Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Santti]

So the ruskis are now installing Pantsir systems on the roofs' of buildings in Moscow.

Oh wow. I can't help but wonder why, though? It says Anti-Aircraft, can it shoot down missiles? Can't imagine Ukraine sending planes anywhere near Moscow. Seems a little panicky and foolish to me. It's not going to send a pretty picture to Russians, plus, I'm not sure Ukraine would strike Moscow either way, even if they had the ability. International support for Ukraine would likely suffer for it. There are probably better, militarily relevant targets for such missiles as well.

[Elder Millennial]

And at that, both of those are very modern systems.

The PzH2000 can also do this.

Pretty much any modern self propelled artillery with an autoloader can do this as the fire control systems adjust the aim for simultaneous hits. The PzH2k can drop like 10 to 13 rounds (depending on range) on the same spot at a time, taking up about a minute to fire them off. Tho it's usually used in 3 round bursts that are shot off in like 10 seconds, the guns are very rarely used to fire off more than that for several reasons. If 3 rounds weren't enough to kill something, 10 probably won't do the trick either, it burns through ammo, and the 155mm artillery ammo isn't exactly what we'd call abundant, and it burns through barrels, servicing this stuff is expensive and spare parts aren't that abundant either, it's been a problem with the PhZ2k.

The advantage of a system like Archer over the Phz2K is that it's much much lighter (weights about half of a PhZ). So it does better on road (especially on country and dirt roads as tracked vehicles tend to rip that up), easier to move around, service, take apart etc.

They aren't necessarily better than the PhZs, but they are a good addition, especially from a logistics point of view. It will also allow the Ukrainians to pull some of the PhZs off the line, and have them fixed, it will also allow them to focus the PhZs out in the boonies in mud fields and forests where the wheels on the Archer might not do that well.

I've been getting increasingly annoyed by how the media seems to be obsessed with the buzzword "game changer". Nothing is a "game changer", the term has become a meaningless tautology that is thrown at every weapon, weapon system, sanction etc with the implication that this thing will substantially alter the nature of this conflict and will be "the thing" that brings Ukraine final victory.

Yes, these systems have each altered the conditions of the war and the conditions on the battlefield, but none of them will single handed send the Russians packing. The fact remains that this conflict will still have to be duked out in the mud and on the streets and what each of these system will do is to level the playing field and possibly finally tilt the scale in Ukraine's favor, but the media touting every single fucking gun, missile, anti air thing, anti tank thing, car, truck, armor vehicle etc as some magical super weapon is getting real problematic as people who don't understand how this works are becoming frustrated and confused about Ukraine not having won yet despite all these magical "game changing" weapons they were being given.

I remember it was the White House back around March that started using the term, (it's a super popular buzzword in the defense industry) but then the media took it and ran with it and it has become a really worn out term that's now actually causing more harm than good on the long run.

These unrealistic expectations around "game changers" also tie into how the public perception shifts from "Ukraine is winning" to "Ukraine is losing" every single time if Ukraine is not actively winning large battles or taking huge chunks of ground. Like this whole Soledar debacle, it's a small tactical victory...at best...hell even finally taking Bakhmut would only be a small tactical victory, but the Ukrainians are now in this catch 22 situation where they have to be constantly worried about public perception in the west turning against them if they dare do a strategic or tactical retreat, which might actually on the long term be hugely favorable for Ukraine.

I'm honestly getting increasingly concerned that the Ukrainians are getting too invested in Bakhmut due to PR concerns.

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Oh wow. I can't help but wonder why, though? It says Anti-Aircraft, can it shoot down missiles? Can't imagine Ukraine sending planes anywhere near Moscow. Seems a little panicky and foolish to me. It's not going to send a pretty picture to Russians, plus, I'm not sure Ukraine would strike Moscow either way, even if they had the ability. International support for Ukraine would likely suffer for it. There are probably better, militarily relevant targets for such missiles as well.

The fact that they could hit Engels shows that they have something that can reach Moscow.

Could the Ukrainians hit Moscow? Probably.

Would government buildings in Moscow be a legitimate target? Arguably yes.

Would the Ukrainians actually risk hitting civilians in a major urban center inside Russia? I don't think so.

This is either part of some Russian false flag thing, or is just meant to instill the fear of the "Barbarians at the gates" into the Russian public in an effort to frame this whole thing as an existential conflict.

[Canpinter]

No way Ukraine risks potentially causing civilian casualties in Russia. They can't afford to lose any support from western powers.

[Gorsameth]

I don't think Ukraine would do it either, but the fact Russia feels the need to put additional AA defences in Moscow sure makes it seem like Russia is somewhat scared, justified or not.

[jonnysensible]

I don't think Ukraine would do it either, but the fact Russia feels the need to put additional AA defences in Moscow sure makes it seem like Russia is somewhat scared, justified or not.

internal coup protection

[Makabreska]

internal coup protection

Gotta be mindful of dem air threats!

[Iphie]

Gotta be mindful of dem air threats!

Look, I'm NOT saying Wanker SS has access to planes, but I did hear some of those wankers were flying sorties in Ukraine...

[Kallisto]

I wouldn't be surprised if that was a private purchase from an oligarch either, paranoid about something. Don't those missiles only have a range of something like 10 miles as well?

[YUPPIE]

Moscow itself has nothing to fear. Nothing will attack or get into the sanctuary of Moscow.

That's Russia's greatest advantage.

[Xyonai]

Moscow itself has nothing to fear. Nothing will attack or get into the sanctuary of Moscow.

That's Russia's greatest advantage.

Less because no one has the capacity to level Moscow and more because there's no point to it. Which kind of describe's the West's feeling towards Russia in general in a sense.

[Corvus]

The Pantsir in Moscow is almost certainly internal propaganda, trying to scare the local population so they are more likely to volunteer/less likely to resist mobilisation.

[Santti]

The Pantsir in Moscow is almost certainly internal propaganda, trying to scare the local population so they are more likely to volunteer/less likely to resist mobilisation.

That's how they are going to sell it for sure, and it might work, at least to some degree. I guess I'd have to be Russian to properly understand it. But as an outsider, it just makes Russia look weak and scared. Russia is supposed to be the strong one, but I guess trying to project that image has become a rather hard sell, after humiliation after humiliation.

[YUPPIE]

That's how they are going to sell it for sure, and it might work, at least to some degree. I guess I'd have to be Russian to properly understand it. But as an outsider, it just makes Russia look weak and scared. Russia is supposed to be the strong one, but I guess trying to project that image has become a rather hard sell, after humiliation after humiliation.

Not "strong," but people are definitely afraid of Russia now. What with the killing, torture, raping, and the fact they're letting dangerous convicts - even from death row - on the frontline now.

[Edge-]

Not "strong," but people are definitely afraid of Russia now.

What are they afraid Russia is going to do? Sink some of their own (Russian) boats in their waters and declare victory?

[YUPPIE]

What are they afraid Russia is going to do?

Letting people like this on the loose.

Remember a few months ago I cited a different story about convicts that have already murdered their officers and gone AWOL...

[Xyonai]

Not "strong," but people are definitely afraid of Russia now. What with the killing, torture, raping, and the fact they're letting dangerous convicts - even from death row - on the frontline now.

We're afraid of them because they're the national equivalent of the dipshit white nationalists in the states. Sure if they tried to actually hit above their weight class they'd be squashed like a fucking bug, but in the time between the initial attack to the point where they're turned into a fine past a lot of innocent people will be hurt or killed.

The word here isn't fear, it's contempt.

[Edge-]

Letting people like this on the loose.

Remember a few months ago I cited a different story about convicts that have already murdered their officers and gone AWOL...

...and? He wants to fight, so what? The article gives no indication that he's been released, much less sent to the front lines.

How effective do you think his skillset will be in an actual firefight? Do you think other soldiers are going to be inclined to want to serve alongside him and trust him?

[Elder Millennial]

Moscow itself has nothing to fear. Nothing will attack or get into the sanctuary of Moscow.

That's Russia's greatest advantage.

And you are basing that on?

If Ukraine can reach Engels and hit Engels, Russia's primary military air force base and nuclear bomber base, what makes you think "nothing will get to Moscow"?

Ukraine not choosing to hit Moscow, and not being able to hit Moscow are two completely different things.

[Corvus]

So little Estonia has really stepped up. They have contributed 1% of their GDP to aid Ukraine. That is what happens when you have an existential threat sitting on your doorstep. For comparison, the US has contributed 0.08%. The US still remains by far the largest donor though, with another reported massive package on the way, ready to mock pootie's tiny package.

[YUPPIE]

And you are basing that on?

No, I mean we can definitely hit Moscow. Easily at that. We just don't because of what that entails.

I was never implying Moscow would be difficult to hit because of security, militaristic, or technological reasons.

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How effective do you think his skillset will be in an actual firefight? Do you think other soldiers are going to be inclined to want to serve alongside him and trust him?

nah he won't fight, he's gonna go AWOL at the first chance he gets. That's why it's scary.