[Elegiac]

so... they're really going to march on Kiev or more posturing in regions that won't put up a fuss over Russian soldiers running around? because if it's the former then I struggle to see how a hot war with the rest or Europe and the US isn't going to devastate what little is left of Russia's economy. or they really think NATO/Biden will whiff and allow that to happen.

I posted this in another thread and I'll repost it here since this is manifestly a discussion of folly on Putain's part:

The peculiarity of the whole affair was its needlessness, and this underlines two characteristics of folly: it often does not spring from a great design, and its consequences are frequently a surprise. The folly lies in persisting thereafter. With acute if unwitting significance, a French historian wrote of the Revocation [of the Edict of Nantes] that “Great designs are rare in politics; the King proceeded empirically and sometimes impulsively.” His point is reinforced from an unexpected source in a perceptive comment by Ralph Waldo Emerson, who cautioned, “In analyzing history do not be too profound, for often the causes are quite superficial.”

This is a factor usually overlooked by political scientists who, in discussing the nature of power, always treat it, even when negatively, with immense respect. They fail to see it as sometimes a matter of ordinary men walking into water over their heads, acting unwisely or foolishly or perversely as people in ordinary circumstances frequently do. The trappings and impact of power deceive us, endowing the possessors with a quality larger than life. Shorn of his tremendous curled peruke, high heels and ermine, the Sun King was a man subject to misjudgment, error and impulse—like you and me.

[YUPPIE]

then the usual alliance of Japan, Australia etc.

why is Japan one of the US's closest allies after WW2 again? Nothing tenuous about it...

[zealo]

Turkey is gonna betray NATO the moment it will lead into WW3. China will join Russia, So will Iran.
And then we will have global war. Scary to think off, but seems most likely tbf.

On our side, we probably have India who is gonna join NATO & America and then the usual alliance of Japan, Australia etc.

Aside from the nonsense of a world war sparking from this, Turkey is never going to side with Russia so directly.

Russia’s relationship to Turkey have never been particularily warm, and that’s putting it mildly.

[Elegiac]

Shocking that they didn't have anything like that already.

They do, this is specifically for the newly invaded regions.

You're asking for governments to produce natural gas out of thin air.

No, I'm asking them to nut up and shoulder a slightly higher price tag for getting the gas from elsewhere or shifting to alternative energy sources rather than fob the cost onto Ukrainian civilians because 'government is hard'.

why is Japan one of the US's closest allies after WW2 again? Nothing tenuous about it...

Yes, there is nothing tenuous about it. Japan's opposition to the US during WWII was largely a function of their designs on European colonial possessions in Asia rather than actual antipathy towards the US.

Or are we just gonna pretend the first half of the Showa period wasn't an aberration?

[Fuiking]

Russia should only extend to help brethren if they are under threat, not pick fights where there are no brethren or threats. Poland has basically no minorities n no issues with Russia, no issues but those Poland make up just cuz they are jelly that Russia is the big slavic country n poland will never be that...it's shameful how bitter Polish people are, let them stew in their self-inflicted misery...

shameful? You shit on them during The Deluge, you shit on them after ww1 and ww2, you shit all over them with katyn massacres, you shit on them during the Warsaw Uprising. And you dare to call there bitterness shameful?

[uuuhname]

I posted this in another thread and I'll repost it here since this is manifestly a discussion of folly on Putain's part:

alright, I just assume at least one other Russian billionaire in the room would point out how an all out war would not be in their best interests from a money making point of view.

[Jessicka]

Missing entirely that the point of it is to make occupying those regions a financial liability for Russia East Ukraine by precluding foreign investment to fund policing and infrastructure.

Once again, the intelligence community does in fact know more about foreign affairs than your favorite YouTuber.

Oh they absolutely know more than I do, but also remember that diplomats are literally paid to come up with arcane solutions that look way bigger than they actually are. This is not the Nord Stream stuff you were demanding a page or two ago, and it does hurt the people in the separatist regions more than it hurts literally anyone else. Diplomats, and intelligence services especially, are not renowned for compassion either. They're not dealing with 'little people', they don't matter.

[Elegiac]

alright, I just assume at least one other Russian billionaire in the room would point out how an all out war would not be in their best interests from a money making point of view.

Being an aristocrat doesn't absolve one of the need to flatter the Tsar and his whims.

Oh they absolutely know more than I do

All that needs to be said. I've explained to you the purpose of these particular sanctions and they are not mutually exclusive with what I suggested, nor am I any more ignorant of the human cost than I was when supporting sanctions on any other shitty regime be it Israel or South Africa.

[Shalcker]

They do, this is specifically for the newly invaded regions.

They have been considered "occupied by Russia" the entire time.

No, I'm asking them to nut up and shoulder a slightly higher price tag for getting the gas from elsewhere or shifting to alternative energy sources rather than fob the cost onto Ukrainian civilians.

There is no "getting gas somewhere" in required volumes. Not without years-long lag.

Production is balanced with consumption, and Russia is #2 producer in the world (and it isn't even close with #3 which is Iran)

[Jessicka]

All that needs to be said.

So why are you happy, after making such massive demands literally in the last couple of hours, that this is even remotely comparable? Do you really have that much trust in it?

[Elegiac]

So why are you happy

You'll need to point out where exactly I said these sanctions were sufficient and that I'm okay with them as an alternative to what I suggested.

What's that? I didn't, and you're attacking a strawman argument because someone doesn't ascribe to "US government bad" as the response to any and every situation? Groundbreaking.

-snip-

I said what I said: I'm not going to endlessly restate the same argument and especially not with someone who'll still be insisting that everything's fine even at the point UN forces are literally shelling Moscow.

[Gimlix]

Aside from the nonsense of a world war sparking from this, Turkey is never going to side with Russia so directly.

Russia’s relationship to Turkey have never been particularily warm, and that’s putting it mildly.

Neither has Turkey really been with NATO lets be honest here. I still feel like they would betray NATO at any spot they will. Atleast with Erdogan in charge.

[Jessicka]

You'll need to point out where exactly I said these sanctions were sufficient and that I'm okay with them as an alternative to what I suggested.

What's that? I didn't, and you're attacking a strawman argument because someone doesn't ascribe to "US government bad" as the response to any and every situation? Groundbreaking.

I pointed out that they're mostly going to hurt civilians in an occupied territory, by like a lot, rather than the Russian government; but you felt compelled to jump in their defence with stuff about how "intelligence services made them", as if that actually changes anything about who they impact. So am I to assume now you're not happy with them?

[uuuhname]

Neither has Turkey really been with NATO lets be honest here. I still feel like they would betray NATO at any spot they will. Atleast with Erdogan in charge.

I really do not get these takes about people in positions of power ignoring material reality.

[Elegiac]

I pointed out that they're mostly going to hurt civilians in an occupied territory, by like a lot, rather than the Russian government; but you felt compelled to jump in their defence with stuff about how "intelligence services made them", as if that actually changes anything about who they impact. So am I to assume now you're not happy with them?

By actually reading what I typed rather than making inane inferences.

The people making these decisions are, for the most part, also aware of the human costs - the difference is that the nature of the field (i.e. international relations) invariably requires weighing two sets of human costs, not "human cost or no human cost".

Because the alternative is allowing Putain to profit from annexation of additional territory, thus providing incentive to annex even more. And I'm fairly sure the civilians in those areas also need to be accounted for in the equation if your concern is actually civilian welfare and not just taking shots at US foreign policy because Iraq happened.

[Gimlix]

I really do not get these takes about people in positions of power ignoring material reality.

What is the point of taking Ukraine? Power Hungry from Russia only. NATO is no worry at all when it comes to neighbour country.
Putin rather has sanctions and a worse economy instead of Ukraine deciding for themself.

Like a madman leader in charge can do very odd things that make no sense. Erdogan is one of them.

Like there are few leaders who are on same line when it comes how they view human rights and free speech. Example China. That is why it's a scary thought how the world is getting divided in 2 world powers that have a very different view.

America & Europe vs Russia & China

Lets hope things get settled. Things can go very bad quite quickly.

[Shalcker]

What is the point of taking Ukraine? Power Hungry from Russia only.

Ukraine blocked any resolution of Donbass. Even when Russia basically shoved it back to them with Minsk agreements.

Once Donbass is resolved - in any way - and stop being hotspot (even if it means Russia crushes every Ukrainian attempt to stir anything with overwhelming force - like it did with Georgia) everyone can eventually move on (as everyone did after 8.8.8 - notice presence and even a word about it from Medvedev in Russian Security Council meeting).

NATO is no worry at all when it comes to neighbour country.

Russia have been complaining about NATO expansion the entire time. From 90's to today it always was an issue. Now Russia simply feels strong enough to do something about it - and NATO weak enough (given obvious US weakness and constant US efforts to make everyone in NATO dependent on them) for Russia to get away with it.

Putin rather has sanctions and a worse economy instead of Ukraine deciding for themself.

He sees even bad resolution as better option then no resolution (given how 8 years of "no resolution" went).

[Ihavewaffles]

All this talk about "invasion" by the same people that have been saying Russia invaded since the conflict began 8 years ago, so Russia has invaded their invasion???

So are you admitting now that it was really locals in Donbass that were fighting all these years?
I mean hasn't that mean your main goal, to avoid admitting that the locals had legit grievances against maidan coup? So all these years you said it was Russia's forces that were fighting, the Donbass locals were invisible all these 8 years...

My complaint is that it took 8 years for Putin to finally act...Ukraine have been shelling civilians these past 8 years...when on paper there was supposed to be a peace agreement, the Ukrainians never stopped artillery shelling civilians...I hope the Russian forces now respond to any such behavior, immediately n severely.

[Elegiac]

All this talk about "invasion" by the same people that have been saying Russia invaded since the conflict began 8 years ago, so Russia has invaded their invasion???

You do realise Crimea and the area around Donbas are like... different locations, right? You do understand that Ukraine is a fairly big place and that invading a second part of it still constitutes an invasion, yeah? Or like... there's a difference between funding insurgents in that second part and sending regular military forces into it, and that it constitutes an escalation? Surely no one can be this utterly divorced from reality--

My complaint is that it took 8 years for Putin to finally act...Ukraine have been shelling civilians these past 8 years...

On second thought, you probably don't if you're falling for Putain's false flag act. RIP.