Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Pannonian]

Well, it is realistic if you look at history. WW1 was started by the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria. Killing a Head of State, especially when tensions are high, can start a war and has before.

If you bring it up you should be aware of one fact: Austria was itching to go to war with Serbia - the assassination of (ironically one of the anti-war propagandist - who was in sarajevo to ease tension...) the archduke was just a convenient scapegoat - the whole farce with the ultimatum should make it obvious.

Very different situation.

[Azadina]

I will leave the what ifs to you, the best way to resolve this is diplomacy not fight until the end.

Is it the same diplomacy Russia was engaged in until the invasion went public, despite the orders to invade having been sent behind the scenes far before that?

That kind of diplomacy? Russian security guarantee sort of diplomacy and deals, perhaps?

[Veggie50]

as hard as it is to still believe, our world has become an openly mad one. We are still in disbelief of the events unfolding even now. Thousands upon thousand of lives lost for no reason.

“My limited intellect can’t fathom what’s happening” too often comes out of peoples mouths as “the world has gone mad”.

[Rustedsaint]

Reuters: Alexei Navalny found "guilty" by a (totes honest, we swear!) Russian court

Not surprisingly, still think it was dumb of him to head back to Russia. He’s gonna die in prison one way or another.

[YUPPIE]

still think it was dumb of him to head back to Russia.

navalny is evil but he genuinely loves his country. He made an impression not going into exile to confront the absolute evil that is Putin.

still surprised Putin hasn't killed him, though. I thought his life was hanging on not drawing attention to it, but with the world so distracted with Ukraine and Russia now beholden to no laws and no morality, Putin could just kill him.

[Poopymonster]

What will happen in the foreseeable future: the sanction toll and civil unrest will be too great for Putin to handle. On top of this, Putin is losing too much in Ukraine. In an attempt to de-escalate the turmoil in his dystopian kingdom, he will launch a nuclear warhead towards Kyiv, killing everyone there. In his country, where information is thoroughly controlled and oppressed, Putin will proclaim to his people that the Ukrainians were attempting to launch a nuke at Russia but failed and destroyed themselves, winning him unanimous support.

After that, Putin will warn the West this is the reality of opposing him and to settle down and restore their economic relations. What ensues after this, I do not know.

But this is what I see happening, without a doubt, with the situation as it is.

Here's an idea. Whenever one of these flights of fancy take you, write it down. There is a nice space dedicated to all sorts of impossible reality variants. You can share your views with others who don't quite have a good grip on reality. They might even be able to help you polish it a bit so it sounds a bit less like a paranoid fourth grader hopped up on coffee and conspiracy theories.

[Gaidax]

Is it the same diplomacy Russia was engaged in until the invasion went public, despite the orders to invade having been sent behind the scenes far before that?

That kind of diplomacy? Russian security guarantee sort of diplomacy and deals, perhaps?

You're dealing with some silly absolutes there.

First of all Russia will have no choice but to get agreement, they literally can't take Ukraine with what they have there now. It's not the same thing like memeing about invasion when forces were still not committed. Here they have committed and stalled, stalemate with Ukraine is not in Russia's interest and they can't do anything else militarily unless they go full SS bombing cities with chemicals.

Ukraine also, despite the fighting, can't really afford having tens of thousands dead and millions displaced. They also would not want to gamble on Putler going full Aleppo on their ass chemical weapons and all. "We will drown them in our own blood" is not really a good plan, despite fiery speeches of necessity.

So yes...

People need to get it through their skulls - Ukraine simply can't beat Russia militarily, they can only force stalemate. Russia on the flipside - still has quite a few options to resort to and you don't want to find out if they are Nazi enough to do so. The only thing that holds them is that they know the moment they do - they are going to be full out cut off for a decade, instead of the half-measures (given the offense) they got now.

So bottom line both sides are 100% interested in negotiations - Ukraine for sure and immediately. Russia - probably wants to grab a few more juicy morsels it actually can like Mariupol, for example and then negotiate.

[Draco-Onis]

Is it the same diplomacy Russia was engaged in until the invasion went public, despite the orders to invade having been sent behind the scenes far before that?

That kind of diplomacy? Russian security guarantee sort of diplomacy and deals, perhaps?

Why would it be? there's more parties involved now and a lot more happened so a deal would need to be more comprehensive. Are you advocating for fighting until the end strategy? What other plan that doesn't involve massive loss of life do you have aside diplomacy?

[Gaidax]

Diplomacy IS the only realistic way out of this.

Every other suggestion and you probably watched too much Avengers, where beating the big bad solves everything. Here's a tip - Cpt. America ain't gonna swoop in to beat that Red Skull and he ain't going anywhere either while this shit is going on.

[Vankrys]

Don't understand why people keep responding to the OP. Writing shit like that should give you a sweater with extra long sleeves, so you can keep hugging yourself.

if you only talk to people who agrees with you, you're not going to talk to a lot of people.

[ati87]

as hard as it is to still believe, our world has become an openly mad one. We are still in disbelief of the events unfolding even now. Thousands upon thousand of lives lost for no reason.

ON what should Ukraine compromise?
EU and NATO membership? I mean after all of what happend?
Acknowledging annexation of Crimea and whatever pro russian separatist has taken over?

Only compromise I can see happening that's a bit realistic is that Ukraine will never be used as a base of attack to invade Russia. And what would Russia compromise?

[YUPPIE]

ON what should Ukraine compromise?
EU and NATO membership? I mean after all of what happend?
Acknowledging annexation of Crimea and whatever pro russian separatist has taken over?

Only compromise I can see happening that's a bit realistic is that Ukraine will never be used as a base of attack to invade Russia. And what would Russia compromise?

Ukraine should compromise nothing considering they were besieged by an evil army for reasons unknown even to the army. It is at the whims of an evil dictator's insatiable greed.

Now, what should Russia compromise, you ask? First off, kill or hand over Putin, because his life is forfeit by default. There is no peace as long as he lives and doesn't face justice in front of the world.

The other...

THERE'S NOTHING THEY CAN AFFORD TO PAY BACK! Let the country collapse for its crimes because that is honestly all they can do now. They don't have the money or resources to undo the damage they have caused. The sanctions will never go away, and their debts are sealed for eternity.

Russia is effectively doomed, now, as an economy and everything. They can only eke out the rest of their days as laboring to reconstruct all the shit they destroyed in Ukraine as a vassal state.

[MCMLXXXII]

if you only talk to people who agrees with you, you're not going to talk to a lot of people.

I don't mind talking to people with different viewpoints but OP is either: 14 years old, mentally disturbed or constant high on drugs.
Or a combination of the three.
The only thing he does is create some weird scenario in his head and then asks us if it's plausible. After more then 12000 posts in this thread, where 99.9% of his questions can be answered by NO, you kind of hope that he learns his lesson and stops asking these ridiculous questions.
/rant

[Gaidax]

ON what should Ukraine compromise?
EU and NATO membership? I mean after all of what happend?
Acknowledging annexation of Crimea and whatever pro russian separatist has taken over?

Only compromise I can see happening that's a bit realistic is that Ukraine will never be used as a base of attack to invade Russia. And what would Russia compromise?

Broski...

First of all NATO is already off the table if you bothered to even check. Zelensky himself said so, because the hard cold truth is that NATO not going to welcome Ukraine as its member in the next decade, if at all.

The rest - there absolutely will be a compromise, because it's Ukraine that has a gun to its head, not other way around. I don't know what that compromise end up looking like, but there will be concessions there.

For example, I am almost sure Crimea will go to Russia proper in some kind of hack deal like land purchase or some such. Ukraine in EU, Russia may concede there and instead have their friends in EU torpedo the whole thing or bog it down like Russian armor north of Kiev.

Donbas is the only think I totally have no idea how will go, because it can go a dozen different ways - plenty of room for negotiations maneuvering there for both sides.

[Azadina]

Why would it be? there's more parties involved now and a lot more happened so a deal would need to be more comprehensive. Are you advocating for fighting until the end strategy? What other plan that doesn't involve massive loss of life do you have aside diplomacy?

Why? Because bad faith diplomacy and deals are all Russia has proven to be capable of. Time and time again. The only difference is what year it happens to be, and which country is the target of their nonsense.

Ukraine drew the short straw this year, as well as in 2014. Who's next?

[Vankrys]

Broski...

First of all NATO is already off the table if you bothered to even check. Zelensky himself said so, because the hard cold truth is that NATO not going to welcome Ukraine as its member in the next decade, if at all.

The rest - there absolutely will be a compromise, because it's Ukraine that has a gun to its head, not other way around. I don't know what that compromise end up looking like, but there will be concessions there.

For example, I am almost sure Crimea will go to Russia proper in some kind of hack deal like land purchase or some such. Ukraine in EU, Russia may concede there and instead have their friends in EU torpedo the whole thing or bog it down like Russian armor north of Kiev.

Donbas is the only think I totally have no idea how will go, because it can go a dozen different ways - plenty of room for negotiations maneuvering there for both sides.

Is it really? I mean, one thing years of watching things happening in the world taught me that just because someone or some organisation said that that particular thing will never happen doesn't mean it will never happen.

Plenty of time i have seen people, countries, organisations, walking back their previous statements or promises. Foreign policy is not about honor or justice, it's about power and how to yield it.

That being said, let's be cynical/analytical for a moment. Why would NATO want Ukraine? Accepting a new country in the alliance is a liability. It means you have to potentially answer the call, expend money, man power and political capital to defend it, it has to be worth it. And Ukraine lives in a very bad neighborhood if you allow me the language. But Ukraine has a great natural ressource potential, oil and gas, largely unexploited, which could help Europe be less dependent on Russia. Ukraine also has the most fertile land of Europe and can really help feed Europe.

So yes, i do think Europe wants Ukraine in its rank, and i won't be surprised at all if NATO walk back its comment and accept Ukraine in the alliance.

[Azadina]

Ukraine should compromise nothing considering they were besieged by an evil army for reasons unknown even to the army. It is at the whims of an evil dictator's insatiable greed.

Now, what should Russia compromise, you ask? First off, kill or hand over Putin, because his life is forfeit by default. There is no peace as long as he lives and doesn't face justice in front of the world.

The other...

THERE'S NOTHING THEY CAN AFFORD TO PAY BACK! Let the country collapse for its crimes because that is honestly all they can do now. They don't have the money or resources to undo the damage they have caused. The sanctions will never go away, and their debts are sealed for eternity.

Russia is effectively doomed, now, as an economy and everything. They can only eke out the rest of their days as laboring to reconstruct all the shit they destroyed in Ukraine as a vassal state.

I've had a terrible day at work, so please give me a hit from whatever that is.

[Draco-Onis]

Why? Because bad faith diplomacy and deals are all Russia has proven to be capable of. Time and time again. The only difference is what year it happens to be, and which country is the target of their nonsense.

Ukraine drew the short straw this year, as well as in 2014. Who's next?

First I said other parties are involved and second you didn't answer the question, what's your plan?

[Veggie50]

Ukraine should compromise nothing considering they were besieged by an evil army for reasons unknown even to the army. It is at the whims of an evil dictator's insatiable greed.

Now, what should Russia compromise, you ask? First off, kill or hand over Putin, because his life is forfeit by default. There is no peace as long as he lives and doesn't face justice in front of the world.

The other...

THERE'S NOTHING THEY CAN AFFORD TO PAY BACK! Let the country collapse for its crimes because that is honestly all they can do now. They don't have the money or resources to undo the damage they have caused. The sanctions will never go away, and their debts are sealed for eternity.

Russia is effectively doomed, now, as an economy and everything. They can only eke out the rest of their days as laboring to reconstruct all the shit they destroyed in Ukraine as a vassal state.

Yeaaaaa no. Reparations haven’t been a thing since WW1, where it was demonstrated how punishing a nation into oblivion works only to radicalize its population.

Always leave a way out to your opponent - art of war

[dextersmith]

Because by the logic of the other person: It wasn't directed at the West, and that we will never go to war over Ukraine's destruction. And he has the threat leverage in that he is evidently not messing around and just showed it.

Such severe sanctions suggests that's not 100% cut and dry.