Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Gaidax]

Of course, verify. It's being widely reported now. But what would be the purpose of such a lie anyway? Some faux de-escalation by Putin?

Meanwhile the Russian foreign ministry just said this: "February 15, 2022 will go down in history as the day Western war propaganda failed. Humiliated and destroyed without a single shot fired."

After all that Russian government is done, last thing you need to do is to rush to trust them blindly on anything they say.

But if it is legit, it just means they ran away with a tail between their legs and that's absolutely fine by me. It will be a blow to Putin overall, but it's his miscalculation there - he overstepped quite a tad.

Either way - he had 2 bad choices to make, so if the report is true and intentions are to withdraw - he chose the less bad option given the situation.

[YUPPIE]

one day left
https://nationalpost.com/pmn/news-pm...u-s-state-dept
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-02-...arus/100829840
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...source=twitter

it's coming

[DarkAmbient]

After all that Russian government is done, last thing you need to do is to rush to trust them blindly on anything they say.

But if it is legit, it just means they ran away with a tail between their legs and that's absolutely fine by me. It will be a blow to Putin overall, but it's his miscalculation there - he overstepped quite a tad.

Either way - he had 2 bad choices to make, so if the report is true and intentions are to withdraw - he chose the less bad option given the situation.

If it's true that Russia is beginning to withdraw, and Putin is framing the whole thing as "LOL we were just doing a training exercise and the stupid West accused us of planning to invade Ukraine!!" then you have to wonder what he thought he would ever get out of this. Did he really think he'd get a promise that Ukraine would never join NATO?

[Gaidax]

If it's true that Russia is beginning to withdraw, and Putin is framing the whole thing as "LOL we were just doing a training exercise and the stupid West accused us of planning to invade Ukraine!!" then you have to wonder what he thought he would ever get out of this. Did he really think he'd get a promise that Ukraine would never join NATO?

He likely expected to get a bunch of concessions and rewards and it still remains to be seen whether he will actually get them. Like always with these things, you can bet there is plenty of back room talks and discussions going on that we don't know of yet.

For example, for all the public chest thumping by Nato - they could have passed assurances that Ukraine is nowhere near joining NATO in the next decade (which is true anyway, really). Or maybe Nord-Stream will get opened sooner than expected, or some sanctions lifted or who knows what else.

Really need to wait a good month or two for dust to settle to see actual results, even if it will settle.

And yes everyone will do the tough badass talk - working the public, but reality is often different. Russia will do "lulz west dumb and paranoid, rekt amateurs, we made them squirm like little biches", while West will be "Little Putie got scared of our amazing unity and toughness, owned".


Now, whether it still was worth it for Russia - I doubt so, but they will sure try to minimize the damage. Even if they withdraw, they can get it all back in place in jiffy.

[hellhamster]

Russia is publishing videos of returning tanks to Russian bases. Might be de escalation, might be a bluff.

I never thought for a second Russia would openly wage war like that. Random skirmishes, yes, but never open conflict. A good ol threat-making to rattle the markets, especially the energy sector was worth it probably.

[YUPPIE]

If it's true that Russia is beginning to withdraw, and Putin is framing the whole thing as "LOL we were just doing a training exercise and the stupid West accused us of planning to invade Ukraine!!" then you have to wonder what he thought he would ever get out of this. Did he really think he'd get a promise that Ukraine would never join NATO?

he's not going to do an "it was a prank man" this time after all this buildup

[Corvus]

he's not going to do an "it was a prank man" this time after all this buildup

He fully expected the West to fold in the face of his build up because he believes they are soft and weak ( but also a threat at the same time.) Instead he got nothing he wanted and worse an increased support for Ukraine and Eastern Europe.

[YUPPIE]

He fully expected the West to fold in the face of his build up because he believes they are soft and weak ( but also a threat at the same time.) Instead he got nothing he wanted and worse an increased support for Ukraine and Eastern Europe.

that is why he will attack. i forgot to mention the navalny character tainting his regime from the inside. I'm surprised he hasn't killed him yet all things considered. He tried famously.

[Belize]

If it's true that Russia is beginning to withdraw, and Putin is framing the whole thing as "LOL we were just doing a training exercise and the stupid West accused us of planning to invade Ukraine!!" then you have to wonder what he thought he would ever get out of this. Did he really think he'd get a promise that Ukraine would never join NATO?

It's pretty clear what he wanted when Russia put out a list of demands from NATO and Europe in general. They are/were trying to use the threat of invading Ukraine to get concessions for free.

For reference I'm talking about that list of demands that included revoking certain protection for NATO members that joined after 1998.

[Jessicka]

he's not going to do an "it was a prank man" this time after all this buildup

Their line has always been "it's just exercises".

I don't think there was ever much risk of invasion, certainly not "full scale", any pretext would be just about tidying up the mess of a civil war that already exists and which NATO would have done nothing.

On the press and propaganda front, it's obviously been used as a distraction from Johnson's troubles in the UK, and the US are always spoiling for a fight so I'm not surprised about the screaming there.

[Shadowferal]

"Pass the salt?"

[ati87]

Russia is publishing videos of returning tanks to Russian bases. Might be de escalation, might be a bluff.

I never thought for a second Russia would openly wage war like that. Random skirmishes, yes, but never open conflict. A good ol threat-making to rattle the markets, especially the energy sector was worth it probably.

And what have they really achieved after spending so much time and effort putting soldiers at the border of Ukraine?
For the current and future governments of Ukraine this is just confirmation that Russia might invade whenever they want which is all of hte confirmation the Ukraine government needs.

For the US this is a perfect moment to increase it's soft power the same for the EU.

SO what has Russia really achieved at this point? Also we can talk about de-escalation the moment Russian forcers go back to there respective bases instead of camping at a the border.

- - - Updated - - -

Their line has always been "it's just exercises".

I don't think there was ever much risk of invasion, certainly not "full scale", any pretext would be just about tidying up the mess of a civil war that already exists and which NATO would have done nothing.

On the press and propaganda front, it's obviously been used as a distraction from Johnson's troubles in the UK, and the US are always spoiling for a fight so I'm not surprised about the screaming there.

And the little green men where just citizens that decided to go and hang out.
You don't go and build up a force at a border of a neighbouring country that is large enough to invade that country as a joke.
Even if you didn't want to invade that country you don't do this kind of shit. Israel started the 6 day war with less justification then what we are seeing with Ukraine and Russia.

[Jessicka]

And the little green men where just citizens that decided to go and hang out.
You don't go and build up a force at a border of a neighbouring country that is large enough to invade that country as a joke.
Even if you didn't want to invade that country you don't do this kind of shit. Israel started the 6 day war with less justification then what we are seeing with Ukraine and Russia.

Except where US and its allies do it all the time around Korea and the South China Sea of course. There's some contention as to whether it was even enough for a 'full scale' invasion, you don't send a force where that contention exists if that's your actual intent. It was, and may yet be (the withdrawal could be just of support units that no longer need to be there), an incursion to annex/support/whatever the land already held in Ukraine by forces loyal to them. Never anything they expected NATO to get too excited about. I shouldn't need to explain to you the difference between the geopolitics of Israel which exists in a perpetual state of war, and Russia rattling sabres and testing the water on its border; and the west's reaction to that as a distraction from domestic issues.

[ati87]

Except where US and its allies do it all the time around Korea and the South China Sea of course. There's some contention as to whether it was even enough for a 'full scale' invasion, you don't send a force where that contention exists if that's your actual intent. It was, and may yet be (the withdrawal could be just of support units that no longer need to be there), an incursion to annex/support/whatever the land already held in Ukraine by forces loyal to them. Never anything they expected NATO to get too excited about. I shouldn't need to explain to you the difference between the geopolitics of Israel which exists in a perpetual state of war, and Russia rattling sabres and testing the water on its border; and the west's reaction to that as a distraction from domestic issues.

THe US forcers located in whatever country is far from a force that is needed to actually protect that country.
Your comparing having a single apple tree in a garden vs a entire vineyard, the US troops at best act as a deterred.

Also do you bloody read what you just wrote?

incursion to annex/support/whatever the land already held in Ukraine by forces loyal to them. Never anything they expected NATO to get too excited about.

SO a invasion or two is fine? As long as it in smalls segments? What a joke argument.

[Vorkreist]

You think everyone else is also going to look in some other direction while it's happening?

What will the west do ? Continue the strongly worded letters? The western alliance is a destabilized mess with most countries having russian influenced right winger blocks while the rest are still unsure if they would support the war on someone invading their own countries let alone other allies.
Germany and others sucking on the gas pipes are a great example. They wouldn't move an inch even if they became bordered with Russia again if it meant some cheap gas contracts.

[Jessicka]

SO a invasion or two is fine? As long as it in smalls segments? What a joke argument.

Was fine last time in Ukraine, Georgia, Chechnya, has been fine for China, America and the UK before. So yeah, just depends on your pretext.

THe US forcers located in whatever country is far from a force that is needed to actually protect that country.
Your comparing having a single apple tree in a garden vs a entire vineyard, the US troops at best act as a deterred.

This is in addition to troops stationed there. NATO run regular exercises around the world, often close to borders of countries considered less than friendly.

[wunksta]

You don't go and build up a force at a border of a neighbouring country that is large enough to invade that country as a joke.

Well it's not a joke, Russia definitely has political reasons why they build up military forces around the borders. But they've sent 100,000~ troops along the borders of Ukraine every couple of years. It's just a political game of posturing, it doesn't mean they are invading.

[Shadowferal]

Hmf...it wouldn't be too surprising if this was all just political theater. (If you're a fellow American then it shouldn't surprise you either)

[ati87]

Well it's not a joke, Russia definitely has political reasons why they build up military forces around the borders. But they've sent 100,000~ troops along the borders of Ukraine every couple of years. It's just a political game of posturing, it doesn't mean they are invading.

Political posturing?
Some people here are honestly the worst.
Political posturing is not when your stationing a force large enough to invade another country, this is what we call a defacto declaration of war.
Again, wars have been started with allot less pretext then what we are seeing now. Ik Ukraine had the strength they would have been justified with a pre-emptive attack.

[Shadowferal]

I'm certain Russia doesn't want a hot war. Ukraine isn't Georgia. And the circumstances weren't so drawn out as they were then.