Russian invasion of Ukraine

[tylenol]

Man if the stories about the purges and russia asking China for military & economic aid are true then...rofl, absolutely pathetic, russia can't even demolish a neighboring country in a matter of days...all these decades people have been scared shitless of russia, more proof that if they didn't have nukes they'd be a laughing stock like North Korea

[Edge-]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...verage-ukraine

Fox News: The Officially Approved News Source of the Kremlin!

[snebb]

Comon guys, you should know by now to read the posts of Easo/Giadax/Yuppie/few others, roll your eyes, and move on. Spot biting.
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More OT: today was, so far, the last confirmed day of the stock market remaining closed. Shall we take bets on how long the closure will be extended for on Monday?
Can't crash if it doesn't open, amirite?

[Easo]

Have they, or have they not been targeting clearly identified press members, prior to any images of armed guards showing up?

We actually do not know. There have been only oral statements and a video of one crew getting shot at "from somewhere", as far as I am aware.

You're taking me a bit too literally, but my point remains that Russia doesn't need an excuse to shoot at journalists. They already do, even when the journalists are unarmed and not accompanied by an armed escort - https://news.sky.com/story/sky-news-...-week-12557585

So what I said, someone shot at them from somewhere. We do not even see the attackers, could have been Russians, could have been Ukrainians "catching diversants" during the madness of the first few days. Ya think shouting "Press!" means something, or that you can be identified at range? Try to shout at someone 200-400 meters away...
Let me try to explain for one last time - "Ukraine is using press vehicles to transport troops!" / "Russia are shooting journalists!" = welcome to war.

Is it really so hard for you to believe that Putin wants reporters killed to try and keep the truth from being broadcast out of Ukraine and documenting the war crimes he is ordering the Russian military commit?

During an age where everyone has a mobile phone, including the opposing army? While also not taking out the internet in the country you are invading? Nothing can be hidden nowadays, he cannot not know that.

[YUPPIE]

It feels like now people are gradually making no distinctions with "russians" and "Putin." AKA, common people vs one man.

so tell me: do you people think all Russians are evil or undeserving of pity?

[Gaidax]

Not sure if it has been posted here yet or not, but apparently Poland is planning on proposing a NATO peacekeeping mission in Ukraine.

That's just some useless brownie points fishing. NATO made it plainly clear it's not intending to get involved in anything that might put NATO members at risk.

I increasingly think that maybe it should have, but in the end it would be some seriously high stakes game of chicken and I'm not sure I want to play.

Comon guys, you should know by now to read the posts of Easo/Giadax/Yuppie/few others, roll your eyes, and move on. Spot biting.

Clearly me not pushing your favorite narrative 100% automatically disqualifies whatever I say. Cute.

[Skulltaker]

People HAVE to start believing my speculations before they always happen.

so tell me: do you people think all Russians are evil or undeserving of pity?

So, tell me, do you really think that there is a single person here who takes you or your opinion seriously?

[Easo]

Belgium is talking about the previously planned decomission of all nuclear reactors by 2025 - read, planning to extend their lifecycle due to the energy crisis. Good, very good, hopefully others will follow.

[PhaelixWW]

China has joined the fight on Russia's side. People HAVE to start believing my speculations before they always happen.

Posted this morning:

CNN: 4 ways China is quietly making life harder for Russia

China is quietly distancing itself from Russia's sanction-hit economy.

The two states proclaimed last month that their friendship had "no limits." That was before Russia launched its war in Ukraine.

Now, with Russia's economy being slammed with sanctions from all over the world, there is growing evidence that China's willingness and ability to aid its northern neighbor may be limited. Beijing has refused to condemn Russia's attack on Ukraine but wants to avoid being impacted by the sanctions it has repeatedly denounced as an ineffective way of resolving the crisis.

"China is not a party to the [Ukraine] crisis, and doesn't want the sanctions to affect China," Foreign Minister Wang Yi said Tuesday during a phone call with his Spanish counterpart.

Beijing also gave its full backing Wednesday to comments made earlier this week by China's ambassador to Ukraine. "China will never attack Ukraine. We will help, especially economically," Fan Xianrong was quoted as saying in a press release from the Lviv regional government.

Fears that Chinese companies could face US sanctions over ties with Russia had contributed to an epic sell-off in Chinese stocks recent days. That slump was reversed Wednesday when Beijing promised it would pursue policies to boost its sputtering economy and keep financial markets stable.

US officials told CNN on Monday that they have information suggesting China has expressed some openness to providing Russia with requested military and financial assistance. China dismissed that as "disinformation."

Analysts say that China is attempting to strike "a delicate balance" between supporting Russia rhetorically but without further antagonizing the United States.

Beijing and Moscow share a strategic interest in challenging the West. However, Chinese banks cannot afford to lose access to US dollars, and many Chinese industries cannot afford to be deprived of US technology.

While China is Russia's No. 1 trading partner, Beijing has other priorities. Trade between the two countries made up just 2% of China's total trade volume. The European Union and the United States have much larger shares, according to Chinese customs statistics from last year.

Here are some measures Beijing has taken in the last few weeks to distance itself from the isolated and crumbling Russian economy.

Letting the ruble drop

Spoiler: 

China's currency, the yuan, doesn't trade completely freely, moving instead within bands set by officials at the People's Bank of China (PBOC). Last week, they doubled the size of the ruble trading range, allowing the Russian currency to fall faster.

The ruble has already lost more than 20% of its value against both the dollar and euro since the start of the war in Ukraine. By allowing the Russian currency to fall against the yuan, Beijing isn't doing Moscow any favors.

Russians will have to pay more in rubles for Chinese imports such as smartphones and cars. Chinese phone brands like Xiaomi and Huawei are hugely popular in Russia, and were vying with Apple (AAPL) and Samsung (SSNLF) for market leadership before the war.

Chinese car makers, such as Great Wall Motor and Geely Auto, occupy 7% of Russia's market, selling more than 115,000 vehicles last year. Great Wall Motor has stopped supplying new cars to dealers in Russia because of the exchange rate fluctuations.

Expanding the trading band would allow the yuan to keep up with the ruble's wild swings, so that Chinese companies can "better grasp the magnitude or trend of future exchange rate fluctuations and reduce exchange risks by using hedging methods, such as derivatives," state-owned China Business Network reported last week.

Currently, about $25 billion of China-Russia trade is conducted in yuan, Chinese state media reported.

Sitting on reserves

Spoiler: 

The most significant help China could offer Russia is through the $90 billion worth of reserves Moscow holds in yuan, wrote Alicia García-Herrero, chief economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis, in a research report on Tuesday.

Sanctions have frozen about $315 billion worth of Russia's reserves — or roughly half the total — as Western countries have banned dealing with the Russian central bank.

Russia's finance minister Anton Siluanov said this week that the country wanted to use yuan reserves after Moscow was blocked from accessing US dollars and euros, according to Russia's state media.

The PBOC has so far not made any comment about its position regarding these reserves.

If China allowed Moscow to convert its yuan reserves into US dollars or euros, "that would clearly help Russia's current impasse," García-Herrero noted. However, "the reputational risk of potentially breaching Western sanctions would be a huge step for the PBOC to take and therefore makes it highly unlikely," she said.

"The long-term gains of moving closer to Russia might not match the impact of Western investors suddenly losing interest in China," she added.

Withholding aircraft parts

Spoiler: 

Sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union mean that the world's two major aircraft makers, Boeing (BA) and Airbus (EADSF), are no longer able to supply spare parts or provide maintenance support for Russian airlines. The same is true of jet engine makers.

That means Russian airlines could run out of parts within a matter of weeks, or fly planes without having equipment replaced as frequently as recommended to operate safely.

Earlier this month, a top Russian official said that China has refused to send aircraft parts to Russia as Moscow looks for alternative supplies.

Valery Kudinov, head of aircraft airworthiness at Russia's air transport agency, was quoted by Russian state news agency Tass as saying that Russia would look for opportunities to source parts from countries including Turkey and India after a failed attempt to obtain them from China.

"As far as I know ... China refused," Kudinov was quoted as saying.

In response to CNN's request for comment, China's foreign ministry reiterated Beijing's opposition to sanctions adding that China and Russia will maintain "normal economic and trade cooperation."

China and Russia set up a civil aviation joint venture in 2017 to build a new long-haul, widebody passenger plane, seeking to rival the duopoly of Boeing and Airbus. Production of the CR929 has begun, but disagreements over suppliers have caused delays. The plane was initially expected to be offered to customers in 2024. But Russia postponed the timeline to 2028 to 2029.

Freezing infrastructure investment

Spoiler: 

The World Bank has halted all its programs in Russia and Belarus following the invasion of Ukraine. It hadn't approved any new loans or investments to Russia since 2014, and none to Belarus since 2020.

More surprisingly, perhaps, is the decision by the Beijing-based Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank to do the same. In a statement earlier this month, it said it was suspending all its activities related to Russia and Belarus "as the war in Ukraine unfolds." The move was "in the best interests" of the bank, it added.

Frustrated by a relative lack of influence at the World Bank (based in Washington, D.C.) and the Asian Development Bank (where Japan is a major force), China launched the AIIB in 2016. In addition to hosting the headquarters, China provides the president of the bank and has 26.5% of the votes. India and Russia have 7.6% and 6% respectively.

The AIIB's decision to suspend activities in Russia means $1.1 billion of approved or proposed lending aimed at improving the country's road and rail networks is now on hold.

[Zaydin]

During an age where everyone has a mobile phone, including the opposing army? While also not taking out the internet in the country you are invading? Nothing can be hidden nowadays, he cannot not know that.

Given the reports I have seen about Russian soldiers stealing/destroying Ukrainian civilians phones or taking their SIM cards...

As for why Russia hasn't taken out the internet or communications in Ukraine? It's because it's a hopelessly corrupt military and if they destroy the infrastructure in Ukraine they knee cap their own communication systems.

[Gaidax]

Posted this morning:

CNN: 4 ways China is quietly making life harder for Russia

China is trying its best to sit on both chairs and is increasingly failing to do so effectively.

The timing is inconvenient - they want Russia partnership because it's strategically important for their future goals, but they can't afford further straining ties with the West - there is still considerable dependency there.

I don't know how long they can hold out before Xi will be forced to make a call to Putin and ask him to wrap this up.

I am sure Putin is aware that clock is ticking on that front too - I bet his goal now is to take whatever is left of Mariupol, dig in and negotiate from position of relative strength. Realistically he can get that in a week or two, it's definitely doable unlike any dreams of taking Kiev.

[Rasulis]

And the big question is - will it change? It certainly is something China would wish to happen and is trying to happen, so is Russia (but clearly not viable with rouble xD) + all the other places who are not exactly allies to States/West.

China is not the first country, nor will it be the last, that tried to topple US/EU global financial hegemony. Is it a possibility? Never say never. However, it is a very steep uphill battle. The Yuan accounted for 1.9% of the currency used for international trade in 2014. After 8 years, the Chinese managed to increase it to 2.7%. With their economic growth slowing down to single digit, trying to further increase the Yuan's share of international trade will be even more difficult.

[gondrin]

So here's a personal observation that is only tangentially related to the Russian invasion.

Pop culture has lied to me.

I have sort of been conditioned by games, movies and other fiction to think of Russian/Soviet wargear as not just numerous but big, heavy, bulky, sturdy, going up against outnumbered, plucky, flimsy but high tech Western gear.

But what I've noticed taking now a harder look at most Soviet/Russian gear, is that apart from the odd oversized gun/machine gun, one off plane or bomb most of their gear isn't just old and low tech... But actually small and flimsy.

Component miniaturisation seems to elude them, basic stuff like optics, electronics etc are few and far between and are often in the hands of "militia" and political units like the Chechens rather than with front line combat units. We've seen images of Russian designated marksmen running Mosin Nagants with WW2 era scopes.

Their tanks and armored vehicles are small and seem to be extremely vulnerable. Things like reactive armor kits and such only exist on paper. Maintenence is non existent or shit's just so old that no amount of maintenance can guarantee it will run.

I remember all the airmchar Tom Clancy generals on these forums telling us how the 73736738 thousand Russian tanks could just steamroll Europe and drive into Berlin cuz Russia is stronk...(I can't be arsed to link those threads)... Well they seemingly can't drive for 100 miles from their own bases without ending up in a ditch.

Problem always has been after the Cold War ended, Russia never really kept up their military like the US or frankly most other countries that have a military.

On a side note, Russia is demanding reparations for sanctions which includes territories that were either previously part of the Russian Empire and/or the USSR. Territories like Alaska. What do Putin apologists like Carlson, Trump and other far right crazies think of that if they are "America First"? No response yet.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...edgdhp&pc=U531

[YUPPIE]

China is trying its best to sit on both chairs and is increasingly failing to do so effectively.

The timing is inconvenient - they want Russia partnership because it's strategically important for their future goals, but they can't afford further straining ties with the West - there is still considerable dependency there.

I don't know how long they can hold out before Xi will be forced to make a call to Putin and ask him to wrap this up.

I am sure Putin is aware that clock is ticking on that front too - I bet his goal now is to take whatever is left of Mariupol, dig in and negotiate from position of relative strength. Realistically he can get that in a week or two, it's definitely doable unlike any dreams of taking Kiev.

sounds like Putin is Xi's bitch or dog, which contradicts his long cultivated image of "strength" and taking shit from no one.

[Corvus]

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More OT: today was, so far, the last confirmed day of the stock market remaining closed. Shall we take bets on how long the closure will be extended for on Monday?
Can't crash if it doesn't open, amirite?

Apparently they have said it will open Monday, for reals. Unless they change their minds again.

[Gaidax]

China is not the first country, nor will it be the last, that tried to topple US/EU global financial hegemony. Is it a possibility? Never say never. However, it is a very steep uphill battle. The Yuan accounted for 1.9% of the currency used for international trade in 2014. After 8 years, the Chinese managed to increase it to 2.7%. With their economic growth slowing down to single digit, trying to further increase the Yuan's share of international trade will be even more difficult.

It is important to take into account how $$ came to be such a currency. Which was a streak of conflicts and deals, starting WW2 with US coming the biggest winner out of it and to the oil being traded in $$ a deal US cut out in 70th involving Saudis and OPEC.

It is not outside the realm of possibility that China bets/prepares for another string of turmoils that can give its currency a spotlight. There is a reason why West is VERY reluctant when it comes to full out financial sanctions - the risks are there.

[PC2]

It feels like now people are gradually making no distinctions with "russians" and "Putin." AKA, common people vs one man.

so tell me: do you people think all Russians are evil or undeserving of pity?

Do most Russians want their country to be a liberal democracy? Probably not. Those people aren't evil but they are culpable and don't deserve much pity until they change their ideology.

[PACOX]

Ok, let me put it this way - Russia sees those pictures too. Add to it probably the stupidest video from yesterday where few foreign volunteers are arriving to a battlezone in a civilian car (driver is a civilian by the looks, drives away after they hop out). I really hope that the people here who are supposedly following the war do know which video I am talking about.
What are the possible future consequences? Not that hard to guess, right...?

All this kind of reminds me of a clip that showed a US soldiers driving through Iraq while ignoring all normal traffic laws and not yielding to pedestrians
Comments were obviously critical of the soldiers until a vet pointed out how vehicles that stop often become targets and that attackers would often us civilians as cover. People forget they are observing active war zones and say whatever.

No one is siding with Russia when they point out behavior that put non-combatants in harms way.

A reporter can't just say "OMG war crime! They are shooting at me" if they are following a unit.

Report responsibly.

[Zaydin]

Apparently they have said it will open Monday, for reals. Unless they change their minds again.

It's going to crash the instant trading starts unless Putin has rigged it to not crash somehow.

[masterhorus8]

On a side note, Russia is demanding reparations for sanctions which includes territories that were either previously part of the Russian Empire and/or the USSR. Territories like Alaska.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...edgdhp&pc=U531

What a fucking joke Putin is turning into... Reparations... For the punishments for shit he started. And for a deal that his country did decades ago? Fucking el oh el.